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GAIS v AIK — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 2 November 2026 · SWE-Allsvenskan · 2627

SWE-Allsvenskan results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
GAIS win
43.0%
model 44.6%
Draw
28.5%
model 27.7%
AIK win
28.5%
model 27.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.2%
  2. 1-0 10.8%
  3. 2-1 9.0%
  4. 0-0 8.7%
  5. 2-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.546.4% Under 2.553.6%
BTTS yes51.3% BTTS no48.7%
GAIS 1+76.4% GAIS 2+42.3%
AIK 1+66.2% AIK 2+29.6%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out GAIS.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0255 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

GAIS have an estimated 43.0% win probability, against 28.5% for the draw and 28.5% for AIK. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for GAIS and 1.09 for AIK.

Why GAIS

Nothing in the data singles out GAIS.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why AIK can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for GAIS, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for AIK, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

GAIS: 53% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. AIK: 51% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. GAIS's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

GAIS are the model's most likely outcome at 43.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.19–0.99 1-1 14% 37% 44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to win 39.8% 36.4% 40.7% 0.90× 2.74
Draw 30.6% 30.3% 22.9% 1.32× 3.30
AIK to win 29.6% 27.9% 36.6% 0.76× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS & not both score 25.2% 25.2% 23.7% 1.06× 3.98
Draw & both teams score 18.5% 17.9% 17.8% 1.01× 5.58
AIK & not both score 18.4% 17.9% 18.8% 0.95× 5.58
GAIS & both teams score 14.6% 13.3% 17.3% 0.77× 7.54
Draw & not both score 12.1% 13.3% 5.3% 2.48× 7.54
AIK & both teams score 11.2% 13.3% 18.1% 0.73× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS & under 3.5 31.9% 30.9% 26.2% 1.18× 3.24
GAIS & over 1.5 27.0% 26.0% 34.6% 0.75× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 26.2% 26.0% 18.1% 1.44× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 26.2% 26.0% 18.1% 1.44× 3.84
AIK & under 3.5 24.4% 21.7% 25.4% 0.85× 4.62
GAIS & under 2.5 20.8% 21.7% 15.5% 1.39× 4.62
GAIS & over 2.5 19.0% 18.0% 25.4% 0.71× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
AIK & over 1.5 19.1% 18.0% 27.7% 0.65× 5.56
AIK & under 2.5 16.0% 18.0% 14.0% 1.29× 5.56
AIK & over 2.5 13.6% 12.9% 22.9% 0.56× 7.77
GAIS & under 1.5 12.8% 12.9% 6.4% 2.02× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 12.1% 12.9% 5.3% 2.41× 7.77
AIK & under 1.5 10.5% 12.9% 9.2% 1.40× 7.77
GAIS & over 3.5 7.9% 7.9% 14.8% 0.53× 12.70
AIK & over 3.5 5.2% 7.9% 11.5% 0.69× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.5% 4.8% 5.1% 0.94× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.5% 4.8% 5.1% 0.94× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (1UP) 53.6% 52.7% 1.90
AIK (1UP) 44.4% 39.5% 2.53
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (2UP) 39.8% 37.3% 2.68
AIK (2UP) 29.6% 25.0% 4.00
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 41.0% 41.0% 2.44
GAIS to win 2nd half 32.1% 34.5% 2.90
AIK to win 2nd half 26.8% 26.3% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK (+2.5) 94.2% 92.1% 88.6% 1.04× 1.09
AIK (+1.5) 82.6% 82.4% 76.3% 1.08× 1.21
GAIS (+0.5) 70.4% 73.7% 63.4% 1.16× 1.36
AIK (+0.5) 60.2% 62.9% 59.3% 1.06× 1.59
GAIS (-0.5) 39.8% 37.1% 40.7% 0.91× 2.70
AIK (-0.5) 29.6% 26.3% 36.6% 0.72× 3.80
GAIS (-1.5) 17.4% 17.6% 23.7% 0.74× 5.69
GAIS (-2.5) 5.8% 7.9% 11.5% 0.69× 12.65
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK to concede 69.5% 72.6% 76.1% 0.95× 1.38
AIK clean sheet 30.5% 27.4% 23.9% 1.15× 3.64
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK clean sheet in 1st half 60.0% 58.6% 1.71
AIK to concede in 1st half 40.0% 41.4% 2.41
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK under 6.5 corners 83.3% 81.5% 1.23
AIK over 2.5 corners 75.5% 75.9% 1.32
AIK under 5.5 corners 72.8% 71.6% 1.40
AIK under 4.5 corners 58.6% 57.1% 1.75
AIK over 3.5 corners 58.3% 57.1% 1.75
AIK under 3.5 corners 41.7% 42.9% 2.33
AIK over 4.5 corners 41.4% 42.9% 2.33
AIK over 5.5 corners 27.2% 28.4% 3.52
AIK under 2.5 corners 24.5% 24.1% 4.16
AIK over 6.5 corners 16.7% 18.5% 5.40
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK under 3.5 goals 98.2% 97.5% 95.2% 1.03× 1.03
AIK under 2.5 goals 92.2% 92.3% 81.7% 1.13× 1.08
AIK under 1.5 goals 74.1% 72.0% 60.8% 1.18× 1.39
AIK over 0.5 goals 62.7% 63.0% 71.2% 0.88× 1.59
AIK under 0.5 goals 37.3% 37.0% 28.8% 1.29× 2.70
AIK over 1.5 goals 25.9% 28.0% 39.2% 0.72× 3.57
AIK over 2.5 goals 7.8% 7.7% 18.3% 0.42× 13.03
AIK over 3.5 goals 1.8% 2.5% 4.8% 0.51× 40.78
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK under 1.5 in 1st half 94.0% 94.2% 1.06
AIK under 0.5 in 1st half 67.4% 68.3% 1.46
AIK over 0.5 in 1st half 32.6% 31.7% 3.16
AIK over 1.5 in 1st half 6.0% 5.8% 17.34
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (away no bet) 56.5% 57.4% 64.0% 0.90× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 43.5% 42.6% 36.0% 1.18× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK even goals 56.9% 56.9% 53.2% 1.07× 1.76
AIK odd goals 43.1% 43.1% 46.8% 0.92× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.7% 92.4% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.3% 7.6% 13.20
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 48.7% 50.3% 1.99
Not both halves under 1.5 51.3% 49.7% 2.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 44.2% 38.4% 2.60
GAIS to score 2+ in a row 27.4% 25.0% 3.99
AIK to score 2+ in a row 20.2% 19.5% 5.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row 12.9% 12.2% 8.21
GAIS to score 3+ in a row 8.1% 5.7% 17.63
AIK to score 3+ in a row 4.9% 2.7% 37.61
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS corners (+3.5) 91.3% 89.6% 1.12
GAIS corners (+2.5) 86.1% 84.5% 1.18
GAIS corners (+1.5) 78.9% 74.9% 1.34
AIK corners (+3.5) 72.3% 70.7% 1.41
AIK corners (+2.5) 62.6% 61.9% 1.62
AIK corners (+1.5) 51.7% 52.5% 1.91
GAIS corners (-1.5) 48.3% 47.5% 2.10
GAIS corners (-2.5) 37.4% 38.1% 2.63
GAIS corners (-3.5) 27.7% 29.3% 3.42
AIK corners (-1.5) 21.1% 25.1% 3.98
AIK corners (-2.5) 13.9% 15.5% 6.45
AIK corners (-3.5) 8.7% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.5% 33.7% 2.97
12+ corners 31.4% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 31.1% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 76.8% 76.5% 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 72.9% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 68.6% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 62.5% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 59.0% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 51.5% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 48.5% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 41.0% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 37.5% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 31.4% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 27.1% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 23.2% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.1% 11.5% 13.0% 0.88× 8.73
1-0 12.8% 11.5% 6.4% 1.80× 8.73
0-0 12.1% 11.5% 5.3% 2.14× 8.73
0-1 10.5% 11.5% 9.2% 1.25× 8.73
1-2 6.6% 7.4% 8.1% 0.91× 13.48
2-0 8.0% 7.4% 9.4% 0.79× 13.48
2-1 7.9% 7.4% 5.9% 1.27× 13.48
0-2 5.5% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.48
3-0 3.2% 1.7% 5.3% 0.32× 58.47
3-1 3.1% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.47
3-2 1.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.48
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.49
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.49
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.48
4-1 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.12× 58.48
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.49
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.49
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.49
Any other score 1.1% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.48
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.48
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.49
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 4.8% 0.35× 58.48
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.49
2-2 3.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.47
2-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.48
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS leading at HT (DNB) 58.0% 57.9% 1.73
AIK leading at HT (DNB) 42.0% 42.1% 2.37
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw (1X) 70.4% 72.1% 63.4% 1.14× 1.39
GAIS or AIK (12) 69.4% 69.7% 77.1% 0.90× 1.44
AIK or draw (X2) 60.2% 63.6% 59.3% 1.07× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw at HT 78.7% 79.9% 1.25
AIK or draw at HT 70.6% 74.3% 1.35
GAIS or AIK at HT 50.8% 47.4% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw (1UP) 70.4% 80.0% 1.25
AIK or draw (1UP) 60.2% 71.5% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw in 2nd half 73.2% 73.7% 1.36
AIK or draw in 2nd half 67.9% 65.5% 1.53
GAIS or AIK in 2nd half 59.0% 59.0% 1.69
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 69.3% 69.6% 1.44
Neither half drawn 30.7% 30.4% 3.29
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (DNB) 57.3% 58.3% 52.6% 1.11× 1.72
AIK (DNB) 42.7% 41.7% 47.4% 0.88× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score first 48.0% 45.6% 2.20
AIK to score first 39.9% 33.0% 3.03
No goal scored 12.1% 10.0% 9.98
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 55.6% 54.9% 47.3% 1.16× 1.82
Both teams to score 44.4% 45.1% 52.7% 0.86× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 48.9% 44.3% 34.4% 1.29× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 30.3% 34.3% 39.9% 0.86× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 14.1% 12.3% 13.0% 0.95× 8.10
Not both score & over 2.5 6.8% 8.4% 13.2% 0.63× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 91.4% 89.1% 84.2% 1.06× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 8.7% 10.9% 15.8% 0.69× 9.17
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.7% 75.3% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.3% 24.7% 4.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 67.4% 62.2% 1.61
Both score 2nd half only 19.4% 15.7% 6.35
Both score 1st half only 10.3% 10.7% 9.34
Both score in both halves 2.9% 5.0% 20.13
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.8% 86.0% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 13.2% 14.0% 7.14
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 56.8% 57.3% 1.75
A goal in each half 43.2% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.1% 47.4% 49.1% 0.97× 2.11
0-1 goals 35.3% 35.0% 20.4% 1.72× 2.85
4-6 goals 16.9% 20.2% 26.2% 0.77× 4.96
7+ goals 0.7% 1.8% 4.8% 0.38× 54.73
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK to score exactly 0 37.3% 36.0% 28.8% 1.25× 2.78
AIK to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 32.3% 1.11× 2.78
AIK to score exactly 2 18.2% 19.6% 21.1% 0.93× 5.11
AIK to score 3+ 7.8% 8.5% 18.3% 0.46× 11.82
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score exactly 1 36.2% 35.6% 32.8% 1.08× 2.81
GAIS to score exactly 0 30.5% 32.6% 23.9% 1.36× 3.06
GAIS to score exactly 2 21.5% 23.2% 22.1% 1.05× 4.30
GAIS to score 3+ 11.8% 14.3% 21.6% 0.66× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 49.2% 52.6% 1.90
GAIS leading at HT 29.4% 25.7% 3.88
AIK leading at HT 21.3% 20.1% 4.98
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS -1: 2 60.2% 62.4% 1.60
GAIS -1: X 22.4% 23.6% 4.24
GAIS -1: 1 17.4% 17.5% 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK (0:1) 60.2% 61.4% 59.3% 1.04× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 24.3% 17.3% 1.40× 4.12
GAIS (0:1) 17.4% 17.8% 23.7% 0.75× 5.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK (0:2) 82.6% 82.8% 76.3% 1.08× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.7% 11.0% 12.5% 0.88× 9.12
GAIS (0:2) 5.8% 7.7% 11.5% 0.67× 12.96
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK (0:3) 94.2% 92.6% 88.6% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 6.9% 0.35× 42.07
GAIS (0:3) 1.5% 2.4% 4.8% 0.49× 42.20
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK (0:4) 98.5% 98.1% 95.2% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 3.8% 0.31× 83.54
GAIS (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.94× 83.65
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (1:0) 70.4% 72.5% 63.4% 1.14× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 18.5% 17.0% 20.4% 0.84× 5.87
AIK (1:0) 11.1% 12.8% 16.5% 0.77× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (2:0) 88.9% 88.4% 83.5% 1.06× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.0% 6.5% 10.4% 0.62× 15.48
AIK (2:0) 3.1% 2.3% 6.4% 0.36× 44.17
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.2% 49.8% 2.01
Halves equal 29.8% 26.6% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.0% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to concede 62.7% 63.4% 71.2% 0.89× 1.58
GAIS clean sheet 37.3% 36.6% 28.8% 1.27× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS clean sheet in 1st half 67.4% 68.6% 1.46
GAIS to concede in 1st half 32.6% 31.4% 3.19
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS over 2.5 corners 87.9% 86.3% 1.16
GAIS over 3.5 corners 76.4% 76.6% 1.31
GAIS under 6.5 corners 65.1% 66.6% 1.50
GAIS over 4.5 corners 62.5% 62.3% 1.61
GAIS under 5.5 corners 51.9% 52.8% 1.90
GAIS over 5.5 corners 48.1% 47.2% 2.12
GAIS under 4.5 corners 37.5% 37.7% 2.65
GAIS over 6.5 corners 34.9% 33.4% 3.00
GAIS under 3.5 corners 23.6% 23.4% 4.27
GAIS under 2.5 corners 12.1% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS under 3.5 goals 96.7% 96.4% 90.6% 1.06× 1.04
GAIS under 2.5 goals 88.2% 87.3% 78.4% 1.11× 1.15
GAIS over 0.5 goals 69.5% 67.9% 76.1% 0.89× 1.47
GAIS under 1.5 goals 66.7% 67.9% 56.5% 1.20× 1.47
GAIS over 1.5 goals 33.3% 32.1% 43.5% 0.74× 3.11
GAIS under 0.5 goals 30.5% 32.1% 23.9% 1.34× 3.11
GAIS over 2.5 goals 11.8% 12.7% 21.6% 0.59× 7.85
GAIS over 3.5 goals 3.3% 3.6% 9.4% 0.39× 27.47
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS under 1.5 in 1st half 90.6% 95.2% 1.05
GAIS under 0.5 in 1st half 60.0% 58.2% 1.72
GAIS over 0.5 in 1st half 40.0% 41.8% 2.39
GAIS over 1.5 in 1st half 9.4% 4.8% 21.02
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 50.8% 51.6% 38.5% 1.34× 1.94
AIK (home no bet) 49.2% 48.4% 61.5% 0.79× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS even goals 54.6% 50.6% 53.9% 0.94× 1.97
GAIS odd goals 45.4% 49.4% 46.1% 1.07× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 40.5% 40.5% 2.47
HT 1-0 20.5% 24.1% 4.16
HT 0-1 15.8% 18.7% 5.35
HT 1-1 8.3% 7.1% 14.03
HT 2-0 5.3% 7.1% 14.08
HT 0-2 3.1% 2.3% 43.38
Any other HT score 2.3% 2.3% 43.44
HT 2-1 2.1% 2.3% 43.46
HT 1-2 1.6% 2.3% 43.49
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.3% 43.58
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS at HT / GAIS at FT 22.6% 21.8% 4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 21.0% 21.8% 4.60
Draw at HT / GAIS at FT 15.4% 16.7% 5.97
AIK at HT / AIK at FT 15.1% 16.7% 5.98
Draw at HT / AIK at FT 12.8% 12.7% 7.89
GAIS at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% 16.73
AIK at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.5% 28.79
AIK at HT / GAIS at FT 1.7% 3.5% 28.90
GAIS at HT / AIK at FT 1.6% 3.5% 28.90
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score last 48.1% 46.7% 2.14
AIK to score last 39.8% 38.7% 2.58
No goal scored 12.1% 9.4% 10.62
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 87.9% 90.6% 1.10
GAIS to lead by 1 at any time 53.6% 50.7% 1.97
AIK to lead by 1 at any time 44.4% 39.3% 2.54
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 37.0% 34.8% 2.87
GAIS to lead by 2 at any time 21.9% 19.6% 5.10
AIK to lead by 2 at any time 15.1% 14.9% 6.72
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 10.9% 10.4% 9.58
GAIS to lead by 3 at any time 7.0% 6.6% 15.08
AIK to lead by 3 at any time 4.0% 1.7% 60.39
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS most corners 59.4% 55.5% 1.80
AIK most corners 30.1% 34.2% 2.92
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.5% 87.4% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.9% 83.5% 78.4% 1.07× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.3% 72.4% 64.1% 1.13× 1.38
2-6 goals 64.0% 63.4% 75.1% 0.84× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.3% 63.4% 71.8% 0.88× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.7% 59.2% 63.4% 0.93× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.8% 53.2% 42.0% 1.27× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.1% 48.7% 49.1% 0.99× 2.06
3-6 goals 36.4% 39.1% 48.3% 0.81× 2.56
3-5 goals 34.7% 35.4% 45.0% 0.79× 2.83
3-4 goals 30.1% 35.4% 36.6% 0.96× 2.83
4-6 goals 16.9% 18.6% 26.2% 0.71× 5.37
4-5 goals 15.2% 18.6% 22.9% 0.81× 5.37
5-6 goals 6.3% 8.7% 12.0% 0.73× 11.46
7+ goals 0.7% 2.5% 4.8% 0.53× 39.30
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS never behind 43.5% 48.3% 2.07
AIK never behind 34.3% 35.8% 2.80
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.9% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.1% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.4% 57.6% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 41.6% 42.4% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.5% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.5% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.6% 95.5% 91.9% 1.04× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 93.0% 92.3% 83.5% 1.11× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 87.9% 87.6% 94.7% 0.93× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 82.4% 82.4% 69.2% 1.19× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 64.7% 61.8% 79.6% 0.78× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 62.9% 61.8% 47.1% 1.31× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 37.1% 38.2% 52.9% 0.72× 2.62
Under 1.5 goals 35.3% 38.2% 20.4% 1.88× 2.62
Over 3.5 goals 17.6% 17.6% 30.8% 0.57× 5.68
Under 0.5 goals 12.1% 12.4% 5.3% 2.31× 8.10
Over 4.5 goals 7.0% 7.7% 16.5% 0.47× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 2.4% 4.5% 8.1% 0.55× 22.23
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.3% 97.2% 95.0% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.5% 97.2% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 92.2% 92.5% 80.7% 1.15× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 78.1% 75.9% 60.5% 1.26× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 51.2% 51.8% 72.2% 0.72× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 48.8% 48.2% 27.8% 1.74× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 21.9% 24.1% 39.5% 0.61× 4.16
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 7.8% 7.5% 19.3% 0.39× 13.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.5% 2.8% 8.9% 0.31× 36.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.7% 2.8% 5.0% 0.55× 36.20
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.6% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 76.9% 78.8% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 59.5% 62.8% 1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 40.5% 37.2% 2.69
Over 1.5 in 1st half 23.1% 21.2% 4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.4% 7.2% 13.86
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 86.4% 85.3% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 71.7% 77.7% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 63.5% 61.8% 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 36.5% 38.2% 2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 28.3% 22.3% 4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 13.6% 14.7% 6.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK not to score in both halves 85.4% 85.6% 1.17
GAIS not to score in both halves 80.3% 84.2% 1.19
GAIS to score in both halves 19.7% 15.8% 6.33
AIK to score in both halves 14.6% 14.4% 6.96
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 44.4% 46.6% 52.7% 0.89× 2.15
Only GAIS scores 25.2% 26.1% 23.7% 1.10× 3.83
Only AIK scores 18.4% 16.1% 18.8% 0.85× 6.22
Neither team scores 12.1% 10.9% 5.3% 2.05× 9.15
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.6% 25.0% 27.0% 0.93× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 23.2% 22.6% 15.3% 1.48× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 19.5% 17.4% 22.4% 0.78× 5.74
Exactly 0 goals 12.1% 12.1% 5.3% 2.26× 8.28
Exactly 4 goals 10.6% 12.1% 14.5% 0.83× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 4.6% 4.4% 8.7% 0.51× 22.65
6 or more goals 2.4% 4.4% 8.1% 0.54× 22.68
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 36.5% 39.6% 2.53
1 goal in 2nd half 35.2% 39.4% 2.54
No goals in 2nd half 28.3% 29.8% 3.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK not to win both halves 94.2% 94.0% 1.06
GAIS not to win both halves 90.4% 93.9% 1.07
GAIS to win both halves 9.6% 6.1% 16.37
AIK to win both halves 5.8% 6.0% 16.64
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK to win neither half 57.7% 59.5% 1.68
GAIS to win either half 52.0% 54.9% 1.82
GAIS to win neither half 48.0% 45.1% 2.22
AIK to win either half 42.3% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AIK not to win to nil 81.6% 83.0% 81.2% 1.02× 1.21
GAIS not to win to nil 74.8% 75.3% 76.3% 0.99× 1.33
GAIS to win to nil 25.2% 24.7% 23.7% 1.04× 4.05
AIK to win to nil 18.4% 17.0% 18.8% 0.90× 5.89
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 30.6% 27.6% 22.9% 1.20× 3.63
GAIS by 1 22.4% 24.1% 17.3% 1.40× 4.14
AIK by 1 18.5% 16.9% 20.4% 0.83× 5.91
GAIS by 2 11.7% 11.8% 12.5% 0.95× 8.48
AIK by 2 8.0% 7.3% 10.4% 0.70× 13.78
GAIS by 3+ 5.8% 7.3% 11.5% 0.63× 13.79
AIK by 3+ 3.1% 2.7% 6.4% 0.43× 36.98
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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