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Galatasaray v Alanyaspor — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Galatasaray win
70.0%
model 69.9%
Draw
19.3%
model 19.9%
Alanyaspor win
10.7%
model 10.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 12.8%
  2. 1-0 10.8%
  3. 1-1 9.5%
  4. 2-1 9.5%
  5. 3-0 9.4%

Goals

Over 2.556.2% Under 2.543.8%
BTTS yes47.2% BTTS no52.8%
Galatasaray 1+88.9% Galatasaray 2+64.5%
Alanyaspor 1+52.1% Alanyaspor 2+16.8%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Galatasaray (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 45%
68.8% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Galatasaray leading at HT (DNB)
DNB half time
84.4% fair odds 1.19
weak signal · 70 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Galatasaray carry the stronger rating, 1733 Elo against 1487.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Galatasaray have an estimated 70.0% win probability, against 19.3% for the draw and 10.7% for Alanyaspor. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.20 for Galatasaray and 0.74 for Alanyaspor.

Why Galatasaray

Galatasaray carry the stronger rating, 1733 Elo against 1487. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.3%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Alanyaspor can win

Nothing in the data singles out Alanyaspor.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Galatasaray, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Alanyaspor, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Galatasaray: 49% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Alanyaspor: 41% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Galatasaray are the model's most likely outcome at 70.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.20–0.74 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.14–0.77 2-0 13% 56% 48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray to win 68.0% 64.8% 45.4% 1.43× 1.54
Draw 20.8% 24.5% 25.9% 0.94× 4.09
Alanyaspor to win 11.2% 13.4% 28.9% 0.46× 7.46
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray & not both score 40.0% 40.0% 22.4% 1.79× 2.50
Galatasaray & both teams score 28.0% 25.2% 23.1% 1.09× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 14.4% 13.3% 18.1% 0.73× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.4% 8.3% 8.0% 1.05× 12.01
Alanyaspor & both teams score 5.8% 8.3% 14.6% 0.57× 12.01
Alanyaspor & not both score 5.3% 8.3% 14.4% 0.58× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray & over 1.5 57.3% 54.8% 36.2% 1.51× 1.82
Galatasaray & over 2.5 44.8% 40.3% 30.3% 1.33× 2.48
Galatasaray & under 3.5 41.8% 40.3% 29.5% 1.37× 2.48
Galatasaray & over 3.5 26.2% 26.0% 16.1% 1.62× 3.84
Galatasaray & under 2.5 23.3% 21.6% 15.2% 1.42× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 16.4% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 16.4% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.4% 12.8% 18.1% 0.71× 7.79
Galatasaray & under 1.5 10.8% 12.8% 9.3% 1.38× 7.79
Alanyaspor & under 3.5 8.7% 7.9% 19.6% 0.40× 12.63
Alanyaspor & over 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 22.4% 0.35× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.4% 7.9% 8.0% 1.00× 12.63
Alanyaspor & over 2.5 6.3% 7.9% 18.1% 0.44× 12.63
Alanyaspor & under 2.5 4.8% 4.8% 10.9% 0.44× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 4.4% 4.8% 5.7% 0.84× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 4.4% 4.8% 5.7% 0.84× 20.81
Alanyaspor & under 1.5 3.2% 4.8% 6.6% 0.72× 20.82
Alanyaspor & over 3.5 2.5% 4.8% 9.4% 0.51× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (1UP) 78.1% 78.5% — — 1.28
Alanyaspor (1UP) 27.7% 26.7% — — 3.75
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (2UP) 68.0% 68.2% — — 1.47
Alanyaspor (2UP) 11.2% 13.7% — — 7.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray to win 2nd half 55.0% 60.8% — — 1.64
2nd half drawn 31.3% 34.0% — — 2.94
Alanyaspor to win 2nd half 13.6% 11.3% — — 8.87
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 1.5 in 2nd half 92.2% 91.7% — — 1.09
Alanyaspor under 0.5 in 2nd half 63.2% 60.3% — — 1.66
Alanyaspor over 0.5 in 2nd half 36.8% 39.7% — — 2.52
Alanyaspor over 1.5 in 2nd half 7.8% 8.3% — — 12.09
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray over 0.5 in 2nd half 70.4% 74.3% — — 1.35
Galatasaray under 1.5 in 2nd half 65.6% 70.6% — — 1.42
Galatasaray over 1.5 in 2nd half 34.4% 29.4% — — 3.40
Galatasaray under 0.5 in 2nd half 29.6% 25.7% — — 3.89
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (+0.5) 88.8% 88.5% 71.1% 1.24× 1.13
Alanyaspor (+2.5) 76.3% 78.5% 90.0% 0.87× 1.27
Galatasaray (-0.5) 68.0% 68.7% 45.4% 1.51× 1.46
Alanyaspor (+1.5) 55.3% 57.0% 78.5% 0.73× 1.75
Galatasaray (-1.5) 44.7% 43.0% 21.5% 2.00× 2.33
Alanyaspor (+0.5) 32.0% 31.3% 54.6% 0.57× 3.19
Galatasaray (-2.5) 23.7% 21.5% 10.0% 2.15× 4.65
Alanyaspor (-0.5) 11.2% 11.5% 28.9% 0.40× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede 88.2% 86.3% 77.8% 1.11× 1.16
Alanyaspor clean sheet 11.8% 13.7% 22.2% 0.62× 7.30
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede in 1st half 60.1% 64.5% — — 1.55
Alanyaspor clean sheet in 1st half 39.9% 35.5% — — 2.82
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede in 2nd half 70.4% 71.1% — — 1.41
Alanyaspor clean sheet in 2nd half 29.6% 28.9% — — 3.46
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 6.5 corners 93.1% 89.9% — — 1.11
Alanyaspor under 5.5 corners 86.7% 85.2% — — 1.17
Alanyaspor under 4.5 corners 76.2% 76.0% — — 1.32
Alanyaspor under 3.5 corners 60.7% 61.7% — — 1.62
Alanyaspor over 2.5 corners 58.9% 57.2% — — 1.75
Alanyaspor under 2.5 corners 41.1% 42.8% — — 2.34
Alanyaspor over 3.5 corners 39.3% 38.3% — — 2.61
Alanyaspor over 4.5 corners 23.8% 24.0% — — 4.17
Alanyaspor over 5.5 corners 13.3% 14.8% — — 6.77
Alanyaspor over 6.5 corners 6.9% 10.1% — — 9.90
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 3.5 goals 99.2% 97.5% 95.3% 1.02× 1.03
Alanyaspor under 2.5 goals 95.7% 97.5% 86.2% 1.13× 1.03
Alanyaspor under 1.5 goals 82.1% 81.5% 65.2% 1.25× 1.23
Alanyaspor over 0.5 goals 53.5% 53.5% 69.8% 0.77× 1.87
Alanyaspor under 0.5 goals 46.5% 46.5% 30.2% 1.54× 2.15
Alanyaspor over 1.5 goals 17.9% 18.5% 34.8% 0.53× 5.41
Alanyaspor over 2.5 goals 4.3% 2.5% 13.8% 0.18× 39.75
Alanyaspor over 3.5 goals 0.8% 2.5% 4.7% 0.53× 39.93
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 1.5 in 1st half 96.2% 96.1% — — 1.04
Alanyaspor under 0.5 in 1st half 73.6% 68.1% — — 1.47
Alanyaspor over 0.5 in 1st half 26.4% 31.9% — — 3.14
Alanyaspor over 1.5 in 1st half 3.8% 3.9% — — 25.49
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor scores equally in both 53.3% 51.4% — — 1.95
Alanyaspor scores more in 2nd half 28.9% 26.6% — — 3.76
Alanyaspor scores more in 1st half 17.8% 18.1% — — 5.54
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (away no bet) 76.6% 73.4% 63.6% 1.15× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 23.4% 26.6% 36.4% 0.73× 3.76
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor even goals 60.8% 59.1% 54.5% 1.08× 1.69
Alanyaspor odd goals 39.2% 40.9% 45.5% 0.90× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.7% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.3% 16.8% — — 5.94
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 67.8% 67.9% — — 1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals 32.2% 32.1% — — 3.11
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 63.6% 60.0% — — 1.67
Galatasaray to score 2+ in a row 56.8% 54.9% — — 1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row 30.1% 28.8% — — 3.47
Galatasaray to score 3+ in a row 28.4% 25.0% — — 4.00
Alanyaspor to score 2+ in a row 11.3% 12.1% — — 8.25
Alanyaspor to score 3+ in a row 1.9% 2.5% — — 39.82
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray corners (+3.5) 94.3% 89.6% — — 1.12
Galatasaray corners (+2.5) 89.8% 84.5% — — 1.18
Galatasaray corners (+1.5) 83.1% 79.8% — — 1.25
Alanyaspor corners (+3.5) 73.1% 70.8% — — 1.41
Alanyaspor corners (+2.5) 62.3% 61.9% — — 1.62
Alanyaspor corners (+1.5) 50.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Galatasaray corners (-1.5) 49.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
Galatasaray corners (-2.5) 37.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
Galatasaray corners (-3.5) 26.9% 29.2% — — 3.42
Alanyaspor corners (-1.5) 16.9% 20.2% — — 4.95
Alanyaspor corners (-2.5) 10.2% 15.5% — — 6.45
Alanyaspor corners (-3.5) 5.7% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 59.2% 46.6% — — 2.15
9-11 corners 26.0% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 14.8% 21.2% — — 4.72
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 90.2% 83.4% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 85.2% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 10.5 corners 78.4% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 69.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 8.5 corners 59.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 52.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 7.5 corners 47.4% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 8.5 corners 40.8% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 30.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 21.6% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 14.8% 16.9% — — 5.90
Over 12.5 corners 9.8% 16.6% — — 6.01
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 12.5% 11.5% 6.0% 1.90× 8.71
1-0 10.8% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.72
1-1 9.9% 7.4% 12.5% 0.59× 13.51
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.51
3-0 8.9% 7.4% 4.7% 1.57× 13.51
3-1 6.8% 7.4% 4.7% 1.57× 13.51
Any other score 6.7% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.51
0-0 6.4% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.51
4-0 4.8% 1.7% 1.8% 0.97× 58.29
0-1 3.2% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.30
0-2 1.6% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.31
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 58.32
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.46× 58.32
1-2 3.4% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.30
1-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.31
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.66× 58.32
2-2 3.7% 1.7% 4.6% 0.38× 58.30
2-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.31
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.94× 58.32
3-2 2.6% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.30
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.29× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 3.88× 58.32
4-1 3.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.30
4-2 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.46× 58.31
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 11.64× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (2nd half DNB) 80.1% 81.6% — — 1.23
Alanyaspor (2nd half DNB) 19.9% 18.4% — — 5.43
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray leading at HT (DNB) 80.8% 84.4% — — 1.18
Alanyaspor leading at HT (DNB) 19.2% 15.6% — — 6.43
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray or draw (1X) 88.8% 86.6% 71.1% 1.22× 1.16
Galatasaray or Alanyaspor (12) 79.2% 75.5% 74.1% 1.02× 1.32
Alanyaspor or draw (X2) 32.0% 35.2% 54.6% 0.64× 2.84
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray or draw at HT 88.2% 88.5% — — 1.13
Galatasaray or Alanyaspor at HT 61.5% 61.0% — — 1.64
Alanyaspor or draw at HT 50.4% 48.4% — — 2.07
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray or draw (1UP) 88.8% 92.3% — — 1.08
Alanyaspor or draw (1UP) 32.0% 39.1% — — 2.56
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray or draw in 2nd half 86.4% 88.7% — — 1.13
Galatasaray or Alanyaspor in 2nd half 68.7% 66.0% — — 1.51
Alanyaspor or draw in 2nd half 45.0% 39.2% — — 2.55
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 56.7% 58.8% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 43.3% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (DNB) 85.9% 87.0% 61.1% 1.42× 1.15
Alanyaspor (DNB) 14.1% 13.0% 38.9% 0.33× 7.70
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray to score first 68.9% 69.3% — — 1.44
Alanyaspor to score first 24.7% 23.2% — — 4.31
No goal scored 6.4% 7.5% — — 13.26
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 51.8% 51.3% 44.5% 1.15× 1.95
Both teams to score 48.2% 48.7% 55.5% 0.88× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 38.2% 38.5% 43.2% 0.89× 2.60
Not both score & under 2.5 34.6% 34.6% 33.7% 1.03× 2.89
Not both score & over 2.5 17.3% 21.5% 10.9% 1.97× 4.65
Both score & under 2.5 9.9% 8.3% 12.5% 0.66× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.7% 85.6% 83.4% 1.03× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.3% 14.4% 16.6% 0.86× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.7% 73.7% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 26.3% 26.3% — — 3.80
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 61.8% 65.8% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 22.2% 21.2% — — 4.71
Both score 1st half only 11.9% 10.7% — — 9.31
Both score in both halves 4.1% 4.9% — — 20.31
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.0% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.0% 16.5% — — 6.05
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.9% 57.0% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 42.1% 43.0% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.4% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
4-6 goals 30.3% 30.7% 28.4% 1.08× 3.26
0-1 goals 20.4% 22.9% 23.6% 0.97× 4.37
7+ goals 2.9% 1.8% 2.7% 0.70× 54.27
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score exactly 0 46.5% 42.9% 30.2% 1.42× 2.33
Alanyaspor to score exactly 1 35.6% 35.9% 35.2% 1.02× 2.78
Alanyaspor to score exactly 2 13.6% 12.9% 21.1% 0.61× 7.75
Alanyaspor to score 3+ 4.3% 4.6% 13.8% 0.33× 21.79
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray to score 3+ 36.1% 35.5% 22.2% 1.60× 2.81
Galatasaray to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.6% 23.9% 1.11× 3.77
Galatasaray to score exactly 1 25.2% 26.5% 32.0% 0.83× 3.77
Galatasaray to score exactly 0 11.8% 14.3% 22.2% 0.64× 7.00
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray leading at HT 49.6% 51.6% — — 1.94
Draw at HT 38.5% 39.0% — — 2.56
Alanyaspor leading at HT 11.8% 11.5% — — 8.66
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray -1: 1 44.7% 42.8% — — 2.34
Galatasaray -1: 2 32.0% 30.1% — — 3.33
Galatasaray -1: X 23.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (0:1) 44.7% 42.6% 21.5% 1.98× 2.35
Alanyaspor (0:1) 32.0% 30.1% 54.6% 0.55× 3.32
Draw (0:1) 23.4% 24.2% 24.0% 1.01× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:2) 55.3% 63.1% 78.5% 0.80× 1.58
Galatasaray (0:2) 23.7% 20.3% 10.0% 2.03× 4.92
Draw (0:2) 20.9% 20.3% 11.6% 1.74× 4.94
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:3) 76.3% 80.6% 90.0% 0.90× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 13.2% 9.9% 6.6% 1.49× 10.10
Galatasaray (0:3) 10.5% 9.9% 3.5% 2.79× 10.14
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:4) 89.5% 92.1% 96.5% 0.95× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 6.6% 4.6% 2.5% 1.85× 21.60
Galatasaray (0:4) 3.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.04× 81.47
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (1:0) 88.8% 86.2% 71.1% 1.21× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 7.7% 6.9% 15.9% 0.43× 14.49
Alanyaspor (1:0) 3.4% 3.3% 13.1% 0.25× 30.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray (2:0) 96.6% 96.8% 86.9% 1.11× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.7% 2.3% 7.8% 0.29× 43.76
Alanyaspor (2:0) 0.7% 2.3% 5.4% 0.42× 43.88
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.2% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 25.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray to concede 53.5% 53.2% 69.8% 0.76× 1.88
Galatasaray clean sheet 46.5% 46.8% 30.2% 1.55× 2.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray clean sheet in 1st half 73.6% 67.1% — — 1.49
Galatasaray to concede in 1st half 26.4% 32.9% — — 3.04
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray clean sheet in 2nd half 63.2% 59.8% — — 1.67
Galatasaray to concede in 2nd half 36.8% 40.2% — — 2.49
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray over 2.5 corners 80.3% 81.0% — — 1.24
Galatasaray under 6.5 corners 76.3% 76.5% — — 1.31
Galatasaray over 3.5 corners 65.5% 66.7% — — 1.50
Galatasaray under 5.5 corners 64.7% 62.3% — — 1.61
Galatasaray under 4.5 corners 50.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
Galatasaray over 4.5 corners 49.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
Galatasaray over 5.5 corners 35.3% 37.7% — — 2.65
Galatasaray under 3.5 corners 34.6% 33.3% — — 3.00
Galatasaray over 6.5 corners 23.7% 23.5% — — 4.26
Galatasaray under 2.5 corners 19.7% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray over 0.5 goals 88.2% 87.3% 77.8% 1.12× 1.15
Galatasaray under 3.5 goals 83.1% 82.2% 92.6% 0.89× 1.22
Galatasaray under 2.5 goals 63.9% 63.6% 77.8% 0.82× 1.57
Galatasaray over 1.5 goals 63.0% 63.6% 46.0% 1.38× 1.57
Galatasaray under 1.5 goals 37.0% 36.4% 54.1% 0.67× 2.75
Galatasaray over 2.5 goals 36.1% 36.4% 22.2% 1.64× 2.75
Galatasaray over 3.5 goals 16.9% 17.8% 7.4% 2.42× 5.62
Galatasaray under 0.5 goals 11.8% 12.7% 22.2% 0.57× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray under 1.5 in 1st half 76.5% 76.4% — — 1.31
Galatasaray over 0.5 in 1st half 60.1% 64.3% — — 1.56
Galatasaray under 0.5 in 1st half 39.9% 35.7% — — 2.80
Galatasaray over 1.5 in 1st half 23.5% 23.6% — — 4.24
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray scores more in 2nd half 43.0% 41.7% — — 2.40
Galatasaray scores equally in both 29.2% 27.8% — — 3.59
Galatasaray scores more in 1st half 27.8% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 65.1% 64.1% 47.3% 1.35× 1.56
Alanyaspor (home no bet) 34.9% 35.9% 52.7% 0.68× 2.78
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray even goals 50.7% 50.7% 51.0% 1.00× 1.97
Galatasaray odd goals 49.3% 49.3% 49.0% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.5% 28.5% — — 3.51
HT 1-0 26.8% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 2-0 12.4% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 0-1 8.8% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 1-1 8.4% 6.9% — — 14.53
Any other HT score 7.0% 6.9% — — 14.55
HT 2-1 3.8% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 0-2 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT 1-2 1.3% 2.4% — — 42.32
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray at HT / Galatasaray at FT 44.7% 41.3% — — 2.42
Draw at HT / Galatasaray at FT 20.6% 21.5% — — 4.65
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.2% 12.7% — — 7.89
Alanyaspor at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 5.5% 6.0% — — 16.53
Draw at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.85
Galatasaray at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% — — 28.87
Alanyaspor at HT / Draw at FT 3.6% 3.5% — — 28.89
Alanyaspor at HT / Galatasaray at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.92
Galatasaray at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 0.9% 3.5% — — 28.99
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray to score last 69.1% 70.4% — — 1.42
Alanyaspor to score last 24.4% 26.0% — — 3.84
No goal scored 6.4% 7.5% — — 13.26
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.6% 92.6% — — 1.08
Galatasaray to lead by 1 at any time 78.1% 78.1% — — 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 56.7% 54.9% — — 1.82
Galatasaray to lead by 2 at any time 50.4% 50.6% — — 1.98
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 27.7% 25.3% — — 3.95
Alanyaspor to lead by 1 at any time 27.7% 25.3% — — 3.95
Galatasaray to lead by 3 at any time 26.5% 25.3% — — 3.96
Alanyaspor to lead by 2 at any time 6.5% 6.6% — — 15.08
Alanyaspor to lead by 3 at any time 1.2% 1.6% — — 64.05
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray most corners 62.3% 60.6% — — 1.65
Alanyaspor most corners 26.3% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 11.4% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.1% 87.4% 85.4% 1.02× 1.14
2-6 goals 76.7% 78.7% 73.9% 1.06× 1.27
1-4 goals 76.7% 78.7% 75.4% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.1% 72.3% 69.8% 1.04× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.7% 63.3% 59.8% 1.06× 1.58
1-3 goals 60.4% 63.3% 61.3% 1.03× 1.58
3-6 goals 52.6% 53.2% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.1% 48.4% 47.3% 1.02× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.4% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
3-4 goals 38.6% 39.2% 37.3% 1.05× 2.55
1-2 goals 38.1% 39.2% 38.3% 1.02× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.3% 35.2% 28.4% 1.24× 2.84
4-5 goals 25.7% 30.2% 24.3% 1.24× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.0% 14.8% 14.3% 1.04× 6.75
7+ goals 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% 0.96× 39.14
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray never behind 65.9% 69.0% — — 1.45
Alanyaspor never behind 15.5% 18.1% — — 5.52
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.9% 50.9% 50.8% 1.00× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.1% 49.1% 49.2% 1.00× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.6% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.4% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.6% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.6% 92.3% 93.2% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.1% 82.3% 83.2% 0.99× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 79.6% 77.3% 76.4% 1.01× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 66.9% 66.3% 69.1% 0.96× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 55.5% 58.6% 53.9% 1.09× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 44.5% 41.4% 46.1% 0.90× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 33.1% 33.7% 30.9% 1.09× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 20.4% 22.7% 23.6% 0.96× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 16.9% 17.7% 16.8% 1.05× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 7.4% 7.7% 6.8% 1.14× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 8.0% 0.97× 12.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.0% 97.2% 97.2% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.8% 92.4% 92.5% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.8% 75.9% 80.4% 0.94× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 73.1% 72.4% 69.6% 1.04× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.3% 55.8% 59.8% 0.93× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 42.7% 44.2% 40.2% 1.10× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 26.9% 27.6% 30.4% 0.91× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.2% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.2% 7.6% 7.5% 1.01× 13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 1.02× 35.59
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.4% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.5% 71.3% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.2% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.8% 31.5% — — 3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.5% 28.7% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.6% 11.0% — — 9.10
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.0% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.3% 79.5% — — 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.3% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.7% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.7% 20.5% — — 4.87
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.0% 17.1% — — 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to score in both halves 90.3% 90.1% — — 1.11
Galatasaray not to score in both halves 57.6% 58.0% — — 1.72
Galatasaray to score in both halves 42.4% 42.0% — — 2.38
Alanyaspor to score in both halves 9.7% 9.9% — — 10.07
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 48.2% 50.7% 55.5% 0.91× 1.97
Only Galatasaray scores 40.0% 46.5% 22.4% 2.08× 2.15
Neither team scores 6.4% 7.1% 8.0% 0.90× 14.01
Only Alanyaspor scores 5.3% 7.1% 14.4% 0.49× 14.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.1% 22.6% 22.7% 1.00× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 16.3% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.0% 12.1% 15.8% 0.77× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 9.4% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.13
6 or more goals 7.4% 7.6% 6.8% 1.12× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 6.4% 7.6% 8.0% 0.96× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.6% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 29.5% 28.7% — — 3.49
2 goals in 1st half 22.2% 21.4% — — 4.67
3+ goals in 1st half 12.6% 10.9% — — 9.18
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.3% 51.1% — — 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 30.7% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 19.0% 16.8% — — 5.95
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to win both halves 98.3% 97.3% — — 1.03
Galatasaray not to win both halves 72.4% 73.6% — — 1.36
Galatasaray to win both halves 27.6% 26.4% — — 3.79
Alanyaspor to win both halves 1.7% 2.7% — — 36.52
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray to win either half 77.1% 79.6% — — 1.26
Alanyaspor to win neither half 76.2% 79.5% — — 1.26
Alanyaspor to win either half 23.8% 20.5% — — 4.88
Galatasaray to win neither half 22.9% 20.4% — — 4.90
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to win to nil 94.7% 92.1% 85.6% 1.08× 1.09
Galatasaray not to win to nil 60.0% 59.2% 77.6% 0.76× 1.69
Galatasaray to win to nil 40.0% 40.8% 22.4% 1.82× 2.45
Alanyaspor to win to nil 5.3% 7.9% 14.4% 0.55× 12.69
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galatasaray by 3+ 23.7% 24.1% 10.0% 2.41× 4.15
Galatasaray by 1 23.4% 24.1% 24.0% 1.00× 4.15
Galatasaray by 2 20.9% 24.1% 11.6% 2.07× 4.15
Draw 20.8% 24.1% 25.9% 0.93× 4.15
Alanyaspor by 1 7.7% 7.2% 15.9% 0.45× 13.91
Alanyaspor by 2 2.7% 2.7% 7.8% 0.35× 36.89
Alanyaspor by 3+ 0.7% 2.7% 5.4% 0.50× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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