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Fiorentina v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 23 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–2
1.56 – 0.86 xG
Shots
14 – 11
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.94 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-0.57 – +1.14
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Moise Kean 7' — goalLorenzo Lucca 48' — goalFlorian Thauvin 56' — goal
Fiorentina 1.57 xGUdinese 0.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Moise Kean 7' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 22' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Luca Ranieri 27' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jordan Zemura 31' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 39' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 45' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Riccardo Sottil 46' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Sottil 46' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Lucca 47' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Lorenzo Lucca 48' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Lucca 50' — Shot On Post (0.12 xG, From Corner)Andrea Colpani 54' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 54' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 56' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yacine Adli 58' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 68' — Shot On Post (0.07 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 70' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Arthur Atta 71' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Christian Kouamé 73' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Kingsley Ehizibue 82' — Missed Shot (0.25 xG, Open Play)Danilo Cataldi 84' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Christian Kouamé 85' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Ikone 87' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 93' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Moise Kean 96' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)
Fiorentina attacking right Udinese attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.76 Right Foot Goal
22' Udinese Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Souleymane Isaak Touré
27' Fiorentina Luca Ranieri 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Danilo Cataldi
31' Udinese Jordan Zemura 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Florian Thauvin
39' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Florian Thauvin
45' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot
46' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Moise Kean
46' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
47' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.06 Set Piece Missed Shot Christian Kabasele
48' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
50' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.12 From Corner Right Foot Shot On Post Thomas Thiesson Kristensen
54' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
54' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Danilo Cataldi
56' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Goal Sandi Lovric
58' Fiorentina Yacine Adli 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
68' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Danilo Cataldi
70' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
71' Udinese Arthur Atta 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jesper Karlström
73' Fiorentina Christian Kouamé 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot Rolando Mandragora
82' Udinese Kingsley Ehizibue 0.25 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Florian Thauvin
84' Fiorentina Danilo Cataldi 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
85' Fiorentina Christian Kouamé 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Albert Gudmundsson
87' Fiorentina Jonathan Ikone 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Moise Kean
93' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
96' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Albert Gudmundsson

Players

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Moise Kean FW 90 1 0 4 2 1.01 0.23 0.43
Luca Ranieri DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.12
Danilo Cataldi DMC 90 0 0 1 3 0.01 0.20 0.20
Robin Gosens DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Pietro Comuzzo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
David de Gea GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Michael Kayode DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Riccardo Sottil AML 74 0 0 2 0 0.22 0.00 0.34
Andrea Colpani AMR 74 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.07
Yacine Adli DMC 66 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.14
Lucas Beltrán AMC 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rolando Mandragora Sub 24 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Albert Gudmundsson Sub 24 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.15 0.00
Jonathan Ikone Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Christian Kouamé Sub 16 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.02
Fabiano Parisi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lorenzo Lucca FW 90 1 0 3 0 0.26 0.00 0.09
Kingsley Ehizibue DMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.25 0.00 0.25
Florian Thauvin FW 90 1 0 2 3 0.13 0.39 0.52
Jordan Zemura DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.13
Sandi Lovric MC 90 0 1 2 1 0.09 0.03 0.08
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.25
Jesper Karlström MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.16
Christian Kabasele DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.04
Razvan Sava GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC 71 0 1 1 1 0.02 0.09 0.09
Souleymane Isaak Touré DC 50 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.00
James Abankwah Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Arthur Atta Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Rui Modesto Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Iker Bravo Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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