Fulham v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 17
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 12
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.60 – 0.89
Goals − xG
-1.20 – +0.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
43.8%
Draw
30.3%
Everton win
26.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–1.10 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 2.20 xGEverton 1.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Everton |
Jake O'Brien | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | James Garner |
| 7' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 17' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 19' |
Fulham |
Joachim Andersen | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 19' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 24' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 25' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 28' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 29' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 32' |
Everton |
Harrison Armstrong | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 40' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harrison Armstrong |
| 41' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 43' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 44' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 46' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 50' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 58' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 62' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 66' |
Everton |
Harrison Armstrong | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 66' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 74' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 79' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 80' |
Everton |
Tyrique George | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 82' |
Fulham |
Bernd Leno | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 86' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Tete |
| 91' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joachim Andersen |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.64 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.76 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.79 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 86 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
| Harrison Armstrong AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Beto Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Ryan Sessegnon DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| Jorge Cuenca DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.44 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.44 | 0.84 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.04 | 1.05 |
| Samuel Chukwueze AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.35 | 0.92 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kevin Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Oscar Bobb Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Tete Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |