Fulham v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 30
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 16
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.40
Goals − xG
-0.72 – -1.19
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyFulham win
27.8%
model 29.2%
Draw
23.1%
model 24.4%
Manchester United win
49.2%
model 46.4%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.5%
- 1-2 9.3%
- 0-1 9.2%
- 0-2 7.5%
- 2-1 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 54.7% | Under 2.5 | 45.3% |
| BTTS yes | 57.2% | BTTS no | 42.8% |
| Fulham 1+ | 71.1% | Fulham 2+ | 35.2% |
| Manchester United 1+ | 80.4% | Manchester United 2+ | 48.4% |
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.63. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
97/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Fulham to win neither half
Win either half · usually 41%
59.4% fair odds 1.69
strong signal · 1049 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time · usually 80%
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1257 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1693 Elo against 1540.
- Manchester United have created 2.05 xG a match over their last five while Fulham have allowed 1.84.
- Away from home Manchester United average 1.19 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Manchester United have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.8% for Fulham and 23.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.24 for Fulham and 1.63 for Manchester United.
Why Fulham
Fulham have created 1.34 xG a match over their last five while Manchester United have allowed 1.29. At home Fulham average 1.70 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Manchester United can win
Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1693 Elo against 1540. Manchester United have created 2.05 xG a match over their last five while Fulham have allowed 1.84. Away from home Manchester United average 1.19 xG a match.
Key players
Fulham's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonzalo García (0.45), Raúl Jiménez (0.36), Harry Wilson (0.27). Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.71), Bryan Mbeumo (0.51), Matheus Cunha (0.35).
Availability
2 of Fulham's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Fulham's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Fulham: 55% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester United: 58% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-20 15:09 · team_stats 2026-09-20 06:07 · availability 2026-09-20 15:12 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Manchester United are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 16.5 xG
conceded 12
from 14.6 xG
Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLWDLDDD last 10
scored 16
from 19.7 xG
conceded 12
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.24–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-goals | 1.27–1.54 | 1-1 13% | 53% | 58% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.29–1.56 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.28–1.57 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 46.1% | 47.2% | 32.4% | 1.46× | 2.12 |
| Fulham to win | 30.5% | 30.5% | 42.9% | 0.71× | 3.28 |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.5% | 24.9% | 0.98× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United & both teams score | 25.3% | 25.1% | 15.6% | 1.61× | 3.98 |
| Manchester United & not both score | 20.8% | 21.8% | 16.9% | 1.29× | 4.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.9% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.57 |
| Fulham & both teams score | 17.4% | 18.0% | 22.7% | 0.79× | 5.57 |
| Fulham & not both score | 13.2% | 13.3% | 20.2% | 0.66× | 7.53 |
| Draw & not both score | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 0.98× | 20.45 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United & over 1.5 | 38.4% | 34.8% | 25.5% | 1.36× | 2.87 |
| Manchester United & over 2.5 | 31.7% | 30.8% | 20.0% | 1.54× | 3.25 |
| Manchester United & under 3.5 | 27.5% | 26.1% | 21.7% | 1.20× | 3.84 |
| Fulham & over 1.5 | 24.4% | 21.6% | 36.5% | 0.59× | 4.63 |
| Fulham & over 2.5 | 20.2% | 21.6% | 30.1% | 0.72× | 4.63 |
| Fulham & under 3.5 | 19.6% | 18.0% | 26.6% | 0.68× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.9% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Manchester United & over 3.5 | 18.5% | 18.0% | 10.7% | 1.67× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 15.1% | 18.0% | 16.3% | 1.10× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 15.1% | 18.0% | 16.3% | 1.10× | 5.56 |
| Manchester United & under 2.5 | 14.4% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 1.04× | 7.77 |
| Fulham & under 2.5 | 10.3% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 1.00× | 7.78 |
| Fulham & over 3.5 | 11.0% | 12.9% | 16.3% | 0.79× | 7.78 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 0.92× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 0.92× | 12.62 |
| Manchester United & under 1.5 | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 1.14× | 12.63 |
| Fulham & under 1.5 | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 1.23× | 12.63 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 0.96× | 20.83 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (1UP) | 63.2% | 63.2% | 51.5% | 1.23× | 1.58 |
| Fulham (1UP) | 50.0% | 52.5% | 62.0% | 0.85× | 1.91 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (2UP) | 46.1% | 49.3% | 34.6% | 1.43× | 2.03 |
| Fulham (2UP) | 30.5% | 30.7% | 44.6% | 0.69× | 3.26 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win 2nd half | 41.1% | 41.0% | 32.8% | 1.25× | 2.44 |
| 2nd half drawn | 30.4% | 34.2% | 31.1% | 1.10× | 2.92 |
| Fulham to win 2nd half | 28.5% | 26.7% | 36.2% | 0.74× | 3.75 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United under 1.5 in 2nd half | 68.8% | 70.6% | 79.8% | 0.88× | 1.42 |
| Manchester United over 0.5 in 2nd half | 67.7% | 70.5% | 57.6% | 1.22× | 1.42 |
| Manchester United under 0.5 in 2nd half | 32.3% | 29.5% | 42.4% | 0.70× | 3.39 |
| Manchester United over 1.5 in 2nd half | 31.2% | 29.4% | 20.2% | 1.46× | 3.40 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham under 1.5 in 2nd half | 77.7% | 76.3% | 75.4% | 1.01× | 1.31 |
| Fulham over 0.5 in 2nd half | 58.9% | 58.7% | 58.3% | 1.01× | 1.70 |
| Fulham under 0.5 in 2nd half | 41.1% | 41.3% | 41.7% | 0.99× | 2.42 |
| Fulham over 1.5 in 2nd half | 22.3% | 23.7% | 24.6% | 0.96× | 4.22 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (+2.5) | 95.2% | 96.3% | 89.2% | 1.08× | 1.04 |
| Manchester United (+1.5) | 86.5% | 88.5% | 76.1% | 1.16× | 1.13 |
| Manchester United (+0.5) | 69.5% | 68.7% | 57.1% | 1.20× | 1.46 |
| Fulham (+0.5) | 53.9% | 52.5% | 67.6% | 0.78× | 1.91 |
| Manchester United (-0.5) | 46.1% | 47.5% | 32.4% | 1.47× | 2.11 |
| Fulham (-0.5) | 30.5% | 31.3% | 42.9% | 0.73× | 3.19 |
| Fulham (-1.5) | 13.5% | 11.5% | 23.9% | 0.48× | 8.69 |
| Fulham (-2.5) | 4.8% | 3.7% | 10.8% | 0.34× | 27.02 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to concede | 74.7% | 76.7% | 78.2% | 0.98× | 1.30 |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 25.3% | 23.3% | 21.8% | 1.07× | 4.28 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half | 61.4% | 64.0% | 48.8% | 1.31× | 1.56 |
| Manchester United to concede in 1st half | 38.6% | 36.0% | 51.2% | 0.70× | 2.78 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to concede in 2nd half | 58.9% | 58.3% | 58.3% | 1.00× | 1.72 |
| Manchester United clean sheet in 2nd half | 41.1% | 41.7% | 41.7% | 1.00× | 2.40 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United under 6.5 corners | 78.5% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Manchester United over 2.5 corners | 77.7% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Manchester United under 5.5 corners | 67.6% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Manchester United over 3.5 corners | 62.1% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Manchester United under 4.5 corners | 53.7% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Manchester United over 4.5 corners | 46.3% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Manchester United under 3.5 corners | 37.9% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Manchester United over 5.5 corners | 32.4% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Manchester United under 2.5 corners | 22.3% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.17 |
| Manchester United over 6.5 corners | 21.5% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.17 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United under 3.5 goals | 90.1% | 92.3% | 94.5% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Manchester United over 0.5 goals | 82.4% | 81.4% | 74.9% | 1.09× | 1.23 |
| Manchester United under 2.5 goals | 74.7% | 71.9% | 85.0% | 0.85× | 1.39 |
| Manchester United over 1.5 goals | 51.8% | 53.5% | 39.6% | 1.35× | 1.87 |
| Manchester United under 1.5 goals | 48.2% | 46.5% | 60.4% | 0.77× | 2.15 |
| Manchester United over 2.5 goals | 25.3% | 28.1% | 15.0% | 1.87× | 3.56 |
| Manchester United under 0.5 goals | 17.6% | 18.6% | 25.1% | 0.74× | 5.37 |
| Manchester United over 3.5 goals | 9.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.40× | 12.98 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half | 87.6% | 88.9% | 89.1% | 1.00× | 1.13 |
| Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half | 54.5% | 55.8% | 59.3% | 0.94× | 1.79 |
| Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half | 45.5% | 44.2% | 40.7% | 1.09× | 2.26 |
| Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 1.02× | 9.00 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United scores more in 2nd half | 48.3% | 48.3% | 40.5% | 1.19× | 2.07 |
| Manchester United scores equally in both | 31.9% | 33.9% | 37.7% | 0.90× | 2.95 |
| Manchester United scores more in 1st half | 19.8% | 18.2% | 21.9% | 0.83× | 5.49 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham (away no bet) | 56.6% | 57.3% | 63.3% | 0.91× | 1.74 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 43.4% | 42.7% | 36.7% | 1.16× | 2.34 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United even goals | 51.5% | 52.6% | 53.8% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Manchester United odd goals | 48.5% | 47.4% | 46.2% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 82.1% | 82.8% | 80.1% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 17.9% | 17.2% | 19.9% | 0.86× | 5.82 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 71.9% | 67.2% | 70.2% | 0.96× | 1.49 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 32.8% | 29.8% | 1.10× | 3.05 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 62.6% | 60.0% | 61.5% | 0.98× | 1.67 |
| Manchester United to score 2+ in a row | 41.9% | 38.2% | 29.9% | 1.28× | 2.62 |
| Fulham to score 2+ in a row | 29.5% | 25.4% | 39.0% | 0.65× | 3.94 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 24.3% | 19.6% | 26.2% | 0.75× | 5.10 |
| Manchester United to score 3+ in a row | 16.0% | 16.4% | 10.1% | 1.61× | 6.11 |
| Fulham to score 3+ in a row | 8.7% | 5.7% | 16.5% | 0.35× | 17.50 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham corners (+3.5) | 87.7% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Fulham corners (+2.5) | 81.6% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Manchester United corners (+3.5) | 75.0% | 70.8% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Fulham corners (+1.5) | 73.9% | 70.8% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Manchester United corners (+2.5) | 66.2% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Manchester United corners (+1.5) | 56.3% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Fulham corners (-1.5) | 43.7% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Fulham corners (-2.5) | 33.8% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Manchester United corners (-1.5) | 26.1% | 29.2% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Fulham corners (-3.5) | 25.0% | 29.2% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Manchester United corners (-2.5) | 18.4% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Manchester United corners (-3.5) | 12.3% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.44 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 36.6% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 12+ corners | 34.0% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.5% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 74.1% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73.3% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 66.0% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 63.4% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 56.8% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53.2% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 46.8% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 43.2% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 36.6% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 34.0% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 26.7% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 25.9% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 1.00× | 8.73 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.50 |
| 0-2 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.33× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 0.83× | 13.50 |
| 1-0 | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.15× | 13.50 |
| 1-3 | 5.3% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 2.31× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 0.96× | 13.50 |
| 0-0 | 4.4% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.34× | 58.33 |
| 0-3 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.68× | 58.33 |
| 0-4 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.56× | 58.34 |
| 1-4 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.19× | 58.34 |
| 2-0 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 6.5% | 0.26× | 58.33 |
| 2-3 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.70× | 58.33 |
| 2-4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.53× | 58.34 |
| 3-0 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 0.34× | 58.34 |
| 3-1 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 5.4% | 0.32× | 58.33 |
| 3-2 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.56× | 58.34 |
| 3-3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.25× | 58.34 |
| 3-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.38× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.27× | 58.35 |
| 4-1 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.75× | 58.35 |
| 4-2 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.27× | 58.35 |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.84× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.07× | 58.35 |
| Any other score | 4.5% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 0.41× | 58.33 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (2nd half DNB) | 59.1% | 59.8% | 47.5% | 1.26× | 1.67 |
| Fulham (2nd half DNB) | 40.9% | 40.2% | 52.5% | 0.77× | 2.49 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United leading at HT (DNB) | 57.0% | 58.4% | 40.6% | 1.44× | 1.71 |
| Fulham leading at HT (DNB) | 43.0% | 41.6% | 59.4% | 0.70× | 2.41 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham or Manchester United (12) | 76.6% | 75.6% | 75.1% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Manchester United or draw (X2) | 69.5% | 69.5% | 57.1% | 1.22× | 1.44 |
| Fulham or draw (1X) | 53.9% | 52.8% | 67.6% | 0.78× | 1.89 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United or draw at HT | 75.9% | 79.8% | 64.1% | 1.25× | 1.25 |
| Fulham or draw at HT | 68.2% | 66.5% | 75.4% | 0.88× | 1.50 |
| Fulham or Manchester United at HT | 55.9% | 56.7% | 60.4% | 0.94× | 1.77 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United or draw (1UP) | 69.5% | 76.1% | 65.3% | 1.16× | 1.31 |
| Fulham or draw (1UP) | 53.9% | 59.6% | 74.3% | 0.80× | 1.68 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United or draw in 2nd half | 71.5% | 73.3% | 63.8% | 1.15× | 1.36 |
| Fulham or Manchester United in 2nd half | 69.6% | 65.8% | 68.9% | 0.95× | 1.52 |
| Fulham or draw in 2nd half | 58.9% | 59.0% | 67.2% | 0.88× | 1.69 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 61.1% | 61.6% | 57.0% | 1.08× | 1.62 |
| Neither half drawn | 38.9% | 38.4% | 43.0% | 0.89× | 2.61 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (DNB) | 60.2% | 62.6% | 43.0% | 1.45× | 1.60 |
| Fulham (DNB) | 39.9% | 37.4% | 57.0% | 0.66× | 2.67 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to score first | 53.3% | 53.8% | 43.3% | 1.24× | 1.86 |
| Fulham to score first | 42.2% | 41.8% | 51.8% | 0.81× | 2.39 |
| No goal scored | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 0.88× | 22.85 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 56.5% | 58.1% | 0.97× | 1.77 |
| Not both teams to score | 38.4% | 43.5% | 41.9% | 1.04× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 51.0% | 47.2% | 46.7% | 1.01× | 2.12 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 29.2% | 33.4% | 30.1% | 1.11× | 2.99 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 10.6% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 1.08× | 8.10 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.2% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 0.70× | 12.02 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 79.3% | 79.7% | 82.1% | 0.97× | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 20.7% | 20.3% | 17.9% | 1.13× | 4.92 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 60.1% | 65.4% | 68.8% | 0.95× | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 39.9% | 34.6% | 31.2% | 1.11× | 2.89 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 49.6% | 53.8% | 55.9% | 0.96× | 1.86 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 32.8% | 27.0% | 24.5% | 1.10× | 3.71 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.6% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 0.82× | 9.41 |
| Both score in both halves | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 1.02× | 14.44 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 82.4% | 82.7% | 80.3% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 17.6% | 17.3% | 19.7% | 0.88× | 5.79 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 57.7% | 57.4% | 61.9% | 0.93× | 1.74 |
| A half without a goal | 42.3% | 42.6% | 38.1% | 1.12× | 2.35 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 43.9% | 42.0% | 46.4% | 0.91× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 33.9% | 30.8% | 32.8% | 0.94× | 3.25 |
| 0-1 goals | 18.3% | 20.3% | 18.2% | 1.12× | 4.93 |
| 7+ goals | 3.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 0.65× | 54.81 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to score exactly 1 | 30.6% | 33.8% | 35.4% | 0.95× | 2.96 |
| Manchester United to score exactly 2 | 26.6% | 27.4% | 24.6% | 1.11× | 3.65 |
| Manchester United to score 3+ | 25.3% | 27.4% | 15.0% | 1.82× | 3.65 |
| Manchester United to score exactly 0 | 17.6% | 19.6% | 25.1% | 0.78× | 5.11 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham to score exactly 1 | 34.8% | 32.6% | 29.4% | 1.11× | 3.07 |
| Fulham to score exactly 0 | 25.3% | 26.5% | 21.8% | 1.22× | 3.77 |
| Fulham to score exactly 2 | 23.9% | 23.3% | 26.1% | 0.89× | 4.29 |
| Fulham to score 3+ | 16.1% | 18.8% | 22.8% | 0.82× | 5.32 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 44.1% | 43.3% | 39.6% | 1.10× | 2.31 |
| Manchester United leading at HT | 31.8% | 33.5% | 24.6% | 1.36× | 2.98 |
| Fulham leading at HT | 24.1% | 20.2% | 35.9% | 0.56× | 4.96 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United -1: 1 | 53.9% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Manchester United -1: 2 | 24.6% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
| Manchester United -1: X | 21.5% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (0:1) | 69.5% | 65.2% | 57.1% | 1.14× | 1.53 |
| Draw (0:1) | 17.0% | 17.8% | 19.0% | 0.94× | 5.61 |
| Fulham (0:1) | 13.5% | 13.7% | 23.9% | 0.57× | 7.28 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (0:2) | 86.5% | 87.1% | 76.1% | 1.14× | 1.15 |
| Draw (0:2) | 8.7% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 0.58× | 13.00 |
| Fulham (0:2) | 4.8% | 3.8% | 10.8% | 0.35× | 26.59 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (0:3) | 95.2% | 96.6% | 89.2% | 1.08× | 1.04 |
| Draw (0:3) | 3.4% | 2.4% | 7.6% | 0.31× | 42.20 |
| Fulham (0:3) | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.72× | 42.29 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (0:4) | 98.6% | 98.1% | 96.7% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.60× | 82.80 |
| Fulham (0:4) | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.89× | 82.88 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham (1:0) | 53.9% | 54.2% | 67.6% | 0.80× | 1.85 |
| Manchester United (1:0) | 24.6% | 21.8% | 15.8% | 1.38× | 4.59 |
| Draw (1:0) | 21.5% | 21.8% | 16.7% | 1.31× | 4.60 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham (2:0) | 75.4% | 80.3% | 84.2% | 0.95× | 1.25 |
| Draw (2:0) | 13.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 1.11× | 9.66 |
| Manchester United (2:0) | 10.7% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 1.57× | 9.69 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 58.7% | 58.9% | 49.6% | 1.19× | 1.70 |
| Halves equal | 21.2% | 24.3% | 24.7% | 0.98× | 4.12 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 20.1% | 24.2% | 25.8% | 0.94× | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham to concede | 82.4% | 80.7% | 74.9% | 1.08× | 1.24 |
| Fulham clean sheet | 17.6% | 19.3% | 25.1% | 0.77× | 5.19 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham clean sheet in 1st half | 54.5% | 55.8% | 59.3% | 0.94× | 1.79 |
| Fulham to concede in 1st half | 45.5% | 44.2% | 40.7% | 1.09× | 2.26 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham to concede in 2nd half | 67.7% | 67.8% | 57.6% | 1.18× | 1.47 |
| Fulham clean sheet in 2nd half | 32.3% | 32.2% | 42.4% | 0.76× | 3.11 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham over 2.5 corners | 85.6% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Fulham over 3.5 corners | 73.5% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Fulham under 6.5 corners | 66.4% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Fulham over 4.5 corners | 59.7% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Fulham under 5.5 corners | 54.1% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Fulham over 5.5 corners | 45.9% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Fulham under 4.5 corners | 40.3% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Fulham over 6.5 corners | 33.6% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Fulham under 3.5 corners | 26.5% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Fulham under 2.5 corners | 14.4% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.30 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham under 3.5 goals | 94.9% | 92.2% | 91.6% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Fulham under 2.5 goals | 83.9% | 82.2% | 77.2% | 1.07× | 1.22 |
| Fulham over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | 74.3% | 78.2% | 0.95× | 1.35 |
| Fulham under 1.5 goals | 60.0% | 63.6% | 51.1% | 1.24× | 1.57 |
| Fulham over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 36.4% | 48.9% | 0.75× | 2.75 |
| Fulham under 0.5 goals | 25.3% | 25.7% | 21.8% | 1.18× | 3.89 |
| Fulham over 2.5 goals | 16.1% | 17.8% | 22.8% | 0.78× | 5.62 |
| Fulham over 3.5 goals | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 0.93× | 12.88 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham under 1.5 in 1st half | 91.3% | 94.9% | 84.5% | 1.12× | 1.05 |
| Fulham under 0.5 in 1st half | 61.4% | 63.7% | 48.8% | 1.31× | 1.57 |
| Fulham over 0.5 in 1st half | 38.6% | 36.3% | 51.2% | 0.71× | 2.75 |
| Fulham over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.7% | 5.1% | 15.5% | 0.33× | 19.71 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham scores more in 2nd half | 43.3% | 42.4% | 36.1% | 1.17× | 2.36 |
| Fulham scores equally in both | 37.4% | 37.5% | 37.8% | 0.99× | 2.67 |
| Fulham scores more in 1st half | 19.3% | 14.4% | 26.2% | 0.55× | 6.94 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United (home no bet) | 66.3% | 64.0% | 56.6% | 1.13× | 1.56 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 33.7% | 36.1% | 43.4% | 0.83× | 2.77 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham even goals | 53.2% | 50.7% | 54.0% | 0.94× | 1.97 |
| Fulham odd goals | 46.8% | 49.3% | 46.0% | 1.07× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 33.4% | 33.0% | 27.8% | 1.19× | 3.03 |
| HT 0-1 | 20.3% | 24.1% | 14.9% | 1.62× | 4.16 |
| HT 1-0 | 16.3% | 18.7% | 21.6% | 0.87× | 5.35 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.9% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 0.65× | 14.06 |
| HT 0-2 | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.58× | 14.12 |
| HT 2-0 | 4.0% | 2.3% | 8.0% | 0.29× | 42.71 |
| Any other HT score | 3.7% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 0.44× | 42.73 |
| HT 1-2 | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 0.79× | 42.78 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 0.63× | 42.82 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 2.30× | 42.94 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT | 24.5% | 21.6% | 17.0% | 1.27× | 4.63 |
| Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT | 18.1% | 16.8% | 12.1% | 1.39× | 5.97 |
| Fulham at HT / Fulham at FT | 15.5% | 16.7% | 26.1% | 0.64× | 5.98 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 13.4% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 0.93× | 7.88 |
| Draw at HT / Fulham at FT | 12.6% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.91× | 7.89 |
| Fulham at HT / Draw at FT | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 0.93× | 16.43 |
| Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 0.71× | 29.05 |
| Fulham at HT / Manchester United at FT | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.99× | 29.11 |
| Manchester United at HT / Fulham at FT | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.16× | 29.15 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to score last | 53.3% | 52.0% | 45.1% | 1.15× | 1.92 |
| Fulham to score last | 42.2% | 40.3% | 50.0% | 0.80× | 2.48 |
| No goal scored | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 0.88× | 22.85 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 95.6% | 95.6% | 95.0% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time | 63.2% | 61.3% | 51.5% | 1.19× | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 52.1% | 50.7% | 50.6% | 1.00× | 1.97 |
| Fulham to lead by 1 at any time | 50.0% | 50.6% | 62.0% | 0.82× | 1.98 |
| Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time | 32.3% | 29.6% | 21.2% | 1.40× | 3.38 |
| Fulham to lead by 2 at any time | 20.2% | 19.6% | 29.8% | 0.66× | 5.09 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 20.2% | 19.6% | 21.2% | 0.93× | 5.09 |
| Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time | 13.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 1.30× | 9.49 |
| Fulham to lead by 3 at any time | 6.7% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 0.51× | 14.90 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham most corners | 54.2% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Manchester United most corners | 35.5% | 39.3% | — | — | 2.54 |
| Corners level | 10.3% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.0% | 87.4% | 88.4% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| 2-6 goals | 77.8% | 78.6% | 79.1% | 0.99× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 75.1% | 78.6% | 77.9% | 1.01× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.2% | 72.4% | 75.2% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.3% | 63.4% | 64.8% | 0.98× | 1.58 |
| 1-3 goals | 57.7% | 59.1% | 59.6% | 0.99× | 1.69 |
| 3-6 goals | 56.2% | 59.1% | 55.9% | 1.06× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 50.6% | 53.1% | 52.0% | 1.02× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 43.9% | 43.6% | 46.4% | 0.94× | 2.30 |
| 3-4 goals | 39.8% | 39.2% | 41.5% | 0.95× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 35.4% | 39.2% | 36.5% | 1.07× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 33.9% | 35.2% | 32.8% | 1.07× | 2.84 |
| 4-5 goals | 28.3% | 30.3% | 28.9% | 1.05× | 3.30 |
| 5-6 goals | 16.5% | 18.8% | 14.5% | 1.30× | 5.32 |
| 7+ goals | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0.91× | 39.18 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United never behind | 45.5% | 56.3% | 38.0% | 1.48× | 1.78 |
| Fulham never behind | 32.4% | 36.0% | 48.5% | 0.74× | 2.78 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.9% | 49.0% | 1.04× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 51.0% | 0.96× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.6% | 57.3% | 53.4% | 1.07× | 1.75 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.4% | 42.7% | 46.6% | 0.92× | 2.34 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.9% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 1.00× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.1% | 48.0% | 48.0% | 1.00× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95.6% | 95.4% | 95.0% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 90.4% | 92.2% | 93.3% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | 82.3% | 81.8% | 1.01× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 79.6% | 77.4% | 82.8% | 0.93× | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62.2% | 61.7% | 64.5% | 0.96× | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 61.7% | 58.6% | 1.05× | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 38.3% | 41.4% | 0.93× | 2.61 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.8% | 38.3% | 35.5% | 1.08× | 2.61 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20.4% | 22.6% | 17.2% | 1.32× | 4.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.3% | 17.7% | 18.2% | 0.97× | 5.65 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 1.16× | 12.88 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.92× | 21.86 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 95.8% | 97.2% | 97.1% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 89.3% | 86.7% | 92.5% | 0.94× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 76.7% | 75.9% | 76.3% | 0.99× | 1.32 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 75.3% | 75.9% | 79.0% | 0.96× | 1.32 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 51.3% | 51.8% | 53.8% | 0.96× | 1.93 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 48.7% | 48.2% | 46.2% | 1.04× | 2.08 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 24.7% | 24.1% | 21.0% | 1.15× | 4.14 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 23.3% | 24.1% | 23.7% | 1.02× | 4.14 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 10.7% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 1.78× | 7.54 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.96× | 35.75 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 90.1% | 92.5% | 87.2% | 1.06× | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 70.1% | 71.1% | 64.1% | 1.11× | 1.41 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 66.6% | 68.7% | 72.2% | 0.95× | 1.46 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 33.4% | 31.3% | 27.8% | 1.13× | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 29.9% | 28.9% | 35.9% | 0.80× | 3.47 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 9.9% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 0.59× | 13.35 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 86.7% | 85.3% | 84.7% | 1.01× | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 67.2% | 67.7% | 75.9% | 0.89× | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 59.9% | 54.8% | 54.3% | 1.01× | 1.83 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 40.1% | 45.2% | 45.7% | 0.99× | 2.21 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 32.8% | 32.3% | 24.1% | 1.34× | 3.10 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 13.3% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 0.96× | 6.81 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham not to score in both halves | 77.3% | 78.2% | 68.6% | 1.14× | 1.28 |
| Manchester United not to score in both halves | 69.2% | 70.2% | 76.7% | 0.92× | 1.43 |
| Manchester United to score in both halves | 30.8% | 29.8% | 23.3% | 1.28× | 3.35 |
| Fulham to score in both halves | 22.7% | 21.8% | 31.4% | 0.70× | 4.58 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 61.6% | 60.1% | 58.1% | 1.03× | 1.66 |
| Only Manchester United scores | 20.8% | 22.2% | 16.9% | 1.32× | 4.50 |
| Only Fulham scores | 13.2% | 11.0% | 20.2% | 0.55× | 9.07 |
| Neither team scores | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.93× | 21.52 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.4% | 22.6% | 23.2% | 0.98× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 21.5% | 22.6% | 23.3% | 0.97× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.4% | 17.4% | 18.4% | 0.95× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 13.8% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 0.91× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 10.8% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 1.15× | 8.26 |
| 6 or more goals | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 1.14× | 13.12 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.90× | 22.34 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.6% | 36.9% | 36.3% | 1.01× | 2.71 |
| No goals in 1st half | 33.4% | 36.1% | 27.8% | 1.30× | 2.77 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 20.1% | 21.5% | 23.2% | 0.93× | 4.64 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 9.9% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 0.59× | 13.35 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 59.9% | 53.4% | 54.3% | 0.98× | 1.87 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 26.8% | 29.7% | 30.5% | 0.97× | 3.37 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 13.3% | 14.6% | 15.3% | 0.95× | 6.87 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham not to win both halves | 93.1% | 94.0% | 86.6% | 1.09× | 1.06 |
| Manchester United not to win both halves | 86.9% | 88.0% | 91.2% | 0.96× | 1.14 |
| Manchester United to win both halves | 13.1% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 1.36× | 8.34 |
| Fulham to win both halves | 6.9% | 6.0% | 13.4% | 0.45× | 16.75 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win either half | 59.9% | 59.6% | 48.6% | 1.23× | 1.68 |
| Fulham to win neither half | 54.3% | 54.5% | 41.3% | 1.32× | 1.84 |
| Fulham to win either half | 45.7% | 45.5% | 58.7% | 0.77× | 2.20 |
| Manchester United to win neither half | 40.1% | 40.4% | 51.4% | 0.79× | 2.47 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham not to win to nil | 86.9% | 88.1% | 79.8% | 1.10× | 1.14 |
| Manchester United not to win to nil | 79.2% | 78.2% | 83.1% | 0.94× | 1.28 |
| Manchester United to win to nil | 20.8% | 21.8% | 16.9% | 1.29× | 4.58 |
| Fulham to win to nil | 13.2% | 11.9% | 20.2% | 0.59× | 8.42 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.1% | 24.9% | 0.97× | 4.15 |
| Manchester United by 1 | 21.5% | 24.1% | 16.7% | 1.45× | 4.15 |
| Fulham by 1 | 17.0% | 17.0% | 19.0% | 0.89× | 5.89 |
| Manchester United by 2 | 13.9% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.27× | 8.49 |
| Manchester United by 3+ | 10.7% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 1.79× | 8.50 |
| Fulham by 2 | 8.7% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 0.55× | 13.87 |
| Fulham by 3+ | 4.8% | 2.7% | 10.8% | 0.25× | 36.66 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.72 xGManchester United 2.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Fulham |
Gonzalo García | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 8' |
 Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 9' |
Manchester United |
Lisandro Martínez | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Manchester United |
Lisandro Martínez | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 17' |
Fulham |
Gonzalo García | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 19' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Affengruber |
| 20' |
Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 23' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 24' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Matheus Cunha |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 27' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 28' |
Fulham |
Gonzalo García | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 28' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 29' |
Fulham |
Oscar Bobb | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 31' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 33' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 33' |
Manchester United |
Youri Tielemans | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 35' |
Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 38' |
Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 41' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gonzalo García |
| 43' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 43' |
Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 60' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sander Berge |
| 62' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Manchester United |
Lisandro Martínez | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 66' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 67' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 69' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 71' |
Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lisandro Martínez |
| 74' |
Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | César Palacios |
| 77' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Zirkzee |
| 80' |
Manchester United |
Lisandro Martínez | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Patrick Dorgu |
| 90' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Maguire |
| 92' |
Manchester United |
Lisandro Martínez | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.62 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Shea Charles DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.38 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1.03 |
| Gonzalo García FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.97 |
| Joshua King AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1.38 |
| Alex Iwobi AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.44 | 0.96 | 1.60 |
| Oscar Bobb AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Kevin Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| César Palacios Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Hugo Larsson Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joachim Andersen Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.15 | 0.92 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.59 | 1.45 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.59 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1.10 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.46 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.70 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.83 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0.68 | 0.16 | 0.92 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Patrick Dorgu Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.02 |