Freiburg v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 7
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 4
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.64 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.33 – +0.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
44.8%
Draw
27.9%
St. Pauli win
27.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.01 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.67 xGSt. Pauli 0.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 14' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Lienhart |
| 14' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 27' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 39' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 61' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 66' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
 St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Connor Metcalfe |
| 71' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 84' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Louis Oppie |
| 84' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 88' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 92' |
St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.49 | 0.07 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.37 |
| Christian Günter DL | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Junior Adamu FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Matanovic Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jordy Makengo Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Patrick Osterhage Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Rosenfelder Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Oppie DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Pereira Lage FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Joel Chima Fujita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Connor Metcalfe FWR | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| Karol Mets DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| James Sands MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andréas Hountondji Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jackson Irvine Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Danel Sinani Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |