Fulham v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.60 – 0.96
Goals − xG
-0.66 – -0.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
44.2%
Draw
25.5%
Manchester United win
30.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.21 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.66 xGManchester United 1.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 1' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Mason Mount |
| 2' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 9' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 12' |
 Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 13' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Altay Bayindir |
| 15' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 16' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 37' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 40' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 45' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.15 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joachim Andersen |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mason Mount |
| 57' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 57' |
Manchester United |
Leny Yoro | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 60' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Tete |
| 62' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Muniz |
| 68' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alex Iwobi |
| 75' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leny Yoro |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 92' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonee Robinson |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Iwobi AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.39 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Muniz FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Joshua King AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Timothy Castagne AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Ryan Sessegnon DL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| Harry Wilson Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonee Robinson Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.62 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Raúl Jiménez Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.02 | 0.58 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Altay Bayindir GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Mount AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| Casemiro MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Amad Diallo Traore DMR | 54 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Diogo Dalot Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Benjamin Sesko Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Ugarte Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Maguire Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayden Heaven Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |