Galatasaray v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 24 November 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Galatasaray

17:45 UTC

Aston Villa

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 751h before kick-off

Galatasaray win

38.5%

model 39.1%

Draw

23.2%

model 23.2%

Aston Villa win

38.4%

model 37.7%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
1-0 8.6%
2-1 8.5%
0-1 8.4%
1-2 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.2%	Under 2.5	43.8%
BTTS yes	58.5%	BTTS no	41.5%
Galatasaray 1+	77.3%	Galatasaray 2+	43.6%
Aston Villa 1+	76.6%	Aston Villa 2+	42.6%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.45. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

68/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

84%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 51%

62.1% fair odds 1.61

strong signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Aston Villa (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 68%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Galatasaray carry the stronger rating, 1733 Elo against 1670.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.84).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Galatasaray have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.4% for Aston Villa and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.48 for Galatasaray and 1.45 for Aston Villa.

Why Galatasaray

Galatasaray carry the stronger rating, 1733 Elo against 1670. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.48 to 1.45. Draws run at 15% in this competition.

Why Aston Villa can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Aston Villa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ollie Watkins (0.56), Nicolas Jackson (0.42), Johan Manzambi (0.32).

Availability

No lineup on record for Galatasaray, so availability is unknown. 1 of Aston Villa's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Aston Villa's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Galatasaray: 49% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Aston Villa: 46% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces. Galatasaray's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Galatasaray are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 68/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Aston Villa have scored 15 from 15.6 expected and conceded 16 from 17.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DWWLLDLWDW last 10 scored 15 from 15.6 xG conceded 16 from 17.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392338	1.48–1.45	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	252153	1.22–1.88	1-1 10%	60%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to win	53.4%	51.5%	33.7%	1.53×	1.94
Galatasaray to win	25.3%	27.9%	51.0%	0.55×	3.59
Draw	21.3%	24.4%	15.6%	1.57×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa & both teams score	27.8%	25.2%	18.4%	1.37×	3.97
Aston Villa & not both score	25.6%	25.2%	15.6%	1.62×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	17.4%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.57
Galatasaray & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	26.8%	0.50×	7.53
Galatasaray & not both score	11.4%	13.3%	24.5%	0.54×	7.54
Draw & not both score	3.9%	4.9%	5.1%	0.95×	20.58

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa & over 1.5	44.3%	40.3%	28.1%	1.44×	2.48
Aston Villa & over 2.5	36.3%	34.9%	23.7%	1.47×	2.87
Aston Villa & under 3.5	31.8%	30.8%	19.1%	1.61×	3.25
Aston Villa & over 3.5	21.6%	21.6%	14.8%	1.46×	4.63
Galatasaray & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	42.9%	0.42×	5.56
Galatasaray & under 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	26.8%	0.67×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.4%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.56
Aston Villa & under 2.5	17.1%	18.0%	10.2%	1.76×	5.56
Galatasaray & over 2.5	15.8%	18.0%	36.7%	0.49×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.6%	12.8%	10.5%	1.23×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.6%	12.8%	10.5%	1.23×	7.79
Galatasaray & under 2.5	9.5%	7.9%	14.5%	0.54×	12.63
Aston Villa & under 1.5	9.1%	7.9%	5.9%	1.35×	12.63
Galatasaray & over 3.5	8.2%	7.9%	24.5%	0.32×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	5.4%	1.48×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	5.4%	1.48×	12.63
Galatasaray & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	5.1%	0.94×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (1UP)	68.4%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Galatasaray (1UP)	44.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (2UP)	53.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Galatasaray (2UP)	25.3%	25.0%	—	—	4.00

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to win 2nd half	46.1%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
2nd half drawn	31.1%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Galatasaray to win 2nd half	22.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.9%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Aston Villa over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.6%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Aston Villa under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Aston Villa over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.1%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.6%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Galatasaray over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Galatasaray under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Galatasaray over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.4%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (+2.5)	96.8%	96.3%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Aston Villa (+1.5)	90.0%	92.1%	68.4%	1.35×	1.09
Aston Villa (+0.5)	74.7%	73.7%	49.0%	1.50×	1.36
Aston Villa (-0.5)	53.4%	52.4%	33.7%	1.56×	1.91
Galatasaray (+0.5)	46.6%	47.6%	66.3%	0.72×	2.10
Galatasaray (-0.5)	25.3%	26.3%	51.0%	0.52×	3.80
Galatasaray (-1.5)	10.0%	7.9%	31.6%	0.25×	12.66
Galatasaray (-2.5)	3.2%	3.7%	18.4%	0.20×	27.10

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede	70.5%	76.7%	79.6%	0.96×	1.30
Aston Villa clean sheet	29.5%	23.3%	20.4%	1.14×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa clean sheet in 1st half	59.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Aston Villa to concede in 1st half	40.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede in 2nd half	50.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Aston Villa clean sheet in 2nd half	49.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 6.5 corners	92.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Aston Villa under 5.5 corners	86.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Aston Villa under 4.5 corners	77.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Aston Villa under 3.5 corners	62.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Aston Villa over 2.5 corners	55.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Aston Villa under 2.5 corners	44.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Aston Villa over 3.5 corners	37.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Aston Villa over 4.5 corners	23.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Aston Villa over 5.5 corners	13.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Aston Villa over 6.5 corners	7.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.91

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 3.5 goals	87.8%	87.8%	92.3%	0.95×	1.14
Aston Villa over 0.5 goals	84.7%	81.5%	70.7%	1.15×	1.23
Aston Villa under 2.5 goals	71.0%	71.9%	79.1%	0.91×	1.39
Aston Villa over 1.5 goals	56.0%	59.4%	40.1%	1.48×	1.68
Aston Villa under 1.5 goals	44.0%	40.6%	59.9%	0.68×	2.46
Aston Villa over 2.5 goals	29.0%	28.1%	20.9%	1.34×	3.56
Aston Villa under 0.5 goals	15.3%	18.5%	29.3%	0.63×	5.40
Aston Villa over 3.5 goals	12.2%	12.2%	7.7%	1.59×	8.20

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 1.5 in 1st half	82.6%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Aston Villa over 0.5 in 1st half	52.8%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Aston Villa under 0.5 in 1st half	47.2%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Aston Villa over 1.5 in 1st half	17.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.94

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa scores more in 2nd half	44.4%	43.8%	—	—	2.29
Aston Villa scores equally in both	31.2%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Aston Villa scores more in 1st half	24.4%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (away no bet)	54.3%	51.7%	76.6%	0.68×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.7%	48.3%	23.4%	2.07×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa even goals	51.2%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Aston Villa odd goals	48.8%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.2%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.7%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.1%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Aston Villa to score 2+ in a row	46.8%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Galatasaray to score 2+ in a row	24.4%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Aston Villa to score 3+ in a row	19.6%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Galatasaray to score 3+ in a row	6.3%	5.5%	—	—	18.05

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray corners (+3.5)	95.2%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Galatasaray corners (+2.5)	91.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Galatasaray corners (+1.5)	86.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Aston Villa corners (+3.5)	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Galatasaray corners (-1.5)	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Aston Villa corners (+2.5)	52.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Galatasaray corners (-2.5)	47.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Aston Villa corners (+1.5)	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Galatasaray corners (-3.5)	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Aston Villa corners (-1.5)	13.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Aston Villa corners (-2.5)	8.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Aston Villa corners (-3.5)	4.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.40

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	51.8%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	21.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	61.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	51.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	38.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	29.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	21.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	9.1%	7.4%	5.9%	1.26×	13.51
1-1	9.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.50
1-2	9.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.50
0-2	8.0%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.51
1-0	6.1%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
1-3	6.1%	7.4%	2.8%	2.64×	13.51
2-1	6.3%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
2-2	5.9%	7.4%	3.8%	1.93×	13.51
Any other score	5.0%	7.4%	11.5%	0.64×	13.51
0-3	5.0%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.29
0-0	3.9%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.30
0-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.31
1-4	2.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.30
2-0	3.4%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.30
2-3	3.7%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
2-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.68×	58.31
3-0	1.4%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.31
3-1	2.6%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.30
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.34×	58.32
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (2nd half DNB)	66.9%	66.9%	—	—	1.49
Galatasaray (2nd half DNB)	33.1%	33.1%	—	—	3.02

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa leading at HT (DNB)	61.7%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Galatasaray leading at HT (DNB)	38.3%	34.3%	—	—	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray or Aston Villa (12)	78.7%	75.6%	84.4%	0.89×	1.32
Aston Villa or draw (X2)	74.7%	72.1%	49.0%	1.47×	1.39
Galatasaray or draw (1X)	46.6%	48.5%	66.3%	0.73×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or draw at HT	77.0%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Galatasaray or draw at HT	62.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Galatasaray or Aston Villa at HT	60.2%	61.3%	—	—	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or draw (1UP)	74.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Galatasaray or draw (1UP)	46.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or draw in 2nd half	77.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Galatasaray or Aston Villa in 2nd half	68.9%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Galatasaray or draw in 2nd half	53.9%	54.3%	—	—	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.3%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	40.7%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (DNB)	67.8%	67.4%	39.8%	1.69×	1.48
Galatasaray (DNB)	32.2%	32.6%	60.2%	0.54×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score first	58.3%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Galatasaray to score first	37.8%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.33

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.1%	55.0%	55.4%	0.99×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.9%	45.0%	44.6%	1.01×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.4%	44.3%	50.0%	0.89×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	30.4%	34.5%	29.3%	1.18×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	10.5%	12.4%	15.6%	0.79×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.7%	8.3%	5.6%	1.48×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.7%	82.6%	80.9%	1.02×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	19.3%	17.4%	19.1%	0.91×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.3%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.7%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.2%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	26.4%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Both score 1st half only	14.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	7.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.5%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.5%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.1%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	39.9%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.4%	42.1%	37.2%	1.13×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.6%	30.7%	37.5%	0.82×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.1%	20.2%	18.9%	1.07×	4.94
7+ goals	3.9%	1.8%	6.9%	0.27×	54.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score 3+	29.0%	27.4%	20.9%	1.31×	3.65
Aston Villa to score exactly 1	28.7%	27.4%	30.9%	0.89×	3.65
Aston Villa to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.4%	19.4%	1.41×	3.65
Aston Villa to score exactly 0	15.3%	19.6%	29.3%	0.67×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to score exactly 1	36.0%	35.6%	25.0%	1.42×	2.81
Galatasaray to score exactly 0	29.5%	26.6%	20.4%	1.30×	3.77
Galatasaray to score exactly 2	22.0%	23.3%	23.7%	0.98×	4.29
Galatasaray to score 3+	12.5%	14.3%	31.4%	0.46×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.8%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Aston Villa leading at HT	37.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Galatasaray leading at HT	23.0%	20.8%	—	—	4.82

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa -1: 1	46.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Aston Villa -1: 2	30.1%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Aston Villa -1: X	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:1)	74.7%	71.2%	49.0%	1.45×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	15.4%	17.8%	19.6%	0.91×	5.62
Galatasaray (0:1)	10.0%	9.3%	31.6%	0.29×	10.76

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:2)	90.0%	90.7%	68.4%	1.33×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.8%	7.7%	13.5%	0.57×	13.05
Galatasaray (0:2)	3.2%	3.7%	18.4%	0.20×	26.69

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:3)	96.8%	96.6%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	8.9%	0.27×	42.11
Galatasaray (0:3)	0.8%	2.4%	9.7%	0.24×	42.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:4)	99.2%	98.1%	90.3%	1.09×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	5.9%	0.21×	82.03
Galatasaray (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	4.1%	0.30×	82.08

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (1:0)	46.6%	49.1%	66.3%	0.74×	2.04
Aston Villa (1:0)	30.1%	29.9%	17.1%	1.75×	3.34
Draw (1:0)	23.3%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (2:0)	69.9%	71.1%	82.9%	0.86×	1.41
Draw (2:0)	16.1%	15.8%	7.9%	2.00×	6.34
Aston Villa (2:0)	14.0%	10.3%	9.4%	1.09×	9.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.8%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.0%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to concede	84.7%	81.0%	70.7%	1.15×	1.24
Galatasaray clean sheet	15.3%	19.0%	29.3%	0.65×	5.25

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to concede in 1st half	52.8%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Galatasaray clean sheet in 1st half	47.2%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to concede in 2nd half	67.6%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
Galatasaray clean sheet in 2nd half	32.4%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray over 2.5 corners	84.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Galatasaray over 3.5 corners	72.2%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Galatasaray under 6.5 corners	65.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Galatasaray over 4.5 corners	58.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Galatasaray under 5.5 corners	54.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Galatasaray over 5.5 corners	45.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Galatasaray under 4.5 corners	41.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Galatasaray over 6.5 corners	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Galatasaray under 3.5 corners	27.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Galatasaray under 2.5 corners	15.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray under 3.5 goals	96.4%	96.4%	83.9%	1.15×	1.04
Galatasaray under 2.5 goals	87.5%	87.3%	68.6%	1.27×	1.15
Galatasaray over 0.5 goals	70.5%	74.2%	79.6%	0.93×	1.35
Galatasaray under 1.5 goals	65.5%	67.9%	45.2%	1.50×	1.47
Galatasaray over 1.5 goals	34.5%	32.1%	54.8%	0.58×	3.12
Galatasaray under 0.5 goals	29.5%	25.8%	20.4%	1.26×	3.88
Galatasaray over 2.5 goals	12.5%	12.7%	31.4%	0.41×	7.85
Galatasaray over 3.5 goals	3.6%	3.6%	16.1%	0.23×	27.51

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray under 1.5 in 1st half	90.2%	94.5%	—	—	1.06
Galatasaray under 0.5 in 1st half	59.2%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Galatasaray over 0.5 in 1st half	40.8%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Galatasaray over 1.5 in 1st half	9.8%	5.5%	—	—	18.34

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray scores equally in both	41.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Galatasaray scores more in 2nd half	34.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Galatasaray scores more in 1st half	24.0%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (home no bet)	71.5%	66.8%	68.4%	0.98×	1.50
Draw (home no bet)	28.5%	33.2%	31.6%	1.05×	3.01

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray even goals	54.4%	50.7%	53.3%	0.95×	1.97
Galatasaray odd goals	45.6%	49.3%	46.7%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.8%	28.3%	—	—	3.54
HT 0-1	21.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 1-0	14.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 0-2	7.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
Any other HT score	5.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 1-2	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 2-0	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa at HT / Aston Villa at FT	30.9%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Draw at HT / Aston Villa at FT	18.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Galatasaray at HT / Galatasaray at FT	14.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.7%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Galatasaray at FT	9.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.55
Galatasaray at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Aston Villa at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.63
Galatasaray at HT / Aston Villa at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
Aston Villa at HT / Galatasaray at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score last	58.2%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Galatasaray to score last	37.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.33

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.1%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Aston Villa to lead by 1 at any time	68.4%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.2%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Galatasaray to lead by 1 at any time	44.5%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Aston Villa to lead by 2 at any time	37.6%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Aston Villa to lead by 3 at any time	17.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Galatasaray to lead by 2 at any time	15.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Galatasaray to lead by 3 at any time	4.7%	1.7%	—	—	60.23

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray most corners	69.4%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Aston Villa most corners	21.1%	25.8%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	9.5%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	81.4%	1.07×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.0%	78.7%	74.5%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.0%	78.7%	67.3%	1.17×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.4%	67.6%	1.07×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.7%	63.3%	53.6%	1.18×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.6%	59.1%	51.0%	1.16×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.0%	59.1%	58.7%	1.01×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.4%	53.2%	51.8%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.4%	43.6%	37.2%	1.17×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	37.8%	1.04×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.3%	39.2%	29.8%	1.31×	2.55
4-6 goals	33.6%	35.2%	37.5%	0.94×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.1%	30.2%	30.6%	0.99×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.3%	18.8%	21.2%	0.89×	5.31
7+ goals	3.9%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	39.05

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa never behind	51.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Galatasaray never behind	27.7%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	48.9%	50.9%	45.4%	1.12×	1.96
Odd number of goals	51.1%	49.1%	54.6%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.1%	95.4%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	86.2%	1.07×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	80.9%	82.3%	81.1%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.9%	77.3%	72.2%	1.07×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.5%	61.7%	55.9%	1.11×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	58.6%	65.3%	0.90×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	41.4%	34.7%	1.19×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	37.5%	38.3%	44.1%	0.87×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.1%	22.7%	27.8%	0.82×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	19.1%	17.7%	18.9%	0.94×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	13.8%	0.56×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	3.9%	4.6%	5.1%	0.90×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.9%	97.2%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.5%	86.7%	84.0%	1.03×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.8%	75.9%	77.6%	0.98×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.6%	75.9%	66.8%	1.14×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.7%	51.9%	44.0%	1.18×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.3%	48.1%	56.0%	0.86×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.4%	24.1%	33.2%	0.73×	4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.2%	24.1%	22.4%	1.08×	4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.5%	13.3%	16.0%	0.83×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.1%	2.8%	7.4%	0.38×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.3%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.20

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.1%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.5%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.5%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray not to score in both halves	79.5%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Aston Villa not to score in both halves	64.3%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Aston Villa to score in both halves	35.7%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Galatasaray to score in both halves	20.5%	21.4%	—	—	4.67

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.1%	58.7%	55.4%	1.06×	1.71
Only Aston Villa scores	25.6%	26.0%	15.6%	1.67×	3.84
Only Galatasaray scores	11.4%	11.0%	24.5%	0.45×	9.07
Neither team scores	3.9%	4.6%	5.1%	0.90×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	21.4%	1.05×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.0%	22.6%	16.1%	1.40×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.3%	17.5%	16.6%	1.05×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.2%	17.5%	14.0%	1.24×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	10.7%	12.1%	14.3%	0.85×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.4%	7.6%	13.8%	0.55×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	3.9%	4.5%	5.1%	0.88×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	22.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.2%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	15.9%	16.4%	—	—	6.10

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray not to win both halves	94.8%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Aston Villa not to win both halves	83.0%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Aston Villa to win both halves	17.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Galatasaray to win both halves	5.2%	5.8%	—	—	17.15

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to win either half	66.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Galatasaray to win neither half	59.3%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Galatasaray to win either half	40.7%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Aston Villa to win neither half	33.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray not to win to nil	88.6%	88.1%	75.5%	1.17×	1.14
Aston Villa not to win to nil	74.4%	75.4%	84.4%	0.89×	1.33
Aston Villa to win to nil	25.6%	24.6%	15.6%	1.58×	4.06
Galatasaray to win to nil	11.4%	11.9%	24.5%	0.49×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa by 1	23.3%	24.1%	16.8%	1.43×	4.15
Draw	21.3%	24.1%	15.6%	1.55×	4.15
Aston Villa by 2	16.1%	17.0%	7.9%	2.16×	5.87
Galatasaray by 1	15.4%	17.0%	19.6%	0.87×	5.87
Aston Villa by 3+	14.0%	11.8%	9.4%	1.25×	8.50
Galatasaray by 2	6.8%	7.2%	13.5%	0.53×	13.91
Galatasaray by 3+	3.2%	2.7%	18.4%	0.15×	36.80