Freiburg v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 9
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-1.35 – -0.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
46.1%
Draw
28.0%
Union Berlin win
25.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.11 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.35 xGUnion Berlin 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Livan Burcu |
| 11' |
 Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 14' |
Freiburg |
Cyriaque Irié | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 18' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 19' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cyriaque Irié |
| 20' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 21' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 28' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Skarke |
| 31' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Freiburg |
Cyriaque Irié | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.18 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Freiburg |
Cyriaque Irié | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 68' |
Union Berlin |
Alex Kral | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 71' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 87' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 89' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Stanley N'Soki |
| 96' |
Freiburg |
Bruno Ogbus | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 100' |
Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 101' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 102' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Ogbus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.77 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.65 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Derry Scherhant AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Cyriaque Irié AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Lucas Höler AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yuito Suzuki Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.57 |
| Vincenzo Grifo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.66 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Christian Günter Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.08 | 0.71 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Derrick Köhn DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Stanley N'Soki DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Rani Khedira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matheo Raab GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Livan Burcu AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Janik Haberer DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Ilyas Ansah FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tim Skarke AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Josip Juranovic Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Rothe Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |