Fulham v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Fulham

15:30 UTC

Manchester United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 296h before kick-off

Fulham win

27.9%

model 27.7%

Draw

22.4%

model 23.6%

Manchester United win

49.8%

model 48.8%

282250

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.0%
1-2 9.5%
0-1 8.7%
0-2 7.6%
2-1 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.4%	Under 2.5	42.6%
BTTS yes	58.8%	BTTS no	41.2%
Fulham 1+	71.4%	Fulham 2+	35.6%
Manchester United 1+	82.4%	Manchester United 2+	51.8%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

95/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Manchester United (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 43%

61.7% fair odds 1.62

strong signal · 3446 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 82%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 6854 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1707 Elo against 1535.
Manchester United have created 2.09 xG a match over their last five while Fulham have allowed 1.86.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Manchester United average 1.19 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester United have an estimated 49.8% win probability, against 27.9% for Fulham and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for Fulham and 1.74 for Manchester United.

Why Fulham

Fulham have created 1.39 xG a match over their last five while Manchester United have allowed 1.47. At home Fulham average 1.70 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Manchester United can win

Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1707 Elo against 1535. Manchester United have created 2.09 xG a match over their last five while Fulham have allowed 1.86. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Manchester United average 1.19 xG a match.

Key players

Fulham's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonzalo García (0.46), Raúl Jiménez (0.36), Harry Wilson (0.27). Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.74), Bryan Mbeumo (0.51), Matheus Cunha (0.36).

Availability

2 of Fulham's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Fulham's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fulham: 60% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester United: 56% possession, 21.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Manchester United are the model's most likely outcome at 49.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDWLLDWLLL last 10 scored 8 from 13.9 xG conceded 14 from 18.6 xG

Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWWDWWLWD last 10 scored 20 from 20.9 xG conceded 13 from 14.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	282449	1.25–1.74	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	302743	1.27–1.54	1-1 13%	53%	58%
dc-xg	322544	1.32–1.58	1-1 11%	55%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win	48.7%	47.8%	32.3%	1.48×	2.09
Fulham to win	27.7%	27.3%	43.1%	0.63×	3.66
Draw	23.6%	23.5%	24.7%	0.95×	4.26

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & both teams score	25.2%	26.5%	15.5%	1.70×	3.78
Manchester United & not both score	23.5%	21.5%	16.8%	1.28×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.2%	20.0%	0.91×	5.49
Fulham & both teams score	15.1%	18.2%	22.9%	0.80×	5.49
Fulham & not both score	12.6%	12.6%	20.3%	0.62×	7.91
Draw & not both score	5.0%	7.7%	4.9%	1.58×	13.05

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & over 1.5	40.0%	42.8%	25.4%	1.68×	2.34
Manchester United & over 2.5	32.4%	31.8%	20.0%	1.59×	3.15
Manchester United & under 3.5	30.2%	31.8%	21.7%	1.47×	3.15
Fulham & over 1.5	21.4%	21.8%	36.7%	0.59×	4.59
Fulham & over 2.5	17.4%	17.7%	30.2%	0.59×	5.66
Fulham & under 3.5	18.8%	17.7%	26.8%	0.66×	5.66
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	17.7%	20.0%	0.89×	5.66
Manchester United & over 3.5	18.5%	17.7%	10.7%	1.66×	5.66
Draw & under 2.5	16.0%	17.7%	16.3%	1.08×	5.66
Draw & under 3.5	16.0%	17.7%	16.3%	1.08×	5.66
Manchester United & under 2.5	16.3%	17.7%	12.4%	1.43×	5.66
Fulham & under 2.5	10.3%	12.5%	13.0%	0.96×	8.03
Fulham & under 1.5	6.3%	7.6%	6.5%	1.17×	13.17
Fulham & over 3.5	8.9%	7.6%	16.4%	0.46×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	7.6%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	7.6%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.17
Manchester United & under 1.5	8.7%	7.6%	6.9%	1.10×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	5.0%	7.6%	4.9%	1.56×	13.17

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (1UP)	64.7%	66.1%	51.4%	1.29×	1.51
Fulham (1UP)	46.7%	48.1%	62.1%	0.78×	2.08

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2UP)	48.7%	51.4%	34.5%	1.49×	1.94
Fulham (2UP)	27.7%	27.4%	44.9%	0.61×	3.65

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win 2nd half	41.6%	40.8%	32.9%	1.24×	2.45
2nd half drawn	31.8%	32.4%	30.9%	1.05×	3.09
Fulham to win 2nd half	26.6%	29.6%	36.3%	0.82×	3.37

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (+2.5)	96.2%	96.6%	89.2%	1.08×	1.04
Manchester United (+1.5)	88.5%	87.4%	76.0%	1.15×	1.14
Manchester United (+0.5)	72.3%	72.8%	56.9%	1.28×	1.37
Fulham (+0.5)	51.3%	52.0%	67.7%	0.77×	1.92
Manchester United (-0.5)	48.7%	48.0%	32.3%	1.49×	2.08
Fulham (-0.5)	27.7%	27.2%	43.1%	0.63×	3.68
Fulham (-1.5)	11.5%	12.6%	24.0%	0.53×	7.93
Fulham (-2.5)	3.8%	3.4%	10.8%	0.32×	29.52

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede	71.4%	75.5%	78.4%	0.96×	1.32
Manchester United clean sheet	28.6%	24.5%	21.6%	1.13×	4.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half	62.8%	62.1%	48.6%	1.28×	1.61
Manchester United to concede in 1st half	37.2%	37.9%	51.4%	0.74×	2.64

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 6.5 corners	78.6%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Manchester United over 2.5 corners	77.6%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Manchester United under 5.5 corners	67.7%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Manchester United over 3.5 corners	62.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Manchester United under 4.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Manchester United over 4.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Manchester United under 3.5 corners	38.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Manchester United over 5.5 corners	32.3%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Manchester United under 2.5 corners	22.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Manchester United over 6.5 corners	21.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 3.5 goals	90.1%	92.1%	94.5%	0.97×	1.09
Manchester United over 0.5 goals	82.4%	82.4%	74.9%	1.10×	1.21
Manchester United under 2.5 goals	74.8%	71.3%	85.0%	0.84×	1.40
Manchester United over 1.5 goals	51.8%	53.6%	39.4%	1.36×	1.87
Manchester United under 1.5 goals	48.2%	46.4%	60.6%	0.77×	2.16
Manchester United over 2.5 goals	25.2%	28.7%	15.0%	1.91×	3.48
Manchester United under 0.5 goals	17.6%	17.6%	25.1%	0.70×	5.69
Manchester United over 3.5 goals	9.9%	7.9%	5.5%	1.45×	12.60

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half	85.5%	86.9%	89.2%	0.97×	1.15
Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half	51.3%	52.4%	59.4%	0.88×	1.91
Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half	48.7%	47.6%	40.6%	1.17×	2.10
Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half	14.5%	13.1%	10.8%	1.21×	7.61

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (away no bet)	54.0%	52.1%	63.5%	0.82×	1.92
Draw (away no bet)	46.0%	47.9%	36.5%	1.31×	2.09

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United even goals	51.6%	53.5%	53.7%	1.00×	1.87
Manchester United odd goals	48.4%	46.5%	46.3%	1.00×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.7%	82.6%	80.1%	1.03×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.3%	17.4%	19.9%	0.88×	5.74

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.3%	66.7%	70.2%	0.95×	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.7%	33.3%	29.8%	1.12×	3.00

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.8%	59.3%	61.4%	0.97×	1.69
Manchester United to score 2+ in a row	42.6%	45.1%	29.9%	1.51×	2.22
Fulham to score 2+ in a row	25.9%	27.1%	39.1%	0.69×	3.70
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.3%	21.2%	26.2%	0.81×	4.71
Manchester United to score 3+ in a row	16.6%	17.3%	10.2%	1.71×	5.77
Fulham to score 3+ in a row	7.1%	7.8%	16.5%	0.47×	12.80

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham corners (+3.5)	87.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Fulham corners (+2.5)	80.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Manchester United corners (+3.5)	76.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fulham corners (+1.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Manchester United corners (+2.5)	67.7%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Manchester United corners (+1.5)	57.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fulham corners (-1.5)	42.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fulham corners (-2.5)	32.3%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Manchester United corners (-1.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Fulham corners (-3.5)	23.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Manchester United corners (-2.5)	19.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Manchester United corners (-3.5)	12.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	32.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	72.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	32.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	28.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.9%	11.2%	11.5%	0.98×	8.90
0-1	8.7%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
0-2	7.6%	7.4%	5.5%	1.34×	13.48
1-0	6.3%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.49
1-2	9.5%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
1-3	5.5%	7.4%	3.2%	2.29×	13.49
2-1	6.9%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.49
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.49
0-0	5.0%	7.4%	4.9%	1.52×	13.49
0-3	4.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.10
0-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.11
1-4	2.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.19×	58.10
2-0	4.0%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.10
2-3	3.4%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.10
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.52×	58.11
3-0	1.7%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.11
3-1	2.9%	1.7%	5.5%	0.32×	58.10
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.10
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.11
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.11
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.26×	58.11
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.11
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.26×	58.11
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.11
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.04×	58.11
Any other score	4.1%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.10

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United leading at HT (DNB)	61.5%	62.8%	40.4%	1.56×	1.59
Fulham leading at HT (DNB)	38.5%	37.2%	59.6%	0.62×	2.69

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham or Manchester United (12)	76.4%	76.5%	75.3%	1.02×	1.31
Manchester United or draw (X2)	72.3%	72.7%	56.9%	1.28×	1.38
Fulham or draw (1X)	51.3%	52.2%	67.7%	0.77×	1.92

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw at HT	78.1%	76.5%	63.8%	1.20×	1.31
Fulham or draw at HT	65.0%	62.8%	75.5%	0.83×	1.59
Fulham or Manchester United at HT	57.0%	57.2%	60.6%	0.94×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw (1UP)	72.3%	79.5%	65.2%	1.22×	1.26
Fulham or draw (1UP)	51.3%	60.2%	74.4%	0.81×	1.66

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw in 2nd half	73.4%	70.4%	63.7%	1.11×	1.42
Fulham or Manchester United in 2nd half	68.2%	67.6%	69.1%	0.98×	1.48
Fulham or draw in 2nd half	58.4%	59.2%	67.2%	0.88×	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.2%	60.1%	56.7%	1.06×	1.66
Neither half drawn	38.8%	39.9%	43.3%	0.92×	2.51

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (DNB)	63.8%	61.7%	42.8%	1.44×	1.62
Fulham (DNB)	36.2%	38.3%	57.2%	0.67×	2.61

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score first	55.2%	59.3%	43.3%	1.37×	1.69
Fulham to score first	39.8%	37.4%	52.0%	0.72×	2.68
No goal scored	5.0%	6.3%	4.9%	1.29×	16.00

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.9%	55.7%	58.2%	0.96×	1.80
Not both teams to score	41.1%	44.3%	41.8%	1.06×	2.26

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.9%	45.2%	46.8%	0.97×	2.21
Not both score & under 2.5	31.6%	34.0%	30.0%	1.13×	2.94
Both score & under 2.5	10.9%	11.9%	11.5%	1.03×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	9.5%	8.5%	11.9%	0.71×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.5%	83.1%	82.2%	1.01×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.5%	16.9%	17.8%	0.95×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.2%	65.2%	68.9%	0.95×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.8%	34.8%	31.1%	1.12×	2.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.6%	54.2%	55.9%	0.97×	1.85
Both score 2nd half only	29.3%	26.0%	24.6%	1.06×	3.84
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	11.9%	13.1%	0.91×	8.41
Both score in both halves	6.5%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.08

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.9%	82.7%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.1%	17.3%	19.6%	0.88×	5.77

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.2%	57.6%	61.9%	0.93×	1.74
A half without a goal	42.8%	42.4%	38.1%	1.12×	2.36

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.4%	46.6%	0.93×	2.31
4-6 goals	31.8%	30.8%	32.7%	0.94×	3.24
0-1 goals	20.1%	23.3%	18.1%	1.29×	4.29
7+ goals	3.3%	2.0%	2.8%	0.71×	50.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score exactly 1	30.6%	32.4%	35.6%	0.91×	3.08
Manchester United to score exactly 2	26.6%	27.4%	24.5%	1.12×	3.66
Manchester United to score 3+	25.2%	27.4%	15.0%	1.82×	3.66
Manchester United to score exactly 0	17.6%	18.4%	25.1%	0.73×	5.43

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to score exactly 1	35.8%	36.5%	29.6%	1.23×	2.74
Fulham to score exactly 0	28.6%	26.4%	21.6%	1.22×	3.79
Fulham to score exactly 2	22.4%	22.9%	26.1%	0.88×	4.37
Fulham to score 3+	13.2%	13.2%	22.9%	0.58×	7.58

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.0%	42.8%	39.4%	1.08×	2.34
Manchester United leading at HT	35.0%	37.2%	24.5%	1.52×	2.69
Fulham leading at HT	21.9%	23.5%	36.2%	0.65×	4.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United -1: 1	51.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Manchester United -1: 2	26.4%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Manchester United -1: X	22.4%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:1)	72.3%	72.1%	56.9%	1.27×	1.39
Draw (0:1)	16.2%	18.2%	19.2%	0.95×	5.51
Fulham (0:1)	11.5%	13.2%	24.0%	0.55×	7.60

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:2)	88.5%	86.7%	76.0%	1.14×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.7%	7.7%	13.3%	0.58×	12.95
Fulham (0:2)	3.8%	3.5%	10.8%	0.32×	28.79

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:3)	96.2%	96.7%	89.2%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.8%	2.6%	7.5%	0.34×	38.97
Fulham (0:3)	1.0%	2.6%	3.3%	0.77×	39.00

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:4)	99.0%	97.7%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.4%	2.0%	0.69×	70.59
Fulham (0:4)	0.2%	1.4%	1.4%	1.04×	70.61

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (1:0)	51.3%	52.1%	67.7%	0.77×	1.92
Manchester United (1:0)	26.4%	25.2%	15.8%	1.60×	3.96
Draw (1:0)	22.4%	21.9%	16.6%	1.32×	4.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (2:0)	73.6%	74.7%	84.2%	0.89×	1.34
Draw (2:0)	14.8%	11.5%	9.3%	1.24×	8.66
Manchester United (2:0)	11.5%	11.5%	6.6%	1.76×	8.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	54.3%	51.8%	49.7%	1.04×	1.93
1st half highest scoring	23.0%	23.2%	25.8%	0.90×	4.30
Halves equal	22.7%	23.2%	24.7%	0.94×	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to concede	82.4%	82.6%	74.9%	1.10×	1.21
Fulham clean sheet	17.6%	17.4%	25.1%	0.69×	5.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham clean sheet in 1st half	51.3%	52.3%	59.4%	0.88×	1.91
Fulham to concede in 1st half	48.7%	47.7%	40.6%	1.17×	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham over 2.5 corners	84.5%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Fulham over 3.5 corners	71.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fulham under 6.5 corners	68.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Fulham over 4.5 corners	57.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fulham under 5.5 corners	56.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fulham over 5.5 corners	43.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fulham under 4.5 corners	42.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fulham over 6.5 corners	31.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Fulham under 3.5 corners	28.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Fulham under 2.5 corners	15.5%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 3.5 goals	96.1%	96.6%	91.6%	1.05×	1.04
Fulham under 2.5 goals	86.8%	87.5%	77.1%	1.13×	1.14
Fulham over 0.5 goals	71.4%	73.2%	78.4%	0.93×	1.37
Fulham under 1.5 goals	64.4%	62.5%	51.1%	1.22×	1.60
Fulham over 1.5 goals	35.7%	37.6%	48.9%	0.77×	2.66
Fulham under 0.5 goals	28.6%	26.8%	21.6%	1.24×	3.73
Fulham over 2.5 goals	13.2%	12.5%	22.9%	0.55×	7.98
Fulham over 3.5 goals	3.9%	3.4%	8.4%	0.41×	29.05

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 1.5 in 1st half	92.0%	93.8%	84.5%	1.11×	1.07
Fulham under 0.5 in 1st half	62.8%	61.8%	48.6%	1.27×	1.62
Fulham over 0.5 in 1st half	37.2%	38.2%	51.4%	0.74×	2.62
Fulham over 1.5 in 1st half	8.0%	6.2%	15.5%	0.40×	16.22

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (home no bet)	67.4%	64.6%	56.6%	1.14×	1.55
Draw (home no bet)	32.6%	35.4%	43.4%	0.81×	2.83

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham even goals	54.1%	50.9%	53.8%	0.95×	1.96
Fulham odd goals	45.9%	49.1%	46.2%	1.06×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.2%	32.2%	27.6%	1.16×	3.11
HT 0-1	21.5%	22.2%	14.8%	1.49×	4.51
HT 1-0	15.0%	11.0%	21.8%	0.50×	9.12
HT 1-1	10.0%	8.0%	10.9%	0.74×	12.44
HT 0-2	7.2%	8.0%	4.5%	1.77×	12.47
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.5%	5.3%	0.47×	40.36
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.5%	8.1%	0.31×	40.39
HT 1-2	3.3%	2.5%	2.8%	0.88×	40.40
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.5%	3.8%	0.66×	40.44
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.5%	1.0%	2.41×	40.51

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT	27.7%	26.2%	16.9%	1.55×	3.81
Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT	17.9%	17.2%	12.0%	1.43×	5.82
Fulham at HT / Fulham at FT	14.0%	12.2%	26.3%	0.46×	8.20
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.7%	12.2%	13.6%	0.90×	8.20
Draw at HT / Fulham at FT	11.4%	12.2%	14.0%	0.87×	8.21
Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.4%	4.8%	1.34×	15.60
Fulham at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.7%	6.6%	0.56×	27.26
Fulham at HT / Manchester United at FT	3.1%	3.7%	3.5%	1.05×	27.31
Manchester United at HT / Fulham at FT	2.2%	3.7%	3.0%	1.23×	27.33

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score last	55.2%	57.8%	44.9%	1.29×	1.73
Fulham to score last	39.8%	38.0%	50.3%	0.76×	2.63
No goal scored	5.0%	6.3%	4.9%	1.29×	16.00

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.0%	93.7%	95.1%	0.98×	1.07
Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time	64.7%	64.1%	51.4%	1.25×	1.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.8%	50.8%	50.8%	1.00×	1.97
Fulham to lead by 1 at any time	46.7%	46.8%	62.1%	0.75×	2.14
Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time	33.6%	31.7%	21.2%	1.49×	3.15
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.6%	17.3%	21.2%	0.82×	5.77
Fulham to lead by 2 at any time	17.5%	17.3%	29.9%	0.58×	5.78
Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time	14.2%	11.0%	8.1%	1.36×	9.08
Fulham to lead by 3 at any time	5.4%	7.6%	13.1%	0.58×	13.23

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham most corners	52.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Manchester United most corners	36.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.1%	88.5%	0.98×	1.15
1-4 goals	76.7%	77.9%	78.2%	1.00×	1.28
2-6 goals	76.6%	77.9%	79.2%	0.98×	1.28
2-5 goals	71.7%	72.1%	75.3%	0.96×	1.39
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.7%	64.9%	0.97×	1.60
1-3 goals	59.9%	58.8%	59.8%	0.98×	1.70
3-6 goals	54.2%	52.9%	55.8%	0.95×	1.89
3-5 goals	49.2%	47.4%	51.9%	0.91×	2.11
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.7%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.0%	41.6%	0.94×	2.56
1-2 goals	37.5%	39.0%	36.7%	1.06×	2.56
4-6 goals	31.8%	34.6%	32.7%	1.06×	2.89
4-5 goals	26.8%	28.5%	28.8%	0.99×	3.51
5-6 goals	15.0%	18.8%	14.3%	1.31×	5.31
7+ goals	3.3%	2.2%	2.8%	0.80×	44.56

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United never behind	48.3%	55.5%	37.9%	1.47×	1.80
Fulham never behind	30.3%	37.9%	48.6%	0.78×	2.64

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.1%	50.0%	51.0%	0.98×	2.00
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.0%	49.0%	1.02×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.2%	55.1%	53.4%	1.03×	1.82
Odd goals in 1st half	44.8%	44.9%	46.6%	0.96×	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	51.5%	51.8%	0.99×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.5%	48.2%	1.01×	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.7%	81.7%	82.9%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.9%	77.0%	81.9%	0.94×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	65.0%	62.3%	64.6%	0.97×	1.60
Over 2.5 goals	57.4%	57.5%	58.5%	0.98×	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	42.6%	42.5%	41.5%	1.02×	2.35
Over 3.5 goals	35.0%	37.7%	35.4%	1.06×	2.66
Under 1.5 goals	20.1%	23.0%	18.1%	1.27×	4.35
Over 4.5 goals	18.3%	18.3%	17.1%	1.07×	5.46
Over 5.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	6.7%	1.15×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	4.9%	1.59×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.3%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.8%	92.0%	92.5%	1.00×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.0%	76.2%	79.1%	0.96×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.1%	71.7%	76.4%	0.94×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.8%	52.8%	53.9%	0.98×	1.89
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.2%	47.2%	46.1%	1.03×	2.12
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.9%	28.3%	23.6%	1.20×	3.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.0%	23.8%	20.9%	1.14×	4.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.2%	8.0%	7.5%	1.06×	12.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.7%	2.9%	0.93×	36.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.4%	88.4%	87.4%	1.01×	1.13
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.7%	67.6%	64.1%	1.06×	1.48
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	67.6%	72.4%	0.93×	1.48
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	32.4%	27.6%	1.17×	3.09
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.3%	32.4%	35.9%	0.90×	3.09
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.6%	11.6%	12.6%	0.92×	8.61

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.4%	82.7%	84.7%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.5%	75.7%	75.9%	1.00×	1.32
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.4%	56.4%	54.2%	1.04×	1.77
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.6%	43.6%	45.8%	0.95×	2.29
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.5%	24.3%	24.1%	1.01×	4.11
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.6%	17.3%	15.3%	1.13×	5.77

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham not to score in both halves	79.7%	76.4%	68.7%	1.11×	1.31
Manchester United not to score in both halves	68.0%	67.2%	76.8%	0.87×	1.49
Manchester United to score in both halves	32.0%	32.8%	23.2%	1.41×	3.05
Fulham to score in both halves	20.3%	23.6%	31.3%	0.75×	4.24

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.9%	57.9%	58.2%	1.00×	1.73
Only Manchester United scores	23.5%	21.3%	16.8%	1.26×	4.70
Only Fulham scores	12.6%	11.1%	20.3%	0.54×	9.04
Neither team scores	5.0%	7.2%	4.9%	1.47×	13.97

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.5%	22.3%	23.5%	0.95×	4.48
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.3%	23.2%	0.96×	4.48
Exactly 4 goals	16.7%	17.6%	18.4%	0.95×	5.69
Exactly 1 goals	15.0%	17.6%	13.3%	1.32×	5.69
Exactly 5 goals	10.0%	12.3%	10.4%	1.18×	8.13
6 or more goals	8.3%	7.8%	6.7%	1.15×	12.88
Exactly 0 goals	5.0%	7.8%	4.9%	1.60×	12.89

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.4%	55.9%	54.2%	1.03×	1.79
1 goal in 2nd half	29.0%	26.7%	30.6%	0.87×	3.74
No goals in 2nd half	15.6%	16.5%	15.3%	1.08×	6.06

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham not to win both halves	94.2%	92.3%	86.5%	1.07×	1.08
Manchester United not to win both halves	85.4%	87.9%	91.2%	0.96×	1.14
Manchester United to win both halves	14.6%	12.1%	8.8%	1.38×	8.25
Fulham to win both halves	5.8%	7.7%	13.5%	0.57×	12.96

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win either half	62.1%	64.1%	48.5%	1.32×	1.56
Fulham to win neither half	57.3%	57.2%	41.0%	1.40×	1.75
Fulham to win either half	42.7%	42.8%	59.0%	0.73×	2.34
Manchester United to win neither half	37.9%	35.9%	51.5%	0.70×	2.79

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham not to win to nil	87.4%	88.1%	79.7%	1.11×	1.14
Manchester United not to win to nil	76.5%	78.7%	83.2%	0.95×	1.27
Manchester United to win to nil	23.5%	21.3%	16.8%	1.27×	4.69
Fulham to win to nil	12.6%	11.9%	20.3%	0.59×	8.39

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.6%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.29
Manchester United by 1	22.4%	23.3%	16.6%	1.41×	4.29
Fulham by 1	16.2%	17.3%	19.2%	0.90×	5.78
Manchester United by 2	14.8%	11.8%	9.3%	1.27×	8.46
Manchester United by 3+	11.5%	11.8%	6.6%	1.80×	8.46
Fulham by 2	7.7%	7.3%	13.3%	0.55×	13.66
Fulham by 3+	3.8%	3.0%	10.8%	0.28×	33.81