Freiburg v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Freiburg

14:30 UTC

RasenBallsport Leipzig

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 819h before kick-off

Freiburg win

36.4%

model 36.9%

Draw

22.0%

model 22.8%

RasenBallsport Leipzig win

41.7%

model 40.3%

362242

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.8%
1-2 8.4%
2-1 8.0%
2-2 6.9%
0-1 6.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.3%	Under 2.5	34.7%
BTTS yes	66.2%	BTTS no	33.8%
Freiburg 1+	80.6%	Freiburg 2+	48.8%
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1+	82.1%	RasenBallsport Leipzig 2+	51.4%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.72. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Odd number of goals

Odd/Even · usually 46%

50.3% fair odds 1.99

moderate signal · 2988 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 85%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

RasenBallsport Leipzig carry the stronger rating, 1633 Elo against 1588.
RasenBallsport Leipzig have created 2.25 xG a match over their last five while Freiburg have allowed 1.40.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Away from home RasenBallsport Leipzig average 1.24 xG a match.

Risk factors

RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 3.20 a match from 2.25 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

RasenBallsport Leipzig have an estimated 41.7% win probability, against 36.4% for Freiburg and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for Freiburg and 1.72 for RasenBallsport Leipzig.

Why Freiburg

Freiburg have created 1.60 xG a match over their last five while RasenBallsport Leipzig have allowed 2.17. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Freiburg average 1.93 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: RasenBallsport Leipzig were missing 2.33 expected goal involvements a match against 0.70.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.64 to 1.72. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why RasenBallsport Leipzig can win

RasenBallsport Leipzig carry the stronger rating, 1633 Elo against 1588. RasenBallsport Leipzig have created 2.25 xG a match over their last five while Freiburg have allowed 1.40. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home RasenBallsport Leipzig average 1.24 xG a match.

Key players

Freiburg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Igor Matanovic (0.39), Yuito Suzuki (0.29), Johan Manzambi (0.25). RasenBallsport Leipzig's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Christoph Baumgartner (0.56), Rômulo (0.56), Yan Diomande (0.52).

Availability

2 of Freiburg's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Freiburg's last eleven are new to the club this window. 3 of RasenBallsport Leipzig's top three contributors did not start their last match. RasenBallsport Leipzig changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of RasenBallsport Leipzig's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Freiburg: 52% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.64 xG a match from set pieces. RasenBallsport Leipzig: 51% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.57 xG a match from set pieces. Freiburg's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

RasenBallsport Leipzig are the model's most likely outcome at 41.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

LDLWWWWDWL last 10 scored 22 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 14.0 xG

RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWLWLWLWLW last 10 scored 24 from 22.6 xG conceded 20 from 21.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372340	1.64–1.72	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	412336	1.68–1.55	1-1 10%	63%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to win	40.7%	42.9%	42.1%	1.02×	2.33
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win	36.8%	36.4%	33.3%	1.09×	2.75
Draw	22.5%	24.5%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg & both teams score	25.0%	21.8%	22.1%	0.99×	4.58
RasenBallsport Leipzig & both teams score	22.8%	21.8%	18.5%	1.18×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.56
Freiburg & not both score	15.7%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.57
RasenBallsport Leipzig & not both score	14.0%	13.3%	15.0%	0.89×	7.54
Draw & not both score	3.3%	4.9%	5.9%	0.82×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg & over 1.5	34.9%	30.8%	35.6%	0.87×	3.25
RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 1.5	31.4%	30.7%	27.6%	1.12×	3.25
Freiburg & over 2.5	29.9%	26.1%	29.8%	0.88×	3.84
RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 2.5	26.8%	26.1%	23.4%	1.11×	3.84
Freiburg & under 3.5	22.1%	21.6%	21.9%	0.99×	4.63
RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 3.5	20.4%	21.6%	19.3%	1.12×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.56
Freiburg & over 3.5	18.5%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 3.5	16.4%	18.0%	14.2%	1.27×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.8%	12.8%	15.3%	0.84×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.8%	12.8%	15.3%	0.84×	7.79
Freiburg & under 2.5	10.8%	12.8%	12.4%	1.03×	7.79
RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 2.5	10.0%	7.9%	10.1%	0.79×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.63
Freiburg & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.7%	1.19×	12.63
RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	5.9%	1.34×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.3%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (1UP)	60.1%	62.6%	60.2%	1.04×	1.60
RasenBallsport Leipzig (1UP)	56.9%	58.1%	51.9%	1.12×	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (2UP)	40.7%	47.0%	45.4%	1.04×	2.13
RasenBallsport Leipzig (2UP)	36.8%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.67

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to win 2nd half	36.5%	36.2%	37.5%	0.96×	2.76
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win 2nd half	33.9%	34.1%	28.9%	1.18×	2.93
2nd half drawn	29.6%	26.1%	33.7%	0.78×	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.9%	75.5%	79.5%	0.95×	1.32
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.8%	60.4%	56.4%	1.07×	1.66
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 in 2nd half	35.2%	39.6%	43.6%	0.91×	2.53
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.1%	24.5%	20.5%	1.20×	4.08

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.0%	74.2%	74.5%	1.00×	1.35
Freiburg over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.6%	70.7%	63.4%	1.12×	1.41
Freiburg under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.4%	29.3%	36.6%	0.80×	3.42
Freiburg over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.0%	25.8%	25.5%	1.01×	3.88

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (+2.5)	90.9%	92.1%	88.0%	1.05×	1.09
RasenBallsport Leipzig (+1.5)	78.7%	78.5%	75.6%	1.04×	1.27
Freiburg (+0.5)	63.2%	62.9%	66.7%	0.94×	1.59
RasenBallsport Leipzig (+0.5)	59.3%	57.0%	57.9%	0.98×	1.75
Freiburg (-0.5)	40.7%	43.0%	42.1%	1.02×	2.33
RasenBallsport Leipzig (-0.5)	36.8%	37.1%	33.3%	1.11×	2.70
Freiburg (-1.5)	21.3%	21.5%	24.4%	0.88×	4.65
Freiburg (-2.5)	9.1%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede	82.7%	81.5%	79.3%	1.03×	1.23
RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet	17.3%	18.5%	20.7%	0.89×	5.42

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet in 1st half	51.6%	50.5%	48.4%	1.04×	1.98
RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede in 1st half	48.4%	49.5%	51.6%	0.96×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede in 2nd half	66.6%	65.7%	63.4%	1.04×	1.52
RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet in 2nd half	33.4%	34.3%	36.6%	0.94×	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 6.5 corners	88.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 5.5 corners	79.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 2.5 corners	67.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 4.5 corners	67.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 3.5 corners	50.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 3.5 corners	49.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 4.5 corners	33.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 2.5 corners	32.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 5.5 corners	20.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 6.5 corners	11.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 3.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 goals	81.1%	81.5%	74.1%	1.10×	1.23
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 2.5 goals	76.7%	76.2%	79.1%	0.96×	1.31
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 goals	50.5%	53.5%	57.3%	0.93×	1.87
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 goals	49.5%	46.5%	42.7%	1.09×	2.15
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 2.5 goals	23.3%	23.8%	20.9%	1.14×	4.21
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 goals	18.9%	18.5%	25.9%	0.71×	5.40
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 3.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 in 1st half	87.2%	89.4%	85.8%	1.04×	1.12
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 in 1st half	53.8%	55.5%	54.6%	1.02×	1.80
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 in 1st half	46.2%	44.5%	45.4%	0.98×	2.25
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 in 1st half	12.8%	10.6%	14.2%	0.74×	9.43

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig scores more in 2nd half	45.2%	48.0%	36.4%	1.32×	2.08
RasenBallsport Leipzig scores equally in both	33.3%	33.2%	39.8%	0.84×	3.01
RasenBallsport Leipzig scores more in 1st half	21.5%	21.8%	24.0%	0.91×	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (away no bet)	64.3%	62.0%	63.0%	0.98×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.7%	38.0%	37.0%	1.03×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig even goals	51.8%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
RasenBallsport Leipzig odd goals	48.2%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.9%	81.2%	75.2%	1.08×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.1%	18.8%	24.8%	0.76×	5.31

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	76.6%	72.0%	72.1%	1.00×	1.39
Both halves under 1.5 goals	23.4%	28.0%	27.9%	1.00×	3.57

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.1%	62.5%	66.2%	0.94×	1.60
Freiburg to score 2+ in a row	40.8%	38.6%	42.3%	0.91×	2.59
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 2+ in a row	37.7%	36.6%	34.3%	1.07×	2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.4%	25.0%	29.2%	0.86×	3.99
Freiburg to score 3+ in a row	15.0%	16.2%	17.8%	0.91×	6.19
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 3+ in a row	13.1%	12.0%	12.3%	0.98×	8.30

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg corners (+3.5)	94.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Freiburg corners (+2.5)	91.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Freiburg corners (+1.5)	86.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (+3.5)	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Freiburg corners (-1.5)	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (+2.5)	50.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Freiburg corners (-2.5)	49.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (+1.5)	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Freiburg corners (-3.5)	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (-1.5)	13.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (-2.5)	8.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (-3.5)	5.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	73.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	63.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	42.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	36.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	26.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.6%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
2-2	7.0%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
0-1	5.4%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
1-0	5.7%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
2-0	5.0%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
Any other score	6.0%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.51
3-1	4.9%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.29
0-0	3.3%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.30
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
1-3	4.4%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.29
1-4	1.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.31
2-3	3.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.30
2-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.31
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.30
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
3-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.31
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
4-1	2.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.31
4-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.31
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	3.86×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (2nd half DNB)	51.9%	53.4%	56.5%	0.95×	1.87
RasenBallsport Leipzig (2nd half DNB)	48.1%	46.6%	43.5%	1.07×	2.15

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg leading at HT (DNB)	52.2%	56.3%	55.4%	1.02×	1.78
RasenBallsport Leipzig leading at HT (DNB)	47.8%	43.7%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or RasenBallsport Leipzig (12)	77.5%	75.5%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Freiburg or draw (1X)	63.2%	63.6%	66.7%	0.95×	1.57
RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw (X2)	59.3%	57.1%	57.9%	0.99×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or draw at HT	71.5%	74.7%	70.8%	1.06×	1.34
RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw at HT	68.9%	67.2%	63.7%	1.06×	1.49
Freiburg or RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT	59.6%	57.7%	65.4%	0.88×	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or draw (1UP)	63.2%	71.6%	73.9%	0.97×	1.40
RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw (1UP)	59.3%	63.1%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or RasenBallsport Leipzig in 2nd half	70.4%	73.9%	66.3%	1.11×	1.35
Freiburg or draw in 2nd half	66.1%	65.9%	71.1%	0.93×	1.52
RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw in 2nd half	63.5%	63.8%	62.5%	1.02×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.0%	58.7%	54.5%	1.08×	1.70
Neither half drawn	42.0%	41.3%	45.5%	0.91×	2.42

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (DNB)	52.5%	50.9%	55.8%	0.91×	1.97
RasenBallsport Leipzig (DNB)	47.5%	49.1%	44.2%	1.11×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to score first	49.7%	46.1%	51.3%	0.90×	2.17
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score first	47.0%	46.0%	42.9%	1.07×	2.17
No goal scored	3.3%	4.3%	5.9%	0.73×	23.17

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.1%	58.4%	59.3%	0.99×	1.71
Not both teams to score	32.9%	41.6%	40.7%	1.02×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.5%	47.5%	49.9%	0.95×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	24.0%	27.9%	28.1%	0.99×	3.59
Both score & under 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.07
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	12.7%	0.65×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	74.0%	80.6%	79.3%	1.02×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	26.0%	19.4%	20.7%	0.93×	5.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	56.8%	65.1%	65.0%	1.00×	1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half	43.2%	34.9%	35.0%	1.00×	2.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	44.2%	50.7%	51.3%	0.99×	1.97
Both score 2nd half only	33.5%	28.0%	28.2%	0.99×	3.57
Both score 1st half only	12.7%	10.8%	13.8%	0.78×	9.27
Both score in both halves	9.6%	6.9%	7.0%	0.99×	14.55

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.7%	81.2%	79.4%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.3%	18.8%	20.6%	0.91×	5.31

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.7%	59.7%	67.1%	0.89×	1.68
A half without a goal	36.3%	40.3%	32.9%	1.22×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.9%	42.1%	38.1%	1.11×	2.37
4-6 goals	38.7%	35.1%	39.7%	0.88×	2.85
0-1 goals	14.5%	17.0%	18.2%	0.93×	5.89
7+ goals	5.9%	7.6%	4.3%	1.77×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 1	31.5%	33.8%	31.6%	1.07×	2.96
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 2	26.2%	27.4%	21.9%	1.25×	3.65
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 3+	23.3%	22.3%	20.9%	1.07×	4.49
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 0	18.9%	19.6%	25.9%	0.75×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to score exactly 1	30.3%	32.6%	28.9%	1.13×	3.07
Freiburg to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	23.3%	1.14×	3.77
Freiburg to score 3+	25.8%	26.5%	27.4%	0.97×	3.77
Freiburg to score exactly 0	17.3%	18.8%	20.7%	0.90×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.4%	42.3%	34.6%	1.22×	2.37
Freiburg leading at HT	31.1%	32.8%	36.4%	0.90×	3.05
RasenBallsport Leipzig leading at HT	28.5%	25.3%	29.2%	0.87×	3.95

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg -1: 2	59.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Freiburg -1: 1	21.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Freiburg -1: X	19.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:1)	59.3%	55.9%	57.9%	0.96×	1.79
Freiburg (0:1)	21.3%	24.2%	24.4%	0.99×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	19.4%	17.8%	17.8%	1.00×	5.60

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:2)	78.7%	79.4%	75.6%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.2%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.10
Freiburg (0:2)	9.1%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:3)	90.9%	92.7%	88.0%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.9%	5.8%	4.9%	1.19×	17.25
Freiburg (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	7.3%	0.33×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:4)	96.8%	98.1%	92.7%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	5.0%	0.24×	81.92
Freiburg (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	82.06

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (1:0)	63.2%	65.3%	66.7%	0.98×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	18.4%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.85
RasenBallsport Leipzig (1:0)	18.4%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (2:0)	81.6%	84.6%	83.3%	1.02×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.9%	10.3%	9.8%	1.05×	9.74
RasenBallsport Leipzig (2:0)	7.5%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	57.1%	59.7%	47.6%	1.25×	1.68
1st half highest scoring	22.3%	24.4%	25.8%	0.94×	4.11
Halves equal	20.6%	24.3%	26.7%	0.91×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede	81.1%	80.9%	74.1%	1.09×	1.24
Freiburg clean sheet	18.9%	19.1%	25.9%	0.74×	5.22

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg clean sheet in 1st half	53.8%	55.5%	54.6%	1.02×	1.80
Freiburg to concede in 1st half	46.2%	44.5%	45.4%	0.98×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede in 2nd half	64.8%	60.0%	56.4%	1.06×	1.67
Freiburg clean sheet in 2nd half	35.2%	40.0%	43.6%	0.92×	2.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg over 2.5 corners	90.6%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Freiburg over 3.5 corners	81.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Freiburg over 4.5 corners	69.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Freiburg over 5.5 corners	56.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Freiburg under 6.5 corners	56.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Freiburg over 6.5 corners	43.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Freiburg under 5.5 corners	43.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Freiburg under 4.5 corners	30.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Freiburg under 3.5 corners	18.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Freiburg under 2.5 corners	9.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 3.5 goals	89.8%	87.3%	88.3%	0.99×	1.15
Freiburg over 0.5 goals	82.7%	82.2%	79.3%	1.04×	1.22
Freiburg under 2.5 goals	74.2%	74.3%	72.6%	1.02×	1.35
Freiburg over 1.5 goals	52.4%	53.2%	50.5%	1.05×	1.88
Freiburg under 1.5 goals	47.6%	46.8%	49.5%	0.95×	2.14
Freiburg over 2.5 goals	25.8%	25.7%	27.4%	0.94×	3.88
Freiburg under 0.5 goals	17.3%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.63
Freiburg over 3.5 goals	10.2%	12.7%	11.7%	1.09×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 1st half	85.8%	90.1%	80.7%	1.12×	1.11
Freiburg under 0.5 in 1st half	51.6%	50.3%	48.4%	1.04×	1.99
Freiburg over 0.5 in 1st half	48.4%	49.7%	51.6%	0.96×	2.01
Freiburg over 1.5 in 1st half	14.2%	9.9%	19.3%	0.51×	10.07

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg scores more in 2nd half	45.8%	47.0%	38.4%	1.22×	2.13
Freiburg scores equally in both	32.2%	33.2%	36.8%	0.90×	3.01
Freiburg scores more in 1st half	22.0%	21.1%	24.9%	0.85×	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (home no bet)	62.0%	60.0%	57.4%	1.05×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	38.0%	40.0%	42.6%	0.94×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg even goals	51.5%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Freiburg odd goals	48.5%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.8%	28.5%	23.6%	1.21×	3.51
HT 1-0	18.4%	18.5%	19.0%	0.98×	5.40
HT 0-1	17.2%	18.5%	16.5%	1.12×	5.41
HT 1-1	11.4%	11.0%	9.8%	1.12×	9.11
HT 2-0	6.1%	6.9%	9.3%	0.74×	14.48
Any other HT score	5.4%	6.9%	6.8%	1.01×	14.49
HT 0-2	5.3%	6.9%	7.1%	0.97×	14.49
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	4.2%	0.57×	41.96
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.4%	3.6%	0.67×	41.98
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.4%	1.3%	1.78×	42.13

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg at HT / Freiburg at FT	22.5%	21.7%	27.9%	0.78×	4.61
RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT	19.9%	16.8%	20.3%	0.83×	5.95
Draw at HT / Freiburg at FT	14.8%	12.7%	11.3%	1.12×	7.90
Draw at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT	13.7%	12.7%	9.8%	1.29×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.91
Freiburg at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.1%	5.2%	1.17×	16.49
RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.1%	5.9%	1.02×	16.50
RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / Freiburg at FT	3.4%	3.5%	3.3%	1.06×	28.85
Freiburg at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT	3.2%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to score last	49.7%	46.6%	50.1%	0.93×	2.15
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score last	47.0%	46.5%	44.1%	1.05×	2.15
No goal scored	3.3%	4.3%	5.9%	0.73×	23.17

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.7%	95.6%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Freiburg to lead by 1 at any time	60.1%	61.2%	60.2%	1.02×	1.64
RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 1 at any time	56.9%	54.9%	51.9%	1.06×	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.8%	54.9%	55.5%	0.99×	1.82
Freiburg to lead by 2 at any time	29.7%	25.4%	32.8%	0.78×	3.93
RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 2 at any time	26.6%	25.3%	23.4%	1.08×	3.95
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.4%	19.6%	25.4%	0.77×	5.11
Freiburg to lead by 3 at any time	12.1%	10.5%	15.7%	0.67×	9.52
RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.5%	9.8%	1.07×	9.55

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg most corners	70.3%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
RasenBallsport Leipzig most corners	20.9%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	8.8%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.5%	83.4%	83.0%	1.01×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.6%	78.7%	77.6%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	70.7%	1.02×	1.38
1-4 goals	70.8%	72.3%	71.9%	1.01×	1.38
3-6 goals	60.5%	63.3%	58.4%	1.08×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.6%	59.1%	59.6%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.2%	53.2%	51.4%	1.03×	1.88
1-3 goals	52.1%	53.2%	50.4%	1.06×	1.88
2-3 goals	40.9%	43.6%	38.1%	1.14×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	40.3%	1.08×	2.29
4-6 goals	38.7%	39.2%	39.7%	0.99×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.4%	35.2%	32.7%	1.08×	2.84
1-2 goals	30.3%	35.2%	31.7%	1.11×	2.84
5-6 goals	20.0%	24.5%	18.2%	1.34×	4.09
7+ goals	5.9%	8.9%	4.3%	2.06×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg never behind	39.8%	44.2%	48.1%	0.92×	2.26
RasenBallsport Leipzig never behind	36.6%	44.1%	39.8%	1.11×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	45.8%	1.11×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	54.2%	0.91×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.9%	51.8%	52.8%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.1%	48.2%	47.2%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.9%	53.1%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.1%	46.9%	1.03×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.7%	95.4%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	86.8%	87.6%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	85.6%	87.6%	81.8%	1.07×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	74.0%	72.5%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	66.4%	66.3%	62.5%	1.06×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	55.4%	58.6%	56.1%	1.04×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	44.6%	41.4%	43.9%	0.94×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	33.6%	33.7%	37.5%	0.90×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	26.0%	27.5%	22.4%	1.23×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	14.5%	12.4%	18.2%	0.68×	8.05
Over 5.5 goals	13.2%	12.4%	11.3%	1.10×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.3%	4.6%	5.9%	0.77×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.6%	92.4%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	84.9%	81.1%	87.3%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	82.1%	81.1%	77.4%	1.05×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	68.1%	67.5%	71.5%	0.94×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.1%	55.8%	53.9%	1.03×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.9%	44.2%	46.1%	0.96×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	31.9%	32.5%	28.5%	1.14×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	17.9%	18.9%	22.6%	0.84×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	15.1%	18.9%	12.7%	1.49×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.4%	7.6%	4.6%	1.64×	13.18

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.2%	89.0%	84.6%	1.05×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.2%	71.4%	76.4%	0.93×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.4%	63.2%	58.8%	1.08×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.6%	36.8%	41.2%	0.89×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.8%	28.6%	23.6%	1.21×	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.8%	11.0%	15.4%	0.71×	9.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.2%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	63.9%	61.4%	73.0%	0.84×	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	63.1%	61.4%	55.6%	1.10×	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	36.9%	38.6%	44.4%	0.87×	2.59
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	36.1%	38.6%	27.0%	1.43×	2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.8%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig not to score in both halves	70.1%	73.8%	72.3%	1.02×	1.36
Freiburg not to score in both halves	67.8%	70.1%	64.2%	1.09×	1.43
Freiburg to score in both halves	32.2%	29.9%	35.8%	0.84×	3.34
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score in both halves	29.9%	26.2%	27.7%	0.94×	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	67.1%	59.9%	59.3%	1.01×	1.67
Only Freiburg scores	15.7%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Only RasenBallsport Leipzig scores	14.0%	11.0%	15.0%	0.74×	9.06
Neither team scores	3.3%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.65

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	18.8%	1.20×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.1%	17.5%	19.4%	0.90×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.7%	17.5%	21.6%	0.81×	5.73
6 or more goals	13.2%	12.1%	11.3%	1.08×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	12.8%	12.1%	11.3%	1.08×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.2%	12.1%	12.4%	0.97×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.3%	4.5%	5.9%	0.75×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.6%	37.3%	35.3%	1.06×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.8%	28.5%	23.6%	1.21×	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.8%	21.5%	26.0%	0.83×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.8%	10.9%	15.4%	0.71×	9.15

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	63.1%	58.9%	55.6%	1.06×	1.70
1 goal in 2nd half	25.2%	29.3%	29.2%	1.00×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	11.8%	14.3%	15.3%	0.94×	6.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig not to win both halves	90.3%	94.1%	91.0%	1.03×	1.06
Freiburg not to win both halves	88.6%	88.0%	84.1%	1.05×	1.14
Freiburg to win both halves	11.4%	12.0%	15.9%	0.76×	8.34
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win both halves	9.7%	5.9%	9.1%	0.65×	16.90

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to win either half	56.3%	59.1%	58.0%	1.02×	1.69
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win either half	52.7%	54.3%	49.1%	1.11×	1.84
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win neither half	47.3%	45.7%	50.9%	0.90×	2.19
Freiburg to win neither half	43.7%	40.9%	42.0%	0.97×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig not to win to nil	86.0%	88.1%	85.0%	1.04×	1.14
Freiburg not to win to nil	84.3%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Freiburg to win to nil	15.7%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.92
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win to nil	14.0%	11.9%	15.0%	0.79×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.5%	24.1%	24.7%	0.97×	4.15
Freiburg by 1	19.4%	17.1%	17.8%	0.96×	5.86
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 1	18.4%	17.0%	16.7%	1.02×	5.87
Freiburg by 2	12.2%	11.8%	12.6%	0.93×	8.51
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 2	10.9%	11.7%	9.8%	1.20×	8.51
Freiburg by 3+	9.1%	7.2%	12.0%	0.60×	13.90
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 3+	7.5%	7.2%	7.1%	1.01×	13.91