Freiburg v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 13
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.52 – 0.26
Goals − xG
-0.14 – -0.74
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
60.6%
Draw
21.2%
FC Heidenheim win
18.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLWWWWDWL last 10
scored 22
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 14.0 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.17–1.08 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 2.14 xGFC Heidenheim 1.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 13' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 15' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 18' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 23' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 27' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 27' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 36' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 37' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 41' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Schöppner |
| 42' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 45' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 52' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 58' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mathias Honsak |
| 60' |
FC Heidenheim |
Niklas Dorsch | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 63' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 66' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christian Günter |
| 72' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 73' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 76' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 77' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 79' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 82' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 87' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Conteh |
| 90' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Conteh |
| 92' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Ogbus |
| 94' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Höler FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.26 | 1.17 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Maximilian Eggestein MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Vincenzo Grifo ML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.98 | 0.70 |
| Bruno Ogbus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lukas Kübler DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Christian Günter DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Johan Manzambi MC | 71 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 1.10 |
| Derry Scherhant MR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.68 |
| Yuito Suzuki Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nicolas Höfler Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Jordy Makengo Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Philipp Lienhart Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Marnon Busch DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.65 |
| Hennes Behrens DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.64 |
| Mathias Honsak ML | 79 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic MR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| Julian Niehues DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Budu Zivzivadze Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| Christian Conteh Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 |