Galatasaray v Fenerbahce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Galatasaray

18:00 UTC

Fenerbahce

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 31h before kick-off

Galatasaray win

51.1%

model 51.1%

Draw

22.2%

model 23.4%

Fenerbahce win

26.7%

model 25.5%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.1%
2-1 9.3%
2-0 6.6%
2-2 6.6%
1-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	66.9%	Under 2.5	33.1%
BTTS yes	66.7%	BTTS no	33.3%
Galatasaray 1+	87.0%	Galatasaray 2+	60.4%
Fenerbahce 1+	75.6%	Fenerbahce 2+	41.1%

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 40%

55.9% fair odds 1.79

strong signal · 764 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Galatasaray have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for Fenerbahce and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.04 for Galatasaray and 1.41 for Fenerbahce.

Why Galatasaray

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Fenerbahce can win

Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1761 Elo against 1733. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Galatasaray, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fenerbahce, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Galatasaray: 49% possession, 18.4 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fenerbahce: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Galatasaray are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	512326	2.04–1.41	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	552223	2.16–1.36	1-1 10%	68%	67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to win	54.7%	51.5%	45.4%	1.14×	1.94
Fenerbahce to win	22.8%	24.4%	28.9%	0.85×	4.09
Draw	22.4%	24.4%	25.9%	0.94×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray & both teams score	33.0%	29.6%	23.1%	1.28×	3.38
Galatasaray & not both score	21.7%	21.8%	22.4%	0.97×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.5%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
Fenerbahce & both teams score	15.2%	18.0%	14.6%	1.23×	5.57
Fenerbahce & not both score	7.7%	8.3%	14.4%	0.58×	12.01
Draw & not both score	3.9%	4.9%	8.0%	0.61×	20.58

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray & over 1.5	49.3%	45.1%	36.2%	1.24×	2.22
Galatasaray & over 2.5	42.4%	40.3%	30.3%	1.33×	2.48
Galatasaray & over 3.5	28.0%	26.1%	16.1%	1.62×	3.84
Galatasaray & under 3.5	26.7%	26.1%	29.5%	0.88×	3.84
Fenerbahce & over 1.5	19.7%	18.0%	22.4%	0.80×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
Fenerbahce & over 2.5	17.0%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.5%	12.8%	20.3%	0.63×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.5%	12.8%	20.3%	0.63×	7.79
Galatasaray & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	15.2%	0.85×	7.79
Fenerbahce & under 3.5	13.0%	12.8%	19.6%	0.66×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.9%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.9%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.63
Fenerbahce & over 3.5	9.8%	7.9%	9.4%	0.84×	12.63
Galatasaray & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	9.3%	0.85×	12.63
Fenerbahce & under 2.5	5.8%	7.9%	10.9%	0.73×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	8.0%	0.60×	20.81
Fenerbahce & under 1.5	3.1%	4.8%	6.6%	0.72×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (1UP)	71.2%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Fenerbahce (1UP)	44.7%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (2UP)	54.7%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Fenerbahce (2UP)	22.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to win 2nd half	45.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
2nd half drawn	30.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Fenerbahce to win 2nd half	24.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.3%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Fenerbahce over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Fenerbahce under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Fenerbahce over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.7%	15.9%	—	—	6.29

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.8%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Galatasaray under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Galatasaray over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Galatasaray under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.2%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce (+2.5)	82.7%	82.5%	90.0%	0.92×	1.21
Galatasaray (+0.5)	77.2%	78.5%	71.1%	1.10×	1.27
Fenerbahce (+1.5)	66.0%	68.7%	78.5%	0.87×	1.46
Galatasaray (-0.5)	54.7%	52.4%	45.4%	1.16×	1.91
Fenerbahce (+0.5)	45.3%	47.6%	54.6%	0.87×	2.10
Galatasaray (-1.5)	34.0%	31.3%	21.5%	1.46×	3.19
Fenerbahce (-0.5)	22.8%	21.5%	28.9%	0.75×	4.65
Galatasaray (-2.5)	17.3%	17.5%	10.0%	1.74×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce to concede	88.4%	86.3%	77.8%	1.11×	1.16
Fenerbahce clean sheet	11.6%	13.7%	22.2%	0.62×	7.31

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce to concede in 1st half	60.5%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Fenerbahce clean sheet in 1st half	39.5%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce to concede in 2nd half	70.8%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Fenerbahce clean sheet in 2nd half	29.2%	29.2%	—	—	3.42

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce under 6.5 corners	80.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Fenerbahce over 2.5 corners	76.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Fenerbahce under 5.5 corners	70.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Fenerbahce over 3.5 corners	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Fenerbahce under 4.5 corners	56.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Fenerbahce over 4.5 corners	43.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Fenerbahce under 3.5 corners	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Fenerbahce over 5.5 corners	29.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Fenerbahce under 2.5 corners	23.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Fenerbahce over 6.5 corners	19.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce under 3.5 goals	95.1%	97.5%	95.3%	1.02×	1.03
Fenerbahce under 2.5 goals	84.3%	81.5%	86.2%	0.95×	1.23
Fenerbahce over 0.5 goals	74.4%	71.9%	69.8%	1.03×	1.39
Fenerbahce under 1.5 goals	60.5%	63.2%	65.2%	0.97×	1.58
Fenerbahce over 1.5 goals	39.5%	36.8%	34.8%	1.06×	2.71
Fenerbahce under 0.5 goals	25.6%	28.1%	30.2%	0.93×	3.56
Fenerbahce over 2.5 goals	15.7%	18.5%	13.8%	1.34×	5.40
Fenerbahce over 3.5 goals	4.9%	2.5%	4.7%	0.53×	39.78

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce under 1.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Fenerbahce under 0.5 in 1st half	58.0%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Fenerbahce over 0.5 in 1st half	42.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Fenerbahce over 1.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.32

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce scores more in 2nd half	39.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Fenerbahce scores equally in both	38.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Fenerbahce scores more in 1st half	22.6%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (away no bet)	70.9%	68.3%	63.6%	1.07×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	29.1%	31.7%	36.4%	0.87×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce even goals	53.3%	52.6%	54.5%	0.97×	1.90
Fenerbahce odd goals	46.7%	47.4%	45.5%	1.04×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	73.8%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	26.2%	23.2%	—	—	4.31

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	78.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	21.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	69.6%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Galatasaray to score 2+ in a row	53.3%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	31.1%	29.1%	—	—	3.43
Fenerbahce to score 2+ in a row	27.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Galatasaray to score 3+ in a row	24.4%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Fenerbahce to score 3+ in a row	7.5%	5.6%	—	—	17.96

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray corners (+3.5)	86.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Fenerbahce corners (+3.5)	81.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Galatasaray corners (+2.5)	79.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fenerbahce corners (+2.5)	73.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Galatasaray corners (+1.5)	70.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fenerbahce corners (+1.5)	63.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Galatasaray corners (-1.5)	36.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Fenerbahce corners (-1.5)	30.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Galatasaray corners (-2.5)	26.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Fenerbahce corners (-2.5)	20.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Galatasaray corners (-3.5)	18.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Fenerbahce corners (-3.5)	13.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	24.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	66.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	65.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	56.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	34.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	33.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	24.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.6%	7.4%	12.5%	0.59×	13.50
2-1	9.4%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.50
2-0	6.9%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
3-1	6.8%	7.4%	4.7%	1.57×	13.51
Any other score	8.0%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.51
1-0	5.5%	7.4%	9.3%	0.80×	13.51
1-2	5.9%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
2-2	6.4%	7.4%	4.6%	1.62×	13.51
3-0	5.0%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.29
0-0	3.9%	1.7%	8.0%	0.22×	58.30
0-1	3.1%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.30
0-2	2.7%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.46×	58.32
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.7%	0.65×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.66×	58.31
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.65×	58.30
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.94×	58.31
3-2	4.6%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
3-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.29×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	3.88×	58.32
4-0	2.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
4-1	3.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.30
4-2	2.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.46×	58.31
4-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	11.64×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (2nd half DNB)	65.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Fenerbahce (2nd half DNB)	34.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray leading at HT (DNB)	67.7%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Fenerbahce leading at HT (DNB)	32.3%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray or Fenerbahce (12)	77.6%	75.6%	74.1%	1.02×	1.32
Galatasaray or draw (1X)	77.2%	75.6%	71.1%	1.06×	1.32
Fenerbahce or draw (X2)	45.3%	48.5%	54.6%	0.89×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray or draw at HT	79.4%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Galatasaray or Fenerbahce at HT	63.6%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Fenerbahce or draw at HT	57.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray or draw (1UP)	77.2%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Fenerbahce or draw (1UP)	45.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray or draw in 2nd half	75.7%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Galatasaray or Fenerbahce in 2nd half	69.8%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Fenerbahce or draw in 2nd half	54.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.5%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.5%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (DNB)	70.6%	71.4%	61.1%	1.17×	1.40
Fenerbahce (DNB)	29.4%	28.6%	38.9%	0.73×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to score first	58.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Fenerbahce to score first	37.2%	32.7%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.33

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.7%	58.4%	55.5%	1.05×	1.71
Not both teams to score	33.3%	41.6%	44.5%	0.93×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.1%	47.6%	43.2%	1.10×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	22.1%	27.8%	33.7%	0.82×	3.60
Not both score & over 2.5	11.2%	12.4%	10.9%	1.13×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	12.5%	0.66×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	74.9%	80.7%	83.4%	0.97×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	25.1%	19.3%	16.6%	1.16×	5.18

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.2%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.8%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	44.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Both score 2nd half only	29.8%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Both score 1st half only	15.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Both score in both halves	10.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	25.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	67.6%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
A half without a goal	32.4%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.8%	42.1%	45.7%	0.92×	2.37
4-6 goals	40.1%	42.1%	28.4%	1.48×	2.38
0-1 goals	12.5%	16.9%	23.6%	0.72×	5.92
7+ goals	6.6%	7.6%	2.7%	2.87×	13.14

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce to score exactly 1	34.9%	33.9%	35.2%	0.96×	2.95
Fenerbahce to score exactly 0	25.6%	27.4%	30.2%	0.91×	3.66
Fenerbahce to score exactly 2	23.7%	22.3%	21.1%	1.06×	4.48
Fenerbahce to score 3+	15.7%	19.6%	13.8%	1.41×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to score 3+	36.6%	35.6%	22.2%	1.60×	2.81
Galatasaray to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	23.9%	1.11×	3.77
Galatasaray to score exactly 1	24.9%	23.3%	32.0%	0.73×	4.29
Galatasaray to score exactly 0	11.6%	14.3%	22.2%	0.64×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray leading at HT	43.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Draw at HT	36.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Fenerbahce leading at HT	20.6%	20.7%	—	—	4.84

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray -1: 2	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Galatasaray -1: 1	34.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Galatasaray -1: X	20.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce (0:1)	45.3%	46.1%	54.6%	0.84×	2.17
Galatasaray (0:1)	34.0%	30.1%	21.5%	1.40×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	20.8%	24.2%	24.0%	1.01×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce (0:2)	66.0%	72.2%	78.5%	0.92×	1.39
Galatasaray (0:2)	17.3%	15.3%	10.0%	1.53×	6.54
Draw (0:2)	16.7%	15.3%	11.6%	1.31×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce (0:3)	82.7%	85.3%	90.0%	0.95×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	9.9%	5.8%	6.6%	0.88×	17.17
Galatasaray (0:3)	7.4%	5.8%	3.5%	1.64×	17.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce (0:4)	92.6%	94.5%	96.5%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.7%	1.2%	2.5%	0.49×	81.58
Galatasaray (0:4)	2.7%	1.2%	1.2%	1.04×	81.80

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (1:0)	77.2%	78.7%	71.1%	1.11×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	12.7%	12.7%	15.9%	0.80×	7.87
Fenerbahce (1:0)	10.1%	12.7%	13.1%	0.97×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray (2:0)	89.9%	88.5%	86.9%	1.02×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	6.6%	6.4%	7.8%	0.82×	15.70
Fenerbahce (2:0)	3.5%	2.3%	5.4%	0.42×	43.62

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.2%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to concede	74.4%	73.2%	69.8%	1.05×	1.37
Galatasaray clean sheet	25.6%	26.8%	30.2%	0.89×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray clean sheet in 1st half	58.0%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Galatasaray to concede in 1st half	42.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to concede in 2nd half	55.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Galatasaray clean sheet in 2nd half	44.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray over 2.5 corners	79.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Galatasaray under 6.5 corners	76.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Galatasaray under 5.5 corners	65.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Galatasaray over 3.5 corners	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Galatasaray under 4.5 corners	51.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Galatasaray over 4.5 corners	49.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Galatasaray under 3.5 corners	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Galatasaray over 5.5 corners	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Galatasaray over 6.5 corners	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Galatasaray under 2.5 corners	20.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray over 0.5 goals	88.4%	87.3%	77.8%	1.12×	1.15
Galatasaray under 3.5 goals	82.8%	82.2%	92.6%	0.89×	1.22
Galatasaray over 1.5 goals	63.5%	63.6%	46.0%	1.38×	1.57
Galatasaray under 2.5 goals	63.4%	63.6%	77.8%	0.82×	1.57
Galatasaray over 2.5 goals	36.6%	36.4%	22.2%	1.64×	2.75
Galatasaray under 1.5 goals	36.5%	36.4%	54.1%	0.67×	2.75
Galatasaray over 3.5 goals	17.2%	17.8%	7.4%	2.42×	5.62
Galatasaray under 0.5 goals	11.6%	12.7%	22.2%	0.57×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray under 1.5 in 1st half	76.2%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Galatasaray over 0.5 in 1st half	60.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Galatasaray under 0.5 in 1st half	39.5%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Galatasaray over 1.5 in 1st half	23.8%	23.2%	—	—	4.31

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray scores more in 2nd half	43.1%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Galatasaray scores equally in both	29.0%	27.8%	—	—	3.60
Galatasaray scores more in 1st half	27.9%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce (home no bet)	50.4%	51.3%	52.7%	0.97×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.6%	48.7%	47.3%	1.03×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray even goals	50.7%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
Galatasaray odd goals	49.3%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.1%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 1-0	21.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	12.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 1-1	11.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	9.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
Any other HT score	8.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 2-1	5.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 0-2	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.20

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray at HT / Galatasaray at FT	35.1%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
Draw at HT / Galatasaray at FT	16.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Fenerbahce at HT / Fenerbahce at FT	12.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Fenerbahce at FT	8.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.58
Galatasaray at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Fenerbahce at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Fenerbahce at HT / Galatasaray at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.66
Galatasaray at HT / Fenerbahce at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.70

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to score last	59.0%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Fenerbahce to score last	37.1%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.33

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.1%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Galatasaray to lead by 1 at any time	71.2%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Fenerbahce to lead by 1 at any time	44.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Galatasaray to lead by 2 at any time	42.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Galatasaray to lead by 3 at any time	21.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Fenerbahce to lead by 2 at any time	17.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Fenerbahce to lead by 3 at any time	5.3%	6.7%	—	—	15.01

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray most corners	47.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Fenerbahce most corners	40.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.6%	83.4%	85.4%	0.98×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.9%	83.4%	73.9%	1.13×	1.20
2-5 goals	73.1%	72.4%	69.8%	1.04×	1.38
1-4 goals	68.3%	68.8%	75.4%	0.91×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.6%	63.3%	51.4%	1.23×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.8%	59.1%	59.8%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.8%	53.2%	47.3%	1.12×	1.88
1-3 goals	49.4%	48.5%	61.3%	0.79×	2.06
2-3 goals	40.8%	43.6%	45.7%	0.95×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	37.3%	1.17×	2.30
4-6 goals	40.1%	43.6%	28.4%	1.53×	2.30
4-5 goals	32.3%	35.2%	24.3%	1.45×	2.84
1-2 goals	27.8%	30.2%	38.3%	0.79×	3.31
5-6 goals	21.1%	24.5%	14.3%	1.71×	4.09
7+ goals	6.6%	8.9%	2.7%	3.35×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray never behind	51.4%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Fenerbahce never behind	24.9%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.1%	50.9%	50.8%	1.00×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.9%	49.1%	49.2%	1.00×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.0%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.0%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.1%	95.4%	92.0%	1.04×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	87.5%	87.6%	76.4%	1.15×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	85.5%	87.6%	93.2%	0.94×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	72.2%	72.5%	83.2%	0.87×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	68.3%	66.3%	53.9%	1.23×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	53.3%	52.5%	69.1%	0.76×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	46.7%	47.5%	30.9%	1.54×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	31.7%	33.7%	46.1%	0.73×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	27.8%	27.5%	16.8%	1.64×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	14.5%	12.4%	6.8%	1.83×	8.06
Under 1.5 goals	12.5%	12.4%	23.6%	0.53×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.9%	4.6%	8.0%	0.58×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	92.8%	92.4%	97.2%	0.95×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	84.6%	81.1%	69.6%	1.17×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	83.3%	81.1%	92.5%	0.88×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	65.7%	67.4%	80.4%	0.84×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.5%	55.8%	40.2%	1.39×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.5%	44.2%	59.8%	0.74×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	34.3%	32.6%	19.6%	1.67×	3.07
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	16.7%	18.9%	7.5%	2.51×	5.30
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	15.4%	18.9%	30.4%	0.62×	5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	7.2%	7.6%	2.8%	2.75×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.6%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.9%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	56.6%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.4%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.4%	14.3%	—	—	7.01

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.8%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	66.4%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	61.0%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	39.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	33.6%	31.3%	—	—	3.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.2%	14.6%	—	—	6.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce not to score in both halves	76.6%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Galatasaray not to score in both halves	57.2%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Galatasaray to score in both halves	42.8%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Fenerbahce to score in both halves	23.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	66.7%	59.9%	55.5%	1.08×	1.67
Only Galatasaray scores	21.7%	22.2%	22.4%	0.99×	4.50
Only Fenerbahce scores	7.7%	7.1%	14.4%	0.49×	14.04
Neither team scores	3.9%	4.6%	8.0%	0.58×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.3%	17.5%	22.7%	0.77×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.9%	17.5%	14.3%	1.22×	5.73
6 or more goals	14.5%	12.1%	6.8%	1.79×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	13.3%	12.1%	10.2%	1.19×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	8.6%	7.6%	15.8%	0.48×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	3.9%	4.5%	8.0%	0.56×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.5%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
No goals in 1st half	23.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	18.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	61.0%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	25.8%	29.1%	—	—	3.43
No goals in 2nd half	13.2%	14.3%	—	—	6.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce not to win both halves	94.9%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Galatasaray not to win both halves	80.2%	83.7%	—	—	1.20
Galatasaray to win both halves	19.8%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Fenerbahce to win both halves	5.1%	5.8%	—	—	17.15

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Galatasaray to win either half	68.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Fenerbahce to win neither half	60.2%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Fenerbahce to win either half	39.8%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
Galatasaray to win neither half	31.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fenerbahce not to win to nil	92.3%	92.1%	85.6%	1.08×	1.09
Galatasaray not to win to nil	78.3%	78.1%	77.6%	1.01×	1.28
Galatasaray to win to nil	21.7%	21.9%	22.4%	0.98×	4.57
Fenerbahce to win to nil	7.7%	7.9%	14.4%	0.55×	12.65

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.4%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Galatasaray by 1	20.8%	24.1%	24.0%	1.00×	4.15
Galatasaray by 3+	17.3%	17.0%	10.0%	1.70×	5.87
Galatasaray by 2	16.7%	17.0%	11.6%	1.46×	5.87
Fenerbahce by 1	12.7%	11.8%	15.9%	0.74×	8.51
Fenerbahce by 2	6.6%	7.2%	7.8%	0.92×	13.91
Fenerbahce by 3+	3.5%	2.7%	5.4%	0.50×	36.80