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Freiburg v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 3 November 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

0–0
0.46 – 0.90 xG
Shots
10 – 9
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.79
Goals − xG
-0.46 – -0.92
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.50.81.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Freiburg 0.46 xGMainz 05 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lukas Kübler 18' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Vincenzo Grifo 25' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 27' — Missed Shot (0.57 xG, From Corner)Kaishu Sano 27' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Junior Adamu 33' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Ritsu Doan 44' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Eggestein 47' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Anthony Caci 50' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Eggestein 54' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nadiem Amiri 58' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Vincenzo Grifo 62' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Vincenzo Grifo 62' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Patrick Osterhage 70' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Armindo Sieb 75' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Armindo Sieb 84' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Set Piece)Dominik Kohr 84' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Armindo Sieb 85' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Matthias Ginter 89' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Dominik Kohr 93' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Freiburg attacking right Mainz 05 attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
18' Freiburg Lukas Kübler 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Vincenzo Grifo
25' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ritsu Doan
27' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.57 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
27' Mainz 05 Kaishu Sano 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Anthony Caci
33' Freiburg Junior Adamu 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Eren Sami Dinkci
44' Freiburg Ritsu Doan 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Maximilian Eggestein
47' Freiburg Maximilian Eggestein 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Vincenzo Grifo
50' Mainz 05 Anthony Caci 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jae-Sung Lee
54' Freiburg Maximilian Eggestein 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vincenzo Grifo
58' Mainz 05 Nadiem Amiri 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Philipp Mwene
62' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Junior Adamu
62' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Christian Günter
70' Freiburg Patrick Osterhage 0.06 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Christian Günter
75' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Anthony Caci
84' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.12 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Dominik Kohr
84' Mainz 05 Dominik Kohr 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
85' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Anthony Caci
89' Freiburg Matthias Ginter 0.05 Set Piece Missed Shot Christian Günter
93' Mainz 05 Dominik Kohr 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Freiburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Patrick Osterhage DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.01
Matthias Ginter DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Lukas Kübler DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.01
Christian Günter DL 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.15 0.05
Eren Sami Dinkci AMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.20
Noah Atubolu GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Ritsu Doan AMR 88 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.02 0.04
Junior Adamu FW 72 0 0 1 1 0.13 0.06 0.20
Vincenzo Grifo AML 66 0 0 3 3 0.12 0.08 0.15
Maximilian Eggestein DMC 66 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.03 0.22
Philipp Lienhart DC 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Nicolas Höfler Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Noah Weißhaupt Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Max Rosenfelder Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Michael Gregoritsch Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kiliann Sildillia Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Mainz 05

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kaishu Sano MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.05
Dominik Kohr DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.03 0.12 0.06
Anthony Caci DMR 90 0 0 1 3 0.03 0.14 0.07
Robin Zentner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Philipp Mwene DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.09
Paul Nebel AMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Maxim Leitsch DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Jae-Sung Lee AMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.07
Stefan Bell DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Nadiem Amiri MC 74 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Jonathan Burkardt FW 46 0 0 1 0 0.57 0.00 0.00
Armindo Sieb Sub 44 0 0 3 0 0.23 0.00 0.05
Hong Hyun-Seok Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Nikolas Veratschnig Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Silvan Widmer Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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