Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 13
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
15 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.34
Goals − xG
-0.33 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
43.4%
Draw
28.5%
Tottenham Hotspur win
28.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.61–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.46–1.20 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 2.33 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Tete |
| 9' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 33' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harry Wilson |
| 36' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 37' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Radu Dragusin | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 39' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Solanke |
| 39' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 45' |
Fulham |
Oscar Bobb | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 50' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 54' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 54' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 56' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 61' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 65' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Goal | Archie Gray |
| 67' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Radu Dragusin | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 74' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 79' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 85' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 85' |
Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 87' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Souza |
| 96' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.11 | 0.48 | 0.90 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.53 |
| Ryan Sessegnon DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.56 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Issa Diop DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Oscar Bobb AML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 76 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.03 | 0.74 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Samuel Chukwueze Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Joshua King Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jorge Cuenca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Palhinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Radu Dragusin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Archie Gray DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yves Bissouma MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Randal Kolo Muani FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Conor Gallagher MR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Xavi Simons ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Richarlison Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mathys Tel Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| Souza Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Kevin Danso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |