Gamba Osaka v FC Tokyo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Gamba Osaka

0–2

10:00 UTC

FC Tokyo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 22h before kick-off

Gamba Osaka win

36.0%

model 35.2%

Draw

21.5%

model 23.4%

FC Tokyo win

42.5%

model 41.4%

362143

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (568 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
1-2 8.7%
2-1 8.0%
0-1 7.2%
1-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.7%	Under 2.5	39.3%
BTTS yes	62.5%	BTTS no	37.5%
Gamba Osaka 1+	77.6%	Gamba Osaka 2+	44.1%
FC Tokyo 1+	80.6%	FC Tokyo 2+	48.9%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.64. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Over 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 47%

62.0% fair odds 1.61

strong signal · 12588 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

FC Tokyo (+1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 82%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 13611 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

FC Tokyo carry the stronger rating, 1580 Elo against 1530.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Tokyo have an estimated 42.5% win probability, against 36.0% for Gamba Osaka and 21.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.50 for Gamba Osaka and 1.64 for FC Tokyo.

Why Gamba Osaka

Nothing in the data singles out Gamba Osaka.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.50 to 1.64. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why FC Tokyo can win

FC Tokyo carry the stronger rating, 1580 Elo against 1530.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Gamba Osaka, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Tokyo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Gamba Osaka: 56% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Tokyo: 51% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

FC Tokyo are the model's most likely outcome at 42.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	352341	1.50–1.64	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	372339	1.54–1.58	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	392437	1.53–1.49	1-1 11%	58%	61%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	382438	1.50–1.49	1-1 11%	58%	60%	Home ✗
deep	322544	1.26–1.53	1-1 12%	53%	56%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo to win	43.9%	43.0%	31.1%	1.38×	2.33
Gamba Osaka to win	31.6%	30.5%	43.0%	0.71×	3.28
Draw	24.5%	24.5%	26.1%	0.94×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo & not both score	22.5%	21.8%	17.8%	1.23×	4.58
FC Tokyo & both teams score	21.4%	21.8%	13.4%	1.63×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.9%	19.2%	0.93×	5.57
Gamba Osaka & both teams score	15.9%	17.9%	18.1%	0.99×	5.57
Gamba Osaka & not both score	15.7%	17.9%	25.0%	0.72×	5.57
Draw & not both score	5.8%	8.3%	7.0%	1.19×	11.99

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo & over 1.5	34.3%	30.8%	21.3%	1.45×	3.25
FC Tokyo & under 3.5	29.5%	26.1%	23.4%	1.11×	3.84
FC Tokyo & over 2.5	27.1%	26.1%	17.8%	1.46×	3.84
Gamba Osaka & over 1.5	23.6%	21.6%	30.3%	0.71×	4.63
Gamba Osaka & under 3.5	22.3%	21.6%	33.1%	0.65×	4.63
Gamba Osaka & over 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	23.1%	0.78×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.4%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.4%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
FC Tokyo & under 2.5	16.8%	18.0%	13.4%	1.34×	5.56
FC Tokyo & over 3.5	14.4%	12.9%	7.8%	1.65×	7.76
Gamba Osaka & under 2.5	12.8%	12.9%	20.0%	0.64×	7.77
Gamba Osaka & over 3.5	9.3%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.62
FC Tokyo & under 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.62
Gamba Osaka & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	12.8%	0.62×	12.62
Draw & over 2.5	7.1%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	7.1%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.62

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (1UP)	60.0%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
Gamba Osaka (1UP)	49.4%	43.6%	—	—	2.29

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (2UP)	43.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Gamba Osaka (2UP)	31.6%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo to win 2nd half	38.5%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Gamba Osaka to win 2nd half	27.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
FC Tokyo over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.2%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
FC Tokyo under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.8%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
FC Tokyo over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	20.4%	—	—	4.89

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.7%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.3%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.7%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.3%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (+2.5)	95.5%	96.3%	93.8%	1.03×	1.04
FC Tokyo (+1.5)	86.7%	88.5%	81.9%	1.08×	1.13
FC Tokyo (+0.5)	68.4%	68.7%	57.0%	1.20×	1.46
Gamba Osaka (+0.5)	56.1%	57.0%	68.9%	0.83×	1.75
FC Tokyo (-0.5)	43.9%	43.0%	31.1%	1.38×	2.33
Gamba Osaka (-0.5)	31.6%	31.3%	43.0%	0.73×	3.19
Gamba Osaka (-1.5)	13.3%	11.5%	18.1%	0.63×	8.69
Gamba Osaka (-2.5)	4.5%	3.7%	6.3%	0.59×	27.02

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo to concede	71.7%	76.6%	75.3%	1.02×	1.31
FC Tokyo clean sheet	28.3%	23.4%	24.7%	0.95×	4.27

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo clean sheet in 1st half	58.1%	58.3%	—	—	1.71
FC Tokyo to concede in 1st half	41.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo to concede in 2nd half	51.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
FC Tokyo clean sheet in 2nd half	48.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo under 3.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
FC Tokyo under 2.5 goals	80.0%	81.4%	87.8%	0.93×	1.23
FC Tokyo over 0.5 goals	78.4%	76.3%	68.1%	1.12×	1.31
FC Tokyo under 1.5 goals	54.6%	53.6%	68.3%	0.79×	1.87
FC Tokyo over 1.5 goals	45.4%	46.4%	31.7%	1.46×	2.16
FC Tokyo under 0.5 goals	21.6%	23.7%	31.9%	0.74×	4.22
FC Tokyo over 2.5 goals	20.0%	18.6%	12.2%	1.53×	5.36
FC Tokyo over 3.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	4.1%	1.89×	13.00

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo under 1.5 in 1st half	87.4%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
FC Tokyo under 0.5 in 1st half	54.1%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
FC Tokyo over 0.5 in 1st half	45.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
FC Tokyo over 1.5 in 1st half	12.6%	11.4%	—	—	8.80

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo scores more in 2nd half	41.1%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
FC Tokyo scores equally in both	35.6%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
FC Tokyo scores more in 1st half	23.3%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka (away no bet)	56.3%	57.3%	62.2%	0.92×	1.75
Draw (away no bet)	43.7%	42.7%	37.8%	1.13×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo even goals	52.3%	52.7%	54.2%	0.97×	1.90
FC Tokyo odd goals	47.7%	47.3%	45.8%	1.03×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.3%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.7%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.1%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.9%	31.7%	—	—	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.9%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
FC Tokyo to score 2+ in a row	36.6%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Gamba Osaka to score 2+ in a row	27.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	19.4%	—	—	5.14
FC Tokyo to score 3+ in a row	12.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Gamba Osaka to score 3+ in a row	7.7%	5.7%	—	—	17.65

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.6%	11.4%	13.4%	0.85×	8.74
0-1	9.6%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.49
1-2	9.1%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.49
0-2	7.2%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.49
1-0	8.0%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.49
2-1	7.5%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.49
0-0	5.8%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.49
2-2	5.7%	7.4%	5.2%	1.44×	13.49
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.33
0-3	3.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.33
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.35
1-3	4.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.33
1-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.34
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.34
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.65×	58.35
3-0	2.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.34
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.34
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.34
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.35
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.35
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	58.35
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.65×	58.35
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.35
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.35
Any other score	2.9%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.34

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (2nd half DNB)	58.7%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Gamba Osaka (2nd half DNB)	41.3%	39.1%	—	—	2.56

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo leading at HT (DNB)	54.0%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Gamba Osaka leading at HT (DNB)	46.0%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka or FC Tokyo (12)	75.5%	75.5%	73.9%	1.02×	1.32
FC Tokyo or draw (X2)	68.4%	69.5%	57.0%	1.22×	1.44
Gamba Osaka or draw (1X)	56.1%	57.0%	68.9%	0.83×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo or draw at HT	73.7%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Gamba Osaka or draw at HT	69.1%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Gamba Osaka or FC Tokyo at HT	57.3%	56.7%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo or draw (1UP)	68.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Gamba Osaka or draw (1UP)	56.1%	62.8%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo or draw in 2nd half	72.9%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Gamba Osaka or FC Tokyo in 2nd half	65.6%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Gamba Osaka or draw in 2nd half	61.5%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.7%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (DNB)	58.1%	58.1%	42.0%	1.38×	1.72
Gamba Osaka (DNB)	41.9%	41.9%	58.0%	0.72×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo to score first	51.7%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Gamba Osaka to score first	42.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	5.8%	7.6%	—	—	13.23

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.0%	55.0%	50.5%	1.09×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.0%	45.0%	49.5%	0.91×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.4%	41.6%	37.2%	1.12×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.5%	38.4%	40.2%	0.96×	2.61
Both score & under 2.5	11.6%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.7%	82.8%	86.3%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.3%	17.2%	13.8%	1.25×	5.82

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.0%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	24.9%	21.0%	—	—	4.77
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	5.9%	6.8%	—	—	14.66

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.8%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.2%	17.3%	—	—	5.77

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	44.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.8%	47.3%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.3%	26.6%	20.9%	1.27×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.4%	22.9%	29.5%	0.77×	4.37
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	2.7%	0.69×	54.91

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo to score exactly 1	33.1%	33.8%	36.6%	0.92×	2.96
FC Tokyo to score exactly 2	25.4%	27.4%	19.7%	1.39×	3.65
FC Tokyo to score exactly 0	21.6%	22.3%	31.9%	0.70×	4.49
FC Tokyo to score 3+	20.0%	19.6%	12.2%	1.61×	5.10

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.6%	36.3%	0.98×	2.81
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 0	28.3%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.77
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 2	22.6%	23.3%	24.5%	0.95×	4.29
Gamba Osaka to score 3+	13.4%	14.3%	14.8%	0.97×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.7%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
FC Tokyo leading at HT	30.9%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
Gamba Osaka leading at HT	26.3%	25.5%	—	—	3.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo -1: 1	56.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
FC Tokyo -1: X	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
FC Tokyo -1: 2	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (0:1)	68.4%	65.1%	57.0%	1.14×	1.54
Draw (0:1)	18.3%	17.8%	25.0%	0.71×	5.60
Gamba Osaka (0:1)	13.3%	13.7%	18.1%	0.76×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (0:2)	86.7%	87.1%	81.9%	1.06×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.9%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	13.02
Gamba Osaka (0:2)	4.5%	3.8%	6.3%	0.60×	26.58

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (0:3)	95.5%	96.6%	93.8%	1.03×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	4.2%	0.56×	42.26
Gamba Osaka (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	2.2%	1.08×	42.35

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.4%	0.86×	83.02
Gamba Osaka (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.9%	1.28×	83.10

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka (1:0)	56.1%	58.3%	68.9%	0.85×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	22.1%	21.7%	19.4%	1.12×	4.60
FC Tokyo (1:0)	21.8%	21.7%	11.9%	1.83×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka (2:0)	78.2%	80.4%	88.1%	0.91×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	13.1%	10.4%	6.1%	1.70×	9.66
FC Tokyo (2:0)	8.7%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.61

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.9%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Halves equal	24.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka to concede	78.4%	76.3%	68.1%	1.12×	1.31
Gamba Osaka clean sheet	21.6%	23.8%	31.9%	0.75×	4.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka clean sheet in 1st half	54.1%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Gamba Osaka to concede in 1st half	45.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka to concede in 2nd half	60.2%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Gamba Osaka clean sheet in 2nd half	39.8%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka under 3.5 goals	96.1%	96.3%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Gamba Osaka under 2.5 goals	86.6%	87.3%	85.2%	1.02×	1.15
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 goals	71.7%	74.3%	75.3%	0.99×	1.35
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 goals	64.0%	63.6%	60.8%	1.05×	1.57
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 goals	36.0%	36.4%	39.2%	0.93×	2.75
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 goals	28.3%	25.7%	24.7%	1.04×	3.89
Gamba Osaka over 2.5 goals	13.4%	12.7%	14.8%	0.86×	7.85
Gamba Osaka over 3.5 goals	3.9%	3.7%	5.2%	0.71×	27.36

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 in 1st half	89.7%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.0%	—	—	9.96

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka scores equally in both	40.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Gamba Osaka scores more in 2nd half	35.3%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Gamba Osaka scores more in 1st half	24.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.66

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo (home no bet)	64.2%	60.1%	54.4%	1.11×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	35.8%	39.9%	45.6%	0.87×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka even goals	54.0%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Gamba Osaka odd goals	46.0%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
HT 0-1	19.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-0	17.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-1	10.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.20
HT 0-2	5.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.16
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.3%	—	—	42.79
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	42.82
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	42.89
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.3%	—	—	42.92
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.06

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo at HT / FC Tokyo at FT	24.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Gamba Osaka at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT	17.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / FC Tokyo at FT	16.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.85
Draw at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT	11.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.86
Gamba Osaka at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.32
FC Tokyo at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.05
Gamba Osaka at HT / FC Tokyo at FT	3.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.12
FC Tokyo at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT	1.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.16

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo to score last	51.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Gamba Osaka to score last	42.5%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	5.8%	7.6%	—	—	13.23

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
FC Tokyo to lead by 1 at any time	60.0%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Gamba Osaka to lead by 1 at any time	49.4%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.3%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
FC Tokyo to lead by 2 at any time	28.4%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Gamba Osaka to lead by 2 at any time	19.2%	15.0%	—	—	6.66
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.9%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
FC Tokyo to lead by 3 at any time	10.8%	10.3%	—	—	9.68
Gamba Osaka to lead by 3 at any time	6.0%	6.6%	—	—	15.05

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.0%	78.7%	81.7%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.2%	72.4%	68.0%	1.07×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.1%	72.4%	65.0%	1.11×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.4%	63.4%	69.7%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.4%	59.2%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.6%	53.1%	44.1%	1.21×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.5%	48.6%	41.1%	1.18×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.8%	48.6%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.2%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.8%	39.2%	35.3%	1.11×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.3%	30.3%	20.9%	1.45×	3.30
4-5 goals	24.3%	24.5%	18.0%	1.36×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.8%	14.8%	8.9%	1.66×	6.74
7+ goals	2.4%	2.6%	2.7%	0.96×	39.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo never behind	44.8%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Gamba Osaka never behind	34.2%	36.1%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.5%	92.2%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.8%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	76.6%	77.4%	70.5%	1.10×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.3%	66.4%	76.6%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.0%	52.5%	46.6%	1.13×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	47.0%	47.5%	53.4%	0.89×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.7%	33.6%	23.4%	1.44×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	23.4%	22.6%	29.5%	0.77×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	15.2%	17.7%	11.4%	1.55×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	6.5%	7.8%	5.6%	1.38×	12.90
Under 0.5 goals	5.8%	7.8%	7.0%	1.10×	12.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.9%	92.4%	94.0%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.0%	81.1%	87.0%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.3%	67.5%	61.2%	1.10×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.5%	61.9%	69.5%	0.89×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.5%	38.1%	30.5%	1.25×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.7%	32.5%	38.8%	0.84×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.0%	18.9%	13.0%	1.46×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.1%	7.6%	6.0%	1.27×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.8%	2.7%	1.02×	35.77

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.9%	88.9%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.6%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.9%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.1%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.4%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.1%	11.1%	—	—	9.04

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.7%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka not to score in both halves	78.5%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
FC Tokyo not to score in both halves	72.4%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
FC Tokyo to score in both halves	27.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.84
Gamba Osaka to score in both halves	21.5%	21.9%	—	—	4.56

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.0%	58.6%	50.5%	1.16×	1.71
Only FC Tokyo scores	22.5%	22.3%	17.8%	1.25×	4.49
Only Gamba Osaka scores	15.7%	16.0%	25.0%	0.64×	6.26
Neither team scores	5.8%	7.1%	7.0%	1.01×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.6%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.6%	17.5%	22.7%	0.77×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	17.5%	12.2%	1.43×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.7%	7.6%	5.9%	1.28×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.5%	7.6%	5.6%	1.35×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.8%	7.6%	7.0%	1.08×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.0%	—	—	2.71
No goals in 1st half	31.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
2 goals in 1st half	21.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
3+ goals in 1st half	11.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.12

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.7%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
1 goal in 2nd half	32.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	19.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka not to win both halves	92.9%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
FC Tokyo not to win both halves	88.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
FC Tokyo to win both halves	11.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Gamba Osaka to win both halves	7.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.78

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Tokyo to win either half	57.6%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Gamba Osaka to win neither half	53.6%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Gamba Osaka to win either half	46.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
FC Tokyo to win neither half	42.4%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gamba Osaka not to win to nil	84.3%	83.2%	75.0%	1.11×	1.20
FC Tokyo not to win to nil	77.5%	78.1%	82.2%	0.95×	1.28
FC Tokyo to win to nil	22.5%	21.9%	17.8%	1.23×	4.57
Gamba Osaka to win to nil	15.7%	16.8%	25.0%	0.67×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.5%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.15
FC Tokyo by 1	22.1%	24.1%	19.4%	1.24×	4.15
Gamba Osaka by 1	18.3%	17.0%	25.0%	0.68×	5.89
FC Tokyo by 2	13.1%	11.8%	6.1%	1.93×	8.48
Gamba Osaka by 2	8.9%	7.2%	12.0%	0.60×	13.87
FC Tokyo by 3+	8.7%	7.2%	5.9%	1.21×	13.88
Gamba Osaka by 3+	4.5%	2.7%	6.3%	0.44×	36.70

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.