Freiburg v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 0.49
Goals − xG
-0.94 – +0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
52.0%
Draw
26.4%
Hamburger SV win
21.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 11 from 11.2 expected and conceded 24 from 25.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.2 xG
conceded 24
from 25.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.74–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.05 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 2.94 xGHamburger SV 0.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Yuito Suzuki |
| 12' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christian Günter |
| 13' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 18' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 22' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Günter |
| 25' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 26' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 26' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 40' |
 Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 41' |
Hamburger SV |
Damion Downs | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 44' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Goal | Miro Muheim |
| 52' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 55' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 55' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 60' |
Hamburger SV |
Bakery Jatta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 68' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 74' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Günter |
| 75' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 75' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 81' |
Hamburger SV |
Miro Muheim | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit |
| 82' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 82' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Günter |
| 89' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 91' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 94' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 96' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.97 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.66 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Lukas Kübler DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.72 |
| Christian Günter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Philipp Treu AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| Lucas Höler FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.06 | 0.88 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Anthony Jung Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Igor Matanovic Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Patrick Osterhage Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste Sub | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| Nicolas Höfler Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Bakery Jatta DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Fábio Vieira FWR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Damion Downs FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe FWL | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Elfadli DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jordan Torunarigha Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Guilherme Ramos Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |