Fulham v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-1.24 – +0.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
35.4%
Draw
27.7%
Bournemouth win
36.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.52–1.66 | 1-1 11% | 62% | 63% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.24 xGBournemouth 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 10' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 11' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 28' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 38' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Cairney |
| 42' |
Fulham |
Joachim Andersen | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Harry Wilson |
| 46' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Cairney |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Adrien Truffert | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Hill |
| 48' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Calvin Bassey |
| 50' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Marcus Tavernier |
| 52' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 52' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adam Smith |
| 56' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rayan |
| 57' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 63' |
Fulham |
Oscar Bobb | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 68' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Calvin Bassey |
| 69' |
Fulham |
Oscar Bobb | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
Adrien Truffert | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Tóth |
| 94' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Oscar Bobb |
| 94' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.19 | 0.80 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan AMR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| Evanilson FW | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| David Brooks Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Tóth Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Muniz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Tom Cairney DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.69 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.58 |
| Samuel Chukwueze AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Issa Diop Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Oscar Bobb Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Kevin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Joshua King Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonah Kusi-Asare Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |