Fulham v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 14
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.33 – 0.45
Goals − xG
-1.63 – +1.56
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
39.1%
Draw
23.4%
Aston Villa win
37.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.58 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 2.63 xGAston Villa 1.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Fulham |
Andreas Pereira | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 2' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adama Traoré |
| 4' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bernd Leno |
| 8' |
 Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jacob Ramsey |
| 10' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.53 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andreas Pereira |
| 12' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 17' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 21' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amadou Onana |
| 26' |
Fulham |
Andreas Pereira | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 41' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 48' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adama Traoré |
| 57' |
Aston Villa |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Youri Tielemans |
| 58' |
Aston Villa |
Pau Torres | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 62' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Aston Villa |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 68' |
Fulham |
Issa Diop | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 75' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 81' |
Fulham |
Issa Diop | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Reiss Nelson |
| 85' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Reiss Nelson |
| 90' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 91' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 98' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tom Cairney |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.69 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Alex Iwobi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.18 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.64 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Andreas Pereira DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.53 | 0.11 |
| Adama Traoré AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Issa Diop Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Reiss Nelson Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.60 |
| Harry Wilson Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.84 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.03 | 0.86 |
| Jacob Ramsey AML | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Jhon Durán Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| John McGinn Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |