Fulham v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Fulham

2–3

2.88 – 2.36 xG

Crystal Palace

Shots

25 – 10

On target

6 – 5

Shots in box

22 – 7

xG per shot

0.12 – 0.25

Set-piece xG

0.33 – 0.03

Goals − xG

-0.90 – +0.47

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Fulham win

40.8%

Draw

25.2%

Crystal Palace win

34.0%

412534

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDWLLDWLLL last 10 scored 8 from 13.9 xG conceded 14 from 18.6 xG

Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLLDLDLLLW last 10 scored 10 from 15.7 xG conceded 23 from 20.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	412534	1.48–1.33	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	512722	1.62–1.00	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-goals	482924	1.47–0.97	1-1 14%	44%	49%	Home ✗
dc-xg	382537	1.39–1.37	1-1 12%	52%	56%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	382537	1.39–1.37	1-1 12%	52%	56%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to win	39.8%	34.7%	43.3%	0.80×	2.88
Crystal Palace to win	36.2%	34.5%	32.4%	1.07×	2.90
Draw	24.0%	25.1%	24.4%	1.03×	3.98

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham & both teams score	22.0%	21.6%	23.0%	0.94×	4.64
Crystal Palace & both teams score	20.1%	21.5%	15.6%	1.38×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.7%	19.8%	0.95×	5.34
Fulham & not both score	17.9%	18.7%	20.4%	0.92×	5.35
Crystal Palace & not both score	16.1%	18.7%	16.9%	1.11×	5.35
Draw & not both score	4.7%	4.6%	4.7%	0.97×	21.72

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham & over 1.5	32.5%	32.1%	36.9%	0.87×	3.11
Crystal Palace & over 1.5	29.2%	27.3%	25.5%	1.07×	3.66
Fulham & over 2.5	26.7%	27.3%	30.4%	0.90×	3.66
Fulham & under 3.5	24.8%	21.8%	26.9%	0.81×	4.59
Crystal Palace & over 2.5	24.0%	21.8%	20.1%	1.09×	4.60
Crystal Palace & under 3.5	22.9%	21.8%	21.8%	1.00×	4.60
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.4%	19.8%	0.93×	5.43
Draw & under 2.5	15.6%	18.4%	16.1%	1.14×	5.44
Draw & under 3.5	15.6%	18.4%	16.1%	1.14×	5.44
Fulham & over 3.5	15.0%	18.4%	16.5%	1.11×	5.44
Crystal Palace & over 3.5	13.3%	13.0%	10.7%	1.21×	7.72
Fulham & under 2.5	13.1%	13.0%	13.0%	1.00×	7.72
Crystal Palace & under 2.5	12.2%	13.0%	12.4%	1.05×	7.72
Draw & over 2.5	8.4%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.52
Draw & over 3.5	8.4%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.52
Fulham & under 1.5	7.4%	7.4%	6.5%	1.15×	13.52
Crystal Palace & under 1.5	7.0%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.52
Draw & under 1.5	4.7%	4.1%	4.7%	0.86×	24.69

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (1UP)	57.9%	56.7%	62.3%	0.91×	1.76
Crystal Palace (1UP)	54.9%	52.1%	51.3%	1.02×	1.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (2UP)	39.8%	36.9%	45.1%	0.82×	2.71
Crystal Palace (2UP)	36.2%	36.7%	34.5%	1.06×	2.73

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to win 2nd half	34.3%	34.5%	36.4%	0.95×	2.90
2nd half drawn	33.1%	34.5%	30.6%	1.13×	2.90
Crystal Palace to win 2nd half	32.5%	34.5%	33.0%	1.04×	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (+2.5)	92.1%	93.4%	89.2%	1.05×	1.07
Crystal Palace (+1.5)	80.3%	85.1%	75.8%	1.12×	1.18
Fulham (+0.5)	63.8%	63.6%	67.6%	0.94×	1.57
Crystal Palace (+0.5)	60.2%	63.5%	56.7%	1.12×	1.58
Fulham (-0.5)	39.8%	36.5%	43.3%	0.84×	2.74
Crystal Palace (-0.5)	36.2%	36.4%	32.4%	1.12×	2.75
Fulham (-1.5)	19.7%	14.9%	24.2%	0.62×	6.71
Fulham (-2.5)	7.9%	6.6%	10.8%	0.61×	15.20

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede	79.3%	75.5%	78.5%	0.96×	1.32
Crystal Palace clean sheet	20.7%	24.5%	21.5%	1.14×	4.08

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 1st half	51.3%	50.0%	48.5%	1.03×	2.00
Crystal Palace to concede in 1st half	48.7%	50.0%	51.5%	0.97×	2.00

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 6.5 corners	83.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Crystal Palace over 2.5 corners	74.7%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Crystal Palace under 5.5 corners	73.2%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Crystal Palace under 4.5 corners	59.3%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Crystal Palace over 3.5 corners	57.5%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Crystal Palace under 3.5 corners	42.5%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners	40.7%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Crystal Palace over 5.5 corners	26.8%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Crystal Palace under 2.5 corners	25.3%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Crystal Palace over 6.5 corners	16.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 3.5 goals	93.6%	94.4%	94.5%	1.00×	1.06
Crystal Palace under 2.5 goals	81.1%	83.4%	84.9%	0.98×	1.20
Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals	77.5%	76.1%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals	56.1%	60.5%	60.6%	1.00×	1.65
Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals	43.9%	39.5%	39.4%	1.00×	2.53
Crystal Palace under 0.5 goals	22.5%	23.9%	25.0%	0.95×	4.19
Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals	18.9%	16.6%	15.1%	1.10×	6.01
Crystal Palace over 3.5 goals	6.4%	5.6%	5.5%	1.01×	17.98

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 1st half	87.2%	89.6%	89.2%	1.00×	1.12
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 1st half	53.9%	56.0%	59.5%	0.94×	1.79
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 1st half	46.1%	44.0%	40.5%	1.09×	2.27
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 1st half	12.8%	10.4%	10.8%	0.97×	9.62

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (away no bet)	62.4%	59.8%	63.9%	0.94×	1.67
Draw (away no bet)	37.6%	40.2%	36.1%	1.11×	2.49

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace even goals	52.5%	52.5%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Crystal Palace odd goals	47.5%	47.5%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.5%	83.2%	80.0%	1.04×	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.5%	16.8%	20.0%	0.84×	5.94

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.3%	66.3%	70.3%	0.94×	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.7%	33.7%	29.7%	1.13×	2.97

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.5%	59.0%	61.6%	0.96×	1.70
Fulham to score 2+ in a row	36.5%	35.3%	39.2%	0.90×	2.83
Crystal Palace to score 2+ in a row	33.7%	27.9%	29.9%	0.93×	3.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.1%	19.1%	26.4%	0.72×	5.24
Fulham to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	11.5%	16.6%	0.69×	8.68
Crystal Palace to score 3+ in a row	10.9%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.71

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham corners (+3.5)	90.9%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Fulham corners (+2.5)	85.5%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Fulham corners (+1.5)	78.1%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Crystal Palace corners (+3.5)	73.2%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Crystal Palace corners (+2.5)	63.6%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Crystal Palace corners (+1.5)	52.8%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Fulham corners (-1.5)	47.2%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Fulham corners (-2.5)	36.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Fulham corners (-3.5)	26.8%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Crystal Palace corners (-1.5)	21.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Crystal Palace corners (-2.5)	14.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.31
Crystal Palace corners (-3.5)	9.1%	11.4%	—	—	8.81

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.5%	35.2%	—	—	2.84
9-11 corners	30.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
12+ corners	29.8%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	70.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	60.9%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Over 8.5 corners	60.5%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 9.5 corners	50.5%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Over 9.5 corners	49.5%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Under 8.5 corners	39.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 10.5 corners	39.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 11.5 corners	29.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	28.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	21.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.0%	12.7%	11.4%	1.11×	7.88
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.45
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	7.0%	1.07×	13.45
1-0	7.4%	7.4%	6.5%	1.15×	13.45
0-1	7.0%	7.4%	7.0%	1.07×	13.45
2-2	6.4%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.46
2-0	5.8%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.46
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	5.5%	1.35×	13.46
0-0	4.7%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.56
3-1	4.5%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.56
1-3	4.1%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.58
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.60
Any other score	4.0%	1.7%	4.2%	0.40×	58.58
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.62
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.61
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.61
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.17×	58.66
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.67
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.20×	58.65
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.67
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	2.2%	0.76×	58.65
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.66
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.67
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.30×	58.69
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.80×	58.68
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.95×	58.70

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham leading at HT (DNB)	52.6%	55.8%	59.8%	0.93×	1.79
Crystal Palace leading at HT (DNB)	47.4%	44.2%	40.2%	1.10×	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham or Crystal Palace (12)	76.0%	74.9%	75.6%	0.99×	1.34
Fulham or draw (1X)	63.8%	65.5%	67.6%	0.97×	1.53
Crystal Palace or draw (X2)	60.2%	65.3%	56.7%	1.15×	1.53

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham or draw at HT	71.7%	74.8%	75.6%	0.99×	1.34
Crystal Palace or draw at HT	68.6%	67.1%	63.7%	1.05×	1.49
Fulham or Crystal Palace at HT	59.7%	56.5%	60.7%	0.93×	1.77

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham or draw (1UP)	63.8%	71.6%	74.3%	0.96×	1.40
Crystal Palace or draw (1UP)	60.2%	71.4%	65.0%	1.10×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham or draw in 2nd half	67.5%	65.5%	67.0%	0.98×	1.53
Fulham or Crystal Palace in 2nd half	66.9%	65.5%	69.4%	0.94×	1.53
Crystal Palace or draw in 2nd half	65.7%	65.5%	63.6%	1.03×	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.1%	61.9%	56.6%	1.09×	1.62
Neither half drawn	39.9%	38.1%	43.4%	0.88×	2.62

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (DNB)	52.4%	51.1%	57.2%	0.89×	1.96
Crystal Palace (DNB)	47.6%	48.9%	42.8%	1.14×	2.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to score first	49.0%	45.2%	52.2%	0.87×	2.21
Crystal Palace to score first	46.4%	45.0%	43.2%	1.04×	2.22
No goal scored	4.7%	5.1%	4.7%	1.08×	19.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.4%	58.3%	58.2%	1.00×	1.71
Not both teams to score	38.6%	41.7%	41.8%	1.00×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.4%	49.4%	46.8%	1.05×	2.03
Not both score & under 2.5	30.0%	34.1%	29.9%	1.14×	2.93
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	11.9%	11.4%	1.04×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.7%	12.0%	0.73×	11.52

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.5%	81.8%	82.3%	0.99×	1.22
Both teams to score 2+	20.5%	18.2%	17.7%	1.03×	5.49

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.4%	68.0%	68.8%	0.99×	1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.6%	32.0%	31.2%	1.02×	3.13

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.7%	56.5%	55.9%	1.01×	1.77
Both score 2nd half only	26.9%	25.9%	24.6%	1.05×	3.86
Both score 1st half only	14.7%	10.3%	12.9%	0.80×	9.66
Both score in both halves	7.8%	6.5%	6.7%	0.97×	15.36

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.5%	82.0%	80.5%	1.02×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	22.5%	18.0%	19.5%	0.92×	5.55

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.1%	59.6%	62.1%	0.96×	1.68
A half without a goal	39.9%	40.4%	37.9%	1.07×	2.47

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.3%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
4-6 goals	33.0%	31.2%	32.7%	0.95×	3.20
0-1 goals	19.0%	21.6%	18.0%	1.20×	4.64
7+ goals	3.7%	1.9%	2.8%	0.66×	53.03

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score exactly 1	33.6%	34.0%	35.6%	0.95×	2.95
Crystal Palace to score exactly 2	25.0%	28.4%	24.4%	1.16×	3.53
Crystal Palace to score exactly 0	22.5%	22.0%	25.0%	0.88×	4.54
Crystal Palace to score 3+	18.9%	19.0%	15.1%	1.26×	5.26

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to score exactly 1	32.6%	33.5%	29.6%	1.13×	2.99
Fulham to score exactly 2	25.7%	26.9%	26.0%	1.04×	3.72
Fulham to score 3+	21.0%	24.1%	23.1%	1.05×	4.14
Fulham to score exactly 0	20.7%	24.1%	21.5%	1.12×	4.14

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.3%	43.5%	39.3%	1.11×	2.30
Fulham leading at HT	31.4%	32.9%	36.3%	0.91×	3.04
Crystal Palace leading at HT	28.3%	25.2%	24.4%	1.03×	3.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham -1: 2	60.2%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Fulham -1: X	20.1%	23.8%	—	—	4.20
Fulham -1: 1	19.7%	16.3%	—	—	6.14

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:1)	60.2%	63.5%	56.7%	1.12×	1.58
Draw (0:1)	20.1%	23.3%	19.2%	1.22×	4.28
Fulham (0:1)	19.7%	15.4%	24.2%	0.64×	6.49

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:2)	80.3%	84.7%	75.8%	1.12×	1.18
Draw (0:2)	11.9%	9.9%	13.4%	0.74×	10.06
Fulham (0:2)	7.9%	6.3%	10.8%	0.58×	15.79

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:3)	92.1%	93.4%	89.2%	1.05×	1.07
Draw (0:3)	5.3%	5.4%	7.6%	0.71×	18.52
Fulham (0:3)	2.6%	1.8%	3.4%	0.54×	54.87

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:4)	97.4%	98.4%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.1%	2.1%	0.52×	92.64
Fulham (0:4)	0.7%	1.1%	1.4%	0.78×	93.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (1:0)	63.8%	65.6%	67.6%	0.97×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	19.0%	17.1%	16.6%	1.03×	5.85
Crystal Palace (1:0)	17.2%	17.0%	15.8%	1.08×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (2:0)	82.8%	83.8%	84.2%	1.00×	1.19
Draw (2:0)	10.6%	11.9%	9.3%	1.28×	8.40
Crystal Palace (2:0)	6.5%	6.0%	6.6%	0.90×	16.79

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.9%	47.4%	49.9%	0.95×	2.11
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.7%	25.6%	1.04×	3.75
Halves equal	23.3%	24.9%	24.6%	1.01×	4.02

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to concede	77.5%	75.8%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Fulham clean sheet	22.5%	24.2%	25.0%	0.97×	4.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham clean sheet in 1st half	53.9%	56.0%	59.5%	0.94×	1.79
Fulham to concede in 1st half	46.1%	44.0%	40.5%	1.09×	2.27

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham over 2.5 corners	86.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Fulham over 3.5 corners	74.6%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Fulham under 6.5 corners	66.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Fulham over 4.5 corners	60.4%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Fulham under 5.5 corners	54.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Fulham over 5.5 corners	46.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Fulham under 4.5 corners	39.6%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Fulham over 6.5 corners	33.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Fulham under 3.5 corners	25.4%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Fulham under 2.5 corners	13.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 3.5 goals	92.5%	93.3%	91.6%	1.02×	1.07
Fulham over 0.5 goals	79.3%	76.8%	78.5%	0.98×	1.30
Fulham under 2.5 goals	79.0%	76.8%	76.9%	1.00×	1.30
Fulham under 1.5 goals	53.4%	52.5%	51.0%	1.03×	1.91
Fulham over 1.5 goals	46.6%	47.5%	49.0%	0.97×	2.11
Fulham over 2.5 goals	21.0%	23.2%	23.1%	1.00×	4.32
Fulham under 0.5 goals	20.7%	23.2%	21.5%	1.08×	4.32
Fulham over 3.5 goals	7.5%	6.7%	8.4%	0.79×	14.95

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 1.5 in 1st half	85.5%	90.0%	84.4%	1.07×	1.11
Fulham over 0.5 in 1st half	48.7%	50.2%	51.5%	0.97×	1.99
Fulham under 0.5 in 1st half	51.3%	49.8%	48.5%	1.03×	2.01
Fulham over 1.5 in 1st half	14.5%	10.0%	15.6%	0.64×	10.01

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (home no bet)	60.1%	60.1%	57.0%	1.06×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	39.9%	39.9%	43.0%	0.93×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham even goals	52.2%	52.1%	53.6%	0.97×	1.92
Fulham odd goals	47.8%	47.9%	46.4%	1.03×	2.09

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.6%	28.5%	27.5%	1.03×	3.51
HT 1-0	18.5%	18.8%	21.9%	0.86×	5.32
HT 0-1	17.1%	18.8%	14.9%	1.26×	5.32
HT 1-1	11.4%	10.9%	10.9%	0.99×	9.21
HT 2-0	6.2%	6.9%	8.2%	0.85×	14.45
Any other HT score	5.5%	6.9%	5.3%	1.30×	14.46
HT 0-2	5.3%	6.9%	4.5%	1.54×	14.47
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.2%	3.7%	0.59×	45.80
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.2%	2.8%	0.79×	45.83
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.2%	1.0%	2.10×	46.02

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham at HT / Fulham at FT	23.2%	22.9%	26.4%	0.87×	4.38
Crystal Palace at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	20.4%	22.8%	17.0%	1.34×	4.39
Draw at HT / Fulham at FT	13.8%	12.8%	14.0%	0.91×	7.80
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.3%	12.8%	13.3%	0.96×	7.80
Draw at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	13.1%	12.8%	12.1%	1.06×	7.80
Fulham at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	6.6%	0.91×	16.60
Crystal Palace at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	4.6%	1.30×	16.60
Fulham at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	2.7%	3.3%	3.4%	0.96×	30.11
Crystal Palace at HT / Fulham at FT	2.7%	3.3%	3.0%	1.10×	30.11

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to score last	49.0%	46.5%	50.3%	0.92×	2.15
Crystal Palace to score last	46.4%	46.4%	45.0%	1.03×	2.16
No goal scored	4.7%	5.1%	4.7%	1.08×	19.51

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.3%	94.8%	95.3%	1.00×	1.06
Fulham to lead by 1 at any time	57.9%	54.2%	62.3%	0.87×	1.85
Crystal Palace to lead by 1 at any time	54.9%	50.1%	51.3%	0.98×	2.00
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.9%	50.0%	51.0%	0.98×	2.00
Fulham to lead by 2 at any time	27.0%	24.5%	30.1%	0.81×	4.09
Crystal Palace to lead by 2 at any time	24.3%	19.3%	21.3%	0.91×	5.18
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.0%	14.7%	21.3%	0.69×	6.79
Fulham to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.1%	13.3%	0.76×	9.89
Crystal Palace to lead by 3 at any time	8.7%	6.3%	8.2%	0.77×	15.86

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham most corners	58.3%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
Crystal Palace most corners	31.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	10.6%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	86.6%	88.6%	0.98×	1.16
2-6 goals	77.3%	77.1%	79.3%	0.97×	1.30
1-4 goals	75.8%	77.1%	78.2%	0.99×	1.30
2-5 goals	72.0%	71.9%	75.3%	0.96×	1.39
2-4 goals	61.5%	62.5%	65.0%	0.96×	1.60
1-3 goals	58.6%	56.7%	59.9%	0.95×	1.77
3-6 goals	55.4%	56.6%	55.9%	1.01×	1.77
3-5 goals	50.0%	50.7%	52.0%	0.98×	1.97
2-3 goals	44.3%	42.8%	46.6%	0.92×	2.34
3-4 goals	39.5%	38.1%	41.7%	0.92×	2.62
1-2 goals	36.2%	38.1%	36.7%	1.04×	2.63
4-6 goals	33.0%	33.1%	32.7%	1.01×	3.02
4-5 goals	27.7%	26.2%	28.7%	0.91×	3.82
5-6 goals	15.9%	14.9%	14.4%	1.04×	6.70
7+ goals	3.7%	2.0%	2.8%	0.69×	50.95

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham never behind	40.4%	48.6%	48.7%	1.00×	2.06
Crystal Palace never behind	37.4%	45.1%	37.7%	1.20×	2.22

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.1%	50.7%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Odd number of goals	49.9%	49.3%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.8%	51.9%	53.4%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.2%	48.1%	46.6%	1.03×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	52.8%	51.6%	1.02×	1.89
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	47.2%	48.4%	0.98×	2.12

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.3%	95.9%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Under 5.5 goals	91.0%	92.5%	93.2%	0.99×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.0%	81.4%	82.0%	0.99×	1.23
Under 4.5 goals	80.5%	81.4%	82.9%	0.98×	1.23
Under 3.5 goals	63.3%	61.4%	64.5%	0.95×	1.63
Over 2.5 goals	59.1%	59.6%	58.7%	1.01×	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.9%	40.4%	41.3%	0.98×	2.47
Over 3.5 goals	36.7%	38.6%	35.5%	1.09×	2.59
Over 4.5 goals	19.5%	18.6%	17.1%	1.09×	5.37
Under 1.5 goals	19.0%	18.6%	18.0%	1.03×	5.37
Over 5.5 goals	9.0%	7.5%	6.8%	1.10×	13.39
Under 0.5 goals	4.7%	4.1%	4.7%	0.86×	24.49

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.1%	98.2%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.9%	90.3%	92.4%	0.98×	1.11
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.4%	77.1%	79.0%	0.98×	1.30
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.7%	77.1%	76.5%	1.01×	1.30
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.7%	51.7%	53.8%	0.96×	1.94
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.3%	48.3%	46.2%	1.05×	2.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.3%	22.9%	23.5%	0.98×	4.36
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.6%	22.9%	21.0%	1.09×	4.36
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.1%	9.7%	7.6%	1.28×	10.31
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.9%	1.8%	3.0%	0.62×	54.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.0%	89.4%	87.4%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.4%	70.9%	72.5%	0.98×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.2%	63.4%	64.1%	0.99×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.8%	36.6%	35.9%	1.02×	2.73
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.6%	29.1%	27.5%	1.06×	3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.0%	10.6%	12.6%	0.84×	9.45

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.1%	82.6%	84.9%	0.97×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	77.5%	75.7%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.0%	52.8%	54.4%	0.97×	1.90
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.0%	47.2%	45.6%	1.04×	2.12
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	22.5%	24.3%	0.93×	4.45
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.9%	17.4%	15.1%	1.16×	5.74

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to score in both halves	73.2%	74.6%	76.7%	0.97×	1.34
Fulham not to score in both halves	71.0%	74.5%	68.6%	1.09×	1.34
Fulham to score in both halves	29.0%	25.5%	31.4%	0.81×	3.93
Crystal Palace to score in both halves	26.8%	25.4%	23.3%	1.09×	3.94

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.4%	57.8%	58.2%	0.99×	1.73
Only Fulham scores	17.9%	19.7%	20.4%	0.97×	5.07
Only Crystal Palace scores	16.1%	19.6%	16.9%	1.16×	5.09
Neither team scores	4.7%	4.9%	4.7%	1.02×	20.61

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.5%	23.3%	0.97×	4.44
Exactly 2 goals	21.9%	22.5%	23.4%	0.96×	4.44
Exactly 4 goals	17.1%	18.3%	18.4%	0.99×	5.46
Exactly 1 goals	14.3%	11.7%	13.3%	0.88×	8.57
Exactly 5 goals	10.5%	11.6%	10.4%	1.12×	8.60
6 or more goals	9.0%	7.6%	6.8%	1.12×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	4.7%	4.0%	4.7%	0.84×	25.00

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.0%	50.2%	54.4%	0.92×	1.99
1 goal in 2nd half	30.1%	34.1%	30.6%	1.11×	2.93
No goals in 2nd half	16.9%	17.4%	15.1%	1.16×	5.73

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win both halves	90.8%	94.0%	91.1%	1.03×	1.06
Fulham not to win both halves	89.2%	88.4%	86.4%	1.02×	1.13
Fulham to win both halves	10.8%	11.6%	13.6%	0.85×	8.62
Crystal Palace to win both halves	9.2%	6.0%	8.9%	0.68×	16.64

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to win either half	55.0%	54.5%	59.1%	0.92×	1.83
Crystal Palace to win either half	51.6%	54.4%	48.6%	1.12×	1.84
Crystal Palace to win neither half	48.4%	45.6%	51.4%	0.89×	2.19
Fulham to win neither half	45.0%	45.5%	40.9%	1.11×	2.20

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win to nil	83.9%	81.3%	83.1%	0.98×	1.23
Fulham not to win to nil	82.1%	81.2%	79.6%	1.02×	1.23
Fulham to win to nil	17.9%	18.8%	20.4%	0.92×	5.32
Crystal Palace to win to nil	16.1%	18.7%	16.9%	1.11×	5.34

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.0%	24.9%	24.4%	1.02×	4.02
Fulham by 1	20.1%	24.8%	19.2%	1.29×	4.03
Crystal Palace by 1	19.0%	17.2%	16.6%	1.03×	5.82
Fulham by 2	11.9%	11.0%	13.4%	0.82×	9.12
Crystal Palace by 2	10.6%	10.9%	9.3%	1.18×	9.13
Fulham by 3+	7.9%	6.2%	10.8%	0.57×	16.12
Crystal Palace by 3+	6.5%	6.2%	6.6%	0.93×	16.16

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Fulham 2.90 xGCrystal Palace 2.53 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Fulham attacking right Crystal Palace attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
3'	Fulham	Timothy Castagne	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Joachim Andersen
10'	Fulham	Joshua King	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
17'	Crystal Palace	Chris Richards	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Axel Disasi
19'	Crystal Palace	Anan Khalaili	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Yeremi Pino
21'	Crystal Palace	Quinten Timber	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Tyrick Mitchell
22'	Crystal Palace	Eddie Nketiah	0.53	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Yeremi Pino
22'	Fulham	Alex Iwobi	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Antonee Robinson
23'	Fulham	Antonee Robinson	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Shea Charles
23'	Fulham	Oscar Bobb	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Joshua King
26'	Fulham	César Palacios	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Gonzalo García
27'	Fulham	Timothy Castagne	0.06	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Oscar Bobb
30'	Fulham	Gonzalo García	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Antonee Robinson
32'	Fulham	Timothy Castagne	0.49	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Oscar Bobb
34'	Crystal Palace	Tyrick Mitchell	0.40	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Eddie Nketiah
37'	Fulham	Antonee Robinson	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Shea Charles
37'	Fulham	Gonzalo García	0.04	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Timothy Castagne
41'	Fulham	César Palacios	0.54	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
44'	Fulham	Gonzalo García	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	César Palacios
48'	Fulham	César Palacios	0.14	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
48'	Fulham	Gonzalo García	0.08	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Oscar Bobb
48'	Fulham	Joshua King	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Shea Charles
53'	Crystal Palace	Tyrick Mitchell	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Daichi Kamada
53'	Crystal Palace	Tyrick Mitchell	0.35	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
53'	Crystal Palace	Yeremi Pino	0.41	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
55'	Fulham	César Palacios	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
59'	Fulham	Oscar Bobb	0.16	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Timothy Castagne
60'	Fulham	César Palacios	0.06	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Joachim Andersen
66'	Fulham	Gonzalo García	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Oscar Bobb
70'	Fulham	Oscar Bobb	0.13	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Alex Iwobi
76'	Crystal Palace	Anan Khalaili	0.35	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Yeremi Pino
76'	Crystal Palace	Ben Chilwell	0.39	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Daichi Kamada
85'	Fulham	Rodrigo Muniz	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Ryan Sessegnon
85'	Fulham	Ryan Sessegnon	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
87'	Fulham	Rodrigo Muniz	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Joshua King
92'	Fulham	Hugo Larsson	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Rodrigo Muniz

Players

Fulham

Player	Min	G	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Timothy Castagne DR	90	0	3	2	0.58	0.20	1.57
Gonzalo García FW	90	0	5	1	0.30	0.10	0.90
Joshua King AMC	90	1	2	2	0.22	0.21	0.95
Joachim Andersen DC	90	0	0	2	0.00	0.10	0.84
Calvin Bassey DC	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.31
Bernd Leno GK	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.55
Alex Iwobi DMC	87	0	1	1	0.05	0.13	0.40
Oscar Bobb AMR	83	0	3	4	0.39	0.75	1.06
Antonee Robinson DL	83	0	2	2	0.08	0.07	1.27
Shea Charles DMC	83	0	0	3	0.00	0.18	0.50
César Palacios AML	66	1	5	1	0.91	0.03	0.82
Sander Berge Sub	24	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.45
Hugo Larsson Sub	7	0	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.29
Ryan Sessegnon Sub	7	0	1	1	0.07	0.09	0.16
Emile Smith-Rowe Sub	7	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.20
Rodrigo Muniz Sub	3	0	2	1	0.20	0.09	0.29

Crystal Palace

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Yeremi Pino AMC	90	0	0	1	3	0.41	0.89	1.66
Anan Khalaili DMR	90	0	0	2	0	0.36	0.00	0.89
Chris Richards DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.40
Axel Disasi DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.36
Dean Henderson GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.36
Jaydee Canvot DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.36
Adam Wharton MC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.88
Daichi Kamada AMC	90	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.43	0.95
Tyrick Mitchell DML	78	2	0	3	1	0.79	0.02	0.80
Quinten Timber MC	78	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.02
Eddie Nketiah FW	50	0	1	1	1	0.53	0.40	0.53
Jørgen Strand Larsen Sub	40	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.35
Ben Chilwell Sub	12	1	0	1	0	0.39	0.00	0.39
Will Hughes Sub	12	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Darío Osorio Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Óscar Mingueza Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

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