Fulham v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Fulham

15:00 UTC

Newcastle United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 1,419h before kick-off

Fulham win

38.6%

model 39.7%

Draw

23.0%

model 24.3%

Newcastle United win

38.4%

model 36.1%

392338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (574 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
2-1 8.6%
1-2 8.2%
1-0 7.7%
0-1 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.7%	Under 2.5	42.3%
BTTS yes	60.3%	BTTS no	39.7%
Fulham 1+	78.6%	Fulham 2+	45.6%
Newcastle United 1+	76.8%	Newcastle United 2+	42.9%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.46. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Newcastle United or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT · usually 64%

78.8% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 870 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Fulham (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 84%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 382 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Fulham have created 1.39 xG a match over their last five while Newcastle United have allowed 1.91.
At home Fulham average 1.70 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Fulham have an estimated 38.6% win probability, against 38.4% for Newcastle United and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.54 for Fulham and 1.46 for Newcastle United.

Why Fulham

Fulham have created 1.39 xG a match over their last five while Newcastle United have allowed 1.91. At home Fulham average 1.70 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.54 to 1.46. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Newcastle United can win

Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1642 Elo against 1535. Newcastle United have created 1.43 xG a match over their last five while Fulham have allowed 1.86. Away from home Newcastle United average 1.01 xG a match.

Key players

Fulham's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonzalo García (0.46), Raúl Jiménez (0.36), Harry Wilson (0.27). Newcastle United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Guimarães (0.32), Nick Woltemade (0.30), Harvey Barnes (0.23).

Availability

2 of Fulham's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Fulham's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Newcastle United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Newcastle United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fulham: 60% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. Newcastle United: 50% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Fulham's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Fulham are the model's most likely outcome at 38.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDWLLDWLLL last 10 scored 8 from 13.9 xG conceded 14 from 18.6 xG

Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLLWDWLDWD last 10 scored 15 from 14.3 xG conceded 14 from 19.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402436	1.54–1.46	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	352936	1.31–1.31	1-1 14%	49%	54%
dc-xg	392437	1.51–1.47	1-1 11%	57%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to win	40.4%	43.0%	43.1%	1.00×	2.33
Newcastle United to win	35.5%	36.3%	32.3%	1.13×	2.75
Draw	24.1%	24.5%	24.7%	0.99×	4.08

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham & both teams score	22.1%	21.8%	22.9%	0.96×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	20.0%	0.90×	5.58
Newcastle United & both teams score	19.6%	17.9%	15.5%	1.16×	5.58
Fulham & not both score	18.3%	17.9%	20.3%	0.88×	5.58
Newcastle United & not both score	15.9%	17.9%	16.8%	1.07×	5.58
Draw & not both score	4.8%	4.9%	4.9%	1.01×	20.32

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham & over 1.5	32.9%	30.8%	36.7%	0.84×	3.24
Newcastle United & over 1.5	28.5%	26.0%	25.4%	1.02×	3.84
Fulham & over 2.5	26.9%	26.0%	30.2%	0.86×	3.84
Fulham & under 3.5	25.3%	26.0%	26.8%	0.97×	3.84
Newcastle United & over 2.5	23.4%	21.6%	20.0%	1.08×	4.63
Newcastle United & under 3.5	22.7%	21.6%	21.7%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.8%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.8%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Fulham & over 3.5	15.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Fulham & under 2.5	13.5%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.76
Newcastle United & over 3.5	12.8%	12.9%	10.7%	1.21×	7.76
Newcastle United & under 2.5	12.1%	12.9%	12.4%	1.04×	7.76
Fulham & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	6.5%	1.22×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	8.3%	7.9%	8.5%	0.93×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	8.3%	7.9%	8.5%	0.93×	12.65
Newcastle United & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	4.9%	0.99×	20.85

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (1UP)	58.3%	58.1%	62.1%	0.94×	1.72
Newcastle United (1UP)	54.2%	52.9%	51.4%	1.03×	1.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (2UP)	40.4%	47.5%	44.9%	1.06×	2.11
Newcastle United (2UP)	35.5%	37.0%	34.5%	1.07×	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to win 2nd half	40.5%	41.0%	36.3%	1.13×	2.44
2nd half drawn	31.8%	34.5%	30.9%	1.12×	2.90
Newcastle United to win 2nd half	27.7%	26.4%	32.9%	0.80×	3.79

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.2%	84.1%	79.8%	1.05×	1.19
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	55.4%	57.5%	0.96×	1.81
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	44.6%	42.5%	1.05×	2.24
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.8%	15.9%	20.2%	0.79×	6.29

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.5%	73.6%	75.3%	0.98×	1.36
Fulham over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	71.0%	58.4%	1.22×	1.41
Fulham under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	29.0%	41.6%	0.70×	3.44
Fulham over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.5%	26.4%	24.7%	1.07×	3.79

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (+2.5)	92.0%	92.1%	89.2%	1.03×	1.09
Newcastle United (+1.5)	79.9%	78.4%	76.0%	1.03×	1.28
Fulham (+0.5)	64.5%	62.9%	67.7%	0.93×	1.59
Newcastle United (+0.5)	59.6%	57.0%	56.9%	1.00×	1.75
Fulham (-0.5)	40.4%	43.0%	43.1%	1.00×	2.33
Newcastle United (-0.5)	35.5%	37.1%	32.3%	1.15×	2.70
Fulham (-1.5)	20.1%	21.6%	24.0%	0.90×	4.64
Fulham (-2.5)	8.0%	7.9%	10.8%	0.74×	12.59

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to concede	79.3%	79.0%	78.4%	1.01×	1.27
Newcastle United clean sheet	20.7%	21.0%	21.6%	0.97×	4.75

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United clean sheet in 1st half	59.5%	58.6%	48.6%	1.20×	1.71
Newcastle United to concede in 1st half	40.5%	41.4%	51.4%	0.81×	2.42

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to concede in 2nd half	65.2%	66.4%	58.4%	1.14×	1.51
Newcastle United clean sheet in 2nd half	34.8%	33.6%	41.6%	0.81×	2.97

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United over 2.5 corners	83.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Newcastle United under 6.5 corners	71.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Newcastle United over 3.5 corners	69.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Newcastle United under 5.5 corners	59.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Newcastle United over 4.5 corners	55.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Newcastle United under 4.5 corners	45.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Newcastle United over 5.5 corners	41.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Newcastle United under 3.5 corners	30.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Newcastle United over 6.5 corners	29.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Newcastle United under 2.5 corners	17.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 3.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Newcastle United under 2.5 goals	81.8%	81.3%	85.0%	0.96×	1.23
Newcastle United over 0.5 goals	76.9%	76.2%	74.9%	1.02×	1.31
Newcastle United under 1.5 goals	57.0%	59.4%	60.6%	0.98×	1.68
Newcastle United over 1.5 goals	43.0%	40.6%	39.4%	1.03×	2.46
Newcastle United under 0.5 goals	23.1%	23.8%	25.1%	0.95×	4.21
Newcastle United over 2.5 goals	18.2%	18.7%	15.0%	1.24×	5.36
Newcastle United over 3.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	5.5%	1.41×	13.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 1st half	86.2%	88.9%	89.2%	1.00×	1.13
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 1st half	52.4%	55.7%	59.4%	0.94×	1.80
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 1st half	47.6%	44.3%	40.6%	1.09×	2.26
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 1st half	13.8%	11.1%	10.8%	1.02×	9.02

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United scores equally in both	37.1%	36.4%	37.6%	0.97×	2.75
Newcastle United scores more in 2nd half	36.5%	36.4%	40.5%	0.90×	2.75
Newcastle United scores more in 1st half	26.4%	26.1%	21.9%	1.19×	3.83

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (away no bet)	62.7%	62.0%	63.5%	0.98×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	37.3%	38.0%	36.5%	1.04×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United even goals	52.7%	52.8%	53.7%	0.98×	1.89
Newcastle United odd goals	47.3%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.8%	82.9%	80.1%	1.03×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.2%	17.1%	19.9%	0.86×	5.85

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.2%	67.2%	70.2%	0.96×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.8%	32.8%	29.8%	1.10×	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.1%	59.9%	61.4%	0.97×	1.67
Fulham to score 2+ in a row	36.7%	36.5%	39.1%	0.93×	2.74
Newcastle United to score 2+ in a row	32.9%	29.1%	29.9%	0.97×	3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.8%	19.5%	26.2%	0.74×	5.13
Fulham to score 3+ in a row	12.8%	12.2%	16.5%	0.74×	8.23
Newcastle United to score 3+ in a row	10.5%	12.1%	10.2%	1.19×	8.27

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham corners (+3.5)	83.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Newcastle United corners (+3.5)	77.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fulham corners (+2.5)	77.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Newcastle United corners (+2.5)	69.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Fulham corners (+1.5)	68.9%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Newcastle United corners (+1.5)	60.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Fulham corners (-1.5)	39.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Newcastle United corners (-1.5)	31.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Fulham corners (-2.5)	30.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Newcastle United corners (-2.5)	22.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fulham corners (-3.5)	22.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Newcastle United corners (-3.5)	16.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	40.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
0-8 corners	30.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	69.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	67.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 9.5 corners	60.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	59.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	50.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	49.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	40.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 9.5 corners	40.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	32.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	30.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	21.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.0%	11.4%	11.5%	0.99×	8.74
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.50
0-1	7.0%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.50
1-0	7.5%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.50
1-2	8.1%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.50
0-2	5.1%	7.4%	5.5%	1.34×	13.50
2-0	5.9%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.50
2-2	6.4%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.50
0-0	4.8%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.29
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.31
1-3	3.9%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.30
1-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	58.31
2-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.51×	58.31
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.30
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.29
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.35×	58.32
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.26×	58.31
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.26×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.02×	58.32
Any other score	3.9%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (2nd half DNB)	59.4%	60.8%	52.5%	1.16×	1.65
Newcastle United (2nd half DNB)	40.6%	39.2%	47.5%	0.83×	2.55

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United leading at HT (DNB)	57.1%	58.4%	40.4%	1.45×	1.71
Fulham leading at HT (DNB)	42.9%	41.6%	59.6%	0.70×	2.40

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham or Newcastle United (12)	75.9%	75.5%	75.3%	1.00×	1.33
Fulham or draw (1X)	64.5%	63.7%	67.7%	0.94×	1.57
Newcastle United or draw (X2)	59.6%	57.0%	56.9%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw at HT	75.3%	79.9%	63.8%	1.25×	1.25
Fulham or draw at HT	67.2%	66.3%	75.5%	0.88×	1.51
Fulham or Newcastle United at HT	57.5%	56.9%	60.6%	0.94×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham or draw (1UP)	64.5%	71.9%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Newcastle United or draw (1UP)	59.6%	62.9%	65.2%	0.96×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham or draw in 2nd half	72.3%	73.6%	67.2%	1.10×	1.36
Fulham or Newcastle United in 2nd half	68.2%	65.5%	69.1%	0.95×	1.53
Newcastle United or draw in 2nd half	59.5%	59.0%	63.7%	0.93×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.8%	61.6%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Neither half drawn	39.2%	38.4%	43.3%	0.89×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (DNB)	53.2%	50.9%	57.2%	0.89×	1.96
Newcastle United (DNB)	46.8%	49.1%	42.8%	1.15×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to score first	49.4%	45.7%	52.0%	0.88×	2.19
Newcastle United to score first	45.9%	45.5%	43.3%	1.05×	2.20
No goal scored	4.8%	4.3%	4.9%	0.89×	23.16

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.0%	56.5%	58.2%	0.97×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.0%	43.5%	41.8%	1.04×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.0%	44.3%	46.8%	0.95×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	30.4%	34.4%	30.0%	1.14×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.9%	79.9%	82.2%	0.97×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.1%	20.1%	17.8%	1.13×	4.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.6%	66.0%	68.9%	0.96×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.4%	34.0%	31.1%	1.09×	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.3%	55.8%	55.9%	1.00×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	29.4%	26.7%	24.6%	1.09×	3.75
Both score 1st half only	12.3%	10.7%	13.1%	0.82×	9.33
Both score in both halves	7.0%	6.8%	6.7%	1.02×	14.79

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.7%	82.4%	80.4%	1.02×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.3%	17.6%	19.6%	0.90×	5.68

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.3%	57.4%	61.9%	0.93×	1.74
A half without a goal	41.7%	42.6%	38.1%	1.12×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.5%	42.1%	46.6%	0.90×	2.38
4-6 goals	32.6%	30.7%	32.7%	0.94×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.3%	20.3%	18.1%	1.12×	4.93
7+ goals	3.5%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.52

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score exactly 1	33.9%	33.8%	35.6%	0.95×	2.96
Newcastle United to score exactly 2	24.8%	22.4%	24.5%	0.91×	4.47
Newcastle United to score exactly 0	23.1%	22.4%	25.1%	0.89×	4.47
Newcastle United to score 3+	18.2%	19.6%	15.0%	1.31×	5.10

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to score exactly 1	32.6%	32.6%	29.6%	1.10×	3.07
Fulham to score exactly 2	25.7%	26.5%	26.1%	1.01×	3.78
Fulham to score 3+	21.0%	23.2%	22.9%	1.02×	4.31
Fulham to score exactly 0	20.7%	23.2%	21.6%	1.08×	4.31

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.5%	43.1%	39.4%	1.09×	2.32
Newcastle United leading at HT	32.8%	33.7%	24.5%	1.38×	2.97
Fulham leading at HT	24.7%	20.1%	36.2%	0.56×	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham -1: 2	59.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Fulham -1: X	20.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Fulham -1: 1	20.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (0:1)	59.6%	55.8%	56.9%	0.98×	1.79
Fulham (0:1)	20.1%	24.3%	24.0%	1.01×	4.12
Draw (0:1)	20.3%	24.3%	19.2%	1.26×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (0:2)	79.9%	79.4%	76.0%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.1%	10.9%	13.3%	0.82×	9.17
Fulham (0:2)	8.0%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.97

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (0:3)	92.0%	92.6%	89.2%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.4%	5.8%	7.5%	0.77×	17.31
Fulham (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (0:4)	97.3%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	2.0%	0.58×	83.53
Fulham (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	83.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (1:0)	64.5%	65.2%	67.7%	0.96×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	18.9%	17.0%	16.6%	1.03×	5.88
Newcastle United (1:0)	16.7%	17.0%	15.8%	1.08×	5.89

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (2:0)	83.3%	84.6%	84.2%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.4%	10.4%	9.3%	1.12×	9.64
Newcastle United (2:0)	6.3%	6.4%	6.6%	0.98×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.9%	50.4%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
1st half highest scoring	23.6%	24.1%	25.8%	0.94×	4.15
Halves equal	22.5%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to concede	76.9%	76.0%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Fulham clean sheet	23.1%	24.0%	25.1%	0.96×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham clean sheet in 1st half	52.4%	55.7%	59.4%	0.94×	1.80
Fulham to concede in 1st half	47.6%	44.3%	40.6%	1.09×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to concede in 2nd half	55.9%	55.5%	57.5%	0.96×	1.80
Fulham clean sheet in 2nd half	44.1%	44.5%	42.5%	1.05×	2.25

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham over 2.5 corners	86.4%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Fulham over 3.5 corners	74.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fulham under 6.5 corners	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Fulham over 4.5 corners	61.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Fulham under 5.5 corners	52.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Fulham over 5.5 corners	47.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Fulham under 4.5 corners	38.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Fulham over 6.5 corners	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Fulham under 3.5 corners	25.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Fulham under 2.5 corners	13.6%	13.7%	—	—	7.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 3.5 goals	92.5%	92.2%	91.6%	1.01×	1.08
Fulham over 0.5 goals	79.3%	77.7%	78.4%	0.99×	1.29
Fulham under 2.5 goals	79.0%	77.7%	77.1%	1.01×	1.29
Fulham under 1.5 goals	53.3%	53.2%	51.1%	1.04×	1.88
Fulham over 1.5 goals	46.7%	46.8%	48.9%	0.96×	2.14
Fulham over 2.5 goals	21.0%	22.3%	22.9%	0.97×	4.49
Fulham under 0.5 goals	20.7%	22.3%	21.6%	1.03×	4.49
Fulham over 3.5 goals	7.5%	7.8%	8.4%	0.93×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 1.5 in 1st half	90.4%	95.2%	84.5%	1.13×	1.05
Fulham under 0.5 in 1st half	59.5%	58.2%	48.6%	1.20×	1.72
Fulham over 0.5 in 1st half	40.5%	41.8%	51.4%	0.81×	2.39
Fulham over 1.5 in 1st half	9.6%	4.8%	15.5%	0.31×	21.01

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham scores more in 2nd half	48.4%	47.1%	36.3%	1.30×	2.12
Fulham scores equally in both	33.7%	32.9%	37.5%	0.88×	3.04
Fulham scores more in 1st half	17.9%	14.4%	26.4%	0.55×	6.92

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (home no bet)	59.6%	56.7%	56.6%	1.00×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.4%	43.3%	43.4%	1.00×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham even goals	52.1%	50.6%	53.8%	0.94×	1.98
Fulham odd goals	47.9%	49.4%	46.2%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.1%	32.2%	27.6%	1.16×	3.11
HT 0-1	20.1%	24.1%	14.8%	1.63×	4.14
HT 1-0	16.2%	18.6%	21.8%	0.86×	5.37
HT 1-1	10.5%	10.9%	10.9%	1.00×	9.17
HT 0-2	6.5%	7.1%	4.5%	1.58×	14.04
Any other HT score	4.3%	2.3%	5.3%	0.44×	43.38
HT 2-0	4.2%	2.3%	8.1%	0.28×	43.40
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.46
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.3%	3.8%	0.61×	43.50
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	1.0%	2.24×	43.64

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United at HT / Newcastle United at FT	21.9%	21.7%	16.9%	1.29×	4.60
Fulham at HT / Fulham at FT	18.9%	16.8%	26.3%	0.64×	5.96
Draw at HT / Fulham at FT	17.2%	16.8%	14.0%	1.20×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.5%	12.7%	13.6%	0.93×	7.89
Draw at HT / Newcastle United at FT	11.8%	12.7%	12.0%	1.05×	7.90
Newcastle United at HT / Draw at FT	6.7%	6.0%	4.8%	1.25×	16.69
Newcastle United at HT / Fulham at FT	4.2%	3.5%	3.0%	1.16×	28.76
Fulham at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	6.6%	0.53×	28.77
Fulham at HT / Newcastle United at FT	1.8%	3.5%	3.5%	0.99×	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to score last	49.4%	46.8%	50.3%	0.93×	2.14
Newcastle United to score last	45.9%	46.7%	44.9%	1.04×	2.14
No goal scored	4.8%	4.3%	4.9%	0.89×	23.16

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.2%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Fulham to lead by 1 at any time	58.3%	55.1%	62.1%	0.89×	1.81
Newcastle United to lead by 1 at any time	54.2%	50.8%	51.4%	0.99×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.6%	50.7%	50.8%	1.00×	1.97
Fulham to lead by 2 at any time	27.4%	25.5%	29.9%	0.85×	3.93
Newcastle United to lead by 2 at any time	23.6%	19.6%	21.2%	0.92×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.8%	14.9%	21.2%	0.70×	6.71
Fulham to lead by 3 at any time	10.5%	10.4%	13.1%	0.79×	9.60
Newcastle United to lead by 3 at any time	8.4%	6.6%	8.1%	0.82×	15.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham most corners	49.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Newcastle United most corners	40.5%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.4%	87.4%	88.5%	0.99×	1.15
2-6 goals	77.1%	78.6%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.1%	78.6%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.9%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.4%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.0%	59.1%	59.8%	0.99×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.0%	59.1%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
3-5 goals	49.8%	48.6%	51.9%	0.94×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.5%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.4%	39.2%	41.6%	0.94×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.6%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.6%	35.3%	32.7%	1.08×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.4%	30.3%	28.8%	1.05×	3.30
5-6 goals	15.6%	18.7%	14.3%	1.31×	5.34
7+ goals	3.5%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.08

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham never behind	41.0%	48.2%	48.6%	0.99×	2.08
Newcastle United never behind	36.9%	44.6%	37.9%	1.18×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	51.0%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.7%	53.4%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.3%	46.6%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	52.0%	51.8%	1.00×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.0%	48.2%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.2%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.2%	92.2%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	80.8%	82.3%	82.9%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.7%	82.3%	81.9%	1.00×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	63.8%	61.7%	64.6%	0.96×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.6%	58.7%	58.5%	1.00×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.4%	41.3%	41.5%	1.00×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	36.2%	38.3%	35.4%	1.08×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	19.3%	17.7%	18.1%	0.98×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	19.2%	17.7%	17.1%	1.04×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.8%	7.8%	6.7%	1.15×	12.87
Under 0.5 goals	4.8%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.3%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.2%	92.4%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.9%	75.9%	79.1%	0.96×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.2%	75.8%	76.4%	0.99×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.4%	51.9%	53.9%	0.96×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.6%	48.1%	46.1%	1.04×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.8%	24.2%	23.6%	1.02×	4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.1%	24.1%	20.9%	1.16×	4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.8%	7.6%	7.5%	1.01×	13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.7%	2.8%	2.9%	0.95×	35.81

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.7%	89.0%	87.4%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.9%	69.1%	72.4%	0.95×	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.5%	69.1%	64.1%	1.08×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.5%	30.9%	35.9%	0.86×	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.1%	30.9%	27.6%	1.12×	3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.3%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.12

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.7%	82.8%	84.7%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.1%	77.6%	75.9%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.7%	54.2%	1.01×	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.3%	45.8%	0.99×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.9%	22.4%	24.1%	0.93×	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.3%	17.2%	15.3%	1.12×	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham not to score in both halves	73.6%	73.8%	68.7%	1.07×	1.36
Newcastle United not to score in both halves	73.4%	73.8%	76.8%	0.96×	1.36
Newcastle United to score in both halves	26.6%	26.2%	23.2%	1.13×	3.81
Fulham to score in both halves	26.4%	26.2%	31.3%	0.84×	3.81

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.0%	60.2%	58.2%	1.03×	1.66
Only Fulham scores	18.3%	16.0%	20.3%	0.79×	6.24
Only Newcastle United scores	15.9%	16.0%	16.8%	0.95×	6.24
Neither team scores	4.8%	4.7%	4.9%	0.96×	21.40

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.0%	17.4%	18.4%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.5%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.4%	12.1%	10.4%	1.16×	8.28
6 or more goals	8.8%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	4.8%	4.5%	4.9%	0.92×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.1%	36.5%	1.02×	2.70
No goals in 1st half	31.1%	35.8%	27.6%	1.30×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.2%	21.7%	23.4%	0.93×	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	11.3%	10.9%	12.6%	0.86×	9.21

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.9%	53.3%	54.2%	0.98×	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	28.8%	29.8%	30.6%	0.97×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	15.3%	17.1%	15.3%	1.12×	5.83

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United not to win both halves	90.9%	93.9%	91.2%	1.03×	1.07
Fulham not to win both halves	90.0%	93.9%	86.5%	1.09×	1.07
Fulham to win both halves	10.0%	6.1%	13.5%	0.45×	16.41
Newcastle United to win both halves	9.1%	6.1%	8.8%	0.69×	16.47

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to win either half	55.2%	59.4%	59.0%	1.01×	1.68
Newcastle United to win either half	51.4%	54.9%	48.5%	1.13×	1.82
Newcastle United to win neither half	48.6%	45.1%	51.5%	0.88×	2.22
Fulham to win neither half	44.8%	40.6%	41.0%	0.99×	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United not to win to nil	84.1%	83.1%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
Fulham not to win to nil	81.7%	83.1%	79.7%	1.04×	1.20
Fulham to win to nil	18.3%	16.9%	20.3%	0.83×	5.91
Newcastle United to win to nil	15.9%	16.9%	16.8%	1.01×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.1%	24.2%	24.7%	0.98×	4.14
Fulham by 1	20.3%	24.2%	19.2%	1.26×	4.14
Newcastle United by 1	18.9%	16.9%	16.6%	1.02×	5.91
Fulham by 2	12.1%	11.8%	13.3%	0.88×	8.49
Newcastle United by 2	10.4%	11.8%	9.3%	1.27×	8.50
Fulham by 3+	8.0%	7.2%	10.8%	0.67×	13.81
Newcastle United by 3+	6.3%	7.2%	6.6%	1.10×	13.81