Fiorentina v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 12
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
15 – 10
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.42
Goals − xG
+0.73 – +0.98
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
50.0%
Draw
24.1%
Torino win
25.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.67–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.21 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 1.27 xGTorino 1.02 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Brescianini |
| 5' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 6' |
 Torino |
Sandro Kulenovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Che Adams |
| 6' |
Torino |
Valentino Lazaro | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 7' |
Fiorentina |
Manor Solomon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 9' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 11' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 25' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Goal | Emirhan Ilkhan |
| 32' |
Fiorentina |
Marco Brescianini | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 33' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 34' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 35' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 36' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 38' |
Fiorentina |
Pietro Comuzzo | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 44' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 46' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 48' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 48' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 49' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 50' |
Fiorentina |
Manor Solomon | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rolando Mandragora |
| 56' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jack Harrison |
| 67' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 76' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Faustino Anjorin |
| 82' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 82' |
Torino |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Che Adams |
| 83' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Saúl Coco |
| 85' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Zakaria Aboukhlal |
| 88' |
Torino |
Faustino Anjorin | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Guillermo Maripán |
| 93' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 95' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cher Ndour |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesare Casadei MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Luca Marianucci DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Che Adams FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.46 |
| Valentino Lazaro DMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Sandro Kulenovic FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan MC | 60 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Rafael Obrador DML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Pedersen Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Giovanni Simeone Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Fabiano Parisi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.77 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.63 |
| Moise Kean FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Manor Solomon AMC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 74 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 0.38 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Albert Gudmundsson AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Cher Ndour Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Luca Ranieri Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |