Freiburg v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Freiburg

13:30 UTC

Bayern Munich

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 51h before kick-off

Freiburg win

18.7%

model 19.6%

Draw

18.6%

model 18.5%

Bayern Munich win

62.7%

model 61.9%

191963

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.1%
1-3 7.4%
1-1 7.4%
0-2 6.8%
2-2 6.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	72.9%	Under 2.5	27.1%
BTTS yes	67.3%	BTTS no	32.7%
Freiburg 1+	73.7%	Freiburg 2+	38.6%
Bayern Munich 1+	91.4%	Bayern Munich 2+	70.2%

Expected goals 1.34 – 2.45. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 2nd half

2nd half away goals O/U · usually 21%

51.8% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 919 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 85%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1948 Elo against 1588.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bayern Munich have an estimated 62.7% win probability, against 18.7% for Freiburg and 18.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.33 for Freiburg and 2.45 for Bayern Munich.

Why Freiburg

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Freiburg average 1.93 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Bayern Munich can win

Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1948 Elo against 1588. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Freiburg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Igor Matanovic (0.39), Yuito Suzuki (0.29), Johan Manzambi (0.25). Bayern Munich's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Harry Kane (1.03), Michael Olise (0.72), Luis Díaz (0.64).

Availability

2 of Freiburg's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Freiburg's last eleven are new to the club this window. Bayern Munich changed goalkeeper for their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Freiburg: 52% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.64 xG a match from set pieces. Bayern Munich: 71% possession, 25.0 shots a match, 7.2 faced, 0.65 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Bayern Munich are the model's most likely outcome at 62.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.1%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

LDLWWWWDWL last 10 scored 22 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 14.0 xG

Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDWWWDWWDW last 10 scored 35 from 31.8 xG conceded 12 from 15.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	201862	1.34–2.45	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	191863	1.29–2.44	1-2 9%	72%	66%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win	55.0%	51.5%	33.4%	1.54×	1.94
Freiburg to win	24.9%	24.4%	42.1%	0.58×	4.09
Draw	20.1%	24.4%	24.7%	0.99×	4.10

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich & both teams score	34.6%	29.6%	18.4%	1.61×	3.37
Bayern Munich & not both score	20.4%	21.8%	15.1%	1.44×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	17.7%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.57
Freiburg & both teams score	16.7%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.57
Freiburg & not both score	8.2%	8.3%	19.9%	0.42×	12.01
Draw & not both score	2.4%	4.8%	5.8%	0.83×	20.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich & over 1.5	49.6%	45.1%	27.5%	1.64×	2.22
Bayern Munich & over 2.5	43.5%	40.3%	23.4%	1.72×	2.48
Bayern Munich & over 3.5	29.9%	26.1%	14.1%	1.85×	3.84
Bayern Munich & under 3.5	25.1%	26.1%	19.5%	1.34×	3.84
Freiburg & over 1.5	21.3%	21.6%	35.8%	0.60×	4.63
Freiburg & over 2.5	18.7%	18.0%	29.9%	0.60×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.56
Freiburg & under 3.5	13.4%	12.8%	21.9%	0.59×	7.79
Freiburg & over 3.5	11.5%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Bayern Munich & under 2.5	11.5%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	10.4%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	10.4%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Freiburg & under 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	12.3%	0.65×	12.63
Bayern Munich & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.0%	1.32×	12.63
Freiburg & under 1.5	3.6%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	2.4%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (1UP)	71.8%	75.4%	52.2%	1.45×	1.33
Freiburg (1UP)	47.2%	43.9%	60.1%	0.73×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (2UP)	55.0%	55.4%	36.4%	1.52×	1.81
Freiburg (2UP)	24.9%	23.6%	45.4%	0.52×	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win 2nd half	58.0%	61.3%	29.1%	2.11×	1.63
2nd half drawn	24.8%	24.3%	33.6%	0.72×	4.11
Freiburg to win 2nd half	17.2%	18.1%	37.5%	0.48×	5.54

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.0%	84.2%	56.5%	1.49×	1.19
Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	52.6%	79.5%	0.66×	1.90
Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	47.4%	20.5%	2.31×	2.11
Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.0%	15.8%	43.5%	0.36×	6.33

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.8%	82.5%	74.4%	1.11×	1.21
Freiburg over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	55.1%	63.1%	0.87×	1.81
Freiburg under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	44.9%	36.9%	1.22×	2.23
Freiburg over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.2%	17.5%	25.6%	0.68×	5.72

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (+2.5)	96.0%	96.3%	88.0%	1.09×	1.04
Bayern Munich (+1.5)	88.9%	88.5%	75.4%	1.17×	1.13
Bayern Munich (+0.5)	75.1%	78.5%	57.9%	1.35×	1.27
Bayern Munich (-0.5)	55.0%	52.4%	33.4%	1.57×	1.91
Freiburg (+0.5)	45.0%	47.6%	66.6%	0.71×	2.10
Freiburg (-0.5)	24.9%	21.5%	42.1%	0.51×	4.65
Freiburg (-1.5)	11.1%	11.5%	24.6%	0.47×	8.67
Freiburg (-2.5)	4.0%	3.7%	12.0%	0.31×	27.04

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to concede	77.2%	78.8%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
Bayern Munich clean sheet	22.8%	21.2%	20.8%	1.02×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to concede in 1st half	51.8%	50.5%	51.9%	0.97×	1.98
Bayern Munich clean sheet in 1st half	48.2%	49.5%	48.1%	1.03×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to concede in 2nd half	52.6%	54.9%	63.1%	0.87×	1.82
Bayern Munich clean sheet in 2nd half	47.4%	45.1%	36.9%	1.22×	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich over 2.5 corners	81.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Bayern Munich under 6.5 corners	74.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Bayern Munich over 3.5 corners	67.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Bayern Munich under 5.5 corners	62.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bayern Munich over 4.5 corners	52.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Bayern Munich under 4.5 corners	47.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Bayern Munich over 5.5 corners	37.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bayern Munich under 3.5 corners	32.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Bayern Munich over 6.5 corners	26.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Bayern Munich under 2.5 corners	18.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich over 0.5 goals	89.4%	87.8%	74.4%	1.18×	1.14
Bayern Munich under 3.5 goals	81.1%	81.4%	92.7%	0.88×	1.23
Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals	65.7%	68.0%	42.8%	1.59×	1.47
Bayern Munich under 2.5 goals	61.0%	63.2%	79.2%	0.80×	1.58
Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals	39.0%	36.8%	20.8%	1.77×	2.71
Bayern Munich under 1.5 goals	34.3%	32.0%	57.2%	0.56×	3.12
Bayern Munich over 3.5 goals	18.9%	18.6%	7.3%	2.53×	5.39
Bayern Munich under 0.5 goals	10.6%	12.2%	25.6%	0.48×	8.21

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 1st half	86.6%	89.3%	85.8%	1.04×	1.12
Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	55.5%	54.4%	1.02×	1.80
Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	44.5%	45.6%	0.98×	2.25
Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 1st half	13.4%	10.7%	14.2%	0.75×	9.31

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich scores more in 2nd half	61.0%	61.7%	36.4%	1.69×	1.62
Bayern Munich scores equally in both	24.5%	22.0%	39.6%	0.56×	4.54
Bayern Munich scores more in 1st half	14.5%	12.6%	24.1%	0.52×	7.94

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (away no bet)	55.3%	57.3%	63.0%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.7%	42.7%	37.0%	1.15×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich even goals	50.6%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Bayern Munich odd goals	49.4%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	72.9%	76.7%	75.3%	1.02×	1.31
Both halves over 1.5 goals	27.1%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.28

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	80.8%	78.3%	72.3%	1.08×	1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals	19.2%	21.8%	27.7%	0.78×	4.60

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	72.2%	72.0%	66.4%	1.08×	1.39
Bayern Munich to score 2+ in a row	54.8%	51.1%	34.3%	1.49×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	33.2%	29.2%	29.2%	1.00×	3.42
Freiburg to score 2+ in a row	30.2%	29.1%	42.6%	0.68×	3.44
Bayern Munich to score 3+ in a row	25.4%	25.2%	12.3%	2.05×	3.98
Freiburg to score 3+ in a row	8.7%	5.6%	17.8%	0.31×	17.85

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich corners (+3.5)	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Bayern Munich corners (+2.5)	84.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Freiburg corners (+3.5)	76.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Bayern Munich corners (+1.5)	76.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Freiburg corners (+2.5)	67.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Freiburg corners (+1.5)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Bayern Munich corners (-1.5)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Bayern Munich corners (-2.5)	32.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Freiburg corners (-1.5)	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Bayern Munich corners (-3.5)	23.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Freiburg corners (-2.5)	15.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Freiburg corners (-3.5)	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.2%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.7%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	31.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	22.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	9.3%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.50
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
1-1	8.0%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
1-3	6.8%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.51
2-2	6.7%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
0-1	5.4%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
0-2	6.1%	7.4%	4.3%	1.71×	13.51
2-1	5.9%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.51
2-3	5.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.29
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	3.82×	58.32
0-0	2.4%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.31
0-3	4.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.29
0-4	2.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.30
1-0	3.6%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.30
1-4	3.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.30
2-0	2.6%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-4	2.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.30
3-0	1.3%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.31
3-1	2.9%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
3-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
3-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.31
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.32
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (2nd half DNB)	77.2%	79.4%	43.7%	1.82×	1.26
Freiburg (2nd half DNB)	22.8%	20.6%	56.3%	0.37×	4.86

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg leading at HT (DNB)	54.6%	55.1%	55.6%	0.99×	1.82
Bayern Munich leading at HT (DNB)	45.4%	44.9%	44.4%	1.01×	2.23

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or Bayern Munich (12)	79.9%	75.6%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Bayern Munich or draw (X2)	75.1%	75.6%	57.9%	1.30×	1.32
Freiburg or draw (1X)	45.0%	48.5%	66.6%	0.73×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or draw at HT	72.2%	75.1%	70.6%	1.06×	1.33
Bayern Munich or draw at HT	66.6%	66.6%	63.3%	1.05×	1.50
Freiburg or Bayern Munich at HT	61.2%	61.6%	66.0%	0.93×	1.62

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw (1UP)	75.1%	83.9%	64.6%	1.30×	1.19
Freiburg or draw (1UP)	47.2%	53.2%	73.8%	0.72×	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw in 2nd half	82.8%	82.0%	62.5%	1.31×	1.22
Freiburg or Bayern Munich in 2nd half	75.2%	75.7%	66.4%	1.14×	1.32
Freiburg or draw in 2nd half	42.0%	38.7%	70.9%	0.55×	2.59

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.0%	50.1%	54.0%	0.93×	2.00
Neither half drawn	46.0%	49.9%	46.0%	1.08×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (DNB)	68.8%	67.4%	44.2%	1.52×	1.48
Freiburg (DNB)	31.2%	32.6%	55.8%	0.58×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score first	58.9%	62.2%	43.2%	1.44×	1.61
Freiburg to score first	38.7%	32.9%	51.1%	0.64×	3.04
No goal scored	2.4%	4.2%	5.8%	0.73×	23.55

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.0%	58.5%	59.4%	0.98×	1.71
Not both teams to score	31.0%	41.5%	40.6%	1.02×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	61.0%	50.4%	50.2%	1.00×	1.99
Not both score & under 2.5	20.1%	27.7%	28.0%	0.99×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	10.9%	12.4%	12.7%	0.97×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	8.0%	8.3%	9.4%	0.88×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	71.5%	80.4%	79.3%	1.01×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	28.5%	19.6%	20.7%	0.95×	5.11

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	57.9%	65.0%	65.1%	1.00×	1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half	42.1%	35.0%	34.9%	1.00×	2.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	43.8%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Both score 2nd half only	31.8%	27.1%	28.3%	0.96×	3.69
Both score 1st half only	14.1%	10.7%	13.9%	0.77×	9.34
Both score in both halves	10.3%	10.6%	6.7%	1.58×	9.40

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.6%	81.1%	79.5%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.4%	18.9%	20.5%	0.92×	5.30

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	67.5%	66.4%	67.5%	0.98×	1.51
A half without a goal	32.5%	33.6%	32.5%	1.03×	2.98

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	42.8%	42.1%	39.7%	1.06×	2.37
2-3 goals	37.5%	35.1%	38.3%	0.92×	2.85
0-1 goals	11.4%	16.9%	18.0%	0.94×	5.92
7+ goals	8.3%	7.6%	4.3%	1.76×	13.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score 3+	39.0%	35.9%	20.8%	1.73×	2.78
Bayern Munich to score exactly 2	26.7%	27.4%	22.2%	1.24×	3.66
Bayern Munich to score exactly 1	23.8%	22.3%	31.7%	0.70×	4.48
Bayern Munich to score exactly 0	10.6%	12.9%	25.6%	0.50×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to score exactly 1	33.7%	32.6%	28.7%	1.13×	3.07
Freiburg to score exactly 2	24.9%	23.3%	23.2%	1.01×	4.29
Freiburg to score exactly 0	22.8%	23.3%	20.8%	1.12×	4.29
Freiburg to score 3+	18.5%	18.8%	27.5%	0.68×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.8%	38.4%	34.0%	1.13×	2.60
Freiburg leading at HT	33.4%	33.4%	36.7%	0.91×	3.00
Bayern Munich leading at HT	27.8%	24.9%	29.4%	0.85×	4.01

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich -1: 1	45.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Bayern Munich -1: 2	33.9%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Bayern Munich -1: X	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:1)	75.1%	73.6%	57.9%	1.27×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	13.8%	13.7%	17.7%	0.78×	7.28
Freiburg (0:1)	11.1%	13.7%	24.6%	0.56×	7.30

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:2)	88.9%	87.1%	75.4%	1.15×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.1%	7.7%	12.7%	0.60×	13.04
Freiburg (0:2)	4.0%	3.8%	12.0%	0.31×	26.63

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:3)	96.0%	96.6%	88.0%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	4.9%	0.48×	42.07
Freiburg (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	7.2%	0.33×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	92.8%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	4.9%	0.25×	82.00
Freiburg (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (1:0)	45.0%	49.0%	66.6%	0.74×	2.04
Bayern Munich (1:0)	33.9%	30.2%	16.9%	1.79×	3.31
Draw (1:0)	21.1%	21.7%	16.6%	1.31×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (2:0)	66.1%	70.7%	83.1%	0.85×	1.41
Bayern Munich (2:0)	17.5%	15.8%	7.2%	2.20×	6.32
Draw (2:0)	16.4%	15.8%	9.9%	1.60×	6.33

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	59.5%	60.8%	47.4%	1.28×	1.65
1st half highest scoring	21.3%	24.3%	25.9%	0.94×	4.11
Halves equal	19.2%	19.8%	26.8%	0.74×	5.06

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede	89.4%	85.7%	74.4%	1.15×	1.17
Freiburg clean sheet	10.6%	14.3%	25.6%	0.56×	6.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg clean sheet in 1st half	52.9%	55.5%	54.4%	1.02×	1.80
Freiburg to concede in 1st half	47.1%	44.5%	45.6%	0.98×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede in 2nd half	80.0%	81.7%	56.5%	1.45×	1.22
Freiburg clean sheet in 2nd half	20.0%	18.3%	43.5%	0.42×	5.46

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 6.5 corners	85.8%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Freiburg under 5.5 corners	76.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Freiburg over 2.5 corners	71.2%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Freiburg under 4.5 corners	63.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Freiburg over 3.5 corners	53.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Freiburg under 3.5 corners	46.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Freiburg over 4.5 corners	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Freiburg under 2.5 corners	28.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Freiburg over 5.5 corners	23.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Freiburg over 6.5 corners	14.2%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 3.5 goals	93.7%	92.2%	88.3%	1.04×	1.08
Freiburg under 2.5 goals	81.5%	82.2%	72.5%	1.13×	1.22
Freiburg over 0.5 goals	77.2%	77.7%	79.2%	0.98×	1.29
Freiburg under 1.5 goals	56.6%	58.6%	49.4%	1.19×	1.71
Freiburg over 1.5 goals	43.4%	41.4%	50.6%	0.82×	2.42
Freiburg under 0.5 goals	22.8%	22.3%	20.8%	1.07×	4.49
Freiburg over 2.5 goals	18.5%	17.8%	27.5%	0.65×	5.62
Freiburg over 3.5 goals	6.3%	7.8%	11.7%	0.66×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 1st half	83.4%	83.8%	80.5%	1.04×	1.19
Freiburg over 0.5 in 1st half	51.8%	50.3%	51.9%	0.97×	1.99
Freiburg under 0.5 in 1st half	48.2%	49.7%	48.1%	1.03×	2.01
Freiburg over 1.5 in 1st half	16.6%	16.2%	19.5%	0.83×	6.16

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg scores equally in both	37.1%	37.9%	36.7%	1.03×	2.64
Freiburg scores more in 2nd half	31.9%	32.9%	38.2%	0.86×	3.04
Freiburg scores more in 1st half	31.0%	32.9%	25.2%	1.31×	3.04

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (home no bet)	73.2%	67.0%	57.5%	1.16×	1.49
Draw (home no bet)	26.8%	33.0%	42.5%	0.78×	3.03

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg even goals	52.6%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Freiburg odd goals	47.4%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.5%	27.9%	23.1%	1.21×	3.58
HT 1-0	18.6%	18.6%	19.2%	0.97×	5.38
HT 0-1	16.2%	18.6%	16.6%	1.12×	5.39
HT 1-1	11.9%	11.0%	9.7%	1.13×	9.08
HT 2-0	6.8%	6.9%	9.4%	0.73×	14.49
Any other HT score	6.4%	6.9%	6.9%	1.00×	14.50
HT 0-2	5.2%	6.9%	7.2%	0.96×	14.52
HT 2-1	4.3%	2.4%	4.2%	0.57×	42.00
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.03
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.4%	1.3%	1.76×	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	24.0%	21.8%	20.4%	1.07×	4.58
Draw at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	22.5%	21.8%	9.7%	2.24×	4.59
Freiburg at HT / Freiburg at FT	17.2%	16.7%	28.2%	0.59×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.6%	6.0%	13.6%	0.44×	16.56
Freiburg at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	8.5%	6.0%	3.6%	1.68×	16.59
Freiburg at HT / Draw at FT	7.8%	6.0%	5.2%	1.15×	16.61
Draw at HT / Freiburg at FT	6.7%	6.0%	10.9%	0.55×	16.64
Bayern Munich at HT / Draw at FT	2.7%	3.5%	6.0%	0.58×	28.66
Bayern Munich at HT / Freiburg at FT	1.1%	3.5%	3.3%	1.06×	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score last	58.9%	56.6%	44.4%	1.27×	1.77
Freiburg to score last	38.7%	38.7%	49.9%	0.78×	2.58
No goal scored	2.4%	4.2%	5.8%	0.73×	23.55

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.6%	95.7%	94.2%	1.02×	1.05
Bayern Munich to lead by 1 at any time	71.8%	74.2%	52.2%	1.42×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	61.2%	61.3%	55.6%	1.10×	1.63
Freiburg to lead by 1 at any time	47.2%	44.6%	60.1%	0.74×	2.25
Bayern Munich to lead by 2 at any time	43.2%	39.2%	23.4%	1.67×	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	28.0%	25.5%	25.5%	1.00×	3.92
Bayern Munich to lead by 3 at any time	21.8%	19.6%	9.9%	1.98×	5.09
Freiburg to lead by 2 at any time	18.7%	15.0%	33.0%	0.45×	6.68
Freiburg to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.7%	15.7%	0.42×	14.96

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich most corners	54.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Freiburg most corners	33.8%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.3%	83.4%	82.9%	1.01×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.3%	83.4%	77.8%	1.07×	1.20
2-5 goals	71.4%	72.4%	70.8%	1.02×	1.38
1-4 goals	65.9%	68.8%	72.0%	0.96×	1.45
3-6 goals	63.6%	63.3%	58.5%	1.08×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.9%	59.1%	59.9%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.6%	53.2%	51.5%	1.03×	1.88
1-3 goals	46.5%	48.5%	50.4%	0.96×	2.06
4-6 goals	42.8%	43.6%	39.7%	1.10×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	40.6%	1.07×	2.30
2-3 goals	37.5%	39.2%	38.3%	1.02×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.8%	35.2%	32.6%	1.08×	2.84
1-2 goals	25.7%	30.2%	31.6%	0.96×	3.31
5-6 goals	23.4%	24.5%	18.1%	1.35×	4.08
7+ goals	8.3%	8.9%	4.3%	2.05×	11.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich never behind	50.4%	62.3%	39.9%	1.56×	1.61
Freiburg never behind	25.7%	29.9%	47.8%	0.63×	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	45.7%	1.12×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	54.3%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.6%	52.5%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.4%	47.5%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.5%	51.9%	53.1%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.5%	48.1%	46.9%	1.03×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.6%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.6%	87.6%	82.0%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	82.8%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	71.9%	72.5%	62.7%	1.16×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	68.3%	66.3%	77.7%	0.85×	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	51.1%	52.5%	43.9%	1.20×	1.91
Under 3.5 goals	48.9%	47.5%	56.1%	0.85×	2.11
Over 4.5 goals	31.7%	33.7%	22.3%	1.51×	2.97
Under 2.5 goals	28.1%	27.5%	37.3%	0.74×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	17.2%	17.7%	11.4%	1.56×	5.65
Under 1.5 goals	11.4%	12.4%	18.0%	0.69×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	2.4%	4.6%	5.8%	0.78×	21.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	90.9%	92.4%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	86.3%	86.7%	77.7%	1.12×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	79.8%	75.9%	87.2%	0.87×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.5%	61.9%	54.1%	1.15×	1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	60.7%	61.9%	71.6%	0.86×	1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	39.3%	38.1%	28.4%	1.34×	2.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.5%	38.1%	45.9%	0.83×	2.63
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	20.2%	24.1%	12.8%	1.89×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	13.7%	13.3%	22.3%	0.60×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	9.1%	7.6%	4.7%	1.63×	13.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.1%	85.9%	84.6%	1.02×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.5%	71.9%	76.9%	0.93×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.3%	63.1%	58.6%	1.08×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.7%	36.9%	41.4%	0.89×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.5%	28.1%	23.1%	1.22×	3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.9%	14.1%	15.4%	0.91×	7.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.5%	89.5%	84.7%	1.06×	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	68.2%	68.7%	55.6%	1.24×	1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	54.9%	73.0%	0.75×	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	45.1%	27.0%	1.67×	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	31.8%	31.3%	44.4%	0.70×	3.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.5%	10.5%	15.3%	0.69×	9.50

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg not to score in both halves	72.7%	73.9%	64.2%	1.15×	1.35
Bayern Munich not to score in both halves	62.3%	63.6%	72.3%	0.88×	1.57
Bayern Munich to score in both halves	37.7%	36.4%	27.7%	1.31×	2.75
Freiburg to score in both halves	27.3%	26.1%	35.8%	0.73×	3.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	69.0%	60.0%	59.4%	1.01×	1.67
Only Bayern Munich scores	20.4%	22.2%	15.1%	1.47×	4.50
Only Freiburg scores	8.2%	7.1%	19.9%	0.36×	14.03
Neither team scores	2.4%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.74

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.8%	22.6%	19.0%	1.19×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.4%	17.5%	21.7%	0.80×	5.73
6 or more goals	17.2%	17.5%	11.4%	1.53×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	16.7%	17.5%	19.5%	0.90×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	14.4%	12.1%	11.1%	1.10×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	9.0%	7.6%	12.3%	0.62×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	2.4%	4.5%	5.8%	0.76×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.8%	35.9%	35.7%	1.01×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.5%	28.2%	23.1%	1.22×	3.55
2 goals in 1st half	23.8%	21.5%	26.1%	0.83×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	15.9%	15.6%	15.4%	1.01×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	68.2%	61.8%	55.6%	1.11×	1.62
1 goal in 2nd half	22.3%	22.8%	29.2%	0.78×	4.39
No goals in 2nd half	9.5%	10.7%	15.3%	0.70×	9.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg not to win both halves	94.3%	94.2%	84.0%	1.12×	1.06
Bayern Munich not to win both halves	83.9%	84.0%	90.9%	0.92×	1.19
Bayern Munich to win both halves	16.1%	16.0%	9.1%	1.75×	6.23
Freiburg to win both halves	5.7%	5.8%	16.0%	0.36×	17.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win either half	69.7%	67.9%	49.3%	1.38×	1.47
Freiburg to win neither half	55.1%	59.0%	41.8%	1.41×	1.70
Freiburg to win either half	44.9%	41.0%	58.2%	0.71×	2.44
Bayern Munich to win neither half	30.3%	32.1%	50.7%	0.63×	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg not to win to nil	91.9%	92.1%	80.1%	1.15×	1.09
Bayern Munich not to win to nil	79.6%	78.1%	84.9%	0.92×	1.28
Bayern Munich to win to nil	20.4%	21.9%	15.1%	1.45×	4.58
Freiburg to win to nil	8.2%	7.9%	19.9%	0.40×	12.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich by 1	21.1%	24.1%	16.6%	1.45×	4.15
Draw	20.1%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15
Bayern Munich by 3+	17.5%	17.0%	7.2%	2.37×	5.87
Bayern Munich by 2	16.4%	17.0%	9.9%	1.73×	5.87
Freiburg by 1	13.8%	11.8%	17.7%	0.67×	8.51
Freiburg by 2	7.1%	7.2%	12.7%	0.57×	13.91
Freiburg by 3+	4.0%	2.7%	12.0%	0.23×	36.78