Freiburg v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 28 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 15
On target
1 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 11
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.13 – 0.38
Goals − xG
-0.26 – -1.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
54.1%
Draw
22.5%
Hoffenheim win
23.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–1.25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.97–1.17 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.26 xGHoffenheim 2.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Freiburg |
Junior Adamu | 0.28 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 2' |
Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.78 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Junior Adamu |
| 6' |
 Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Chaves |
| 12' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.97 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vladimir Coufal |
| 14' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 20' |
Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Hoffenheim |
Arthur Chaves | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bernardo |
| 35' |
Hoffenheim |
Robin Hranác | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 35' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Prass |
| 45' |
Freiburg |
Junior Adamu | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 51' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 56' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Freiburg |
Patrick Osterhage | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 77' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 86' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ihlas Bebou |
| 89' |
Hoffenheim |
Muhammed Damar | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Muhammed Damar |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Osterhage DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Jung DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Junior Adamu FW | 71 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.78 | 0.00 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 0.04 |
| Philipp Treu Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Lukas Kübler DR | 37 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Matanovic Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Höler Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Rosenfelder Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernardo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.97 | 1.58 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Bazoumana Touré AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alexander Prass AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Muhammed Damar Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Tim Lemperle Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Grischa Prömel Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ihlas Bebou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Umut Tohumcu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |