Galway United v Shelbourne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 25 September 2026 · IRL-Premier Division · 2627
IRL-Premier Division
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 15.6%
- 0-0 11.4%
- 1-0 8.5%
- 2-1 8.2%
- 0-1 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 43.9% | Under 2.5 | 56.1% |
| BTTS yes | 52.1% | BTTS no | 47.9% |
| Galway United 1+ | 71.7% | Galway United 2+ | 35.9% |
| Shelbourne 1+ | 69.1% | Shelbourne 2+ | 32.8% |
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Galway United have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Shelbourne have allowed 1.35.
- At home Galway United average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Galway United have only 0 matches on record.
- Shelbourne have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Galway United have an estimated 35.8% win probability, against 32.6% for the draw and 31.6% for Shelbourne. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.26 for Galway United and 1.17 for Shelbourne.
Why Galway United
Galway United have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Shelbourne have allowed 1.35. At home Galway United average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 32.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.26 to 1.17.
Why Shelbourne can win
Shelbourne have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Galway United have allowed 1.35. Away from home Shelbourne average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Galway United, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Shelbourne, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Galway United: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Shelbourne: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Galway United are the model's most likely outcome at 35.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 15.6%. Confidence 16/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.26–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.23–1.21 | 1-1 16% | 44% | 52% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.