Fulham v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.87 – -1.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
37.4%
Draw
28.0%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
34.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 16.5 xG
conceded 12
from 14.6 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWLDWWWW last 10
scored 26
from 21.9 xG
conceded 9
from 13.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–1.41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.40 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.13 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 2.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Fulham |
Kevin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Fulham |
Jorge Cuenca | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 20' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 23' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 25' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin |
| 27' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Olivier Boscagli |
| 29' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Dunk |
| 34' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 49' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 52' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 54' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 66' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Joachim Andersen |
| 73' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 78' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 78' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 83' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 91' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaoru Mitoma FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.61 | 1.42 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 1.34 |
| Yasin Ayari MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.46 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 1.34 |
| Pascal Groß MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.02 | 0.69 | 1.19 |
| Olivier Boscagli DL | 88 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.76 |
| Carlos Baleba MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Diego Gómez FWR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| James Milner Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxim De Cuyper Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.08 | 0.71 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| Jorge Cuenca DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kevin AML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Samuel Chukwueze Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Ryan Sessegnon Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Joshua King Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |