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Galway United v Bohemians — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · IRL-Premier Division · 2627

IRL-Premier Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Galway United win
28.3%
model 26.7%
Draw
28.3%
model 28.7%
Bohemians win
43.4%
model 44.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,392 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.6%
  2. 1-2 9.4%
  3. 0-0 7.7%
  4. 0-2 7.5%
  5. 2-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.555.7% Under 2.544.3%
BTTS yes60.1% BTTS no39.9%
Galway United 1+71.4% Galway United 2+35.6%
Bohemians 1+81.0% Bohemians 2+49.4%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
19/100
Data quality
40/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Bohemians (DNB)
Draw no bet · usually 41%
62.1% fair odds 1.61
strong signal · 3481 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both teams to score 2+
GG/NG 2+ · usually 83%
83.0% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 6846 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Bohemians have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Galway United have allowed 1.35.
  • Away from home Bohemians average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 40/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Galway United have only 0 matches on record.
  • Bohemians have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Bohemians have an estimated 43.4% win probability, against 28.3% for the draw and 28.3% for Galway United. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for Galway United and 1.66 for Bohemians.

Why Galway United

Galway United have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Bohemians have allowed 1.35. At home Galway United average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.3%.

Why Bohemians can win

Bohemians have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Galway United have allowed 1.35. Away from home Bohemians average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Galway United, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Bohemians, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Galway United: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Bohemians: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Bohemians are the model's most likely outcome at 43.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. Confidence 19/100, data quality 40/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.25–1.66 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.24–1.59 1-1 14% 54% 59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians to win 43.2% 43.0% 28.2% 1.52× 2.33
Draw 29.3% 27.7% 31.3% 0.89× 3.61
Galway United to win 27.5% 27.7% 40.8% 0.68× 3.61
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians & both teams score 22.5% 21.8% 16.3% 1.34× 4.60
Draw & both teams score 21.1% 21.7% 22.1% 0.98× 4.60
Bohemians & not both score 20.7% 21.7% 12.3% 1.77× 4.60
Galway United & both teams score 15.3% 18.0% 18.4% 0.98× 5.55
Galway United & not both score 12.1% 13.2% 22.7% 0.58× 7.55
Draw & not both score 8.2% 8.4% 9.5% 0.88× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians & over 1.5 36.2% 34.6% 20.9% 1.66× 2.89
Bohemians & over 2.5 28.7% 25.9% 17.5% 1.48× 3.86
Bohemians & under 3.5 27.7% 25.9% 20.6% 1.26× 3.86
Galway United & over 1.5 22.5% 21.6% 30.4% 0.71× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 22.1% 21.6% 23.3% 0.93× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 22.1% 21.6% 23.3% 0.93× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 21.1% 21.6% 22.1% 0.98× 4.63
Galway United & under 3.5 18.6% 18.0% 31.0% 0.58× 5.57
Galway United & over 2.5 18.0% 18.0% 23.0% 0.78× 5.57
Bohemians & over 3.5 15.5% 18.0% 8.0% 2.25× 5.57
Bohemians & under 2.5 14.5% 12.9% 11.0% 1.16× 7.77
Galway United & under 2.5 9.5% 8.0% 18.1% 0.44× 12.56
Galway United & over 3.5 8.9% 8.0% 10.1% 0.79× 12.56
Draw & under 1.5 8.2% 8.0% 9.5% 0.84× 12.56
Draw & over 2.5 7.2% 8.0% 8.3% 0.96× 12.56
Draw & over 3.5 7.2% 8.0% 8.3% 0.96× 12.56
Bohemians & under 1.5 7.0% 8.0% 7.7% 1.04× 12.56
Galway United & under 1.5 5.0% 4.9% 10.7% 0.45× 20.52
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (1UP) 60.4% 63.0% 1.59
Galway United (1UP) 46.8% 43.2% 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (2UP) 43.2% 47.7% 2.10
Galway United (2UP) 27.5% 24.8% 4.03
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians to win 2nd half 39.1% 36.0% 2.78
2nd half drawn 35.7% 35.9% 2.79
Galway United to win 2nd half 25.2% 26.3% 3.80
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.2% 79.4% 1.26
Bohemians over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.5% 59.0% 1.70
Bohemians under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.5% 41.0% 2.44
Bohemians over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.8% 20.6% 4.85
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.1% 82.6% 1.21
Galway United over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.7% 53.2% 1.88
Galway United under 0.5 in 2nd half 49.3% 46.8% 2.14
Galway United over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.9% 17.4% 5.74
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (+2.5) 95.9% 96.3% 92.6% 1.04× 1.04
Bohemians (+1.5) 87.5% 88.3% 82.2% 1.07× 1.13
Bohemians (+0.5) 72.5% 73.7% 59.2% 1.24× 1.36
Galway United (+0.5) 56.8% 56.9% 71.8% 0.79× 1.76
Bohemians (-0.5) 43.2% 43.1% 28.2% 1.53× 2.32
Galway United (-0.5) 27.5% 26.3% 40.8% 0.65× 3.80
Galway United (-1.5) 12.5% 11.7% 17.8% 0.66× 8.58
Galway United (-2.5) 4.1% 3.7% 7.4% 0.51× 26.73
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians to concede 71.1% 77.1% 78.5% 0.98× 1.30
Bohemians clean sheet 28.9% 22.9% 21.5% 1.07× 4.36
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians clean sheet in 1st half 58.6% 58.5% 1.71
Bohemians to concede in 1st half 41.4% 41.5% 2.41
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians to concede in 2nd half 50.7% 52.7% 1.90
Bohemians clean sheet in 2nd half 49.3% 47.3% 2.12
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians under 3.5 goals 92.2% 92.2% 96.9% 0.95× 1.09
Bohemians over 0.5 goals 79.7% 76.1% 68.1% 1.12× 1.31
Bohemians under 2.5 goals 78.5% 76.1% 89.6% 0.85× 1.31
Bohemians under 1.5 goals 52.7% 53.6% 67.2% 0.80× 1.86
Bohemians over 1.5 goals 47.3% 46.4% 32.8% 1.41× 2.16
Bohemians over 2.5 goals 21.5% 23.9% 10.4% 2.29× 4.19
Bohemians under 0.5 goals 20.3% 23.9% 31.9% 0.75× 4.19
Bohemians over 3.5 goals 7.8% 7.8% 3.1% 2.55× 12.79
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians under 1.5 in 1st half 86.6% 88.9% 1.13
Bohemians under 0.5 in 1st half 52.9% 55.7% 1.79
Bohemians over 0.5 in 1st half 47.1% 44.3% 2.26
Bohemians over 1.5 in 1st half 13.4% 11.1% 9.03
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians scores more in 2nd half 41.7% 43.8% 2.28
Bohemians scores equally in both 34.7% 34.2% 2.92
Bohemians scores more in 1st half 23.6% 22.4% 4.46
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 51.6% 51.2% 43.4% 1.18× 1.95
Galway United (away no bet) 48.4% 48.8% 56.6% 0.86× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians even goals 52.1% 52.8% 57.1% 0.93× 1.89
Bohemians odd goals 47.9% 47.2% 42.9% 1.10× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.8% 83.0% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.2% 17.0% 5.90
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 67.2% 68.5% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 32.8% 31.5% 3.17
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.8% 55.2% 1.81
Bohemians to score 2+ in a row 38.5% 36.6% 2.74
Galway United to score 2+ in a row 26.2% 25.0% 4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.9% 19.4% 5.14
Bohemians to score 3+ in a row 14.0% 12.2% 8.20
Galway United to score 3+ in a row 7.3% 5.6% 17.75
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.9% 11.4% 14.1% 0.81× 8.80
1-2 9.3% 7.4% 9.2% 0.80× 13.53
0-0 8.2% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.54
0-1 7.0% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.54
0-2 7.5% 7.4% 3.7% 2.01× 13.54
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 10.1% 0.73× 13.54
2-2 5.7% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.54
0-3 4.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 57.56
0-4 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 57.57
1-0 5.0% 1.7% 10.7% 0.16× 57.55
1-3 4.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.81× 57.55
1-4 2.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 57.57
2-0 4.5% 1.7% 7.7% 0.23× 57.56
2-3 3.1% 1.7% 3.4% 0.51× 57.56
2-4 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.42× 57.57
3-0 1.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.51× 57.57
3-1 3.0% 1.7% 2.5% 0.71× 57.56
3-2 2.4% 1.7% 2.5% 0.71× 57.57
3-3 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.42× 57.57
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 57.58
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.13× 57.58
4-1 0.9% 1.7% 2.5% 0.71× 57.58
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 57.58
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 57.58
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.66× 57.58
Any other score 3.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.42× 57.56
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (2nd half DNB) 60.8% 61.0% 1.64
Galway United (2nd half DNB) 39.2% 39.0% 2.57
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians leading at HT (DNB) 55.8% 58.2% 1.72
Galway United leading at HT (DNB) 44.2% 41.8% 2.39
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians or draw (X2) 72.5% 72.3% 59.2% 1.22× 1.38
Galway United or Bohemians (12) 70.7% 72.3% 68.7% 1.05× 1.38
Galway United or draw (1X) 56.8% 57.0% 71.8% 0.79× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians or draw at HT 74.9% 74.4% 1.34
Galway United or draw at HT 68.3% 66.3% 1.51
Galway United or Bohemians at HT 56.7% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians or draw (1UP) 72.5% 80.2% 1.25
Galway United or draw (1UP) 56.8% 62.7% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians or draw in 2nd half 74.8% 73.7% 1.36
Galway United or Bohemians in 2nd half 64.3% 64.1% 1.56
Galway United or draw in 2nd half 60.9% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.0% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 39.0% 38.4% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (DNB) 61.1% 63.0% 40.9% 1.54× 1.59
Galway United (DNB) 38.9% 37.0% 59.1% 0.63× 2.70
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians to score first 51.6% 53.8% 1.86
Galway United to score first 40.2% 41.7% 2.40
No goal scored 8.2% 7.5% 13.28
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 59.0% 54.8% 56.1% 0.98× 1.83
Not both teams to score 41.0% 45.2% 43.9% 1.03× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 45.0% 44.1% 42.3% 1.04× 2.27
Not both score & under 2.5 32.2% 34.4% 38.0% 0.90× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 13.9% 12.3% 14.1% 0.87× 8.15
Not both score & over 2.5 8.8% 8.4% 6.1% 1.37× 11.93
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.3% 82.5% 83.1% 0.99× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 16.7% 17.5% 16.9% 1.04× 5.71
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.0% 67.6% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 32.0% 32.4% 3.09
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 54.2% 56.0% 1.79
Both score 2nd half only 25.9% 26.6% 3.77
Both score 1st half only 13.8% 10.7% 9.30
Both score in both halves 6.1% 6.7% 14.84
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.1% 82.4% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 19.9% 17.6% 5.67
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.1% 57.3% 1.75
A half without a goal 42.9% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.2% 46.9% 47.2% 0.99× 2.13
4-6 goals 29.0% 27.0% 23.9% 1.13× 3.71
0-1 goals 20.2% 23.0% 27.3% 0.84× 4.34
7+ goals 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 0.86× 53.87
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians to score exactly 1 32.4% 33.6% 35.6% 0.95× 2.97
Bohemians to score exactly 2 25.8% 27.6% 22.7% 1.22× 3.63
Bohemians to score 3+ 21.5% 22.5% 10.4% 2.16× 4.44
Bohemians to score exactly 0 20.3% 22.5% 31.9% 0.71× 4.45
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United to score exactly 1 35.9% 35.5% 35.9% 0.99× 2.81
Galway United to score exactly 0 28.9% 26.1% 21.5% 1.22× 3.82
Galway United to score exactly 2 22.3% 23.3% 28.5% 0.82× 4.28
Galway United to score 3+ 13.0% 14.3% 14.7% 0.97× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.3% 43.1% 2.32
Bohemians leading at HT 31.7% 33.7% 2.97
Galway United leading at HT 25.1% 25.6% 3.91
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians -1: 1 56.8% 56.7% 1.76
Bohemians -1: 2 23.3% 23.7% 4.23
Bohemians -1: X 19.9% 17.3% 5.78
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (0:1) 72.5% 71.0% 59.2% 1.20× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 15.0% 14.0% 23.3% 0.60× 7.16
Galway United (0:1) 12.5% 13.9% 17.8% 0.78× 7.17
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (0:2) 87.5% 86.9% 82.2% 1.06× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.4% 7.7% 10.7% 0.72× 12.98
Galway United (0:2) 4.1% 3.8% 7.4% 0.51× 26.38
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (0:3) 95.9% 96.6% 92.6% 1.04× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 5.5% 0.43× 42.28
Galway United (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 2.1% 1.10× 42.35
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (0:4) 98.9% 98.1% 97.9% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 0.80× 81.87
Galway United (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 0.9% 1.33× 81.93
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United (1:0) 56.8% 58.5% 71.8% 0.81× 1.71
Bohemians (1:0) 23.3% 21.7% 8.3% 2.63× 4.60
Draw (1:0) 19.9% 17.1% 20.2% 0.84× 5.86
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United (2:0) 76.7% 79.9% 91.7% 0.87× 1.25
Draw (2:0) 13.8% 10.4% 6.4% 1.62× 9.59
Bohemians (2:0) 9.6% 6.6% 2.1% 3.06× 15.21
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.9% 48.2% 2.08
Halves equal 27.7% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 25.3% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United to concede 79.7% 76.3% 68.1% 1.12× 1.31
Galway United clean sheet 20.3% 23.7% 31.9% 0.74× 4.21
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United clean sheet in 1st half 52.9% 55.7% 1.79
Galway United to concede in 1st half 47.1% 44.3% 2.26
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United to concede in 2nd half 61.5% 58.8% 1.70
Galway United clean sheet in 2nd half 38.5% 41.2% 2.43
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United under 3.5 goals 96.2% 96.3% 94.2% 1.02× 1.04
Galway United under 2.5 goals 87.0% 87.2% 85.3% 1.02× 1.15
Galway United over 0.5 goals 71.1% 74.3% 78.5% 0.95× 1.35
Galway United under 1.5 goals 64.8% 63.3% 57.1% 1.11× 1.58
Galway United over 1.5 goals 35.2% 36.7% 42.9% 0.85× 2.73
Galway United under 0.5 goals 28.9% 25.7% 21.5% 1.20× 3.89
Galway United over 2.5 goals 13.0% 12.8% 14.7% 0.87× 7.80
Galway United over 3.5 goals 3.8% 3.7% 5.8% 0.64× 26.94
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United under 1.5 in 1st half 89.9% 89.9% 1.11
Galway United under 0.5 in 1st half 58.6% 58.2% 1.72
Galway United over 0.5 in 1st half 41.4% 41.8% 2.39
Galway United over 1.5 in 1st half 10.1% 10.1% 9.91
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United scores equally in both 40.9% 42.4% 2.36
Galway United scores more in 2nd half 35.0% 37.6% 2.66
Galway United scores more in 1st half 24.1% 21.6% 4.63
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians (home no bet) 59.6% 56.2% 47.4% 1.18× 1.78
Draw (home no bet) 40.4% 43.8% 52.6% 0.83× 2.28
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United even goals 54.2% 50.4% 54.3% 0.93× 1.98
Galway United odd goals 45.8% 49.6% 45.7% 1.08× 2.02
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.4% 32.2% 3.11
HT 0-1 19.4% 18.7% 5.35
HT 1-0 16.2% 18.6% 5.37
HT 1-1 10.9% 10.9% 9.17
HT 0-2 6.3% 7.1% 14.04
HT 2-0 4.4% 2.3% 43.38
Any other HT score 4.4% 2.3% 43.38
HT 1-2 3.4% 2.3% 43.46
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.3% 43.50
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.3% 43.64
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians at HT / Bohemians at FT 24.5% 21.8% 4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.0% 16.8% 5.96
Galway United at HT / Galway United at FT 15.9% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Bohemians at FT 15.6% 16.7% 5.98
Draw at HT / Galway United at FT 9.7% 6.0% 16.60
Galway United at HT / Draw at FT 6.0% 6.0% 16.71
Bohemians at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.0% 16.73
Galway United at HT / Bohemians at FT 3.1% 3.5% 28.80
Bohemians at HT / Galway United at FT 1.9% 3.5% 28.85
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians to score last 51.7% 51.9% 1.93
Galway United to score last 40.1% 39.9% 2.51
No goal scored 8.2% 7.5% 13.28
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.8% 92.6% 1.08
Bohemians to lead by 1 at any time 60.4% 61.3% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 48.1% 44.0% 2.27
Galway United to lead by 1 at any time 46.8% 43.9% 2.28
Bohemians to lead by 2 at any time 30.1% 29.3% 3.42
Galway United to lead by 2 at any time 18.3% 14.9% 6.72
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.5% 14.9% 6.72
Bohemians to lead by 3 at any time 11.9% 10.5% 9.57
Galway United to lead by 3 at any time 5.6% 6.6% 15.19
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.0% 83.3% 86.2% 0.97× 1.20
2-6 goals 77.2% 78.5% 70.9% 1.11× 1.27
1-4 goals 76.0% 78.5% 77.9% 1.01× 1.27
2-5 goals 73.0% 72.3% 68.4% 1.06× 1.38
2-4 goals 64.0% 63.1% 60.1% 1.05× 1.58
1-3 goals 60.2% 63.1% 65.0% 0.97× 1.58
3-6 goals 51.3% 53.4% 46.3% 1.15× 1.87
2-3 goals 48.2% 48.5% 47.2% 1.03× 2.06
3-5 goals 47.1% 48.5% 43.9% 1.10× 2.06
3-4 goals 38.1% 39.3% 35.6% 1.10× 2.55
1-2 goals 37.9% 39.3% 42.6% 0.92× 2.55
4-6 goals 29.0% 30.6% 23.9% 1.28× 3.26
4-5 goals 24.8% 24.8% 21.5% 1.16× 4.03
5-6 goals 13.2% 15.1% 11.0% 1.36× 6.64
7+ goals 2.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.20× 38.90
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians never behind 45.0% 48.4% 2.07
Galway United never behind 31.4% 35.5% 2.82
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 45.2% 50.9% 50.3% 1.01× 1.96
Even number of goals 54.8% 49.1% 49.7% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.6% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.4% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.4% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.6% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.2% 92.2% 95.4% 0.97× 1.09
Over 0.5 goals 91.8% 92.2% 90.5% 1.02× 1.09
Under 4.5 goals 84.2% 82.1% 87.1% 0.94× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 79.8% 77.2% 72.7% 1.06× 1.30
Under 3.5 goals 68.4% 66.0% 74.2% 0.89× 1.52
Over 2.5 goals 53.9% 53.0% 48.2% 1.10× 1.89
Under 2.5 goals 46.1% 47.0% 51.8% 0.91× 2.13
Over 3.5 goals 31.6% 34.0% 25.8% 1.32× 2.94
Under 1.5 goals 20.2% 22.8% 27.3% 0.83× 4.39
Over 4.5 goals 15.8% 17.9% 12.9% 1.39× 5.60
Under 0.5 goals 8.2% 7.8% 9.5% 0.82× 12.81
Over 5.5 goals 6.8% 7.8% 4.6% 1.70× 12.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.3% 97.1% 97.8% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.5% 92.4% 95.0% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 81.3% 80.5% 85.2% 0.94× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.7% 72.3% 63.8% 1.13× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 59.4% 55.2% 66.8% 0.83× 1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 40.6% 44.8% 33.2% 1.35× 2.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.3% 27.7% 36.2% 0.77× 3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.7% 19.5% 14.8% 1.32× 5.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.5% 7.6% 5.0% 1.52× 13.13
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.7% 2.9% 2.2% 1.30× 35.08
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.6% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.6% 69.1% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.9% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.1% 31.0% 3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.4% 30.9% 3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.4% 11.0% 9.12
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.3% 82.7% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.7% 79.7% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.3% 53.3% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.7% 46.7% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.3% 20.3% 4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.7% 17.3% 5.78
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United not to score in both halves 79.0% 78.3% 1.28
Bohemians not to score in both halves 71.0% 73.7% 1.36
Bohemians to score in both halves 29.0% 26.3% 3.80
Galway United to score in both halves 21.0% 21.7% 4.61
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 59.0% 58.7% 56.1% 1.05× 1.71
Only Bohemians scores 20.7% 22.0% 12.3% 1.79× 4.54
Only Galway United scores 12.1% 11.1% 22.7% 0.49× 9.02
Neither team scores 8.2% 7.1% 9.5% 0.75× 14.01
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.9% 24.7% 24.8% 0.99× 4.05
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.4% 22.7% 0.99× 4.46
Exactly 4 goals 15.8% 17.5% 13.2% 1.33× 5.70
Exactly 1 goals 12.0% 12.0% 18.1% 0.67× 8.30
Exactly 5 goals 9.0% 7.8% 8.6% 0.91× 12.83
Exactly 0 goals 8.2% 7.8% 9.5% 0.82× 12.83
6 or more goals 6.8% 7.8% 4.6% 1.69× 12.83
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.5% 37.1% 2.70
No goals in 1st half 31.4% 35.9% 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 21.7% 21.7% 4.61
3+ goals in 1st half 11.4% 10.9% 9.21
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.3% 51.3% 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 29.9% 29.9% 3.35
No goals in 2nd half 19.7% 17.3% 5.78
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United not to win both halves 93.4% 94.0% 1.06
Bohemians not to win both halves 87.2% 87.9% 1.14
Bohemians to win both halves 12.8% 12.1% 8.27
Galway United to win both halves 6.6% 6.0% 16.65
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bohemians to win either half 58.0% 59.5% 1.68
Galway United to win neither half 56.4% 59.5% 1.68
Galway United to win either half 43.6% 40.6% 2.47
Bohemians to win neither half 42.0% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Galway United not to win to nil 87.9% 87.9% 77.3% 1.14× 1.14
Bohemians not to win to nil 79.3% 78.4% 87.7% 0.89× 1.28
Bohemians to win to nil 20.7% 21.6% 12.3% 1.76× 4.62
Galway United to win to nil 12.1% 12.1% 22.7% 0.53× 8.29
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 29.3% 27.7% 31.3% 0.89× 3.61
Bohemians by 1 19.9% 16.9% 20.2% 0.83× 5.92
Galway United by 1 15.0% 11.7% 23.3% 0.50× 8.52
Bohemians by 2 13.8% 11.7% 6.4% 1.82× 8.52
Bohemians by 3+ 9.6% 7.3% 2.1% 3.39× 13.73
Galway United by 2 8.4% 7.3% 10.7% 0.68× 13.73
Galway United by 3+ 4.1% 2.8% 7.4% 0.38× 35.50
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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