Fiorentina v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Fiorentina

1–2

1.36 – 0.77 xG

Torino

Shots

14 – 7

On target

5 – 4

Shots in box

10 – 3

xG per shot

0.10 – 0.11

Set-piece xG

0.11 – 0.00

Goals − xG

-0.46 – +1.23

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Fiorentina win

40.3%

Draw

25.8%

Torino win

33.9%

402634

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Torino are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

LDLLWLDWWW last 10 scored 16 from 12.5 xG conceded 15 from 14.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	402634	1.41–1.27	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	482428	1.46–1.05	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	452630	1.50–1.16	1-1 12%	50%	53%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	452630	1.50–1.16	1-1 12%	50%	53%	Home ✗
deep	442630	1.46–1.16	1-1 12%	49%	53%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win	44.1%	43.0%	40.0%	1.07×	2.33
Torino to win	30.0%	27.9%	33.6%	0.83×	3.58
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	26.5%	1.05×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina & not both score	24.1%	21.8%	22.5%	0.97×	4.59
Fiorentina & both teams score	20.0%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Torino & not both score	15.9%	18.0%	20.5%	0.88×	5.57
Torino & both teams score	14.1%	13.3%	13.3%	1.00×	7.53
Draw & not both score	7.3%	8.3%	8.0%	1.05×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina & over 1.5	33.4%	30.8%	29.9%	1.03×	3.25
Fiorentina & under 3.5	31.2%	30.8%	29.6%	1.04×	3.25
Fiorentina & over 2.5	25.7%	26.0%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Torino & under 3.5	22.3%	21.6%	26.3%	0.82×	4.63
Torino & over 1.5	21.6%	21.6%	24.6%	0.88×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.6%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Fiorentina & under 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	16.9%	1.07×	5.56
Torino & over 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	18.1%	1.00×	5.56
Fiorentina & over 3.5	12.9%	12.8%	10.5%	1.22×	7.79
Torino & under 2.5	13.3%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
Fiorentina & under 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	10.2%	1.25×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	8.0%	1.00×	12.63
Torino & under 1.5	8.4%	7.9%	9.2%	0.87×	12.63
Torino & over 3.5	7.6%	7.9%	7.5%	1.06×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	6.9%	1.15×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	6.9%	1.15×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1UP)	59.3%	58.2%	55.3%	1.05×	1.72
Torino (1UP)	47.0%	43.9%	50.5%	0.87×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2UP)	44.1%	47.2%	41.8%	1.13×	2.12
Torino (2UP)	30.0%	25.4%	36.1%	0.70×	3.94

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	37.8%	36.1%	34.9%	1.03×	2.77
2nd half drawn	36.4%	36.0%	35.1%	1.03×	2.78
Torino to win 2nd half	25.8%	25.8%	30.1%	0.86×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.1%	86.8%	85.1%	1.02×	1.15
Torino under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	52.7%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
Torino over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	47.3%	50.0%	0.95×	2.12
Torino over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.9%	13.2%	14.9%	0.88×	7.58

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	75.6%	81.6%	0.93×	1.32
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.5%	58.0%	53.7%	1.08×	1.73
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.5%	42.0%	46.3%	0.91×	2.38
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	24.4%	18.4%	1.32×	4.10

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino (+2.5)	91.7%	92.1%	92.4%	1.00×	1.09
Torino (+1.5)	78.5%	78.5%	82.5%	0.95×	1.27
Fiorentina (+0.5)	70.0%	73.6%	66.4%	1.11×	1.36
Torino (+0.5)	55.9%	57.0%	60.0%	0.95×	1.75
Fiorentina (-0.5)	44.1%	43.0%	40.0%	1.07×	2.33
Torino (-0.5)	30.0%	26.4%	33.6%	0.78×	3.79
Fiorentina (-1.5)	21.5%	21.5%	17.5%	1.23×	4.65
Fiorentina (-2.5)	8.3%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino to concede	76.8%	78.8%	71.7%	1.10×	1.27
Torino clean sheet	23.2%	21.2%	28.3%	0.75×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino clean sheet in 1st half	54.5%	50.7%	58.0%	0.88×	1.97
Torino to concede in 1st half	45.5%	49.3%	42.0%	1.17×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino to concede in 2nd half	57.5%	57.4%	53.7%	1.07×	1.74
Torino clean sheet in 2nd half	42.5%	42.6%	46.3%	0.92×	2.35

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Torino under 2.5 goals	88.8%	87.8%	88.2%	1.00×	1.14
Torino over 0.5 goals	68.6%	68.0%	69.6%	0.98×	1.47
Torino under 1.5 goals	67.8%	68.0%	65.1%	1.04×	1.47
Torino over 1.5 goals	32.2%	32.0%	34.9%	0.92×	3.12
Torino under 0.5 goals	31.4%	32.0%	30.4%	1.05×	3.12
Torino over 2.5 goals	11.2%	12.2%	11.8%	1.03×	8.21
Torino over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.88

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino under 1.5 in 1st half	90.7%	93.8%	90.0%	1.04×	1.07
Torino under 0.5 in 1st half	60.2%	63.2%	58.8%	1.07×	1.58
Torino over 0.5 in 1st half	39.8%	36.8%	41.2%	0.89×	2.72
Torino over 1.5 in 1st half	9.3%	6.2%	10.0%	0.62×	16.26

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino scores equally in both	42.7%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30
Torino scores more in 2nd half	33.2%	33.5%	32.9%	1.02×	2.98
Torino scores more in 1st half	24.1%	22.1%	23.9%	0.93×	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (away no bet)	63.0%	61.9%	60.1%	1.03×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	37.0%	38.1%	39.9%	0.96×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino even goals	54.9%	52.6%	55.5%	0.95×	1.90
Torino odd goals	45.1%	47.4%	44.5%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.4%	87.9%	87.2%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.6%	12.1%	12.8%	0.95×	8.24

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.4%	57.6%	60.1%	0.96×	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.6%	42.4%	39.9%	1.06×	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.6%	51.0%	53.3%	0.96×	1.96
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	35.0%	36.4%	31.7%	1.15×	2.74
Torino to score 2+ in a row	24.3%	19.7%	27.7%	0.71×	5.08
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.3%	17.7%	0.92×	6.14
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	12.0%	12.0%	10.0%	1.20×	8.31
Torino to score 3+ in a row	6.5%	5.6%	7.8%	0.71×	18.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.3%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
1-0	10.6%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.72
0-1	8.4%	7.4%	9.2%	0.81×	13.51
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
0-0	7.3%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
1-2	7.1%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-0	7.8%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.29
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.37×	58.31
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	7.12×	58.32
3-0	3.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.30
3-1	4.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.29
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.03×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.12×	58.32
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.31
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.2%	7.12×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.12×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.12×	58.32
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	59.4%	59.8%	53.7%	1.11×	1.67
Torino (2nd half DNB)	40.6%	40.2%	46.3%	0.87×	2.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	55.7%	56.9%	51.1%	1.11×	1.76
Torino leading at HT (DNB)	44.3%	43.1%	48.9%	0.88×	2.32

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or Torino (12)	74.1%	72.1%	73.5%	0.98×	1.39
Fiorentina or draw (1X)	70.0%	72.1%	66.4%	1.09×	1.39
Torino or draw (X2)	55.9%	57.0%	60.0%	0.95×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw at HT	75.1%	79.0%	72.9%	1.08×	1.27
Torino or draw at HT	68.7%	66.8%	71.7%	0.93×	1.50
Fiorentina or Torino at HT	56.3%	57.1%	55.3%	1.03×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	70.0%	79.4%	71.7%	1.11×	1.26
Torino or draw (1UP)	55.9%	62.9%	65.5%	0.96×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	74.2%	74.2%	69.9%	1.06×	1.35
Fiorentina or Torino in 2nd half	63.6%	64.0%	64.9%	0.98×	1.56
Torino or draw in 2nd half	62.2%	63.9%	65.1%	0.98×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.2%	61.6%	63.6%	0.97×	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.8%	38.4%	36.4%	1.06×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (DNB)	59.5%	58.1%	54.3%	1.07×	1.72
Torino (DNB)	40.5%	41.9%	45.7%	0.92×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score first	51.7%	53.2%	48.6%	1.10×	1.88
Torino to score first	41.0%	41.6%	43.6%	0.95×	2.40
No goal scored	7.3%	7.5%	8.0%	0.94×	13.41

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.7%	51.3%	49.3%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.3%	48.7%	50.7%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.4%	41.6%	37.5%	1.11×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	39.0%	38.4%	40.2%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.3%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.3%	8.3%	10.6%	0.78×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.2%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.8%	14.4%	13.5%	1.07×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.5%	73.9%	74.8%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.5%	26.1%	25.2%	1.04×	3.83

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.4%	60.1%	62.7%	0.96×	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	22.5%	21.2%	20.4%	1.04×	4.72
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	10.7%	12.3%	0.87×	9.37
Both score in both halves	5.0%	5.0%	4.9%	1.01×	20.00

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.9%	83.2%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.1%	16.8%	17.1%	0.98×	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.3%	52.7%	52.7%	1.00×	1.90
A half without a goal	47.7%	47.3%	47.3%	1.00×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.4%	26.6%	27.1%	0.98×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.1%	26.6%	23.7%	1.12×	3.76
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	1.0%	1.91×	54.33

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.9%	34.8%	1.03×	2.78
Torino to score exactly 0	31.4%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.96
Torino to score exactly 2	21.1%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.49
Torino to score 3+	11.2%	12.9%	11.8%	1.09×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	33.9%	32.6%	32.2%	1.01×	3.07
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	24.8%	23.3%	24.8%	0.94×	4.29
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	23.2%	23.3%	28.3%	0.82×	4.29
Fiorentina to score 3+	18.2%	18.8%	14.9%	1.26×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.7%	42.9%	44.7%	0.96×	2.33
Fiorentina leading at HT	31.3%	33.2%	28.3%	1.17×	3.02
Torino leading at HT	25.0%	21.0%	27.1%	0.77×	4.77

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina -1: 2	55.9%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Fiorentina -1: X	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Fiorentina -1: 1	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino (0:1)	55.9%	55.8%	60.0%	0.93×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.6%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13
Fiorentina (0:1)	21.5%	24.2%	17.5%	1.39×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino (0:2)	78.5%	79.4%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.2%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.10
Fiorentina (0:2)	8.3%	7.7%	7.6%	1.01×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino (0:3)	91.7%	92.7%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.7%	5.8%	4.7%	1.23×	17.23
Fiorentina (0:3)	2.6%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino (0:4)	97.4%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	2.2%	0.56×	81.89
Fiorentina (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.26×	82.03

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1:0)	70.0%	72.3%	66.4%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.9%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.85
Torino (1:0)	12.1%	12.7%	14.3%	0.89×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2:0)	87.9%	88.5%	85.7%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.3%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.67
Torino (2:0)	3.8%	2.3%	5.8%	0.40×	43.59

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.2%	48.6%	46.1%	1.05×	2.06
1st half highest scoring	28.1%	26.2%	27.0%	0.97×	3.81
Halves equal	25.7%	26.2%	27.0%	0.97×	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	68.6%	66.7%	69.6%	0.96×	1.50
Fiorentina clean sheet	31.4%	33.3%	30.4%	1.10×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	60.2%	63.1%	58.8%	1.07×	1.58
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	39.8%	36.9%	41.2%	0.90×	2.71

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	52.2%	52.9%	50.0%	1.06×	1.89
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	47.8%	47.1%	50.0%	0.94×	2.12

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	93.9%	92.2%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	81.8%	82.2%	85.1%	0.97×	1.22
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	76.8%	77.7%	71.7%	1.08×	1.29
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	57.1%	58.6%	60.4%	0.97×	1.71
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	42.9%	41.4%	39.6%	1.04×	2.42
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	23.2%	22.3%	28.3%	0.79×	4.49
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	18.2%	17.8%	14.9%	1.19×	5.62
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	6.1%	7.8%	4.6%	1.69×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	87.6%	90.3%	89.3%	1.01×	1.11
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	54.5%	50.5%	58.0%	0.87×	1.98
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	45.5%	49.5%	42.0%	1.18×	2.02
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	12.4%	9.7%	10.7%	0.91×	10.26

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	38.9%	37.9%	36.1%	1.05×	2.64
Fiorentina scores equally in both	36.9%	37.9%	41.7%	0.91×	2.64
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	24.2%	21.2%	22.3%	0.95×	4.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino (home no bet)	53.6%	51.4%	55.9%	0.92×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	46.4%	48.6%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	52.7%	50.7%	56.1%	0.90×	1.97
Fiorentina odd goals	47.3%	49.3%	43.9%	1.12×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.8%	33.4%	33.9%	0.99×	2.99
HT 1-0	19.9%	18.7%	18.3%	1.02×	5.36
HT 0-1	16.7%	18.6%	18.2%	1.02×	5.38
HT 1-1	10.1%	10.9%	10.4%	1.05×	9.15
HT 2-0	6.0%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.43
HT 0-2	4.2%	2.4%	5.3%	0.45×	41.98
Any other HT score	3.8%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	42.01
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.06
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.4%	2.7%	0.90×	42.09
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.21

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	24.9%	21.8%	21.9%	1.00×	4.58
Torino at HT / Torino at FT	17.0%	16.7%	19.0%	0.88×	5.98
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	16.5%	16.7%	15.9%	1.05×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.9%	16.7%	16.1%	1.04×	5.98
Draw at HT / Torino at FT	11.3%	12.6%	12.9%	0.98×	7.92
Torino at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.68
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.58
Torino at HT / Fiorentina at FT	2.7%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.65
Fiorentina at HT / Torino at FT	1.7%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score last	51.7%	52.0%	48.2%	1.08×	1.92
Torino to score last	41.0%	39.9%	44.0%	0.91×	2.50
No goal scored	7.3%	7.5%	8.0%	0.94×	13.41

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.7%	92.6%	92.0%	1.01×	1.08
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	59.3%	54.9%	55.3%	0.99×	1.82
Torino to lead by 1 at any time	47.0%	44.5%	50.5%	0.88×	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.7%	39.2%	43.5%	0.90×	2.55
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	27.6%	25.5%	23.9%	1.07×	3.92
Torino to lead by 2 at any time	17.3%	15.0%	20.1%	0.74×	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.3%	14.9%	14.9%	1.00×	6.70
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	10.2%	10.4%	8.7%	1.20×	9.60
Torino to lead by 3 at any time	5.1%	6.7%	6.4%	1.04×	15.01

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.2%	83.4%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.9%	72.4%	72.0%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.6%	68.8%	70.0%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.9%	68.8%	67.6%	1.02×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	46.9%	48.5%	47.1%	1.03×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.1%	43.6%	44.2%	0.99×	2.29
3-5 goals	43.6%	43.6%	45.1%	0.97×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.1%	39.2%	36.6%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.1%	30.2%	23.7%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	21.8%	24.5%	21.7%	1.13×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.8%	14.8%	10.6%	1.40×	6.75
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	1.0%	2.65×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina never behind	45.7%	56.4%	49.5%	1.14×	1.77
Torino never behind	33.4%	36.3%	44.7%	0.81×	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.4%	57.6%	56.6%	1.02×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.6%	42.4%	43.4%	0.98×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.9%	50.7%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.1%	49.3%	0.98×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.5%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	73.6%	72.5%	72.9%	0.99×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	73.2%	72.5%	75.4%	0.96×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.3%	52.5%	52.0%	1.01×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	48.7%	47.5%	48.0%	0.99×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26.8%	27.5%	24.6%	1.12×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	26.4%	27.5%	27.1%	1.02×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.5%	12.4%	11.4%	1.08×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	8.0%	0.97×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	3.0%	2.56×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.2%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.5%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.4%	86.7%	86.8%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.7%	67.4%	67.9%	0.99×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	64.9%	62.0%	63.9%	0.97×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	35.1%	38.0%	36.1%	1.05×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.3%	32.6%	32.1%	1.02×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.6%	13.3%	13.2%	1.01×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.5%	7.6%	3.3%	2.31×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.8%	2.8%	1.0%	2.85×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.7%	89.2%	91.2%	0.98×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.4%	68.5%	70.1%	0.98×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.2%	68.4%	66.1%	1.03×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.6%	33.9%	0.93×	3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.6%	31.5%	29.9%	1.05×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.8%	8.8%	1.22×	9.29

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	83.3%	82.5%	1.01×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.8%	79.2%	78.6%	1.01×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.6%	54.8%	57.0%	0.96×	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.4%	45.2%	43.0%	1.05×	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.2%	20.8%	21.4%	0.97×	4.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	16.7%	17.5%	0.96×	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino not to score in both halves	81.0%	84.3%	78.4%	1.07×	1.19
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	73.9%	74.0%	75.9%	0.97×	1.35
Fiorentina to score in both halves	26.1%	26.0%	24.1%	1.08×	3.84
Torino to score in both halves	19.1%	15.7%	21.6%	0.73×	6.35

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.7%	53.8%	49.3%	1.09×	1.86
Only Fiorentina scores	24.1%	22.3%	22.5%	0.99×	4.49
Only Torino scores	15.9%	16.0%	20.5%	0.78×	6.25
Neither team scores	7.3%	7.1%	8.0%	0.90×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.0%	22.6%	25.1%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.1%	17.5%	19.3%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.3%	12.1%	13.3%	0.92×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	7.5%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	7.3%	7.6%	8.0%	0.96×	13.13
6 or more goals	5.0%	7.6%	3.0%	2.53×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.3%	36.4%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	32.8%	35.9%	33.9%	1.06×	2.78
2 goals in 1st half	20.4%	21.5%	21.2%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	10.3%	10.7%	8.8%	1.21×	9.36

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.4%	45.3%	43.0%	1.05×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	33.4%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	22.2%	22.9%	21.4%	1.07×	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino not to win both halves	93.6%	94.1%	91.2%	1.03×	1.06
Fiorentina not to win both halves	88.2%	88.0%	90.0%	0.98×	1.14
Fiorentina to win both halves	11.8%	12.0%	10.0%	1.20×	8.32
Torino to win both halves	6.4%	5.9%	8.8%	0.67×	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win either half	57.3%	59.1%	53.3%	1.11×	1.69
Torino to win neither half	55.7%	59.0%	51.6%	1.14×	1.69
Torino to win either half	44.3%	41.0%	48.4%	0.85×	2.44
Fiorentina to win neither half	42.7%	40.9%	46.7%	0.88×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Torino not to win to nil	84.1%	83.1%	79.5%	1.05×	1.20
Fiorentina not to win to nil	75.9%	78.1%	77.5%	1.01×	1.28
Fiorentina to win to nil	24.1%	21.9%	22.5%	0.97×	4.57
Torino to win to nil	15.9%	16.9%	20.5%	0.82×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	26.5%	1.05×	3.59
Fiorentina by 1	22.6%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Torino by 1	17.9%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.87
Fiorentina by 2	13.2%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.51
Torino by 2	8.3%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.90
Fiorentina by 3+	8.3%	7.2%	7.6%	0.95×	13.90
Torino by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	5.8%	0.47×	36.79

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Fiorentina 1.46 xGTorino 0.77 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Fiorentina attacking right Torino attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
1'	Fiorentina	Alieu Njie	0.29	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
1'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.32	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
3'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Alieu Njie
11'	Torino	Rolando Mandragora	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Kian Fitz-Jim
14'	Torino	Nikola Vlasic	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Rolando Mandragora
21'	Torino	Niccolò Fortini	0.05	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Alessio Cacciamani
26'	Torino	Rolando Mandragora	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Che Adams
45'	Fiorentina	Nicolo Fagioli	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Alieu Njie
46'	Fiorentina	Mateo Pellegrino	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Radu Dragusin
50'	Fiorentina	Wilfried Gnonto	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Cher Ndour
51'	Fiorentina	Arthur Atta	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Alieu Njie
51'	Fiorentina	Wilfried Gnonto	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Arthur Atta
58'	Fiorentina	Arthur Atta	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
60'	Fiorentina	Arthur Atta	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
65'	Fiorentina	Arthur Atta	0.10	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	João Mário
65'	Fiorentina	Wilfried Gnonto	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Alieu Njie
71'	Torino	Nikola Vlasic	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Giovanni Simeone
73'	Torino	Rolando Mandragora	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Eray Cömert
75'	Fiorentina	Radu Dragusin	0.11	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Nicolo Fagioli
77'	Fiorentina	Beto	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
81'	Torino	Che Adams	0.54	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Rafik Belghali

Players

Torino

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Che Adams FW	90	1	0	1	1	0.54	0.04	0.60
Nikola Vlasic FW	90	0	0	2	0	0.10	0.00	0.17
Rolando Mandragora DMC	90	1	0	3	1	0.08	0.02	0.16
Kian Fitz-Jim MC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.07
Lucas Perri GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Eray Cömert DC	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.14
Pietro Comuzzo DC	74	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.07
Gvidas Gineitis MC	74	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Niccolò Fortini MR	60	0	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.12
Alessio Cacciamani ML	60	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.05	0.07
Ardian Ismajli Sub	51	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Saúl Coco DC	39	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.07
Rafik Belghali Sub	30	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.54	0.62
Nathan Patterson Sub	30	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Giovanni Simeone Sub	16	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.08	0.08
Daniel Bragança Sub	16	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Fiorentina

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Radu Dragusin DC	90	0	1	1	1	0.11	0.05	0.37
Nicolo Fagioli MC	90	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.11	0.18
David de Gea GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.07
João Mário DR	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.10	0.34
Valde DL	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.17
Viery DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.17
Alieu Njie FWL	83	0	0	1	4	0.29	0.25	0.54
Mateo Pellegrino FW	80	1	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.43
Cher Ndour Sub	67	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.21
Franco Mastantuono FWR	50	0	0	2	0	0.39	0.00	0.39
Marco Brescianini MC	50	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Arthur Atta Sub	40	0	0	4	1	0.35	0.07	0.49
Wilfried Gnonto Sub	40	0	0	3	0	0.18	0.00	0.18
Christ Inao Oulaï MC	23	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Beto Sub	10	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.06
Pote Sub	7	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Fiorentina v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Torino

Fiorentina

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