Fulham v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 7
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.50 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.25 – -0.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
37.0%
Draw
28.8%
Newcastle United win
34.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 16.5 xG
conceded 12
from 14.6 xG
Newcastle United have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 18 from 17.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLDWDLWLL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 18
from 17.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.43–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.58 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.75 xGNewcastle United 0.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin |
| 9' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sander Berge |
| 14' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 18' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 19' |
Fulham |
Issa Diop | 0.40 | Set Piece | — | Goal | — |
| 23' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sander Berge |
| 27' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 31' |
 Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 32' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 41' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 46' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 48' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 61' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Castagne |
| 67' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 69' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Calvin Bassey |
| 73' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 74' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Cairney |
| 76' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 79' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Harry Wilson |
| 82' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sander Berge |
| 87' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 92' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Cairney |
| 93' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua King |
| 95' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 97' |
Newcastle United |
Sean Neave | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yoane Wissa |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Diop DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 0.99 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.64 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.37 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.69 |
| Rodrigo Muniz FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Oscar Bobb AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.63 |
| Kevin AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| Joshua King Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.35 |
| Harry Wilson Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Raúl Jiménez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jorge Cuenca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Willock MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lewis Hall DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jacob Ramsey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Dan Burn DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| William Osula FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Murphy DMR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Sean Neave Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alex Murphy Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |