Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 17
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.21
Goals − xG
+0.42 – +0.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
29.6%
Draw
26.7%
Bayer Leverkusen win
43.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DLWWWWDWLL last 10
scored 23
from 16.4 xG
conceded 14
from 14.0 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLDLWDWWWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.2 xG
conceded 17
from 16.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.27–1.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.46 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 2.58 xGBayer Leverkusen 2.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 4' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Martin Terrier | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Kofane |
| 6' |
 Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 12' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 13' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 13' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 18' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 18' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 20' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 21' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ezequiél Fernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 27' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 28' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 29' |
Freiburg |
Christian Günter | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christian Günter |
| 36' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Martin Terrier |
| 38' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Janis Blaswich |
| 42' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Philipp Treu |
| 45' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 45' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 46' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix García |
| 49' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix García |
| 51' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Martin Terrier | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christian Kofane |
| 53' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.65 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 65' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 69' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Janis Blaswich |
| 70' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 71' |
Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 72' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 74' |
Freiburg |
Bruno Ogbus | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 85' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.61 | Open Play | — | Goal | Derry Scherhant |
| 88' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarell Quansah |
| 93' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Derry Scherhant |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kofane FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1.23 | 0.46 | 1.74 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 1.07 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Janis Blaswich GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Ernest Poku DMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| Ezequiél Fernández MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Martin Terrier AMC | 78 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.07 | 1.12 |
| Ibrahim Maza AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| Malik Tillman Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Montrell Culbreath Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Exequiel Palacios Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tim Oermann Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 1.23 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.04 | 0.76 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.76 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.38 | 0.84 |
| Bruno Ogbus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 1.01 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.16 | 1.26 |
| Christian Günter DL | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.38 | 0.85 |
| Jordy Makengo Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| Cyriaque Irié Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Lucas Höler Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |