Frosinone v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Frosinone

3–2

1.79 – 2.44 xG

Venezia

Shots

12 – 15

On target

7 – 4

Shots in box

9 – 8

xG per shot

0.15 – 0.16

Set-piece xG

0.06 – 0.31

Goals − xG

+1.21 – -0.44

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 6 Sep, 07:53 · 5h before kick-off

Frosinone win

49.5%

model 46.6%

Draw

21.8%

model 22.8%

Venezia win

28.7%

model 30.7%

492229

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.1%
2-1 9.2%
1-2 7.3%
1-0 7.0%
2-2 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.2%	Under 2.5	36.8%
BTTS yes	64.0%	BTTS no	36.0%
Frosinone 1+	83.8%	Frosinone 2+	54.3%
Venezia 1+	76.3%	Venezia 2+	42.2%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 31%

53.5% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 556 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Over 0.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 66%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Frosinone carry the stronger rating, 1690 Elo against 1617.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Venezia were missing 0.57 expected goal involvements a match against 0.12.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Frosinone have an estimated 49.5% win probability, against 28.7% for Venezia and 21.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.82 for Frosinone and 1.44 for Venezia.

Why Frosinone

Frosinone carry the stronger rating, 1690 Elo against 1617. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Venezia were missing 0.57 expected goal involvements a match against 0.12.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Venezia can win

Nothing in the data singles out Venezia.

Key players

Frosinone's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Raimondo (0.49), Giorgi Kvernadze (0.27), Giacomo Calo (0.19). Venezia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.34), John Yeboah (0.26), Gaetano Oristanio (0.24).

Availability

1 of Venezia's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Venezia's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Frosinone: 44% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 19.2 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Venezia: 63% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.38 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Frosinone are the model's most likely outcome at 49.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Frosinone are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDWLW last 7 scored 13 from 11.9 xG conceded 9 from 16.4 xG

Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLLLLLLLLW last 10 scored 10 from 16.4 xG conceded 23 from 23.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	472331	1.82–1.44	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	622117	1.82–0.81	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	482329	1.86–1.42	1-1 10%	64%	64%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	482329	1.86–1.42	1-1 10%	64%	64%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to win	48.9%	47.5%	39.3%	1.21×	2.11
Venezia to win	29.4%	27.9%	34.2%	0.82×	3.59
Draw	21.7%	24.4%	26.7%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone & both teams score	29.8%	25.2%	16.7%	1.51×	3.97
Frosinone & not both score	19.1%	17.9%	22.7%	0.79×	5.58
Venezia & both teams score	18.8%	17.9%	13.3%	1.35×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.9%	18.5%	0.97×	5.58
Venezia & not both score	10.7%	13.2%	21.0%	0.63×	7.55
Draw & not both score	3.0%	4.9%	8.3%	0.59×	20.52

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone & over 1.5	42.9%	40.3%	29.0%	1.39×	2.48
Frosinone & over 2.5	36.9%	34.9%	22.3%	1.56×	2.86
Frosinone & under 3.5	25.0%	21.6%	29.5%	0.73×	4.62
Venezia & over 1.5	24.9%	21.6%	24.7%	0.87×	4.62
Frosinone & over 3.5	23.9%	21.6%	9.9%	2.17×	4.62
Venezia & over 2.5	21.4%	21.6%	18.1%	1.19×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	18.5%	0.97×	5.56
Venezia & under 3.5	16.6%	18.0%	26.8%	0.67×	5.56
Venezia & over 3.5	12.8%	12.9%	7.5%	1.71×	7.78
Frosinone & under 2.5	12.0%	12.9%	17.1%	0.75×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	12.1%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	12.1%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	9.6%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.69
Venezia & under 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	16.2%	0.49×	12.69
Frosinone & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.69
Venezia & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	3.0%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (1UP)	66.8%	69.9%	54.6%	1.28×	1.43
Venezia (1UP)	50.7%	52.7%	50.9%	1.03×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (2UP)	48.9%	50.0%	40.9%	1.22×	2.00
Venezia (2UP)	29.4%	24.7%	36.6%	0.68×	4.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to win 2nd half	46.1%	45.6%	34.6%	1.32×	2.19
2nd half drawn	32.5%	34.4%	36.0%	0.96×	2.90
Venezia to win 2nd half	21.4%	22.9%	29.6%	0.77×	4.36

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (+2.5)	86.7%	88.5%	92.3%	0.96×	1.13
Venezia (+1.5)	72.0%	73.7%	82.8%	0.89×	1.36
Frosinone (+0.5)	70.6%	73.7%	65.8%	1.12×	1.36
Venezia (+0.5)	51.1%	52.3%	60.7%	0.86×	1.91
Frosinone (-0.5)	48.9%	47.7%	39.3%	1.21×	2.10
Venezia (-0.5)	29.4%	26.3%	34.2%	0.77×	3.80
Frosinone (-1.5)	28.0%	26.3%	17.2%	1.53×	3.80
Frosinone (-2.5)	13.3%	11.5%	7.7%	1.50×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede	86.3%	86.4%	70.8%	1.22×	1.16
Venezia clean sheet	13.7%	13.6%	29.2%	0.46×	7.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede in 1st half	59.6%	57.8%	41.3%	1.40×	1.73
Venezia clean sheet in 1st half	40.4%	42.2%	58.7%	0.72×	2.37

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 6.5 corners	87.6%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Venezia under 5.5 corners	79.1%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Venezia over 2.5 corners	67.1%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Venezia under 4.5 corners	66.9%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Venezia under 3.5 corners	51.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Venezia over 3.5 corners	49.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Venezia over 4.5 corners	33.1%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Venezia under 2.5 corners	32.9%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Venezia over 5.5 corners	20.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
Venezia over 6.5 corners	12.4%	15.1%	—	—	6.63

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 3.5 goals	93.3%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Venezia under 2.5 goals	80.6%	81.5%	88.3%	0.92×	1.23
Venezia over 0.5 goals	77.9%	76.2%	69.1%	1.10×	1.31
Venezia under 1.5 goals	55.4%	59.6%	65.6%	0.91×	1.68
Venezia over 1.5 goals	44.6%	40.4%	34.4%	1.17×	2.48
Venezia under 0.5 goals	22.1%	23.8%	30.9%	0.77×	4.21
Venezia over 2.5 goals	19.4%	18.5%	11.7%	1.58×	5.39
Venezia over 3.5 goals	6.7%	7.6%	2.9%	2.61×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 1st half	78.2%	76.0%	90.1%	0.84×	1.32
Venezia over 0.5 in 1st half	58.3%	63.0%	41.2%	1.53×	1.59
Venezia under 0.5 in 1st half	41.7%	37.0%	58.8%	0.63×	2.70
Venezia over 1.5 in 1st half	21.9%	24.0%	9.9%	2.41×	4.17

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (away no bet)	69.3%	66.5%	59.6%	1.12×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	30.7%	33.5%	40.4%	0.83×	2.99

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia even goals	52.4%	52.7%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Venezia odd goals	47.6%	47.3%	44.4%	1.06×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	72.7%	77.2%	87.2%	0.89×	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	27.3%	22.8%	12.8%	1.79×	4.39

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.2%	72.7%	59.4%	1.22×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.8%	27.3%	40.6%	0.67×	3.67

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.7%	62.3%	52.8%	1.18×	1.61
Frosinone to score 2+ in a row	48.0%	46.1%	31.0%	1.49×	2.17
Venezia to score 2+ in a row	32.3%	28.5%	27.6%	1.03×	3.51
Either team to score 3+ in a row	29.2%	25.2%	17.3%	1.45×	3.97
Frosinone to score 3+ in a row	20.1%	19.3%	9.7%	1.99×	5.19
Venezia to score 3+ in a row	9.9%	5.6%	7.8%	0.73×	17.73

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone corners (+3.5)	92.1%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Frosinone corners (+2.5)	87.2%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Frosinone corners (+1.5)	80.3%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Venezia corners (+3.5)	70.8%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Venezia corners (+2.5)	60.9%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Venezia corners (+1.5)	50.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Frosinone corners (-1.5)	50.0%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Frosinone corners (-2.5)	39.1%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Frosinone corners (-3.5)	29.2%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Venezia corners (-1.5)	19.7%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Venezia corners (-2.5)	12.8%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Venezia corners (-3.5)	7.9%	11.3%	—	—	8.81

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.9%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
9-11 corners	28.4%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	24.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 11.5 corners	75.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.0%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	64.0%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 9.5 corners	57.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.1%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 8.5 corners	46.9%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 9.5 corners	42.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 10.5 corners	33.0%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	24.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	18.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	11.7%	0.63×	13.46
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	9.2%	0.81×	13.46
1-2	6.9%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.46
2-2	6.8%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.46
Any other score	7.0%	7.4%	2.8%	2.65×	13.46
1-0	6.0%	7.4%	10.5%	0.71×	13.46
2-0	6.0%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.46
3-1	6.0%	7.4%	3.1%	2.43×	13.46
0-0	3.0%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.58
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	9.6%	0.18×	58.57
0-2	3.4%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.57
0-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.58
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.67×	58.59
1-3	3.5%	1.7%	1.9%	0.89×	58.57
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.59
2-3	3.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.57
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.38×	58.59
3-0	4.0%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.57
3-2	4.5%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.57
3-3	2.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.91×	58.58
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.58
4-1	3.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.58
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.38×	58.58
4-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone leading at HT (DNB)	51.2%	55.5%	50.1%	1.11×	1.80
Venezia leading at HT (DNB)	48.8%	44.5%	49.9%	0.89×	2.25

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone or Venezia (12)	78.3%	75.6%	73.3%	1.03×	1.32
Frosinone or draw (1X)	70.6%	72.1%	65.8%	1.10×	1.39
Venezia or draw (X2)	51.1%	52.5%	60.7%	0.86×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone or draw at HT	67.4%	66.1%	72.6%	0.91×	1.51
Frosinone or Venezia at HT	66.9%	66.1%	54.8%	1.20×	1.51
Venezia or draw at HT	65.7%	66.0%	72.4%	0.91×	1.51

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone or draw (1UP)	70.6%	79.8%	71.0%	1.12×	1.25
Venezia or draw (1UP)	51.1%	58.6%	66.2%	0.89×	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone or draw in 2nd half	78.6%	77.1%	70.4%	1.09×	1.30
Frosinone or Venezia in 2nd half	67.5%	65.6%	64.0%	1.02×	1.53
Venezia or draw in 2nd half	53.9%	54.4%	65.4%	0.83×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.9%	50.3%	64.4%	0.78×	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.1%	49.7%	35.6%	1.40×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (DNB)	62.4%	62.9%	53.5%	1.18×	1.59
Venezia (DNB)	37.6%	37.1%	46.5%	0.80×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to score first	55.1%	62.0%	47.8%	1.30×	1.61
Venezia to score first	41.9%	41.6%	44.0%	0.95×	2.40
No goal scored	3.0%	4.3%	8.3%	0.52×	23.10

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.3%	58.2%	48.2%	1.21×	1.72
Not both teams to score	32.7%	41.8%	51.8%	0.81×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	58.2%	47.2%	36.6%	1.29×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	23.0%	27.7%	41.3%	0.67×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	9.7%	8.4%	10.6%	0.79×	11.95
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.4%	11.7%	0.71×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	73.6%	80.6%	87.1%	0.93×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	26.4%	19.4%	12.9%	1.50×	5.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.9%	67.7%	75.3%	0.90×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.1%	32.3%	24.7%	1.30×	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	44.9%	50.4%	63.5%	0.79×	1.98
Both score 1st half only	23.9%	21.2%	11.9%	1.79×	4.72
Both score 2nd half only	20.3%	21.0%	19.9%	1.06×	4.75
Both score in both halves	10.8%	10.5%	5.0%	2.10×	9.56

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	65.3%	68.6%	83.3%	0.82×	1.46
Both teams to score by HT	34.7%	31.4%	16.7%	1.88×	3.19

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	68.3%	66.8%	51.9%	1.29×	1.50
A half without a goal	31.7%	33.2%	48.1%	0.69×	3.01

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.1%	42.1%	48.0%	0.88×	2.38
4-6 goals	39.8%	35.0%	23.3%	1.50×	2.86
0-1 goals	13.6%	16.9%	28.1%	0.60×	5.90
7+ goals	6.5%	7.6%	0.9%	8.51×	13.16

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to score exactly 1	33.3%	33.9%	34.8%	0.97×	2.95
Venezia to score exactly 2	25.2%	27.4%	22.8%	1.20×	3.65
Venezia to score exactly 0	22.1%	22.4%	30.9%	0.73×	4.47
Venezia to score 3+	19.4%	19.6%	11.7%	1.67×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to score 3+	32.0%	32.6%	14.3%	2.28×	3.06
Frosinone to score exactly 1	27.2%	26.5%	32.1%	0.82×	3.77
Frosinone to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Frosinone to score exactly 0	13.7%	14.4%	29.2%	0.49×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone leading at HT	34.3%	34.0%	27.6%	1.23×	2.94
Draw at HT	33.1%	33.9%	45.2%	0.75×	2.95
Venezia leading at HT	32.6%	33.9%	27.4%	1.24×	2.95

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone -1: 2	51.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Frosinone -1: 1	28.0%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Frosinone -1: X	20.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:1)	51.1%	51.1%	60.7%	0.84×	1.96
Frosinone (0:1)	28.0%	27.0%	17.2%	1.57×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	20.9%	24.3%	22.2%	1.09×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:2)	72.0%	75.5%	82.8%	0.91×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.7%	11.0%	9.7%	1.14×	9.07
Frosinone (0:2)	13.3%	11.0%	7.7%	1.44×	9.08

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:3)	86.7%	90.7%	92.3%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.0%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.22
Frosinone (0:3)	5.3%	5.8%	3.2%	1.82×	17.27

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:4)	94.7%	94.7%	96.8%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.5%	1.2%	2.3%	0.52×	83.06
Frosinone (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	1.0%	1.18×	83.26

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (1:0)	70.6%	72.5%	65.8%	1.10×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.9%	17.0%	20.0%	0.85×	5.88
Venezia (1:0)	13.6%	12.8%	14.3%	0.90×	7.80

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone (2:0)	86.4%	88.3%	85.7%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.5%	6.5%	8.5%	0.76×	15.48
Venezia (2:0)	5.1%	6.4%	5.9%	1.10×	15.52

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	40.1%	45.6%	26.9%	1.69×	2.19
2nd half highest scoring	37.6%	37.6%	46.3%	0.81×	2.66
Halves equal	22.3%	24.2%	26.9%	0.90×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede	77.9%	75.9%	69.1%	1.10×	1.32
Frosinone clean sheet	22.1%	24.1%	30.9%	0.78×	4.15

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to concede in 1st half	58.3%	63.0%	41.2%	1.53×	1.59
Frosinone clean sheet in 1st half	41.7%	37.0%	58.8%	0.63×	2.70

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone over 2.5 corners	83.9%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Frosinone over 3.5 corners	71.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Frosinone under 6.5 corners	68.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Frosinone over 4.5 corners	57.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Frosinone under 5.5 corners	56.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Frosinone over 5.5 corners	43.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Frosinone under 4.5 corners	43.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Frosinone over 6.5 corners	31.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Frosinone under 3.5 corners	28.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Frosinone under 2.5 corners	16.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone over 0.5 goals	86.3%	87.2%	70.8%	1.23×	1.15
Frosinone under 3.5 goals	85.9%	87.2%	95.4%	0.91×	1.15
Frosinone under 2.5 goals	68.0%	67.9%	85.7%	0.79×	1.47
Frosinone over 1.5 goals	59.1%	58.8%	38.8%	1.52×	1.70
Frosinone under 1.5 goals	40.9%	41.2%	61.2%	0.67×	2.43
Frosinone over 2.5 goals	32.0%	32.1%	14.3%	2.24×	3.12
Frosinone over 3.5 goals	14.1%	12.8%	4.6%	2.78×	7.83
Frosinone under 0.5 goals	13.7%	12.8%	29.2%	0.44×	7.83

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone under 1.5 in 1st half	77.1%	76.9%	90.2%	0.85×	1.30
Frosinone over 0.5 in 1st half	59.6%	57.4%	41.3%	1.39×	1.74
Frosinone under 0.5 in 1st half	40.4%	42.6%	58.7%	0.73×	2.35
Frosinone over 1.5 in 1st half	22.9%	23.1%	9.8%	2.35×	4.33

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (home no bet)	57.6%	56.7%	56.2%	1.01×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	42.4%	43.3%	43.8%	0.99×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone even goals	50.9%	50.6%	56.9%	0.89×	1.98
Frosinone odd goals	49.1%	49.4%	43.1%	1.14×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	16.9%	18.9%	34.2%	0.55×	5.30
HT 1-0	15.3%	18.8%	18.4%	1.03×	5.31
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.1%	18.4%	0.60×	9.02
HT 1-1	13.4%	11.1%	10.6%	1.05×	9.04
Any other HT score	11.9%	11.0%	3.1%	3.61×	9.05
HT 2-0	6.9%	7.1%	5.5%	1.29×	14.11
HT 0-2	6.5%	7.1%	5.5%	1.29×	14.12
HT 2-1	6.0%	7.1%	2.3%	3.08×	14.12
HT 1-2	5.8%	7.1%	2.6%	2.78×	14.13
HT 2-2	2.6%	2.2%	0.6%	3.51×	44.73

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone at HT / Frosinone at FT	29.0%	26.7%	21.3%	1.26×	3.74
Venezia at HT / Venezia at FT	21.0%	22.1%	19.4%	1.14×	4.53
Draw at HT / Frosinone at FT	15.3%	16.8%	15.7%	1.07×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.8%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.91
Draw at HT / Venezia at FT	7.1%	6.0%	13.0%	0.46×	16.58
Venezia at HT / Draw at FT	7.0%	6.0%	5.7%	1.05×	16.59
Venezia at HT / Frosinone at FT	4.6%	3.4%	2.6%	1.35×	29.10
Frosinone at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.4%	4.5%	0.77×	29.13
Frosinone at HT / Venezia at FT	1.3%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.23

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to score last	55.1%	56.4%	48.0%	1.18×	1.77
Venezia to score last	41.9%	40.1%	43.9%	0.91×	2.49
No goal scored	3.0%	4.3%	8.3%	0.52×	23.10

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.0%	95.6%	91.7%	1.04×	1.05
Frosinone to lead by 1 at any time	66.8%	69.4%	54.6%	1.27×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.5%	55.0%	42.7%	1.29×	1.82
Venezia to lead by 1 at any time	50.7%	50.5%	50.9%	0.99×	1.98
Frosinone to lead by 2 at any time	36.8%	34.7%	23.0%	1.51×	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.3%	19.6%	14.7%	1.34×	5.09
Venezia to lead by 2 at any time	21.3%	19.6%	20.2%	0.97×	5.11
Frosinone to lead by 3 at any time	16.9%	14.9%	8.4%	1.77×	6.70
Venezia to lead by 3 at any time	7.4%	6.5%	6.4%	1.02×	15.33

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone most corners	61.1%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Venezia most corners	28.5%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Corners level	10.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.8%	83.5%	89.0%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.9%	78.6%	71.2%	1.10×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.4%	69.3%	1.05×	1.38
1-4 goals	69.5%	69.0%	80.7%	0.85×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.4%	63.5%	46.3%	1.37×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.0%	59.2%	61.0%	0.97×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.7%	53.1%	44.4%	1.20×	1.88
1-3 goals	50.6%	53.1%	67.7%	0.78×	1.88
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	36.1%	1.21×	2.29
2-3 goals	40.1%	43.6%	48.0%	0.91×	2.29
4-6 goals	39.8%	39.2%	23.3%	1.68×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.1%	35.4%	21.4%	1.65×	2.83
1-2 goals	29.1%	30.2%	44.8%	0.67×	3.31
5-6 goals	20.9%	24.4%	10.3%	2.37×	4.09
7+ goals	6.5%	8.7%	0.9%	9.78×	11.45

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone never behind	46.3%	57.0%	49.1%	1.16×	1.75
Venezia never behind	30.2%	35.3%	45.4%	0.78×	2.84

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.8%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.2%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.4%	51.5%	56.8%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.6%	48.5%	43.2%	1.12×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	52.0%	51.7%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.0%	48.3%	0.99×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.0%	95.5%	91.7%	1.04×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	86.4%	87.7%	71.9%	1.22×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	85.8%	87.7%	97.2%	0.90×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	72.5%	72.5%	88.9%	0.82×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.9%	66.3%	47.1%	1.41×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	53.7%	52.4%	75.9%	0.69×	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	46.3%	47.6%	24.1%	1.97×	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	32.1%	33.7%	52.9%	0.64×	2.96
Over 4.5 goals	27.5%	27.5%	11.1%	2.47×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	14.2%	12.3%	2.8%	4.40×	8.11
Under 1.5 goals	13.6%	12.3%	28.1%	0.44×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	3.0%	4.5%	8.3%	0.54×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	92.9%	92.5%	99.1%	0.93×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	83.6%	81.1%	96.9%	0.84×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	83.3%	81.1%	62.6%	1.30×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	66.2%	67.3%	87.2%	0.77×	1.49
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.1%	55.6%	31.3%	1.78×	1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.9%	44.4%	68.7%	0.65×	2.25
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	33.8%	32.7%	12.8%	2.56×	3.06
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.7%	18.9%	37.4%	0.51×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	16.4%	18.9%	3.1%	6.17×	5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	7.1%	7.5%	0.9%	8.28×	13.27

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	83.1%	86.5%	65.8%	1.31×	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	73.6%	71.1%	91.8%	0.77×	1.41
Over 1.5 in 1st half	53.1%	56.5%	29.3%	1.93×	1.77
Under 1.5 in 1st half	46.9%	43.5%	70.7%	0.62×	2.30
Over 2.5 in 1st half	26.4%	28.9%	8.2%	3.54×	3.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	16.9%	13.5%	34.2%	0.40×	7.39

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	82.9%	77.8%	1.07×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	79.9%	82.8%	0.96×	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.3%	53.0%	42.9%	1.24×	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.7%	47.0%	57.1%	0.82×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	20.1%	17.2%	1.17×	4.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	17.1%	22.2%	0.77×	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to score in both halves	72.6%	74.3%	78.7%	0.94×	1.35
Frosinone not to score in both halves	60.6%	63.3%	76.1%	0.83×	1.58
Frosinone to score in both halves	39.4%	36.7%	23.9%	1.54×	2.73
Venezia to score in both halves	27.4%	25.7%	21.3%	1.21×	3.89

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	67.3%	59.5%	48.2%	1.23×	1.68
Only Frosinone scores	19.1%	16.1%	22.7%	0.71×	6.20
Only Venezia scores	10.7%	10.9%	21.0%	0.52×	9.15
Neither team scores	3.0%	4.6%	8.3%	0.55×	21.76

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	18.9%	17.5%	13.1%	1.33×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	18.5%	17.5%	25.0%	0.70×	5.73
6 or more goals	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	4.30×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	13.2%	12.1%	8.4%	1.43×	8.29
Exactly 1 goals	10.6%	12.1%	19.9%	0.61×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	3.0%	4.4%	8.3%	0.53×	22.63

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.3%	50.9%	42.9%	1.19×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.8%	33.8%	35.1%	0.96×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	17.9%	16.9%	22.2%	0.76×	5.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win both halves	93.0%	94.0%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Frosinone not to win both halves	84.2%	84.3%	90.2%	0.93×	1.19
Frosinone to win both halves	15.8%	15.7%	9.8%	1.60×	6.37
Venezia to win both halves	7.0%	6.0%	8.7%	0.69×	16.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Frosinone to win either half	64.6%	65.4%	52.3%	1.25×	1.53
Venezia to win neither half	53.0%	54.8%	51.7%	1.06×	1.83
Venezia to win either half	47.0%	45.2%	48.3%	0.94×	2.21
Frosinone to win neither half	35.4%	34.6%	47.7%	0.72×	2.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win to nil	89.3%	88.2%	79.0%	1.12×	1.13
Frosinone not to win to nil	81.0%	83.0%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Frosinone to win to nil	19.1%	17.0%	22.7%	0.75×	5.87
Venezia to win to nil	10.7%	11.8%	21.0%	0.56×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.7%	24.1%	26.7%	0.91×	4.14
Frosinone by 1	20.9%	24.1%	22.2%	1.09×	4.14
Venezia by 1	15.9%	16.9%	20.0%	0.85×	5.90
Frosinone by 2	14.7%	11.8%	9.7%	1.22×	8.46
Frosinone by 3+	13.3%	11.8%	7.7%	1.54×	8.46
Venezia by 2	8.5%	7.2%	8.5%	0.85×	13.80
Venezia by 3+	5.1%	7.2%	5.9%	1.23×	13.81

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Frosinone 1.79 xGVenezia 2.44 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Frosinone attacking right Venezia attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
1'	Frosinone	Giacomo Calo	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
12'	Venezia	Albion Rrahmani	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Simon Sohm
13'	Venezia	Redouane Halal	0.06	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Kike Pérez
20'	Frosinone	Antonio Raimondo	0.26	Open Play	—	Goal	Anthony Oyono
25'	Frosinone	Antonio Raimondo	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Giacomo Calo
30'	Venezia	Akor Adams	0.13	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Antoine Hainaut
31'	Frosinone	Antonio Raimondo	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Gabriele Bracaglia
35'	Venezia	Gianluca Busio	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Joël Schingtienne
38'	Frosinone	Antonio Raimondo	0.76	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Patrizio Masini
45'	Venezia	John Yeboah	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Akor Adams
46'	Venezia	Gianluca Busio	0.05	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
47'	Venezia	Richie Sagrado	0.08	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Antoine Hainaut
49'	Venezia	John Yeboah	0.31	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Kike Pérez
53'	Venezia	John Yeboah	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Gianluca Busio
54'	Venezia	Richie Sagrado	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Kike Pérez
58'	Venezia	Akor Adams	0.30	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	—
65'	Frosinone	Farès Ghedjemis	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Gabriele Bracaglia
65'	Venezia	John Yeboah	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Gianluca Busio
72'	Frosinone	Farès Ghedjemis	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Giorgi Kvernadze
73'	Venezia	Richie Sagrado	0.91	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Antoine Hainaut
77'	Frosinone	Anthony Oyono	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	Giacomo Calo
79'	Venezia	Antoine Hainaut	0.29	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	John Yeboah
81'	Frosinone	Gabriele Calvani	0.06	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Giacomo Calo
82'	Frosinone	Giorgi Kvernadze	0.36	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
91'	Frosinone	Giorgi Kvernadze	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Gabriele Bracaglia
91'	Frosinone	Matteo Cichella	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
93'	Venezia	Matías Moreno	0.12	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Kike Pérez

Players

Venezia

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Antoine Hainaut DMR	90	0	1	1	3	0.29	1.12	1.32
Gianluca Busio MC	90	0	1	2	2	0.06	0.13	1.05
Redouane Halal DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.03
Joël Schingtienne DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.01
Kike Pérez MC	90	0	0	0	4	0.00	0.50	0.34
Filip Stankovic GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.11
Ridgeciano Haps DML	79	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.03
Richie Sagrado Sub	75	1	0	3	0	1.00	0.00	0.93
Akor Adams FW	74	0	0	2	1	0.43	0.01	0.45
Albion Rrahmani FW	50	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.02
Simon Sohm MC	50	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.02
John Yeboah Sub	40	1	0	4	1	0.45	0.29	0.74
Toni Fernández Sub	40	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Lion Lauberbach Sub	16	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Armel Bella Kotchap DC	15	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Matías Moreno Sub	11	0	0	1	0	0.12	0.00	0.00

Frosinone

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Giorgi Kvernadze AML	90	1	0	2	1	0.42	0.05	0.85
Gabriele Calvani DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.02
Giacomo Calo DMC	90	0	0	1	3	0.05	0.11	0.44
Anthony Oyono DR	90	0	1	1	1	0.02	0.26	0.69
Lorenzo Palmisani GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Patrizio Masini DMC	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.76	0.83
Gabriele Bracaglia DL	90	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.16	0.99
Antonio Raimondo FW	83	2	0	4	0	1.10	0.00	1.10
Giorgio Cittadini DC	83	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.12
Romano Schmid AMC	61	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.30
Seydou Fini AMR	61	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Farès Ghedjemis Sub	29	0	0	2	0	0.12	0.00	0.12
Matteo Cichella Sub	29	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.22
Daniel Bîrligea Sub	7	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Ilario Monterisi Sub	7	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Wisdom Amey Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

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