Freiburg v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 12
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.71 – -0.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
48.3%
Draw
26.6%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
25.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.64–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.17 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.29 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 22' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Scally |
| 27' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Günter |
| 32' |
Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 37' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 43' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Lukas Ullrich | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Bolin |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 47' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nico Elvedi | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 60' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Bolin |
| 60' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Osterhage |
| 62' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 62' |
Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.68 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 69' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Elvedi |
| 73' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Sander |
| 81' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Wael Mohya | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | Kevin Stöger |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 88' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Franck Honorat FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| Philipp Sander MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.52 |
| Kota Takai DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lukas Ullrich DML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Hugo Bolin MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.61 |
| Wael Mohya Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jens Castrop Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Patrick Osterhage DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Günter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Bruno Ogbus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Lucas Höler Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |