Freiburg v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Freiburg

14:30 UTC

Union Berlin

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 315h before kick-off

Freiburg win

51.1%

model 51.1%

Draw

22.2%

model 23.5%

Union Berlin win

26.7%

model 25.4%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.0%
2-1 9.7%
1-0 9.4%
2-0 8.2%
1-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.2%	Under 2.5	43.8%
BTTS yes	57.2%	BTTS no	42.8%
Freiburg 1+	82.8%	Freiburg 2+	52.5%
Union Berlin 1+	69.1%	Union Berlin 2+	32.8%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

97/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 50%

62.1% fair odds 1.61

strong signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 85%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Freiburg carry the stronger rating, 1588 Elo against 1461.
Freiburg have created 1.60 xG a match over their last five while Union Berlin have allowed 2.05.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Freiburg average 1.93 xG a match.
They have had 20 days' rest to Union Berlin's 14.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Freiburg have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for Union Berlin and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.76 for Freiburg and 1.17 for Union Berlin.

Why Freiburg

Freiburg carry the stronger rating, 1588 Elo against 1461. Freiburg have created 1.60 xG a match over their last five while Union Berlin have allowed 2.05. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Freiburg average 1.93 xG a match. They have had 20 days' rest to Union Berlin's 14.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Union Berlin can win

Union Berlin have created 1.42 xG a match over their last five while Freiburg have allowed 1.40. Away from home Union Berlin average 0.97 xG a match.

Key players

Freiburg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Igor Matanovic (0.39), Yuito Suzuki (0.29), Johan Manzambi (0.25). Union Berlin's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrej Ilic (0.44), Oliver Burke (0.21), Emmanuel Latte Lath (0.19).

Availability

2 of Freiburg's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Freiburg's last eleven are new to the club this window. 3 of Union Berlin's top three contributors did not start their last match. Union Berlin had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.10 expected goal involvements a match. 27% of Union Berlin's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Union Berlin: Felix Uduokhai (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Freiburg: 52% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.64 xG a match from set pieces. Union Berlin: 43% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.54 xG a match from set pieces. Freiburg's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Freiburg are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

LDLWWWWDWL last 10 scored 22 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 14.0 xG

Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DWWDLLLWDD last 10 scored 15 from 14.2 xG conceded 21 from 20.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	512325	1.76–1.17	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	502624	1.49–0.94	1-0 13%	44%	47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to win	51.9%	51.5%	42.1%	1.22×	1.94
Union Berlin to win	24.3%	24.5%	33.3%	0.73×	4.09
Draw	23.8%	24.5%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg & not both score	27.2%	25.2%	20.1%	1.25×	3.97
Freiburg & both teams score	24.7%	21.8%	22.1%	0.99×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	17.9%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.57
Union Berlin & both teams score	12.4%	13.3%	18.5%	0.72×	7.54
Union Berlin & not both score	11.9%	13.3%	15.0%	0.89×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.9%	8.3%	5.9%	1.40×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg & over 1.5	41.7%	40.2%	35.6%	1.13×	2.49
Freiburg & under 3.5	33.7%	30.8%	21.9%	1.40×	3.25
Freiburg & over 2.5	33.0%	30.8%	29.8%	1.03×	3.25
Freiburg & under 2.5	19.0%	18.0%	12.4%	1.45×	5.56
Freiburg & over 3.5	18.2%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.56
Union Berlin & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	27.6%	0.65×	5.56
Union Berlin & under 3.5	17.6%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.1%	18.0%	15.3%	1.18×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	15.3%	1.18×	5.56
Union Berlin & over 2.5	14.2%	12.8%	23.4%	0.55×	7.79
Freiburg & under 1.5	10.2%	12.8%	6.7%	1.93×	7.79
Union Berlin & under 2.5	10.1%	12.8%	10.1%	1.27×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	5.9%	1.34×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.63
Union Berlin & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	5.9%	1.34×	12.63
Union Berlin & over 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	14.2%	0.56×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (1UP)	66.4%	70.1%	60.2%	1.16×	1.43
Union Berlin (1UP)	42.5%	38.7%	51.9%	0.74×	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (2UP)	51.9%	54.9%	45.4%	1.21×	1.82
Union Berlin (2UP)	24.3%	23.8%	36.4%	0.66×	4.20

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	34.6%	34.2%	33.7%	1.01×	2.93
Freiburg to win 2nd half	34.5%	34.2%	37.5%	0.91×	2.93
Union Berlin to win 2nd half	30.9%	34.1%	28.9%	1.18×	2.93

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.0%	84.2%	79.5%	1.06×	1.19
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.9%	52.8%	56.4%	0.94×	1.90
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.1%	47.2%	43.6%	1.08×	2.12
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.0%	15.8%	20.5%	0.77×	6.31

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	75.2%	74.5%	1.01×	1.33
Freiburg over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.7%	58.3%	63.4%	0.92×	1.72
Freiburg under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.3%	41.7%	36.6%	1.14×	2.40
Freiburg over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	24.8%	25.5%	0.97×	4.03

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (+2.5)	87.5%	88.5%	88.0%	1.01×	1.13
Freiburg (+0.5)	75.7%	78.5%	66.7%	1.18×	1.27
Union Berlin (+1.5)	71.6%	73.6%	75.6%	0.97×	1.36
Freiburg (-0.5)	51.9%	52.4%	42.1%	1.25×	1.91
Union Berlin (+0.5)	48.1%	47.6%	57.9%	0.82×	2.10
Freiburg (-1.5)	28.4%	26.4%	24.4%	1.08×	3.79
Union Berlin (-0.5)	24.3%	21.5%	33.3%	0.65×	4.65
Freiburg (-2.5)	12.5%	11.5%	12.0%	0.96×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede	82.2%	81.5%	79.3%	1.03×	1.23
Union Berlin clean sheet	17.8%	18.5%	20.7%	0.89×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede in 1st half	58.0%	57.1%	51.6%	1.11×	1.75
Union Berlin clean sheet in 1st half	42.0%	42.9%	48.4%	0.89×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede in 2nd half	57.7%	57.6%	63.4%	0.91×	1.74
Union Berlin clean sheet in 2nd half	42.3%	42.4%	36.6%	1.16×	2.36

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 6.5 corners	94.2%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Union Berlin under 5.5 corners	88.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Union Berlin under 4.5 corners	78.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Union Berlin under 3.5 corners	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Union Berlin over 2.5 corners	56.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Union Berlin under 2.5 corners	43.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Union Berlin over 3.5 corners	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Union Berlin over 4.5 corners	21.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Union Berlin over 5.5 corners	11.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Union Berlin over 6.5 corners	5.8%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 3.5 goals	97.4%	97.5%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
Union Berlin under 2.5 goals	89.9%	87.8%	79.1%	1.11×	1.14
Union Berlin under 1.5 goals	69.7%	68.0%	57.3%	1.19×	1.47
Union Berlin over 0.5 goals	66.9%	68.0%	74.1%	0.92×	1.47
Union Berlin under 0.5 goals	33.1%	32.0%	25.9%	1.23×	3.13
Union Berlin over 1.5 goals	30.3%	32.0%	42.7%	0.75×	3.13
Union Berlin over 2.5 goals	10.1%	12.2%	20.9%	0.58×	8.21
Union Berlin over 3.5 goals	2.6%	2.5%	7.3%	0.35×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half	96.1%	96.1%	85.8%	1.12×	1.04
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half	73.4%	67.7%	54.6%	1.24×	1.48
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half	26.6%	32.3%	45.4%	0.71×	3.09
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half	3.9%	3.9%	14.2%	0.28×	25.51

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin scores more in 2nd half	44.7%	43.6%	36.4%	1.20×	2.30
Union Berlin scores equally in both	41.8%	43.5%	39.8%	1.09×	2.30
Union Berlin scores more in 1st half	13.5%	11.7%	24.0%	0.49×	8.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (away no bet)	68.6%	66.4%	63.0%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	31.4%	33.6%	37.0%	0.91×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin even goals	55.5%	56.9%	53.6%	1.06×	1.76
Union Berlin odd goals	44.5%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.8%	82.9%	75.2%	1.10×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.2%	17.1%	24.8%	0.69×	5.84

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.0%	68.3%	72.1%	0.95×	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.0%	31.7%	27.9%	1.14×	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.4%	55.2%	66.2%	0.83×	1.81
Freiburg to score 2+ in a row	43.2%	38.7%	42.3%	0.92×	2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.2%	19.6%	29.2%	0.67×	5.10
Union Berlin to score 2+ in a row	21.7%	19.6%	34.3%	0.57×	5.10
Freiburg to score 3+ in a row	17.2%	16.2%	17.8%	0.91×	6.17
Union Berlin to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.5%	12.3%	0.45×	18.25

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg corners (+3.5)	96.6%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Freiburg corners (+2.5)	93.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Freiburg corners (+1.5)	88.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Freiburg corners (-1.5)	61.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Union Berlin corners (+3.5)	61.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Freiburg corners (-2.5)	50.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Union Berlin corners (+2.5)	49.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Freiburg corners (-3.5)	39.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Union Berlin corners (+1.5)	38.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Union Berlin corners (-1.5)	11.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Union Berlin corners (-2.5)	6.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Union Berlin corners (-3.5)	3.4%	4.3%	—	—	23.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	21.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	61.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	60.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 8.5 corners	50.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 9.5 corners	39.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	38.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	29.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	21.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.2%	11.5%	9.5%	1.21×	8.72
1-0	10.2%	11.5%	6.7%	1.72×	8.72
2-0	8.8%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
0-1	6.5%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
0-0	5.9%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
1-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
3-0	5.1%	7.4%	2.7%	2.78×	13.51
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.32
4-0	2.2%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
4-1	2.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	3.86×	58.32
Any other score	3.7%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.30
0-2	3.6%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
1-3	2.3%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.32
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (2nd half DNB)	52.8%	53.5%	56.5%	0.95×	1.87
Union Berlin (2nd half DNB)	47.2%	46.5%	43.5%	1.07×	2.15

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg leading at HT (DNB)	79.0%	75.2%	55.4%	1.36×	1.33
Union Berlin leading at HT (DNB)	21.0%	24.8%	44.6%	0.56×	4.03

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or Union Berlin (12)	76.2%	75.5%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Freiburg or draw (1X)	75.7%	75.5%	66.7%	1.13×	1.32
Union Berlin or draw (X2)	48.1%	48.5%	57.9%	0.84×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or draw at HT	87.3%	88.3%	70.8%	1.25×	1.13
Freiburg or Union Berlin at HT	60.3%	60.9%	65.4%	0.93×	1.64
Union Berlin or draw at HT	52.4%	47.7%	63.7%	0.75×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or draw (1UP)	75.7%	83.6%	73.9%	1.13×	1.20
Union Berlin or draw (1UP)	48.1%	53.4%	64.5%	0.83×	1.87

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg or draw in 2nd half	69.1%	65.9%	71.1%	0.93×	1.52
Union Berlin or draw in 2nd half	65.5%	65.8%	62.5%	1.05×	1.52
Freiburg or Union Berlin in 2nd half	65.4%	65.8%	66.3%	0.99×	1.52

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.5%	61.3%	54.5%	1.13×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.5%	38.7%	45.5%	0.85×	2.58

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (DNB)	68.1%	67.4%	55.8%	1.21×	1.48
Union Berlin (DNB)	31.9%	32.6%	44.2%	0.74×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to score first	57.4%	62.2%	51.3%	1.21×	1.61
Union Berlin to score first	36.7%	32.7%	42.9%	0.76×	3.06
No goal scored	5.9%	7.4%	5.9%	1.24×	13.54

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.0%	51.3%	59.3%	0.87×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.0%	48.7%	40.7%	1.20×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.7%	41.6%	49.9%	0.83×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.0%	34.6%	28.1%	1.23×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	11.2%	12.4%	9.5%	1.30×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.1%	12.4%	12.7%	0.97×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.4%	82.6%	79.3%	1.04×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.6%	17.4%	20.7%	0.84×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.3%	67.2%	65.0%	1.03×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.7%	32.8%	35.0%	0.94×	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.8%	60.0%	51.3%	1.17×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	26.8%	27.2%	28.2%	0.96×	3.68
Both score 1st half only	10.5%	10.7%	13.8%	0.78×	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.0%	7.0%	0.71×	20.10

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.6%	83.2%	79.4%	1.05×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.4%	16.8%	20.6%	0.81×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.9%	56.9%	67.1%	0.85×	1.76
A half without a goal	44.1%	43.1%	32.9%	1.31×	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.9%	47.2%	38.1%	1.24×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.9%	26.6%	39.7%	0.67×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.6%	22.9%	18.2%	1.26×	4.36
7+ goals	2.6%	1.8%	4.3%	0.43×	54.27

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	31.6%	1.14×	2.78
Union Berlin to score exactly 0	33.1%	33.8%	25.9%	1.31×	2.96
Union Berlin to score exactly 2	20.2%	22.3%	21.9%	1.02×	4.49
Union Berlin to score 3+	10.1%	12.9%	20.9%	0.62×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to score exactly 1	30.7%	32.6%	28.9%	1.13×	3.07
Freiburg to score exactly 2	26.5%	26.5%	23.3%	1.14×	3.77
Freiburg to score 3+	25.0%	23.3%	27.4%	0.85×	4.29
Freiburg to score exactly 0	17.8%	18.8%	20.7%	0.90×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg leading at HT	47.6%	52.3%	36.4%	1.44×	1.91
Draw at HT	39.7%	39.1%	34.6%	1.13×	2.56
Union Berlin leading at HT	12.7%	11.7%	29.2%	0.40×	8.52

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg -1: 2	48.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Freiburg -1: 1	28.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Freiburg -1: X	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (0:1)	48.1%	46.2%	57.9%	0.80×	2.17
Freiburg (0:1)	28.4%	27.0%	24.4%	1.11×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	23.5%	24.2%	17.8%	1.36×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (0:2)	71.6%	75.6%	75.6%	1.00×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.9%	15.3%	12.6%	1.21×	6.56
Freiburg (0:2)	12.5%	11.0%	12.0%	0.92×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (0:3)	87.5%	90.6%	88.0%	1.03×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.0%	5.8%	4.9%	1.19×	17.22
Freiburg (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	7.3%	0.33×	42.03

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (0:4)	95.4%	98.1%	92.7%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.2%	1.2%	5.0%	0.24×	81.82
Freiburg (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	82.02

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (1:0)	75.7%	78.6%	66.7%	1.18×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	15.0%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.85
Union Berlin (1:0)	9.3%	6.9%	16.7%	0.41×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg (2:0)	90.7%	94.0%	83.3%	1.13×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.5%	6.4%	9.8%	0.65×	15.68
Union Berlin (2:0)	2.8%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.72

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.6%	48.7%	47.6%	1.02×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.2%	25.8%	1.02×	3.82
Halves equal	24.3%	24.4%	26.7%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede	66.9%	66.7%	74.1%	0.90×	1.50
Freiburg clean sheet	33.1%	33.3%	25.9%	1.28×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg clean sheet in 1st half	73.4%	66.9%	54.6%	1.23×	1.49
Freiburg to concede in 1st half	26.6%	33.1%	45.4%	0.73×	3.02

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to concede in 2nd half	54.9%	52.9%	56.4%	0.94×	1.89
Freiburg clean sheet in 2nd half	45.1%	47.1%	43.6%	1.08×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg over 2.5 corners	87.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Freiburg over 3.5 corners	76.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Freiburg under 6.5 corners	64.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Freiburg over 4.5 corners	62.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Freiburg under 5.5 corners	51.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Freiburg over 5.5 corners	48.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Freiburg under 4.5 corners	37.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Freiburg over 6.5 corners	36.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Freiburg under 3.5 corners	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Freiburg under 2.5 corners	12.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 3.5 goals	90.3%	92.2%	88.3%	1.04×	1.08
Freiburg over 0.5 goals	82.2%	82.2%	79.3%	1.04×	1.22
Freiburg under 2.5 goals	75.0%	77.7%	72.6%	1.07×	1.29
Freiburg over 1.5 goals	51.5%	53.2%	50.5%	1.05×	1.88
Freiburg under 1.5 goals	48.5%	46.8%	49.5%	0.95×	2.14
Freiburg over 2.5 goals	25.0%	22.3%	27.4%	0.81×	4.49
Freiburg under 0.5 goals	17.8%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.63
Freiburg over 3.5 goals	9.7%	7.8%	11.7%	0.67×	12.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg under 1.5 in 1st half	78.5%	77.1%	80.7%	0.96×	1.30
Freiburg over 0.5 in 1st half	58.0%	56.9%	51.6%	1.10×	1.76
Freiburg under 0.5 in 1st half	42.0%	43.1%	48.4%	0.89×	2.32
Freiburg over 1.5 in 1st half	21.5%	22.9%	19.3%	1.19×	4.38

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg scores equally in both	33.7%	33.2%	36.8%	0.90×	3.01
Freiburg scores more in 1st half	33.3%	33.2%	24.9%	1.33×	3.01
Freiburg scores more in 2nd half	33.0%	33.2%	38.4%	0.86×	3.01

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (home no bet)	50.5%	51.4%	57.4%	0.89×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.5%	48.6%	42.6%	1.14×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg even goals	51.6%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Freiburg odd goals	48.4%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.9%	33.1%	23.6%	1.40×	3.02
HT 1-0	26.7%	28.4%	19.0%	1.50×	3.52
HT 2-0	11.6%	11.0%	9.3%	1.17×	9.11
HT 0-1	9.5%	6.9%	16.5%	0.42×	14.43
HT 1-1	8.3%	6.9%	9.8%	0.71×	14.45
Any other HT score	6.1%	6.9%	6.8%	1.01×	14.48
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.4%	4.2%	0.57×	41.97
HT 0-2	1.5%	2.4%	7.1%	0.33×	42.11
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.4%	3.6%	0.67×	42.12
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	1.3%	1.78×	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg at HT / Freiburg at FT	36.9%	40.9%	27.9%	1.47×	2.45
Draw at HT / Freiburg at FT	13.7%	12.7%	11.3%	1.12×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.7%	12.7%	13.8%	0.92×	7.90
Draw at HT / Union Berlin at FT	12.3%	12.6%	9.8%	1.29×	7.91
Union Berlin at HT / Union Berlin at FT	8.7%	6.1%	20.3%	0.30×	16.40
Freiburg at HT / Draw at FT	7.4%	6.1%	5.2%	1.17×	16.43
Freiburg at HT / Union Berlin at FT	3.3%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.85
Union Berlin at HT / Draw at FT	2.6%	3.5%	5.9%	0.58×	28.87
Union Berlin at HT / Freiburg at FT	1.3%	3.5%	3.3%	1.06×	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to score last	57.4%	56.4%	50.1%	1.12×	1.77
Union Berlin to score last	36.7%	38.7%	44.1%	0.88×	2.58
No goal scored	5.9%	7.4%	5.9%	1.24×	13.54

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.1%	92.7%	94.1%	0.99×	1.08
Freiburg to lead by 1 at any time	66.4%	69.4%	60.2%	1.15×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.3%	44.4%	55.5%	0.80×	2.25
Union Berlin to lead by 1 at any time	42.5%	39.2%	51.9%	0.76×	2.55
Freiburg to lead by 2 at any time	35.1%	34.6%	32.8%	1.06×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.0%	14.9%	25.4%	0.59×	6.70
Freiburg to lead by 3 at any time	15.1%	14.8%	15.7%	0.94×	6.74
Union Berlin to lead by 2 at any time	14.4%	10.6%	23.4%	0.45×	9.48
Union Berlin to lead by 3 at any time	3.9%	1.6%	9.8%	0.17×	61.15

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg most corners	72.8%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Union Berlin most corners	18.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	9.2%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.4%	83.0%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.4%	78.7%	71.9%	1.09×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.9%	72.4%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.6%	72.3%	70.7%	1.02×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.6%	63.3%	50.4%	1.26×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	59.6%	1.06×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.2%	53.2%	58.4%	0.91×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.0%	48.5%	51.4%	0.94×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.9%	48.5%	38.1%	1.27×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.3%	43.6%	31.7%	1.37×	2.29
3-4 goals	38.1%	39.2%	40.3%	0.97×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.9%	30.2%	39.7%	0.76×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.7%	24.5%	32.7%	0.75×	4.09
5-6 goals	13.2%	14.8%	18.2%	0.81×	6.75
7+ goals	2.6%	2.6%	4.3%	0.59×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg never behind	51.6%	62.3%	48.1%	1.30×	1.61
Union Berlin never behind	27.7%	30.0%	39.8%	0.75×	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	45.8%	1.11×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	54.2%	0.91×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.8%	51.8%	52.8%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.2%	48.2%	47.2%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	51.9%	53.1%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.1%	46.9%	1.03×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	88.7%	1.04×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.3%	82.3%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	77.3%	81.8%	0.95×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.5%	66.3%	56.1%	1.18×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.8%	52.5%	62.5%	0.84×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.2%	47.5%	37.5%	1.27×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.5%	33.7%	43.9%	0.77×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	22.7%	18.2%	1.25×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	15.7%	17.7%	22.4%	0.79×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	11.3%	0.69×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	5.9%	1.30×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.3%	97.2%	95.4%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.6%	92.4%	87.3%	1.06×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.3%	81.1%	71.5%	1.13×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.4%	72.4%	77.4%	0.93×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.5%	55.8%	46.1%	1.21×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.6%	44.2%	53.9%	0.82×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.6%	27.6%	22.6%	1.22×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.7%	18.9%	28.5%	0.66×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.5%	7.6%	12.7%	0.60×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.7%	2.8%	4.6%	0.61×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.0%	84.6%	1.05×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.1%	68.6%	76.4%	0.90×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.1%	68.5%	58.8%	1.17×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.9%	31.5%	41.2%	0.76×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.4%	23.6%	1.33×	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.5%	11.0%	15.4%	0.71×	9.13

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.9%	82.9%	84.7%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.9%	79.7%	73.0%	1.09×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.7%	53.2%	44.4%	1.20×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.3%	46.8%	55.6%	0.84×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.1%	20.3%	27.0%	0.75×	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.1%	17.1%	15.3%	1.12×	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to score in both halves	85.4%	85.4%	72.3%	1.18×	1.17
Freiburg not to score in both halves	66.6%	70.0%	64.2%	1.09×	1.43
Freiburg to score in both halves	33.4%	30.0%	35.8%	0.84×	3.34
Union Berlin to score in both halves	14.6%	14.6%	27.7%	0.53×	6.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.0%	53.9%	59.3%	0.91×	1.86
Only Freiburg scores	27.2%	26.0%	20.1%	1.29×	3.84
Only Union Berlin scores	11.9%	11.0%	15.0%	0.74×	9.07
Neither team scores	5.9%	7.1%	5.9%	1.20×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.6%	22.6%	19.4%	1.16×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	18.8%	1.20×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.7%	17.5%	12.4%	1.40×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.8%	17.5%	21.6%	0.81×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.9%	7.6%	11.3%	0.68×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.8%	7.6%	11.3%	0.68×	13.15
Exactly 0 goals	5.9%	7.6%	5.9%	1.28×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	35.3%	1.06×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.9%	35.6%	23.6%	1.51×	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	21.3%	21.5%	26.0%	0.83×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	11.5%	10.9%	15.4%	0.70×	9.22

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.3%	44.9%	55.6%	0.81×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.6%	33.7%	29.2%	1.15×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	19.1%	16.7%	15.3%	1.10×	5.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to win both halves	96.1%	97.2%	91.0%	1.07×	1.03
Freiburg not to win both halves	83.6%	83.9%	84.1%	1.00×	1.19
Freiburg to win both halves	16.4%	16.1%	15.9%	1.02×	6.20
Union Berlin to win both halves	3.9%	2.8%	9.1%	0.31×	35.40

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg to win either half	65.7%	67.6%	58.0%	1.17×	1.48
Union Berlin to win neither half	60.4%	64.9%	50.9%	1.27×	1.54
Union Berlin to win either half	39.7%	35.2%	49.1%	0.72×	2.85
Freiburg to win neither half	34.3%	32.4%	42.0%	0.77×	3.09

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to win to nil	88.1%	88.1%	85.0%	1.04×	1.14
Freiburg not to win to nil	72.8%	75.3%	79.9%	0.94×	1.33
Freiburg to win to nil	27.2%	24.7%	20.1%	1.22×	4.06
Union Berlin to win to nil	11.9%	11.9%	15.0%	0.79×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Freiburg by 1	23.5%	24.1%	17.8%	1.36×	4.15
Draw	23.8%	24.1%	24.7%	0.97×	4.15
Freiburg by 2	15.9%	17.0%	12.6%	1.35×	5.87
Union Berlin by 1	15.0%	17.0%	16.7%	1.02×	5.87
Freiburg by 3+	12.5%	11.8%	12.0%	0.98×	8.51
Union Berlin by 2	6.5%	7.2%	9.8%	0.74×	13.91
Union Berlin by 3+	2.8%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.85