Fiorentina v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 11
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.53 – 0.40
Goals − xG
+1.71 – +0.21
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
42.1%
Draw
29.8%
Udinese win
28.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLLLWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.6 xG
conceded 18
from 17.2 xG
Udinese are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–1.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.29 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 3.29 xGUdinese 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Udinese |
Christian Kabasele | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Bertola |
| 6' |
 Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 11' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 12' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 14' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 19' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 20' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.17 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 27' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cher Ndour |
| 29' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luca Ranieri |
| 31' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 37' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 41' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fabiano Parisi |
| 44' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 47' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jakub Piotrowski |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.28 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 49' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 50' |
Udinese |
Nicolò Bertola | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 53' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 55' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 55' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.78 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 65' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jakub Piotrowski |
| 67' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dodô |
| 74' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 75' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.28 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 84' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Sandi Lovric |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cher Ndour ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.07 | 1.07 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 1.11 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Luca Ranieri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.23 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.95 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 88 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.10 | 0.99 | 1.11 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| Moise Kean FW | 77 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1.74 | 0.00 | 1.74 |
| Fabiano Parisi MR | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 2.22 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 59 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Niccolò Fortini Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kouamé Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mattia Viti Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Bertola DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Razvan Sava Sub | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo AMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Hassane Kamara Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Sandi Lovric Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |