Fortaleza CEIF v Independiente Medellín — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 2 November 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Fortaleza CEIF

21:20 UTC

Independiente Medellín

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 154h before kick-off

Fortaleza CEIF win

23.0%

model 24.8%

Draw

27.7%

model 26.5%

Independiente Medellín win

49.3%

model 48.7%

232849

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.7%
0-1 9.7%
1-2 9.5%
0-2 8.7%
0-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.4%	Under 2.5	48.6%
BTTS yes	54.6%	BTTS no	45.4%
Fortaleza CEIF 1+	66.7%	Fortaleza CEIF 2+	30.1%
Independiente Medellín 1+	80.4%	Independiente Medellín 2+	48.4%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.63. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

82/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Independiente Medellín (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 35%

67.1% fair odds 1.49

strong signal · 332 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4341 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Independiente Medellín carry the stronger rating, 1609 Elo against 1431.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Independiente Medellín have an estimated 49.3% win probability, against 27.7% for the draw and 23.0% for Fortaleza CEIF. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.10 for Fortaleza CEIF and 1.63 for Independiente Medellín.

Why Fortaleza CEIF

Nothing in the data singles out Fortaleza CEIF.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Independiente Medellín can win

Independiente Medellín carry the stronger rating, 1609 Elo against 1431. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Fortaleza CEIF, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Independiente Medellín, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fortaleza CEIF: 45% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Independiente Medellín: 53% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Independiente Medellín are the model's most likely outcome at 49.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 82/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	252749	1.10–1.63	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	292843	1.14–1.43	1-1 13%	47%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to win	42.8%	42.9%	24.8%	1.73×	2.33
Fortaleza CEIF to win	28.9%	27.9%	45.8%	0.61×	3.58
Draw	28.3%	27.9%	29.5%	0.95×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín & not both score	23.4%	21.8%	13.4%	1.62×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.6%	18.0%	18.8%	0.95×	5.56
Independiente Medellín & both teams score	19.4%	18.0%	11.5%	1.56×	5.56
Fortaleza CEIF & not both score	15.2%	18.0%	27.1%	0.66×	5.57
Fortaleza CEIF & both teams score	13.7%	13.3%	18.8%	0.70×	7.54
Draw & not both score	8.7%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín & over 1.5	32.8%	30.8%	16.5%	1.87×	3.25
Independiente Medellín & under 3.5	30.5%	30.7%	19.9%	1.54×	3.25
Independiente Medellín & over 2.5	25.0%	21.6%	12.9%	1.68×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	22.2%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	22.2%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Fortaleza CEIF & under 3.5	21.6%	21.6%	35.7%	0.60×	4.63
Fortaleza CEIF & over 1.5	21.2%	21.6%	33.8%	0.64×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.6%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.55
Independiente Medellín & under 2.5	17.8%	18.0%	12.1%	1.49×	5.56
Fortaleza CEIF & over 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	25.5%	0.71×	5.56
Fortaleza CEIF & under 2.5	12.6%	12.8%	20.5%	0.63×	7.79
Independiente Medellín & over 3.5	12.3%	12.8%	5.0%	2.57×	7.79
Independiente Medellín & under 1.5	10.0%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	8.7%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Fortaleza CEIF & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	12.2%	0.65×	12.63
Fortaleza CEIF & over 3.5	7.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	6.0%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	6.0%	1.33×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (1UP)	58.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Fortaleza CEIF (1UP)	46.2%	43.8%	—	—	2.29

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (2UP)	42.8%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Fortaleza CEIF (2UP)	28.9%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to win 2nd half	37.7%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
2nd half drawn	37.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Fortaleza CEIF to win 2nd half	25.3%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.6%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.4%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.2%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Fortaleza CEIF under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Fortaleza CEIF over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.7%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Fortaleza CEIF over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.8%	11.3%	—	—	8.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (+2.5)	96.3%	96.3%	91.8%	1.05×	1.04
Independiente Medellín (+1.5)	88.1%	88.5%	79.6%	1.11×	1.13
Independiente Medellín (+0.5)	71.1%	73.6%	54.2%	1.36×	1.36
Fortaleza CEIF (+0.5)	57.2%	57.0%	75.2%	0.76×	1.75
Independiente Medellín (-0.5)	42.8%	43.0%	24.8%	1.73×	2.33
Fortaleza CEIF (-0.5)	28.9%	26.4%	45.8%	0.57×	3.80
Fortaleza CEIF (-1.5)	11.9%	11.5%	20.4%	0.57×	8.67
Fortaleza CEIF (-2.5)	3.7%	3.7%	8.2%	0.45×	27.10

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to concede	67.9%	72.3%	75.9%	0.95×	1.38
Independiente Medellín clean sheet	32.1%	27.7%	24.1%	1.15×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín clean sheet in 1st half	61.4%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Independiente Medellín to concede in 1st half	38.6%	35.5%	—	—	2.81

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín clean sheet in 2nd half	52.3%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Independiente Medellín to concede in 2nd half	47.7%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 6.5 corners	85.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Independiente Medellín under 5.5 corners	76.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Independiente Medellín over 2.5 corners	69.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Independiente Medellín under 4.5 corners	64.0%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Independiente Medellín over 3.5 corners	51.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Independiente Medellín under 3.5 corners	48.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Independiente Medellín over 4.5 corners	36.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Independiente Medellín under 2.5 corners	30.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Independiente Medellín over 5.5 corners	23.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Independiente Medellín over 6.5 corners	14.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.4%	98.1%	0.94×	1.08
Independiente Medellín under 2.5 goals	82.6%	81.5%	92.9%	0.88×	1.23
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 goals	76.1%	76.2%	62.2%	1.23×	1.31
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 goals	58.1%	59.4%	74.2%	0.80×	1.68
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 goals	41.9%	40.6%	25.8%	1.57×	2.47
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 goals	23.9%	23.8%	37.8%	0.63×	4.21
Independiente Medellín over 2.5 goals	17.4%	18.5%	7.1%	2.62×	5.41
Independiente Medellín over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.6%	1.9%	3.94×	13.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín under 1.5 in 1st half	88.7%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Independiente Medellín under 0.5 in 1st half	56.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Independiente Medellín over 0.5 in 1st half	43.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Independiente Medellín over 1.5 in 1st half	11.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín scores more in 2nd half	39.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Independiente Medellín scores equally in both	37.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Independiente Medellín scores more in 1st half	22.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF (away no bet)	50.6%	51.6%	60.8%	0.85×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	49.4%	48.4%	39.2%	1.24×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín even goals	52.9%	52.6%	57.6%	0.91×	1.90
Independiente Medellín odd goals	47.1%	47.4%	42.4%	1.12×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.25

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.9%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.1%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Independiente Medellín to score 2+ in a row	34.2%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Fortaleza CEIF to score 2+ in a row	23.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.6%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Independiente Medellín to score 3+ in a row	11.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Fortaleza CEIF to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	5.5%	—	—	18.28

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF corners (+3.5)	86.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Independiente Medellín corners (+3.5)	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Fortaleza CEIF corners (+2.5)	79.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Independiente Medellín corners (+2.5)	74.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Fortaleza CEIF corners (+1.5)	70.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Independiente Medellín corners (+1.5)	64.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Fortaleza CEIF corners (-1.5)	35.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Independiente Medellín corners (-1.5)	29.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Fortaleza CEIF corners (-2.5)	25.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Independiente Medellín corners (-2.5)	20.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fortaleza CEIF corners (-3.5)	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Independiente Medellín corners (-3.5)	13.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.1%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	25.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	17.2%	22.5%	—	—	4.44

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	82.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	75.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	67.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	57.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	42.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	32.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	24.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	17.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	11.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.5%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.71
0-0	8.7%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-1	10.0%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
1-2	8.9%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
0-2	7.9%	7.4%	3.7%	1.98×	13.51
1-0	7.7%	7.4%	12.2%	0.61×	13.51
2-1	7.1%	7.4%	10.9%	0.68×	13.51
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.29
0-3	3.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.31
1-3	4.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.30
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.31
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.31
3-0	1.9%	1.7%	4.6%	0.38×	58.31
3-1	2.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	58.30
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.19×	58.32
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.32
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (2nd half DNB)	59.8%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Fortaleza CEIF (2nd half DNB)	40.2%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín leading at HT (DNB)	55.1%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Fortaleza CEIF leading at HT (DNB)	44.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF or Independiente Medellín (12)	71.7%	72.1%	70.5%	1.02×	1.39
Independiente Medellín or draw (X2)	71.1%	72.1%	54.2%	1.33×	1.39
Fortaleza CEIF or draw (1X)	57.2%	57.1%	75.2%	0.76×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw at HT	75.5%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Fortaleza CEIF or draw at HT	69.9%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Fortaleza CEIF or Independiente Medellín at HT	54.7%	48.7%	—	—	2.05

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw (1UP)	71.1%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Fortaleza CEIF or draw (1UP)	57.2%	63.0%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín or draw in 2nd half	74.7%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Fortaleza CEIF or Independiente Medellín in 2nd half	63.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Fortaleza CEIF or draw in 2nd half	62.3%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.5%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	35.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (DNB)	59.7%	58.2%	35.1%	1.66×	1.72
Fortaleza CEIF (DNB)	40.3%	41.8%	64.9%	0.64×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score first	50.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Fortaleza CEIF to score first	40.4%	41.6%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	8.7%	7.6%	—	—	13.14

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.7%	51.3%	48.9%	1.05×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.3%	48.7%	51.1%	0.95×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.2%	38.5%	36.0%	1.07×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	39.2%	38.5%	43.1%	0.89×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.5%	12.4%	13.0%	0.95×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.1%	8.3%	8.2%	1.01×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.8%	85.6%	88.6%	0.97×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.2%	14.4%	11.4%	1.27×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.2%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.8%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.8%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	23.2%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	12.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	4.6%	4.9%	—	—	20.21

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.0%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.0%	16.5%	—	—	6.05

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	48.6%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.0%	47.2%	48.1%	0.98×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.3%	26.6%	31.2%	0.85×	3.76
4-6 goals	24.1%	22.9%	19.5%	1.17×	4.36
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	54.40

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 1	34.2%	33.8%	36.6%	0.93×	2.96
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 2	24.5%	22.3%	18.8%	1.18×	4.49
Independiente Medellín to score exactly 0	23.9%	22.3%	37.8%	0.59×	4.49
Independiente Medellín to score 3+	17.4%	19.5%	7.1%	2.77×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.5%	34.5%	1.03×	2.81
Fortaleza CEIF to score exactly 0	32.1%	32.6%	24.1%	1.35×	3.07
Fortaleza CEIF to score exactly 2	20.7%	23.3%	26.2%	0.89×	4.30
Fortaleza CEIF to score 3+	10.7%	14.3%	15.5%	0.92×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.3%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Independiente Medellín leading at HT	30.1%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Fortaleza CEIF leading at HT	24.5%	20.5%	—	—	4.88

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín -1: 1	57.2%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Independiente Medellín -1: X	21.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Independiente Medellín -1: 2	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:1)	71.1%	71.0%	54.2%	1.31×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	17.0%	17.8%	25.6%	0.70×	5.62
Fortaleza CEIF (0:1)	11.9%	13.7%	20.4%	0.67×	7.30

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:2)	88.1%	87.1%	79.6%	1.09×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.2%	7.7%	12.3%	0.62×	13.05
Fortaleza CEIF (0:2)	3.7%	3.7%	8.2%	0.46×	26.68

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:3)	96.3%	96.6%	91.8%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.02
Fortaleza CEIF (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	97.1%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.9%	0.63×	81.89
Fortaleza CEIF (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.95

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF (1:0)	57.2%	58.3%	75.2%	0.78×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	21.7%	21.7%	17.3%	1.25×	4.61
Independiente Medellín (1:0)	21.1%	21.7%	7.6%	2.85×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF (2:0)	78.9%	80.5%	92.4%	0.87×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	13.1%	10.3%	5.0%	2.07×	9.71
Independiente Medellín (2:0)	8.0%	6.4%	2.8%	2.31×	15.65

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.7%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	27.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF to concede	76.1%	76.0%	62.2%	1.22×	1.32
Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet	23.9%	24.0%	37.8%	0.63×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet in 1st half	56.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Fortaleza CEIF to concede in 1st half	43.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF to concede in 2nd half	57.6%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet in 2nd half	42.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF under 6.5 corners	82.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Fortaleza CEIF over 2.5 corners	72.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fortaleza CEIF under 5.5 corners	72.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fortaleza CEIF under 4.5 corners	59.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fortaleza CEIF over 3.5 corners	56.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fortaleza CEIF under 3.5 corners	43.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fortaleza CEIF over 4.5 corners	40.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fortaleza CEIF over 5.5 corners	27.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Fortaleza CEIF under 2.5 corners	27.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Fortaleza CEIF over 6.5 corners	18.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF under 3.5 goals	97.2%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Fortaleza CEIF under 2.5 goals	89.3%	87.3%	84.5%	1.03×	1.15
Fortaleza CEIF under 1.5 goals	68.6%	67.9%	58.4%	1.16×	1.47
Fortaleza CEIF over 0.5 goals	67.9%	67.9%	75.9%	0.90×	1.47
Fortaleza CEIF under 0.5 goals	32.1%	32.1%	24.1%	1.33×	3.12
Fortaleza CEIF over 1.5 goals	31.4%	32.1%	41.6%	0.77×	3.12
Fortaleza CEIF over 2.5 goals	10.7%	12.7%	15.5%	0.82×	7.86
Fortaleza CEIF over 3.5 goals	2.8%	3.6%	4.7%	0.77×	27.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF under 1.5 in 1st half	91.3%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Fortaleza CEIF under 0.5 in 1st half	61.4%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Fortaleza CEIF over 0.5 in 1st half	38.6%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
Fortaleza CEIF over 1.5 in 1st half	8.7%	5.3%	—	—	18.75

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF scores equally in both	43.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Fortaleza CEIF scores more in 2nd half	33.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Fortaleza CEIF scores more in 1st half	23.3%	21.0%	—	—	4.76

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín (home no bet)	60.2%	60.0%	45.7%	1.31×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	39.8%	40.0%	54.3%	0.74×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF even goals	55.2%	55.3%	53.3%	1.04×	1.81
Fortaleza CEIF odd goals	44.8%	44.7%	46.7%	0.96×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.8%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
HT 0-1	19.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-0	16.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	9.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 0-2	5.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 2-0	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
Any other HT score	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.24
HT 2-1	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	23.6%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Fortaleza CEIF at HT / Fortaleza CEIF at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Fortaleza CEIF at FT	11.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Fortaleza CEIF at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Independiente Medellín at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Fortaleza CEIF at HT / Independiente Medellín at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.94
Independiente Medellín at HT / Fortaleza CEIF at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.98

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín to score last	51.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Fortaleza CEIF to score last	40.3%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
No goal scored	8.7%	7.6%	—	—	13.14

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.3%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Independiente Medellín to lead by 1 at any time	58.4%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Fortaleza CEIF to lead by 1 at any time	46.2%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.8%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Independiente Medellín to lead by 2 at any time	27.0%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Fortaleza CEIF to lead by 2 at any time	17.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.39
Independiente Medellín to lead by 3 at any time	9.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.93
Fortaleza CEIF to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	1.7%	—	—	60.55

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF most corners	47.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Independiente Medellín most corners	40.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	85.7%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.5%	78.7%	80.1%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.0%	72.3%	67.5%	1.07×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.0%	68.8%	65.4%	1.05×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.6%	68.8%	68.4%	1.01×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.8%	63.3%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.0%	48.4%	48.1%	1.01×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.7%	48.4%	42.7%	1.14×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.0%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.7%	43.6%	40.6%	1.07×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.5%	39.2%	34.9%	1.12×	2.55
4-6 goals	24.1%	24.5%	19.5%	1.25×	4.09
4-5 goals	21.0%	24.4%	17.5%	1.40×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.2%	14.8%	7.9%	1.87×	6.76
7+ goals	1.6%	2.6%	1.5%	1.67×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente Medellín never behind	45.1%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Fortaleza CEIF never behind	33.0%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.7%	50.9%	50.4%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.3%	49.1%	49.6%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.3%	95.4%	96.4%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	89.2%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.2%	87.6%	90.7%	0.97×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	73.7%	72.5%	68.8%	1.05×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.7%	52.5%	56.0%	0.94×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	47.3%	47.5%	44.0%	1.08×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	26.3%	27.5%	31.2%	0.88×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	20.9%	1.32×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	11.8%	12.4%	9.3%	1.34×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	4.7%	4.6%	3.6%	1.27×	21.80

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.3%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.0%	92.4%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.3%	86.7%	89.5%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.2%	67.5%	72.8%	0.93×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	64.2%	61.9%	58.6%	1.06×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	35.8%	38.1%	41.4%	0.92×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.8%	32.5%	27.2%	1.19×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.7%	13.3%	10.5%	1.26×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.0%	7.6%	3.8%	1.98×	13.21
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.7%	2.8%	1.6%	1.80×	35.65

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.1%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.2%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.8%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.9%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.2%	7.3%	—	—	13.68

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.5%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.2%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.8%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.5%	20.4%	—	—	4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF not to score in both halves	81.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Independiente Medellín not to score in both halves	74.9%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Independiente Medellín to score in both halves	25.1%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
Fortaleza CEIF to score in both halves	18.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.7%	53.8%	48.9%	1.10×	1.86
Only Independiente Medellín scores	23.4%	22.3%	13.4%	1.66×	4.49
Only Fortaleza CEIF scores	15.2%	16.0%	27.1%	0.59×	6.24
Neither team scores	8.7%	7.1%	10.8%	0.66×	13.99

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	24.9%	24.9%	1.00×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.7%	17.5%	20.5%	0.85×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.9%	12.1%	11.8%	1.03×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	8.7%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.1%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.7%	4.5%	3.6%	1.24×	22.33

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	34.8%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	19.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
3+ goals in 1st half	9.2%	7.3%	—	—	13.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.8%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.7%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	22.5%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF not to win both halves	93.7%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Independiente Medellín not to win both halves	88.5%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Independiente Medellín to win both halves	11.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Fortaleza CEIF to win both halves	6.3%	5.8%	—	—	17.20

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF to win neither half	56.5%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Independiente Medellín to win either half	56.3%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Independiente Medellín to win neither half	43.7%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Fortaleza CEIF to win either half	43.5%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fortaleza CEIF not to win to nil	84.8%	83.1%	72.9%	1.14×	1.20
Independiente Medellín not to win to nil	76.6%	78.1%	86.6%	0.90×	1.28
Independiente Medellín to win to nil	23.4%	21.9%	13.4%	1.63×	4.57
Fortaleza CEIF to win to nil	15.2%	16.9%	27.1%	0.62×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.3%	27.9%	29.5%	0.95×	3.59
Independiente Medellín by 1	21.7%	24.1%	17.3%	1.39×	4.15
Fortaleza CEIF by 1	17.0%	17.0%	25.6%	0.67×	5.87
Independiente Medellín by 2	13.1%	11.8%	5.0%	2.36×	8.50
Fortaleza CEIF by 2	8.2%	7.2%	12.3%	0.58×	13.91
Independiente Medellín by 3+	8.0%	7.2%	2.8%	2.60×	13.91
Fortaleza CEIF by 3+	3.7%	2.7%	8.2%	0.33×	36.86