Flamengo v Fluminense FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627
Brasileirão
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 10.2%
- 2-1 9.8%
- 1-1 9.8%
- 1-0 8.4%
- 3-0 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | Under 2.5 | 38.6% |
| BTTS yes | 55.9% | BTTS no | 44.1% |
| Flamengo 1+ | 89.0% | Flamengo 2+ | 64.8% |
| Fluminense FC 1+ | 61.7% | Fluminense FC 2+ | 25.0% |
Expected goals 2.21 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Flamengo carry the stronger rating, 1775 Elo against 1616.
- Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Flamengo have an estimated 62.7% win probability, against 23.8% for the draw and 13.5% for Fluminense FC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.21 for Flamengo and 0.96 for Fluminense FC.
Why Flamengo
Flamengo carry the stronger rating, 1775 Elo against 1616. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Fluminense FC can win
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Flamengo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fluminense FC, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Flamengo: 56% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fluminense FC: 62% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Flamengo are the model's most likely outcome at 62.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.2%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.10–0.84 | 2-0 12% | 56% | 51% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.