Fulham v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 10
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.28 – +2.66
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
59.0%
Draw
20.8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
20.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.07–1.13 | 2-1 10% | 62% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 0.72 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andreas Pereira |
| 10' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Lemina |
| 12' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Calvin Bassey |
| 16' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Antonee Robinson |
| 19' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kenny Tete |
| 21' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Gomes |
| 24' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Andreas Pereira |
| 30' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mario Lemina |
| 52' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matheus Cunha |
| 56' |
Fulham |
Andreas Pereira | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 69' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Alex Iwobi |
| 81' |
Fulham |
Adama Traoré | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Cairney |
| 81' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 84' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Gomes |
| 86' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | João Gomes |
| 91' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Muniz |
| 94' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Iwobi AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Reiss Nelson AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Andreas Pereira DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Harry Wilson Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Timothy Castagne Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.10 | 0.76 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.76 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Rodrigo Gomes DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Mario Lemina DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.84 |
| Nélson Semedo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt Doherty Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfie Pond Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |