Freiburg v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 18
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 12
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.74
Goals − xG
-0.51 – -2.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
40.6%
Draw
29.3%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
30.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.55–1.32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 0.51 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 2.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
El Chadaille Bitshiabu | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 9' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 13' |
 Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 19' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 22' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Willi Orban |
| 25' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 25' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Sesko |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 37' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lutsharel Geertruida |
| 52' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Lutsharel Geertruida | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 54' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 58' |
Freiburg |
Christian Günter | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 60' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 63' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 63' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kiliann Sildillia |
| 64' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 65' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
El Chadaille Bitshiabu | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 71' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Lutsharel Geertruida | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | El Chadaille Bitshiabu |
| 72' |
Freiburg |
Kiliann Sildillia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Philipp Lienhart |
| 76' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 80' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Günter |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Kiliann Sildillia | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yussuf Poulsen |
| 91' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Castello Lukeba | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yussuf Poulsen |
| 91' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tidiam Gomis |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Höler AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ritsu Doan AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Kiliann Sildillia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Christian Günter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Patrick Osterhage DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Junior Adamu FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci AML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Vincenzo Grifo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 1.12 |
| Bote Baku MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.99 |
| Xavi Simons ML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.48 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Arthur Vermeeren MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kevin Kampl MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amadou Haidara Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolas Seiwald Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Castello Lukeba Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.57 |