Frosinone v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.31
Goals − xG
+1.21 – -0.44
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyFrosinone win
49.5%
model 46.6%
Draw
21.8%
model 22.8%
Venezia win
28.7%
model 30.7%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.1%
- 2-1 9.2%
- 1-2 7.3%
- 1-0 7.0%
- 2-2 6.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 63.2% | Under 2.5 | 36.8% |
| BTTS yes | 64.0% | BTTS no | 36.0% |
| Frosinone 1+ | 83.8% | Frosinone 2+ | 54.3% |
| Venezia 1+ | 76.3% | Venezia 2+ | 42.2% |
Expected goals 1.82 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
98/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 31%
53.5% fair odds 1.87
strong signal · 556 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 0.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 66%
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Frosinone carry the stronger rating, 1690 Elo against 1617.
- Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
- Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Venezia were missing 0.57 expected goal involvements a match against 0.12.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Frosinone have an estimated 49.5% win probability, against 28.7% for Venezia and 21.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.82 for Frosinone and 1.44 for Venezia.
Why Frosinone
Frosinone carry the stronger rating, 1690 Elo against 1617. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Venezia were missing 0.57 expected goal involvements a match against 0.12.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Venezia can win
Nothing in the data singles out Venezia.
Key players
Frosinone's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Raimondo (0.49), Giorgi Kvernadze (0.27), Giacomo Calo (0.19). Venezia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.34), John Yeboah (0.26), Gaetano Oristanio (0.24).
Availability
1 of Venezia's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Venezia's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Frosinone: 44% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 19.2 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Venezia: 63% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.38 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Frosinone are the model's most likely outcome at 49.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 10
from 15.4 xG
conceded 19
from 17.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.82–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| ai-blend-oos | 1.82–0.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.86–1.42 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 64% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.42 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to win | 46.6% | 48.9% | 39.3% | 1.25× | 2.04 |
| Venezia to win | 30.7% | 28.4% | 34.2% | 0.83× | 3.52 |
| Draw | 22.8% | 21.5% | 26.7% | 0.81× | 4.64 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone & both teams score | 26.8% | 26.5% | 16.7% | 1.58× | 3.78 |
| Frosinone & not both score | 19.8% | 18.1% | 22.7% | 0.80× | 5.52 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.9% | 18.1% | 18.5% | 0.98× | 5.52 |
| Venezia & both teams score | 18.3% | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.37× | 5.52 |
| Venezia & not both score | 12.4% | 11.7% | 21.0% | 0.56× | 8.56 |
| Draw & not both score | 3.8% | 3.5% | 8.3% | 0.42× | 28.79 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone & over 1.5 | 39.6% | 37.4% | 29.0% | 1.29× | 2.68 |
| Frosinone & over 2.5 | 33.2% | 33.8% | 22.3% | 1.52× | 2.96 |
| Frosinone & under 3.5 | 26.3% | 25.3% | 29.5% | 0.86× | 3.95 |
| Venezia & over 1.5 | 25.1% | 25.3% | 24.7% | 1.02× | 3.96 |
| Venezia & over 2.5 | 21.1% | 21.7% | 18.1% | 1.20× | 4.60 |
| Frosinone & over 3.5 | 20.2% | 21.7% | 9.9% | 2.18× | 4.61 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.9% | 17.6% | 18.5% | 0.95× | 5.68 |
| Venezia & under 3.5 | 18.7% | 17.6% | 26.8% | 0.66× | 5.68 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 13.9% | 12.7% | 19.9% | 0.64× | 7.90 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 13.9% | 12.7% | 19.9% | 0.64× | 7.90 |
| Frosinone & under 2.5 | 13.3% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.74× | 7.91 |
| Venezia & over 3.5 | 12.0% | 12.6% | 7.5% | 1.68× | 7.91 |
| Venezia & under 2.5 | 9.5% | 7.3% | 16.2% | 0.45× | 13.70 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 1.06× | 13.70 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 1.06× | 13.70 |
| Frosinone & under 1.5 | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 0.70× | 13.71 |
| Venezia & under 1.5 | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 0.76× | 13.72 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 3.8% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 0.55× | 21.85 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone (1UP) | 64.1% | 63.7% | 54.6% | 1.17× | 1.57 |
| Venezia (1UP) | 50.8% | 52.1% | 50.9% | 1.02× | 1.92 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone (2UP) | 46.6% | 49.8% | 40.9% | 1.22× | 2.01 |
| Venezia (2UP) | 30.7% | 30.4% | 36.6% | 0.83× | 3.29 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to win 2nd half | 43.3% | 39.7% | 34.6% | 1.15× | 2.52 |
| 2nd half drawn | 35.9% | 37.2% | 36.0% | 1.03× | 2.69 |
| Venezia to win 2nd half | 20.8% | 22.1% | 29.6% | 0.75× | 4.52 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia (+2.5) | 88.6% | 89.2% | 92.3% | 0.97× | 1.12 |
| Venezia (+1.5) | 74.6% | 73.0% | 82.8% | 0.88× | 1.37 |
| Frosinone (+0.5) | 69.3% | 69.2% | 65.8% | 1.05× | 1.45 |
| Venezia (+0.5) | 53.4% | 51.9% | 60.7% | 0.85× | 1.93 |
| Frosinone (-0.5) | 46.6% | 48.1% | 39.3% | 1.22× | 2.08 |
| Venezia (-0.5) | 30.7% | 30.8% | 34.2% | 0.90× | 3.25 |
| Frosinone (-1.5) | 25.4% | 27.0% | 17.2% | 1.57× | 3.70 |
| Frosinone (-2.5) | 11.4% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 1.41× | 9.29 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia to concede | 83.8% | 85.4% | 70.8% | 1.21× | 1.17 |
| Venezia clean sheet | 16.2% | 14.6% | 29.2% | 0.50× | 6.83 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia to concede in 1st half | 58.7% | 60.7% | 41.3% | 1.47× | 1.65 |
| Venezia clean sheet in 1st half | 41.3% | 39.3% | 58.7% | 0.67× | 2.55 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia under 6.5 corners | 86.3% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Venezia under 5.5 corners | 77.6% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Venezia over 2.5 corners | 68.0% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Venezia under 4.5 corners | 65.3% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Venezia over 3.5 corners | 50.4% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Venezia under 3.5 corners | 49.6% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Venezia over 4.5 corners | 34.7% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Venezia under 2.5 corners | 32.0% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Venezia over 5.5 corners | 22.4% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Venezia over 6.5 corners | 13.7% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.74 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia under 3.5 goals | 94.2% | 93.1% | 97.1% | 0.96× | 1.07 |
| Venezia under 2.5 goals | 82.3% | 82.5% | 88.3% | 0.94× | 1.21 |
| Venezia over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | 75.2% | 69.1% | 1.09× | 1.33 |
| Venezia under 1.5 goals | 57.8% | 57.5% | 65.6% | 0.88× | 1.74 |
| Venezia over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 42.5% | 34.4% | 1.23× | 2.35 |
| Venezia under 0.5 goals | 23.7% | 24.8% | 30.9% | 0.81× | 4.02 |
| Venezia over 2.5 goals | 17.7% | 17.5% | 11.7% | 1.49× | 5.73 |
| Venezia over 3.5 goals | 5.8% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 2.36× | 14.44 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia under 1.5 in 1st half | 77.6% | 79.5% | 90.1% | 0.88× | 1.26 |
| Venezia over 0.5 in 1st half | 59.0% | 59.6% | 41.2% | 1.45× | 1.68 |
| Venezia under 0.5 in 1st half | 41.0% | 40.4% | 58.8% | 0.69× | 2.47 |
| Venezia over 1.5 in 1st half | 22.4% | 20.5% | 9.9% | 2.06× | 4.87 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone (away no bet) | 67.2% | 71.2% | 59.6% | 1.20× | 1.40 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 32.8% | 28.8% | 40.4% | 0.71× | 3.48 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia even goals | 52.8% | 52.1% | 55.6% | 0.94× | 1.92 |
| Venezia odd goals | 47.2% | 47.9% | 44.4% | 1.08× | 2.09 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 76.8% | 79.6% | 87.2% | 0.91× | 1.26 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 20.4% | 12.8% | 1.60× | 4.91 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 73.5% | 71.4% | 59.4% | 1.20× | 1.40 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 28.6% | 40.6% | 0.71× | 3.49 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 65.0% | 61.4% | 52.8% | 1.16× | 1.63 |
| Frosinone to score 2+ in a row | 43.8% | 44.9% | 31.0% | 1.45× | 2.23 |
| Venezia to score 2+ in a row | 31.0% | 33.7% | 27.6% | 1.22× | 2.97 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 26.1% | 25.0% | 17.3% | 1.44× | 4.00 |
| Frosinone to score 3+ in a row | 17.2% | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.84× | 5.60 |
| Venezia to score 3+ in a row | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 0.95× | 13.59 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone corners (+3.5) | 92.3% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Frosinone corners (+2.5) | 87.8% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Frosinone corners (+1.5) | 81.5% | 79.7% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Venezia corners (+3.5) | 66.8% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Venezia corners (+2.5) | 57.2% | 57.2% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Frosinone corners (-1.5) | 53.3% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Venezia corners (+1.5) | 46.7% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Frosinone corners (-2.5) | 42.8% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Frosinone corners (-3.5) | 33.2% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Venezia corners (-1.5) | 18.5% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.93 |
| Venezia corners (-2.5) | 12.2% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
| Venezia corners (-3.5) | 7.7% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 41.8% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| 12+ corners | 29.9% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 9-11 corners | 28.3% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 77.4% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 70.1% | 72.7% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 68.4% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 61.5% | 63.4% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 58.2% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 52.0% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48.0% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 41.8% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 38.5% | 36.6% | — | — | 2.73 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 31.6% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 29.9% | 27.3% | — | — | 3.66 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 22.6% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.1% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 0.99× | 8.62 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 0.80× | 13.53 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 0.98× | 13.54 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 0.71× | 13.54 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 1.23× | 13.54 |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 1.09× | 13.54 |
| 0-1 | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 0.77× | 13.55 |
| 3-1 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 2.41× | 13.55 |
| Any other score | 5.3% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 2.63× | 13.55 |
| 0-0 | 3.8% | 1.8% | 8.3% | 0.21× | 56.82 |
| 0-2 | 4.0% | 1.8% | 6.8% | 0.26× | 56.82 |
| 1-3 | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.92× | 56.83 |
| 3-0 | 3.9% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 0.51× | 56.82 |
| 3-2 | 4.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 0.66× | 56.82 |
| 2-3 | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 0.57× | 56.84 |
| 4-1 | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.53× | 56.86 |
| 0-3 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 0.53× | 56.88 |
| 1-4 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.30× | 56.90 |
| 3-3 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.97× | 56.88 |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.06× | 56.88 |
| 4-2 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 13.78× | 56.88 |
| 0-4 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.72× | 56.92 |
| 2-4 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 13.78× | 56.90 |
| 3-4 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 6.89× | 56.92 |
| 4-3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 6.89× | 56.91 |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 6.89× | 56.93 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia leading at HT (DNB) | 50.3% | 54.3% | 49.9% | 1.09× | 1.84 |
| Frosinone leading at HT (DNB) | 49.7% | 45.7% | 50.1% | 0.91× | 2.19 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone or Venezia (12) | 77.2% | 78.5% | 73.3% | 1.07× | 1.28 |
| Frosinone or draw (1X) | 69.3% | 71.6% | 65.8% | 1.09× | 1.40 |
| Venezia or draw (X2) | 53.4% | 51.1% | 60.7% | 0.84× | 1.96 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone or Venezia at HT | 66.8% | 65.7% | 54.8% | 1.20× | 1.52 |
| Venezia or draw at HT | 66.8% | 65.7% | 72.4% | 0.91× | 1.52 |
| Frosinone or draw at HT | 66.4% | 65.6% | 72.6% | 0.90× | 1.52 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone or draw (1UP) | 69.3% | 75.1% | 71.0% | 1.06× | 1.33 |
| Venezia or draw (1UP) | 53.4% | 58.6% | 66.2% | 0.89× | 1.71 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone or draw in 2nd half | 79.2% | 77.9% | 70.4% | 1.11× | 1.28 |
| Frosinone or Venezia in 2nd half | 64.1% | 62.8% | 64.0% | 0.98× | 1.59 |
| Venezia or draw in 2nd half | 56.7% | 60.3% | 65.4% | 0.92× | 1.66 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 57.1% | 57.5% | 64.4% | 0.89× | 1.74 |
| Neither half drawn | 42.9% | 42.5% | 35.6% | 1.19× | 2.35 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone (DNB) | 60.3% | 62.4% | 53.5% | 1.17× | 1.60 |
| Venezia (DNB) | 39.7% | 37.6% | 46.5% | 0.81× | 2.66 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to score first | 53.7% | 53.6% | 47.8% | 1.12× | 1.87 |
| Venezia to score first | 42.5% | 41.3% | 44.0% | 0.94× | 2.42 |
| No goal scored | 3.8% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 0.47× | 25.81 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 57.0% | 48.2% | 1.18× | 1.76 |
| Not both teams to score | 36.0% | 43.0% | 51.8% | 0.83× | 2.33 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 53.9% | 46.7% | 36.6% | 1.28× | 2.14 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 26.7% | 31.4% | 41.3% | 0.76× | 3.19 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.1% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 1.00× | 8.49 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 0.81× | 11.72 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 77.1% | 82.3% | 87.1% | 0.94× | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 22.9% | 17.7% | 12.9% | 1.38× | 5.64 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 74.3% | 70.6% | 75.3% | 0.94× | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 25.7% | 29.4% | 24.7% | 1.19× | 3.40 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 48.6% | 54.1% | 63.5% | 0.85× | 1.85 |
| Both score 1st half only | 25.7% | 24.9% | 11.9% | 2.10× | 4.02 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 16.8% | 17.9% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.58 |
| Both score in both halves | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 1.32× | 15.19 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 65.4% | 68.4% | 83.3% | 0.82× | 1.46 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 34.6% | 31.6% | 16.7% | 1.89× | 3.17 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 64.3% | 63.5% | 51.9% | 1.22× | 1.57 |
| A half without a goal | 35.7% | 36.5% | 48.1% | 0.76× | 2.74 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 42.6% | 43.5% | 48.0% | 0.91× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 36.3% | 35.3% | 23.3% | 1.51× | 2.83 |
| 0-1 goals | 16.3% | 20.9% | 28.1% | 0.74× | 4.79 |
| 7+ goals | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.20× | 51.02 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia to score exactly 1 | 34.1% | 33.5% | 34.8% | 0.96× | 2.99 |
| Venezia to score exactly 2 | 24.6% | 24.2% | 22.8% | 1.06× | 4.13 |
| Venezia to score exactly 0 | 23.7% | 24.2% | 30.9% | 0.78× | 4.14 |
| Venezia to score 3+ | 17.7% | 18.1% | 11.7% | 1.54× | 5.53 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to score exactly 1 | 29.5% | 27.5% | 32.1% | 0.86× | 3.63 |
| Frosinone to score 3+ | 27.4% | 27.5% | 14.3% | 1.93× | 3.64 |
| Frosinone to score exactly 2 | 26.8% | 27.5% | 24.6% | 1.12× | 3.64 |
| Frosinone to score exactly 0 | 16.2% | 18.1% | 29.2% | 0.62× | 5.53 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia leading at HT | 33.6% | 34.4% | 27.4% | 1.25× | 2.91 |
| Frosinone leading at HT | 33.2% | 34.3% | 27.6% | 1.25× | 2.91 |
| Draw at HT | 33.2% | 34.3% | 45.2% | 0.76× | 2.91 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone -1: 2 | 53.4% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Frosinone -1: 1 | 25.4% | 26.9% | — | — | 3.72 |
| Frosinone -1: X | 21.1% | 23.7% | — | — | 4.22 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia (0:1) | 53.4% | 54.0% | 60.7% | 0.89× | 1.85 |
| Frosinone (0:1) | 25.4% | 25.7% | 17.2% | 1.49× | 3.90 |
| Draw (0:1) | 21.1% | 24.0% | 22.2% | 1.08× | 4.16 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia (0:2) | 74.6% | 73.5% | 82.8% | 0.89× | 1.36 |
| Draw (0:2) | 14.1% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 1.21× | 8.52 |
| Frosinone (0:2) | 11.4% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 1.52× | 8.58 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia (0:3) | 88.6% | 88.6% | 92.3% | 0.96× | 1.13 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 1.49× | 14.63 |
| Frosinone (0:3) | 4.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 0.65× | 48.24 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia (0:4) | 95.8% | 98.4% | 96.8% | 1.02× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 0.47× | 92.64 |
| Frosinone (0:4) | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.04× | 93.86 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone (1:0) | 69.3% | 70.7% | 65.8% | 1.07× | 1.41 |
| Draw (1:0) | 16.7% | 17.0% | 20.0% | 0.85× | 5.90 |
| Venezia (1:0) | 13.9% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 0.80× | 8.77 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone (2:0) | 86.1% | 90.2% | 85.7% | 1.05× | 1.11 |
| Draw (2:0) | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 0.76× | 15.36 |
| Venezia (2:0) | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 1.09× | 15.60 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half highest scoring | 44.6% | 49.0% | 26.9% | 1.82× | 2.04 |
| 2nd half highest scoring | 32.4% | 25.4% | 46.3% | 0.55× | 3.93 |
| Halves equal | 22.9% | 23.4% | 26.9% | 0.87× | 4.28 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to concede | 76.3% | 76.6% | 69.1% | 1.11× | 1.31 |
| Frosinone clean sheet | 23.7% | 23.4% | 30.9% | 0.76× | 4.27 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to concede in 1st half | 59.0% | 59.5% | 41.2% | 1.44× | 1.68 |
| Frosinone clean sheet in 1st half | 41.0% | 40.5% | 58.8% | 0.69× | 2.47 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone over 2.5 corners | 86.2% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Frosinone over 3.5 corners | 74.9% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Frosinone under 6.5 corners | 63.1% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Frosinone over 4.5 corners | 61.9% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Frosinone under 5.5 corners | 51.2% | 52.8% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Frosinone over 5.5 corners | 48.8% | 47.2% | — | — | 2.12 |
| Frosinone under 4.5 corners | 38.1% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Frosinone over 6.5 corners | 36.9% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Frosinone under 3.5 corners | 25.1% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Frosinone under 2.5 corners | 13.8% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.28 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone under 3.5 goals | 88.8% | 88.3% | 95.4% | 0.93× | 1.13 |
| Frosinone over 0.5 goals | 83.8% | 82.8% | 70.8% | 1.17× | 1.21 |
| Frosinone under 2.5 goals | 72.6% | 72.0% | 85.7% | 0.84× | 1.39 |
| Frosinone over 1.5 goals | 54.3% | 52.8% | 38.8% | 1.36× | 1.90 |
| Frosinone under 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 47.2% | 61.2% | 0.77× | 2.12 |
| Frosinone over 2.5 goals | 27.4% | 28.0% | 14.3% | 1.96× | 3.57 |
| Frosinone under 0.5 goals | 16.2% | 17.2% | 29.2% | 0.59× | 5.82 |
| Frosinone over 3.5 goals | 11.2% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 2.54× | 8.57 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone under 1.5 in 1st half | 77.9% | 77.9% | 90.2% | 0.86× | 1.28 |
| Frosinone over 0.5 in 1st half | 58.7% | 60.6% | 41.3% | 1.47× | 1.65 |
| Frosinone under 0.5 in 1st half | 41.3% | 39.4% | 58.7% | 0.67× | 2.54 |
| Frosinone over 1.5 in 1st half | 22.1% | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.25× | 4.53 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia (home no bet) | 57.4% | 55.4% | 56.2% | 0.99× | 1.80 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 42.6% | 44.6% | 43.8% | 1.02× | 2.24 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone even goals | 51.3% | 50.1% | 56.9% | 0.88× | 2.00 |
| Frosinone odd goals | 48.7% | 49.9% | 43.1% | 1.16× | 2.01 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 17.0% | 19.1% | 34.2% | 0.56× | 5.24 |
| HT 0-1 | 15.1% | 19.0% | 18.4% | 1.04× | 5.25 |
| HT 1-0 | 15.0% | 11.2% | 18.4% | 0.61× | 8.89 |
| HT 1-1 | 13.4% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 1.06× | 8.91 |
| Any other HT score | 11.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 3.66× | 8.93 |
| HT 0-2 | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.40× | 13.04 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.40× | 13.04 |
| HT 1-2 | 5.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.00× | 13.05 |
| HT 2-1 | 5.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 3.34× | 13.05 |
| HT 2-2 | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 3.90× | 40.23 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone at HT / Frosinone at FT | 28.3% | 27.6% | 21.3% | 1.30× | 3.62 |
| Venezia at HT / Venezia at FT | 22.6% | 21.3% | 19.4% | 1.10× | 4.69 |
| Draw at HT / Frosinone at FT | 14.4% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 0.77× | 8.31 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 11.9% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 0.72× | 8.33 |
| Venezia at HT / Draw at FT | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 1.14× | 15.31 |
| Draw at HT / Venezia at FT | 6.9% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 0.50× | 15.32 |
| Venezia at HT / Frosinone at FT | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.34× | 29.16 |
| Frosinone at HT / Draw at FT | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 0.77× | 29.16 |
| Frosinone at HT / Venezia at FT | 1.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.67× | 29.28 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to score last | 53.7% | 53.7% | 48.0% | 1.12× | 1.86 |
| Venezia to score last | 42.5% | 40.4% | 43.9% | 0.92× | 2.48 |
| No goal scored | 3.8% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 0.47× | 25.81 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 96.2% | 96.1% | 91.7% | 1.05× | 1.04 |
| Frosinone to lead by 1 at any time | 64.1% | 64.2% | 54.6% | 1.18× | 1.56 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 54.2% | 50.8% | 42.7% | 1.19× | 1.97 |
| Venezia to lead by 1 at any time | 50.8% | 50.7% | 50.9% | 1.00× | 1.97 |
| Frosinone to lead by 2 at any time | 33.5% | 32.1% | 23.0% | 1.40× | 3.12 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 21.6% | 19.7% | 14.7% | 1.34× | 5.08 |
| Venezia to lead by 2 at any time | 21.1% | 19.7% | 20.2% | 0.98× | 5.09 |
| Frosinone to lead by 3 at any time | 14.5% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 1.34× | 8.87 |
| Venezia to lead by 3 at any time | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 1.10× | 14.22 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone most corners | 63.7% | 60.5% | — | — | 1.65 |
| Venezia most corners | 26.7% | 31.0% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Corners level | 9.6% | 8.5% | — | — | 11.79 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.9% | 82.6% | 89.0% | 0.93× | 1.21 |
| 2-6 goals | 78.8% | 78.9% | 71.2% | 1.11× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 73.1% | 73.6% | 80.7% | 0.91× | 1.36 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.4% | 73.5% | 69.3% | 1.06× | 1.36 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.6% | 62.7% | 61.0% | 1.03× | 1.60 |
| 3-6 goals | 58.4% | 58.9% | 46.3% | 1.27× | 1.70 |
| 1-3 goals | 55.1% | 58.9% | 67.7% | 0.87× | 1.70 |
| 3-5 goals | 52.0% | 52.0% | 44.4% | 1.17× | 1.92 |
| 2-3 goals | 42.6% | 43.5% | 48.0% | 0.91× | 2.30 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.2% | 43.5% | 36.1% | 1.21× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 36.3% | 39.2% | 23.3% | 1.68× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 32.9% | 33.9% | 44.8% | 0.76× | 2.95 |
| 4-5 goals | 29.9% | 29.4% | 21.4% | 1.37× | 3.40 |
| 5-6 goals | 18.2% | 17.6% | 10.3% | 1.70× | 5.69 |
| 7+ goals | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.16× | 51.93 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone never behind | 45.3% | 53.8% | 49.1% | 1.10× | 1.86 |
| Venezia never behind | 32.0% | 36.4% | 45.4% | 0.80× | 2.74 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.4% | 51.7% | 0.97× | 1.99 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.6% | 48.3% | 1.03× | 2.01 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 51.4% | 51.2% | 56.8% | 0.90× | 1.96 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 48.6% | 48.8% | 43.2% | 1.13× | 2.05 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.6% | 51.7% | 51.7% | 1.00× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.4% | 48.3% | 48.3% | 1.00× | 2.07 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96.2% | 96.3% | 91.7% | 1.05× | 1.04 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 88.8% | 89.3% | 97.2% | 0.92× | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | 81.0% | 71.9% | 1.13× | 1.23 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 77.0% | 78.3% | 88.9% | 0.88× | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 61.6% | 47.1% | 1.31× | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58.9% | 57.4% | 75.9% | 0.76× | 1.74 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 42.6% | 24.1% | 1.77× | 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | 38.4% | 52.9% | 0.73× | 2.60 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23.0% | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.95× | 4.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.3% | 19.0% | 28.1% | 0.68× | 5.28 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 11.2% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 3.81× | 9.36 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3.8% | 3.7% | 8.3% | 0.45× | 26.89 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 94.8% | 93.2% | 99.1% | 0.94× | 1.07 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 87.3% | 88.7% | 96.9% | 0.92× | 1.13 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 79.5% | 77.0% | 62.6% | 1.23× | 1.30 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 71.9% | 72.3% | 87.2% | 0.83× | 1.38 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 52.8% | 53.5% | 31.3% | 1.71× | 1.87 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 47.2% | 46.5% | 68.7% | 0.68× | 2.15 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 28.1% | 27.7% | 12.8% | 2.17× | 3.62 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 20.5% | 23.0% | 37.4% | 0.61× | 4.35 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 12.7% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 3.69× | 8.85 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 5.2% | 6.8% | 0.9% | 7.52× | 14.60 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 83.0% | 83.5% | 65.8% | 1.27× | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 73.7% | 72.6% | 91.8% | 0.79× | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 53.0% | 57.4% | 29.3% | 1.96× | 1.74 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 47.0% | 42.6% | 70.7% | 0.60× | 2.35 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 26.3% | 27.4% | 8.2% | 3.36× | 3.65 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 17.0% | 16.5% | 34.2% | 0.48× | 6.08 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 81.2% | 82.1% | 82.8% | 0.99× | 1.22 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 77.4% | 80.5% | 77.8% | 1.03× | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 56.3% | 54.4% | 57.1% | 0.95× | 1.84 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 43.7% | 45.6% | 42.9% | 1.06× | 2.19 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 22.6% | 19.5% | 22.2% | 0.88× | 5.12 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 18.8% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 1.04× | 5.59 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia not to score in both halves | 75.0% | 78.1% | 78.7% | 0.99× | 1.28 |
| Frosinone not to score in both halves | 64.3% | 62.8% | 76.1% | 0.82× | 1.59 |
| Frosinone to score in both halves | 35.7% | 37.2% | 23.9% | 1.56× | 2.69 |
| Venezia to score in both halves | 25.0% | 21.9% | 21.3% | 1.03× | 4.56 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 64.0% | 57.5% | 48.2% | 1.19× | 1.74 |
| Only Frosinone scores | 19.8% | 17.3% | 22.7% | 0.76× | 5.78 |
| Only Venezia scores | 12.4% | 10.2% | 21.0% | 0.49× | 9.76 |
| Neither team scores | 3.8% | 3.6% | 8.3% | 0.44× | 27.47 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.2% | 21.6% | 23.1% | 0.94× | 4.63 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 20.4% | 21.6% | 25.0% | 0.86× | 4.64 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 18.1% | 18.6% | 13.1% | 1.42× | 5.37 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 12.5% | 12.5% | 19.9% | 0.63× | 7.99 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 11.8% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 1.49× | 7.99 |
| 6 or more goals | 11.2% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 4.46× | 8.00 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 3.8% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 0.46× | 26.39 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 43.7% | 45.8% | 42.9% | 1.07× | 2.18 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.6% | 33.4% | 35.1% | 0.95× | 2.99 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 22.6% | 18.4% | 22.2% | 0.83× | 5.42 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia not to win both halves | 93.0% | 93.4% | 91.3% | 1.02× | 1.07 |
| Frosinone not to win both halves | 85.6% | 87.3% | 90.2% | 0.97× | 1.15 |
| Frosinone to win both halves | 14.4% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 1.29× | 7.89 |
| Venezia to win both halves | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 0.76× | 15.20 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to win either half | 62.1% | 63.7% | 52.3% | 1.22× | 1.57 |
| Venezia to win neither half | 52.6% | 54.0% | 51.7% | 1.05× | 1.85 |
| Venezia to win either half | 47.4% | 46.0% | 48.3% | 0.95× | 2.17 |
| Frosinone to win neither half | 37.9% | 36.3% | 47.7% | 0.76× | 2.76 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia not to win to nil | 87.6% | 88.9% | 79.0% | 1.13× | 1.13 |
| Frosinone not to win to nil | 80.2% | 82.4% | 77.3% | 1.07× | 1.21 |
| Frosinone to win to nil | 19.8% | 17.6% | 22.7% | 0.78× | 5.68 |
| Venezia to win to nil | 12.4% | 11.1% | 21.0% | 0.53× | 9.01 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 22.8% | 23.9% | 26.7% | 0.90× | 4.19 |
| Frosinone by 1 | 21.1% | 23.9% | 22.2% | 1.08× | 4.19 |
| Venezia by 1 | 16.7% | 17.3% | 20.0% | 0.86× | 5.78 |
| Frosinone by 2 | 14.1% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 1.24× | 8.33 |
| Frosinone by 3+ | 11.4% | 12.0% | 7.7% | 1.56× | 8.36 |
| Venezia by 2 | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 0.81× | 14.48 |
| Venezia by 3+ | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 1.17× | 14.58 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Frosinone 1.79 xGVenezia 2.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Frosinone attacking right
Venezia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Frosinone |
Giacomo Calo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Venezia |
Albion Rrahmani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 13' |
Venezia |
Redouane Halal | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 20' |
Frosinone |
Antonio Raimondo | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Goal | Anthony Oyono |
| 25' |
Frosinone |
Antonio Raimondo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Calo |
| 30' |
Venezia |
Akor Adams | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Hainaut |
| 31' |
Frosinone |
Antonio Raimondo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriele Bracaglia |
| 35' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joël Schingtienne |
| 38' |
Frosinone |
Antonio Raimondo | 0.76 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Patrizio Masini |
| 45' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Akor Adams |
| 46' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Venezia |
Richie Sagrado | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Hainaut |
| 49' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 53' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Busio |
| 54' |
Venezia |
Richie Sagrado | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 58' |
Venezia |
Akor Adams | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Frosinone |
Farès Ghedjemis | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriele Bracaglia |
| 65' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Gianluca Busio |
| 72' |
Frosinone |
Farès Ghedjemis | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Kvernadze |
| 73' |
Venezia |
Richie Sagrado | 0.91 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Antoine Hainaut |
| 77' |
Frosinone |
Anthony Oyono | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Giacomo Calo |
| 79' |
Venezia |
Antoine Hainaut | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John Yeboah |
| 81' |
Frosinone |
Gabriele Calvani | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giacomo Calo |
| 82' |
Frosinone |
Giorgi Kvernadze | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 91' |
Frosinone |
Giorgi Kvernadze | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriele Bracaglia |
| 91' |
Frosinone |
Matteo Cichella | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Venezia |
Matías Moreno | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kike Pérez |
Players
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Hainaut DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | 1.12 | 1.32 |
| Gianluca Busio MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1.05 |
| Redouane Halal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Joël Schingtienne DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Kike Pérez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| Filip Stankovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ridgeciano Haps DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Richie Sagrado Sub | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Akor Adams FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.01 | 0.45 |
| Albion Rrahmani FW | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| John Yeboah Sub | 40 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.29 | 0.74 |
| Toni Fernández Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lion Lauberbach Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matías Moreno Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Frosinone
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgi Kvernadze AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.85 |
| Gabriele Calvani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Giacomo Calo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.44 |
| Anthony Oyono DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.69 |
| Lorenzo Palmisani GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrizio Masini DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| Gabriele Bracaglia DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.99 |
| Antonio Raimondo FW | 83 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Giorgio Cittadini DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Romano Schmid AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Seydou Fini AMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Farès Ghedjemis Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Matteo Cichella Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Daniel Bîrligea Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ilario Monterisi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wisdom Amey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |