Freiburg v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 10
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.30
Goals − xG
-0.01 – +0.61
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
43.7%
Draw
31.0%
Union Berlin win
25.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLWWWWDWL last 10
scored 22
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 14.0 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.01 xGUnion Berlin 1.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Freiburg |
Kiliann Sildillia | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christian Günter |
| 13' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Benedict Hollerbach |
| 21' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 29' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 34' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 39' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Leite |
| 47' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tim Skarke |
| 59' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 71' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 76' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Philipp Lienhart |
| 90' |
Freiburg |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Gregoritsch |
| 96' |
Union Berlin |
László Bénes | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincenzo Grifo ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.77 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.43 |
| Ritsu Doan MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Patrick Osterhage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Michael Gregoritsch FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.81 |
| Maximilian Eggestein MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Kiliann Sildillia DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Christian Günter DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| Lucas Höler AMC | 61 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| Florian Müller Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lukas Kübler Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Johan Manzambi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.77 |
| Josip Juranovic DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 88 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| Benedict Hollerbach FWL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 0.77 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong FWR | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| László Bénes Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |