Flamengo v Athletico-PR — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 18 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Flamengo

20:00 UTC

Athletico-PR

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 561h before kick-off

Flamengo win

60.6%

model 63.8%

Draw

21.6%

model 21.1%

Athletico-PR win

17.8%

model 15.0%

612218

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 10.1%
1-1 9.9%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 8.4%
3-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.2%	Under 2.5	38.8%
BTTS yes	56.3%	BTTS no	43.7%
Flamengo 1+	88.7%	Flamengo 2+	64.0%
Athletico-PR 1+	62.5%	Athletico-PR 2+	25.7%

Expected goals 2.18 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Flamengo over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 46%

62.8% fair odds 1.59

strong signal · 918 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Athletico-PR not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Flamengo carry the stronger rating, 1779 Elo against 1621.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Flamengo have an estimated 60.6% win probability, against 21.6% for the draw and 17.8% for Athletico-PR. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.18 for Flamengo and 0.98 for Athletico-PR.

Why Flamengo

Flamengo carry the stronger rating, 1779 Elo against 1621. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Athletico-PR can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Flamengo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Athletico-PR, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Flamengo: 56% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Athletico-PR: 43% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 21.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Flamengo's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Flamengo are the model's most likely outcome at 60.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.1%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	642115	2.18–0.98	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	622215	2.02–0.91	2-0 11%	56%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win	62.3%	58.2%	48.9%	1.19×	1.72
Draw	22.5%	24.5%	27.3%	0.90×	4.09
Athletico-PR to win	15.2%	19.4%	24.0%	0.81×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo & not both score	34.0%	29.6%	28.1%	1.05×	3.38
Flamengo & both teams score	28.2%	25.2%	21.0%	1.20×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.3%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.57
Athletico-PR & both teams score	8.2%	8.3%	10.3%	0.81×	12.00
Athletico-PR & not both score	7.0%	8.3%	13.8%	0.60×	12.00
Draw & not both score	6.2%	8.3%	6.7%	1.25×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo & over 1.5	52.4%	48.8%	36.7%	1.33×	2.05
Flamengo & over 2.5	41.5%	40.3%	27.5%	1.47×	2.48
Flamengo & under 3.5	38.0%	34.9%	36.8%	0.95×	2.87
Flamengo & over 3.5	24.2%	21.6%	12.2%	1.77×	4.63
Flamengo & under 2.5	20.8%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	16.9%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.9%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.3%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.56
Athletico-PR & over 1.5	11.3%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.79
Athletico-PR & under 3.5	11.3%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
Flamengo & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.62
Athletico-PR & over 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	6.7%	1.19×	12.63
Athletico-PR & under 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Athletico-PR & under 1.5	4.0%	4.8%	7.0%	0.69×	20.82
Athletico-PR & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (1UP)	74.3%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Athletico-PR (1UP)	33.2%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (2UP)	62.3%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Athletico-PR (2UP)	15.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win 2nd half	50.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
2nd half drawn	32.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Athletico-PR to win 2nd half	17.2%	17.8%	—	—	5.61

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.6%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Athletico-PR under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.9%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Athletico-PR over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.1%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Athletico-PR over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.4%	12.8%	—	—	7.84

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Flamengo under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Flamengo over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Flamengo under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (+0.5)	84.8%	82.6%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Athletico-PR (+2.5)	80.4%	82.6%	90.8%	0.91×	1.21
Flamengo (-0.5)	62.3%	62.9%	48.9%	1.29×	1.59
Athletico-PR (+1.5)	61.1%	62.9%	76.8%	0.82×	1.59
Flamengo (-1.5)	38.9%	37.1%	23.2%	1.60×	2.70
Athletico-PR (+0.5)	37.7%	37.1%	51.1%	0.73×	2.70
Flamengo (-2.5)	19.6%	17.4%	9.2%	1.89×	5.73
Athletico-PR (-0.5)	15.2%	17.4%	24.0%	0.73×	5.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to concede	86.7%	86.3%	79.7%	1.08×	1.16
Athletico-PR clean sheet	13.3%	13.7%	20.3%	0.68×	7.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to concede in 1st half	58.1%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Athletico-PR clean sheet in 1st half	41.9%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to concede in 2nd half	68.4%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Athletico-PR clean sheet in 2nd half	31.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR under 6.5 corners	87.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Athletico-PR under 5.5 corners	80.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Athletico-PR under 4.5 corners	68.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Athletico-PR over 2.5 corners	64.1%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Athletico-PR under 3.5 corners	53.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Athletico-PR over 3.5 corners	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Athletico-PR under 2.5 corners	35.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Athletico-PR over 4.5 corners	31.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Athletico-PR over 5.5 corners	20.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Athletico-PR over 6.5 corners	12.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Athletico-PR under 2.5 goals	93.5%	92.4%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Athletico-PR under 1.5 goals	76.9%	76.2%	71.9%	1.06×	1.31
Athletico-PR over 0.5 goals	59.7%	59.5%	65.4%	0.91×	1.68
Athletico-PR under 0.5 goals	40.3%	40.6%	34.6%	1.17×	2.47
Athletico-PR over 1.5 goals	23.1%	23.8%	28.1%	0.85×	4.21
Athletico-PR over 2.5 goals	6.5%	7.6%	9.2%	0.83×	13.08
Athletico-PR over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.5%	2.1%	1.21×	39.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Athletico-PR under 0.5 in 1st half	69.5%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Athletico-PR over 0.5 in 1st half	30.5%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
Athletico-PR over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.68

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR scores equally in both	48.7%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Athletico-PR scores more in 2nd half	32.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Athletico-PR scores more in 1st half	19.4%	18.2%	—	—	5.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (away no bet)	73.5%	68.4%	64.2%	1.07×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.5%	31.6%	35.8%	0.88×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR even goals	58.1%	56.9%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
Athletico-PR odd goals	41.9%	43.1%	45.1%	0.96×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.7%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.4%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Flamengo to score 2+ in a row	52.7%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.4%	25.0%	—	—	4.01
Flamengo to score 3+ in a row	24.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Athletico-PR to score 2+ in a row	15.3%	16.1%	—	—	6.21
Athletico-PR to score 3+ in a row	3.0%	2.6%	—	—	39.13

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo corners (+3.5)	93.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Flamengo corners (+2.5)	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Flamengo corners (+1.5)	84.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Athletico-PR corners (+3.5)	59.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Flamengo corners (-1.5)	59.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Athletico-PR corners (+2.5)	50.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Flamengo corners (-2.5)	49.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Athletico-PR corners (+1.5)	40.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Flamengo corners (-3.5)	40.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Athletico-PR corners (-1.5)	15.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Athletico-PR corners (-2.5)	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Athletico-PR corners (-3.5)	6.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	69.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	67.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	30.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	25.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.7%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.72
2-0	10.9%	11.5%	9.4%	1.23×	8.72
1-0	9.9%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.51
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
3-0	7.3%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.51
3-1	6.7%	7.4%	4.0%	1.87×	13.51
0-0	6.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
Any other score	5.7%	7.4%	2.5%	2.91×	13.51
0-1	4.0%	1.7%	7.0%	0.25×	58.30
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.32
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.29
1-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.29
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	3.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.30
4-1	3.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
4-2	1.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (2nd half DNB)	74.6%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Athletico-PR (2nd half DNB)	25.4%	28.2%	—	—	3.54

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo leading at HT (DNB)	75.8%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Athletico-PR leading at HT (DNB)	24.2%	25.1%	—	—	3.99

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw (1X)	84.8%	80.6%	76.0%	1.06×	1.24
Flamengo or Athletico-PR (12)	77.5%	75.5%	72.7%	1.04×	1.32
Athletico-PR or draw (X2)	37.7%	41.8%	51.1%	0.82×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw at HT	85.4%	88.1%	—	—	1.13
Flamengo or Athletico-PR at HT	60.6%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Athletico-PR or draw at HT	54.1%	48.6%	—	—	2.06

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw (1UP)	84.8%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Athletico-PR or draw (1UP)	37.7%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw in 2nd half	82.8%	82.2%	—	—	1.22
Flamengo or Athletico-PR in 2nd half	67.6%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Athletico-PR or draw in 2nd half	49.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.0%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	42.0%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (DNB)	80.3%	80.3%	67.1%	1.20×	1.25
Athletico-PR (DNB)	19.7%	19.7%	32.9%	0.60×	5.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score first	64.7%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Athletico-PR to score first	29.1%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.28

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.7%	51.3%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.3%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.0%	41.6%	38.3%	1.09×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	33.2%	34.6%	38.9%	0.89×	2.89
Not both score & over 2.5	14.1%	12.4%	9.5%	1.30×	8.08
Both score & under 2.5	10.7%	12.4%	13.7%	0.91×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.1%	85.6%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.9%	14.4%	12.9%	1.12×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.9%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.1%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	24.0%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.85

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.1%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.9%	16.6%	—	—	6.02

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.3%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	41.7%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.2%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
4-6 goals	30.7%	30.7%	24.3%	1.26×	3.26
0-1 goals	20.1%	22.9%	25.7%	0.89×	4.37
7+ goals	3.0%	1.8%	0.6%	2.90×	54.26

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to score exactly 0	40.3%	37.3%	34.6%	1.08×	2.68
Athletico-PR to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Athletico-PR to score exactly 2	16.7%	19.5%	19.0%	1.03×	5.12
Athletico-PR to score 3+	6.5%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score 3+	32.9%	32.6%	18.6%	1.75×	3.07
Flamengo to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.6%	27.1%	0.98×	3.77
Flamengo to score exactly 1	26.8%	26.6%	34.3%	0.77×	3.77
Flamengo to score exactly 0	13.3%	14.3%	20.3%	0.70×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo leading at HT	45.9%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Draw at HT	39.4%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
Athletico-PR leading at HT	14.6%	11.9%	—	—	8.44

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo -1: 1	38.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Flamengo -1: 2	37.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Flamengo -1: X	23.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:1)	38.9%	37.4%	23.2%	1.61×	2.68
Athletico-PR (0:1)	37.7%	37.4%	51.1%	0.73×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.4%	24.2%	25.9%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (0:2)	61.1%	67.0%	76.8%	0.87×	1.49
Flamengo (0:2)	19.6%	15.3%	9.2%	1.66×	6.55
Draw (0:2)	19.3%	15.3%	14.1%	1.08×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (0:3)	80.4%	85.3%	90.8%	0.94×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.4%	9.9%	6.7%	1.48×	10.13
Flamengo (0:3)	8.2%	5.8%	2.7%	2.15×	17.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (0:4)	91.8%	94.5%	97.3%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.3%	4.6%	1.7%	2.64×	21.71
Flamengo (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.58

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (1:0)	84.8%	81.5%	76.0%	1.07×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.0%	12.7%	14.6%	0.87×	7.88
Athletico-PR (1:0)	5.2%	6.9%	9.5%	0.72×	14.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (2:0)	94.8%	94.0%	90.5%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	3.9%	2.3%	6.2%	0.37×	43.68
Athletico-PR (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	43.84

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.5%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	25.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to concede	59.7%	60.7%	65.4%	0.93×	1.65
Flamengo clean sheet	40.3%	39.3%	34.6%	1.14×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo clean sheet in 1st half	69.5%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Flamengo to concede in 1st half	30.5%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo clean sheet in 2nd half	57.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Flamengo to concede in 2nd half	42.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo over 2.5 corners	87.8%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Flamengo over 3.5 corners	77.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Flamengo over 4.5 corners	66.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Flamengo under 6.5 corners	57.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Flamengo over 5.5 corners	54.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Flamengo under 5.5 corners	45.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Flamengo over 6.5 corners	42.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Flamengo under 4.5 corners	33.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Flamengo under 3.5 corners	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Flamengo under 2.5 corners	12.2%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo over 0.5 goals	86.7%	87.3%	79.7%	1.10×	1.15
Flamengo under 3.5 goals	85.4%	87.3%	94.3%	0.93×	1.15
Flamengo under 2.5 goals	67.1%	67.9%	81.4%	0.83×	1.47
Flamengo over 1.5 goals	60.0%	58.7%	45.6%	1.29×	1.70
Flamengo under 1.5 goals	40.0%	41.3%	54.4%	0.76×	2.42
Flamengo over 2.5 goals	32.9%	32.1%	18.6%	1.73×	3.12
Flamengo over 3.5 goals	14.6%	12.7%	5.7%	2.23×	7.85
Flamengo under 0.5 goals	13.3%	12.7%	20.3%	0.63×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 1.5 in 1st half	78.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Flamengo over 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Flamengo under 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Flamengo over 1.5 in 1st half	21.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo scores more in 2nd half	42.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Flamengo scores equally in both	30.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Flamengo scores more in 1st half	27.5%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.6%	56.4%	53.3%	1.06×	1.77
Athletico-PR (home no bet)	40.4%	43.6%	46.7%	0.93×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo even goals	50.9%	50.7%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Flamengo odd goals	49.1%	49.3%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	25.2%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
HT 2-0	11.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 0-1	10.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 1-1	9.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
Any other HT score	6.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.56
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.14
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.28
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo at HT / Flamengo at FT	40.0%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
Draw at HT / Flamengo at FT	19.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Athletico-PR at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	7.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.47
Draw at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	6.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.51
Flamengo at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Athletico-PR at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Athletico-PR at HT / Flamengo at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Flamengo at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.97

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score last	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Athletico-PR to score last	29.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.28

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.8%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Flamengo to lead by 1 at any time	74.3%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.3%	50.6%	—	—	1.97
Flamengo to lead by 2 at any time	45.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Athletico-PR to lead by 1 at any time	33.2%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Flamengo to lead by 3 at any time	22.5%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Athletico-PR to lead by 2 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.96
Athletico-PR to lead by 3 at any time	2.1%	1.6%	—	—	63.22

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo most corners	69.3%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Athletico-PR most corners	22.2%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	8.6%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.9%	78.7%	73.8%	1.07×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.5%	78.7%	81.7%	0.96×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.3%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.6%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.1%	63.3%	68.7%	0.92×	1.58
3-6 goals	53.1%	53.2%	47.1%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.4%	48.4%	43.0%	1.13×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.2%	48.4%	49.7%	0.98×	2.06
3-4 goals	38.8%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.7%	39.2%	45.9%	0.85×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.7%	35.2%	24.3%	1.45×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.0%	30.2%	20.2%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.3%	14.8%	11.3%	1.31×	6.75
7+ goals	3.0%	2.6%	0.6%	4.02×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo never behind	60.6%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Athletico-PR never behind	19.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.1%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.9%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.6%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	95.2%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.7%	82.3%	88.3%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.9%	77.3%	74.3%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	66.3%	66.3%	75.2%	0.88×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.1%	58.6%	47.6%	1.23×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	43.9%	41.4%	52.4%	0.79×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	33.7%	33.7%	24.8%	1.36×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	20.1%	22.7%	25.7%	0.88×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	17.3%	17.7%	11.7%	1.51×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	4.8%	1.62×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.9%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.5%	92.4%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.3%	75.9%	86.5%	0.88×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.6%	72.4%	64.9%	1.11×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.6%	55.8%	67.9%	0.82×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.4%	44.2%	32.1%	1.38×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.4%	27.6%	35.1%	0.79×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.7%	24.1%	13.5%	1.78×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.5%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.1%	2.8%	0.7%	4.24×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.2%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.7%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.9%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.1%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.3%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.10

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.4%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.8%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.2%	20.5%	—	—	4.87
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR not to score in both halves	87.2%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Flamengo not to score in both halves	60.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Flamengo to score in both halves	39.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Athletico-PR to score in both halves	12.8%	14.4%	—	—	6.94

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.7%	53.8%	51.7%	1.04×	1.86
Only Flamengo scores	34.0%	33.3%	28.1%	1.19×	3.00
Only Athletico-PR scores	7.0%	7.1%	13.8%	0.52×	14.01
Neither team scores	6.2%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.01

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.8%	22.6%	26.8%	0.84×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.4%	17.5%	13.2%	1.32×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.9%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	9.6%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.7%	7.6%	4.8%	1.60×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.2%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.6%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	29.3%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
2 goals in 1st half	22.3%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	12.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.18

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.5%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	18.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR not to win both halves	97.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Flamengo not to win both halves	76.6%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Flamengo to win both halves	23.4%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Athletico-PR to win both halves	2.6%	2.8%	—	—	36.14

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win either half	73.0%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Athletico-PR to win neither half	70.8%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Athletico-PR to win either half	29.3%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Flamengo to win neither half	27.0%	26.9%	—	—	3.72

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR not to win to nil	93.0%	92.1%	86.2%	1.07×	1.09
Flamengo not to win to nil	66.0%	69.7%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Flamengo to win to nil	34.0%	30.3%	28.1%	1.08×	3.30
Athletico-PR to win to nil	7.0%	7.9%	13.8%	0.57×	12.66

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo by 1	23.4%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Draw	22.5%	24.1%	27.3%	0.88×	4.15
Flamengo by 3+	19.6%	17.1%	9.2%	1.85×	5.87
Flamengo by 2	19.3%	17.0%	14.1%	1.21×	5.87
Athletico-PR by 1	10.0%	11.8%	14.6%	0.80×	8.51
Athletico-PR by 2	3.9%	2.7%	6.2%	0.44×	36.85
Athletico-PR by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.93