Freiburg v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 16 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 14
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.12 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+1.43 – -0.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
29.8%
Draw
24.4%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
45.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLWWWWDWL last 10
scored 22
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 14.0 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 23 from 24.1 expected and conceded 21 from 21.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLWLWLWL last 10
scored 23
from 24.1 xG
conceded 21
from 21.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.26–1.61 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.65 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 2.57 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 1.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 3' |
 Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 10' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 13' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 23' |
Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.60 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 23' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Igor Matanovic |
| 25' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Johan Manzambi |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yan Diomande |
| 33' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 44' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Willi Orban |
| 46' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.48 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Jordy Makengo |
| 46' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 47' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 52' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 52' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 55' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Conrad Harder |
| 58' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Willi Orban |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bote Baku |
| 74' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Igor Matanovic |
| 79' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 87' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Bakayoko |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry Scherhant AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.06 | 0.63 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.85 | 1.28 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Johan Manzambi AMC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Nicolas Höfler DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Vincenzo Grifo Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Kübler Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Höler Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bruno Ogbus Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximilian Philipp Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| Assan Ouédraogo MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.69 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Max Finkgrafe DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.94 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Yan Diomande FWL | 84 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.06 | 0.91 |
| Conrad Harder FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Brajan Gruda FWR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Benjamin Henrichs DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Bote Baku Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Antonio Nusa Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Rômulo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.42 |