Fulham v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 4
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-1.84 – -0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
32.2%
Draw
31.6%
Sunderland win
36.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.99–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.26–0.93 | 1-0 14% | 38% | 44% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 2.84 xGSunderland 0.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 16' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sander Berge |
| 22' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sander Berge |
| 25' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sander Berge |
| 28' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua King |
| 29' |
Fulham |
Sander Berge | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Calvin Bassey |
| 32' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Calvin Bassey |
| 36' |
Fulham |
Joachim Andersen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Calvin Bassey |
| 38' |
 Sunderland |
Bertrand Traoré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Trai Hume |
| 39' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 39' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kevin |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Roefs |
| 55' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 66' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 71' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 73' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Tete |
| 77' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 78' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 81' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 82' |
Fulham |
Joachim Andersen | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 83' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 85' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 91' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.37 | 0.17 | 1.52 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.55 |
| Ryan Sessegnon DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.10 | 0.77 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 1.52 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Kevin AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Joshua King AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| Samuel Chukwueze Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 1.32 |
| Harrison Reed Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothy Castagne Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Le Fée ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Trai Hume DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Isidor FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Bertrand Traoré MR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Chemsdine Talbi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brian Brobbey Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eliezer Mayenda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |