Fulham v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 22 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-0.71 – -0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
44.6%
Draw
26.5%
Nottingham Forest win
28.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.07 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.71 xGNottingham Forest 0.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 7' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Fulham |
Kevin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge Cuenca |
| 16' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 17' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Murillo |
| 22' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 32' | Nottingham Forest | Douglas Luiz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 36' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 37' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 37' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin |
| 38' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 41' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 46' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 49' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 49' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 61' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 61' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 71' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 83' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Tete |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| John Victor GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Savona DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| Douglas Luiz DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James McAtee Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.44 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.67 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.70 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.64 |
| Jorge Cuenca DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kevin AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Joshua King Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Issa Diop Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonah Kusi-Asare Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |