Fulham v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 7 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 11
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.58
Goals − xG
+0.23 – +0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
32.7%
Draw
27.6%
Crystal Palace win
39.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.31 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 0.77 xGCrystal Palace 1.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 8' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 16' |
 Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 19' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Adam Wharton |
| 21' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sander Berge |
| 28' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Crystal Palace |
Nathaniel Clyne | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 37' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Raúl Jiménez |
| 47' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 48' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 51' |
Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Clyne |
| 58' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joachim Andersen |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 81' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Tete |
| 84' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 85' |
Crystal Palace |
Christantus Uche | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 86' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Goal | Yeremi Pino |
| 86' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 93' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothy Castagne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| Samuel Chukwueze AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Kevin Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Joshua King Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sasa Lukic Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Yeremi Pino AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.67 | 0.96 |
| Daichi Kamada MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.90 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 0.61 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.74 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Nathaniel Clyne DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Eddie Nketiah AMC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Christantus Uche Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Jaydee Canvot Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |