Frosinone v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Frosinone

14:00 UTC

Lazio

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,419h before kick-off

Frosinone win

38.3%

model 35.6%

Draw

23.2%

model 24.7%

Lazio win

38.5%

model 39.8%

382339

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.5%
1-2 8.7%
0-1 8.2%
2-1 8.1%
1-0 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.7%	Under 2.5	44.3%
BTTS yes	58.8%	BTTS no	41.2%
Frosinone 1+	75.6%	Frosinone 2+	41.2%
Lazio 1+	77.8%	Lazio 2+	44.4%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.50. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Lazio to concede in 1st half

Away clean sheet 1HT · usually 42%

59.2% fair odds 1.69

strong signal · 668 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 91%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Lazio average 1.23 xG a match.

Risk factors

Lazio have scored 2.40 a match from 1.44 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lazio have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.3% for Frosinone and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for Frosinone and 1.50 for Lazio.

Why Frosinone

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Lazio were missing 0.75 expected goal involvements a match against 0.10.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.41 to 1.50. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Lazio can win

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. Away from home Lazio average 1.23 xG a match.

Key players

Frosinone's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Raimondo (0.52), Giorgi Kvernadze (0.39), Giacomo Calo (0.26). Lazio's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mattia Zaccagni (0.39), Davide Frattesi (0.28), Daniel Maldini (0.23).

Availability

27% of Lazio's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Frosinone: 44% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 18.4 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Lazio: 50% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Lazio are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Frosinone are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDWLW last 7 scored 13 from 11.9 xG conceded 9 from 16.4 xG

Lazio are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWDWWW last 10 scored 16 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 14.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362540	1.41–1.50	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332344	1.50–1.77	1-1 10%	63%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win	41.5%	42.9%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Frosinone to win	32.9%	30.4%	40.0%	0.76×	3.29
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & not both score	21.5%	21.8%	20.6%	1.06×	4.59
Lazio & both teams score	20.0%	21.8%	13.2%	1.65×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Frosinone & not both score	16.7%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.57
Frosinone & both teams score	16.2%	18.0%	17.5%	1.02×	5.57
Draw & not both score	6.5%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio & over 1.5	32.0%	30.8%	24.6%	1.25×	3.25
Lazio & under 3.5	28.6%	26.1%	26.3%	0.99×	3.84
Lazio & over 2.5	25.1%	26.1%	18.1%	1.44×	3.84
Frosinone & over 1.5	24.7%	21.6%	29.9%	0.72×	4.63
Frosinone & under 3.5	23.5%	21.6%	29.6%	0.73×	4.63
Frosinone & over 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	23.3%	0.77×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Lazio & under 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	15.6%	1.15×	5.56
Frosinone & under 2.5	13.6%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Lazio & over 3.5	12.9%	12.8%	7.5%	1.72×	7.79
Frosinone & over 3.5	9.5%	7.9%	10.6%	0.75×	12.63
Lazio & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Frosinone & under 1.5	8.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.9%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (1UP)	57.8%	58.1%	50.5%	1.15×	1.72
Frosinone (1UP)	50.4%	52.5%	55.3%	0.95×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2UP)	41.5%	47.1%	36.2%	1.30×	2.13
Frosinone (2UP)	32.9%	30.5%	41.8%	0.73×	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.3%	41.8%	35.0%	1.20×	2.39
Lazio to win 2nd half	35.5%	36.1%	30.2%	1.20×	2.77
Frosinone to win 2nd half	23.2%	24.3%	35.0%	0.69×	4.12

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.2%	84.4%	85.1%	0.99×	1.18
Lazio over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.6%	52.5%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
Lazio under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.4%	47.5%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11
Lazio over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.8%	15.6%	14.9%	1.04×	6.43

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.6%	93.6%	81.5%	1.15×	1.07
Frosinone under 0.5 in 2nd half	59.9%	58.1%	46.3%	1.26×	1.72
Frosinone over 0.5 in 2nd half	40.1%	41.9%	53.7%	0.78×	2.39
Frosinone over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.4%	6.4%	18.5%	0.35×	15.61

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (+2.5)	95.2%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Lazio (+1.5)	85.8%	88.5%	82.5%	1.07×	1.13
Lazio (+0.5)	67.1%	68.7%	60.0%	1.14×	1.46
Frosinone (+0.5)	58.5%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Lazio (-0.5)	41.5%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Frosinone (-0.5)	32.9%	31.3%	40.0%	0.78×	3.19
Frosinone (-1.5)	14.2%	11.6%	17.5%	0.66×	8.66
Frosinone (-2.5)	4.8%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	26.99

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede	72.0%	76.7%	71.6%	1.07×	1.30
Lazio clean sheet	28.0%	23.3%	28.4%	0.82×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede in 1st half	53.2%	50.6%	42.1%	1.20×	1.98
Lazio clean sheet in 1st half	46.8%	49.4%	57.9%	0.85×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio clean sheet in 2nd half	59.9%	57.5%	46.3%	1.24×	1.74
Lazio to concede in 2nd half	40.1%	42.5%	53.7%	0.79×	2.36

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 6.5 corners	81.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Lazio over 2.5 corners	73.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Lazio under 5.5 corners	71.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Lazio under 4.5 corners	58.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Lazio over 3.5 corners	57.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Lazio under 3.5 corners	43.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Lazio over 4.5 corners	41.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Lazio over 5.5 corners	28.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Lazio under 2.5 corners	26.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Lazio over 6.5 corners	18.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 3.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Lazio under 2.5 goals	81.9%	81.5%	88.1%	0.92×	1.23
Lazio over 0.5 goals	76.8%	76.3%	69.6%	1.10×	1.31
Lazio under 1.5 goals	57.2%	59.4%	65.0%	0.91×	1.68
Lazio over 1.5 goals	42.8%	40.6%	35.0%	1.16×	2.46
Lazio under 0.5 goals	23.2%	23.7%	30.4%	0.78×	4.21
Lazio over 2.5 goals	18.1%	18.5%	11.9%	1.56×	5.39
Lazio over 3.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	2.9%	2.65×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 1st half	82.6%	83.0%	89.9%	0.92×	1.21
Lazio over 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	55.5%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Lazio under 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	44.5%	58.8%	0.76×	2.25
Lazio over 1.5 in 1st half	17.4%	17.0%	10.1%	1.69×	5.87

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio scores equally in both	37.3%	37.3%	43.4%	0.86×	2.68
Lazio scores more in 1st half	32.7%	33.7%	23.9%	1.41×	2.97
Lazio scores more in 2nd half	29.9%	26.4%	32.8%	0.80×	3.79

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (away no bet)	56.4%	57.4%	60.2%	0.95×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.6%	42.6%	39.8%	1.07×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio even goals	52.7%	52.6%	55.5%	0.95×	1.90
Lazio odd goals	47.3%	47.4%	44.5%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.6%	82.8%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.4%	17.2%	12.7%	1.35×	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.7%	57.9%	60.2%	0.96×	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.3%	42.1%	39.8%	1.06×	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.6%	55.1%	53.4%	1.03×	1.82
Lazio to score 2+ in a row	34.3%	29.3%	27.8%	1.05×	3.42
Frosinone to score 2+ in a row	27.7%	25.2%	31.7%	0.79×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.2%	16.3%	17.9%	0.91×	6.14
Lazio to score 3+ in a row	11.5%	12.0%	7.9%	1.52×	8.32
Frosinone to score 3+ in a row	8.0%	5.6%	10.1%	0.55×	17.91

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone corners (+3.5)	89.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Frosinone corners (+2.5)	84.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Frosinone corners (+1.5)	77.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lazio corners (+3.5)	70.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lazio corners (+2.5)	61.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lazio corners (+1.5)	51.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Frosinone corners (-1.5)	48.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Frosinone corners (-2.5)	38.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Frosinone corners (-3.5)	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lazio corners (-1.5)	22.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lazio corners (-2.5)	15.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Lazio corners (-3.5)	10.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	73.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	71.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	52.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	42.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	26.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
0-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
1-2	8.8%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.50
0-0	6.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	6.9%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
1-0	8.3%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.50
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
2-0	5.3%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-3	3.4%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.31
1-3	4.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
3-0	2.2%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.32
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
Any other score	2.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (2nd half DNB)	60.4%	62.3%	46.3%	1.35×	1.60
Frosinone (2nd half DNB)	39.6%	37.7%	53.7%	0.70×	2.65

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone leading at HT (DNB)	50.3%	54.6%	51.1%	1.07×	1.83
Lazio leading at HT (DNB)	49.7%	45.4%	48.9%	0.93×	2.20

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone or Lazio (12)	74.5%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Lazio or draw (X2)	67.1%	69.6%	60.0%	1.16×	1.44
Frosinone or draw (1X)	58.5%	57.1%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone or draw at HT	68.5%	66.7%	72.8%	0.92×	1.50
Lazio or draw at HT	68.1%	66.7%	71.6%	0.93×	1.50
Frosinone or Lazio at HT	63.4%	61.6%	55.4%	1.11×	1.62

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw (1UP)	67.1%	76.2%	65.5%	1.16×	1.31
Frosinone or draw (1UP)	58.5%	63.1%	71.6%	0.88×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio or draw in 2nd half	76.8%	75.7%	65.0%	1.16×	1.32
Frosinone or draw in 2nd half	64.5%	63.9%	69.8%	0.92×	1.56
Frosinone or Lazio in 2nd half	58.7%	58.2%	65.0%	0.89×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.7%	61.4%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.3%	38.6%	36.5%	1.06×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (DNB)	55.8%	58.0%	45.7%	1.27×	1.72
Frosinone (DNB)	44.2%	42.0%	54.3%	0.77×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score first	49.9%	46.1%	43.6%	1.06×	2.17
Frosinone to score first	43.5%	41.7%	48.6%	0.86×	2.40
No goal scored	6.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.2%	55.0%	49.2%	1.12×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.8%	45.0%	50.8%	0.89×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.1%	41.6%	37.4%	1.11×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	36.5%	38.4%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.4%	82.6%	86.5%	0.95×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.6%	17.4%	13.5%	1.29×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.7%	74.7%	74.9%	1.00×	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.3%	25.3%	25.1%	1.01×	3.95

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.3%	60.0%	62.7%	0.96×	1.67
Both score 1st half only	22.4%	21.1%	12.3%	1.72×	4.75
Both score 2nd half only	14.6%	10.7%	20.3%	0.53×	9.33
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.8%	4.9%	1.37×	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	71.8%	79.5%	82.9%	0.96×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	28.2%	20.5%	17.1%	1.20×	4.89

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.9%	52.8%	52.8%	1.00×	1.89
A half without a goal	45.1%	47.2%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
4-6 goals	27.1%	26.6%	23.8%	1.12×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.3%	22.9%	27.0%	0.85×	4.36
7+ goals	2.2%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.29

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score exactly 1	33.9%	33.8%	34.7%	0.97×	2.96
Lazio to score exactly 2	24.7%	22.3%	23.2%	0.96×	4.48
Lazio to score exactly 0	23.2%	22.3%	30.4%	0.73×	4.48
Lazio to score 3+	18.1%	19.6%	11.9%	1.65×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.6%	32.1%	1.11×	2.81
Frosinone to score exactly 0	28.0%	26.6%	28.4%	0.94×	3.77
Frosinone to score exactly 2	22.7%	23.3%	24.8%	0.94×	4.29
Frosinone to score 3+	13.6%	14.3%	15.0%	0.95×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	36.6%	38.4%	44.6%	0.86×	2.61
Frosinone leading at HT	31.9%	33.3%	28.4%	1.17×	3.00
Lazio leading at HT	31.5%	33.3%	27.2%	1.23×	3.00

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio -1: 1	58.5%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Lazio -1: X	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Lazio -1: 2	20.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:1)	67.1%	65.2%	60.0%	1.09×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.8%	17.8%	22.6%	0.79×	5.61
Frosinone (0:1)	14.2%	13.7%	17.5%	0.78×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:2)	85.8%	87.1%	82.5%	1.06×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.4%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.02
Frosinone (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	7.7%	0.49×	26.58

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:3)	95.2%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.5%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.04
Frosinone (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	81.99
Frosinone (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (1:0)	58.5%	58.4%	66.3%	0.88×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	21.5%	21.7%	19.4%	1.12×	4.61
Lazio (1:0)	20.0%	21.7%	14.4%	1.50×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (2:0)	80.0%	80.6%	85.6%	0.94×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.4%	10.3%	8.7%	1.19×	9.72
Lazio (2:0)	7.7%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	44.1%	45.2%	27.0%	1.67×	2.21
2nd half highest scoring	30.6%	29.3%	46.2%	0.63×	3.42
Halves equal	25.3%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede	76.8%	76.1%	69.6%	1.09×	1.32
Frosinone clean sheet	23.2%	23.9%	30.4%	0.79×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede in 1st half	52.9%	55.5%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Frosinone clean sheet in 1st half	47.1%	44.5%	58.8%	0.76×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede in 2nd half	50.6%	52.6%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
Frosinone clean sheet in 2nd half	49.4%	47.4%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone over 2.5 corners	85.8%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Frosinone over 3.5 corners	74.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Frosinone under 6.5 corners	63.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Frosinone over 4.5 corners	61.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Frosinone under 5.5 corners	51.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Frosinone over 5.5 corners	48.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Frosinone under 4.5 corners	38.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Frosinone over 6.5 corners	36.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Frosinone under 3.5 corners	25.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Frosinone under 2.5 corners	14.2%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 3.5 goals	96.0%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Frosinone under 2.5 goals	86.4%	87.3%	85.0%	1.03×	1.15
Frosinone over 0.5 goals	72.0%	74.2%	71.6%	1.04×	1.35
Frosinone under 1.5 goals	63.7%	63.6%	60.3%	1.05×	1.57
Frosinone over 1.5 goals	36.3%	36.4%	39.7%	0.92×	2.75
Frosinone under 0.5 goals	28.0%	25.8%	28.4%	0.91×	3.88
Frosinone over 2.5 goals	13.6%	12.8%	15.0%	0.85×	7.84
Frosinone over 3.5 goals	4.0%	3.6%	4.7%	0.78×	27.48

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 1.5 in 1st half	82.3%	83.7%	89.3%	0.94×	1.20
Frosinone over 0.5 in 1st half	53.2%	50.4%	42.1%	1.20×	1.99
Frosinone under 0.5 in 1st half	46.8%	49.6%	57.9%	0.86×	2.02
Frosinone over 1.5 in 1st half	17.7%	16.3%	10.7%	1.52×	6.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone scores equally in both	40.0%	42.0%	41.7%	1.01×	2.38
Frosinone scores more in 1st half	37.7%	37.9%	22.2%	1.70×	2.64
Frosinone scores more in 2nd half	22.3%	21.2%	36.2%	0.59×	4.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (home no bet)	61.9%	60.0%	56.0%	1.07×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	38.1%	40.0%	44.0%	0.91×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone even goals	53.9%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Frosinone odd goals	46.1%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	22.0%	24.4%	33.8%	0.72×	4.10
HT 1-0	16.7%	18.6%	18.4%	1.01×	5.39
HT 0-1	16.6%	18.6%	18.1%	1.02×	5.39
HT 1-1	12.6%	11.0%	10.3%	1.07×	9.07
Any other HT score	8.1%	6.9%	3.4%	2.05×	14.47
HT 2-0	6.4%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.50
HT 0-2	6.2%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.50
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	41.97
HT 2-1	4.8%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	41.97
HT 2-2	1.8%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio at HT / Lazio at FT	26.0%	27.1%	19.1%	1.42×	3.68
Frosinone at HT / Frosinone at FT	23.3%	21.8%	22.0%	0.99×	4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.1%	16.7%	16.1%	1.04×	5.99
Draw at HT / Lazio at FT	13.0%	12.6%	12.9%	0.98×	7.91
Draw at HT / Frosinone at FT	8.5%	6.0%	15.9%	0.38×	16.59
Frosinone at HT / Draw at FT	6.2%	6.0%	4.7%	1.28×	16.65
Lazio at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.61
Frosinone at HT / Lazio at FT	2.5%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.67
Lazio at HT / Frosinone at FT	1.2%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score last	49.9%	46.6%	44.0%	1.06×	2.15
Frosinone to score last	43.5%	40.1%	48.2%	0.83×	2.50
No goal scored	6.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.5%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Lazio to lead by 1 at any time	57.8%	54.9%	50.5%	1.09×	1.82
Frosinone to lead by 1 at any time	50.4%	50.8%	55.3%	0.92×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.1%	44.5%	43.6%	1.02×	2.25
Lazio to lead by 2 at any time	26.3%	25.5%	20.2%	1.26×	3.92
Frosinone to lead by 2 at any time	20.0%	19.6%	23.9%	0.82×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.0%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.70
Lazio to lead by 3 at any time	9.6%	6.8%	6.5%	1.04×	14.81
Frosinone to lead by 3 at any time	6.4%	6.7%	8.8%	0.76×	14.95

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone most corners	59.1%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Lazio most corners	31.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	9.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.3%	78.7%	80.8%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.5%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.8%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.2%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.2%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.5%	48.5%	45.2%	1.07×	2.06
1-2 goals	42.1%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.2%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.1%	30.2%	23.8%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.3%	24.5%	21.8%	1.13×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.0%	14.8%	10.6%	1.40×	6.75
7+ goals	2.2%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio never behind	43.1%	48.5%	44.7%	1.09×	2.06
Frosinone never behind	35.7%	43.9%	49.5%	0.89×	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.6%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.6%	48.4%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.4%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.6%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.8%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	73.0%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	70.7%	72.5%	75.4%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.4%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	48.6%	47.5%	51.9%	0.91×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.3%	27.5%	24.6%	1.12×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	27.0%	0.84×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	14.2%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	7.9%	0.97×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.7%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.5%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.3%	81.1%	86.8%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.9%	67.5%	64.0%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.4%	61.9%	67.8%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.6%	38.1%	32.2%	1.18×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.1%	32.5%	36.0%	0.90×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.7%	18.9%	13.2%	1.44×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.5%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.3%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.6%	85.7%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.0%	78.2%	66.2%	1.18×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	55.4%	63.5%	70.1%	0.91×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	44.6%	36.5%	29.9%	1.22×	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.0%	21.8%	33.8%	0.65×	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.4%	14.3%	8.8%	1.63×	7.00

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.6%	85.5%	82.5%	1.04×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.4%	77.3%	78.6%	0.98×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.6%	68.6%	57.0%	1.20×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.4%	31.4%	43.0%	0.73×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.6%	22.7%	21.4%	1.06×	4.40
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.4%	14.5%	17.5%	0.83×	6.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone not to score in both halves	78.7%	78.5%	75.8%	1.03×	1.27
Lazio not to score in both halves	73.2%	73.9%	78.4%	0.94×	1.35
Lazio to score in both halves	26.8%	26.1%	21.6%	1.20×	3.84
Frosinone to score in both halves	21.3%	21.5%	24.2%	0.89×	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.2%	58.6%	49.2%	1.19×	1.71
Only Lazio scores	21.5%	22.2%	20.6%	1.08×	4.50
Only Frosinone scores	16.7%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.24
Neither team scores	6.5%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.8%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.1%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.2%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.5%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.9%	7.6%	3.0%	2.53×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.3%	35.9%	36.4%	0.98×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.2%	28.2%	21.3%	1.32×	3.55
No goals in 1st half	22.0%	21.5%	33.8%	0.64×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	19.4%	15.7%	8.8%	1.79×	6.37

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.0%	39.3%	35.7%	1.10×	2.54
2+ goals in 2nd half	34.4%	33.9%	43.0%	0.79×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	29.6%	29.4%	21.4%	1.37×	3.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone not to win both halves	92.6%	94.1%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Lazio not to win both halves	88.8%	87.9%	91.1%	0.97×	1.14
Lazio to win both halves	11.2%	12.1%	8.9%	1.36×	8.28
Frosinone to win both halves	7.4%	5.9%	10.1%	0.58×	16.98

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win either half	55.8%	59.0%	48.4%	1.22×	1.70
Frosinone to win neither half	52.3%	54.3%	46.8%	1.16×	1.84
Frosinone to win either half	47.7%	45.7%	53.2%	0.86×	2.19
Lazio to win neither half	44.2%	41.0%	51.6%	0.80×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone not to win to nil	83.3%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Lazio not to win to nil	78.5%	78.1%	79.4%	0.98×	1.28
Lazio to win to nil	21.5%	21.9%	20.6%	1.06×	4.57
Frosinone to win to nil	16.7%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.5%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59
Lazio by 1	21.5%	24.1%	19.4%	1.25×	4.15
Frosinone by 1	18.8%	17.1%	22.6%	0.75×	5.86
Lazio by 2	12.4%	11.8%	8.7%	1.36×	8.51
Frosinone by 2	9.4%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.90
Lazio by 3+	7.7%	7.2%	5.9%	1.22×	13.91
Frosinone by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.75