Fulham v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.32 – -0.91
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
36.8%
Draw
30.4%
Aston Villa win
32.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLLLDDLWW last 10
scored 11
from 15.8 xG
conceded 11
from 14.0 xG
Aston Villa are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLDLWDWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.5 xG
conceded 15
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.46–1.36 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.32 xGAston Villa 0.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 7' |
 Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 9' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 10' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | John McGinn |
| 10' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 24' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 31' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 33' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 34' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 36' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.20 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 42' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 59' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 64' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sander Berge |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 71' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 82' |
Aston Villa |
Tammy Abraham | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 85' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Fulham |
Oscar Bobb | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joachim Andersen |
| 87' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua King |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 0.40 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Ryan Sessegnon DL | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Samuel Chukwueze AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Oscar Bobb Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joshua King Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Antonee Robinson Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.68 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lamare Bogarde DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| John McGinn AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Douglas Luiz Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |