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Gamba Osaka v Yokohama F. Marinos — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Gamba Osaka win
38.4%
model 38.3%
Draw
23.2%
model 23.3%
Yokohama F. Marinos win
38.4%
model 38.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.5%
  2. 1-2 8.4%
  3. 2-1 8.4%
  4. 0-1 7.1%
  5. 1-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.560.3% Under 2.539.7%
BTTS yes62.1% BTTS no37.9%
Gamba Osaka 1+78.9% Gamba Osaka 2+46.1%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+79.0% Yokohama F. Marinos 2+46.2%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.56. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 44%
58.5% fair odds 1.71
strong signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Yokohama F. Marinos (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 82%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Yokohama F. Marinos carry the stronger rating, 1536 Elo against 1509.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Yokohama F. Marinos have an estimated 38.4% win probability, against 38.4% for Gamba Osaka and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for Gamba Osaka and 1.56 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

Why Gamba Osaka

Nothing in the data singles out Gamba Osaka.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.56 to 1.56. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Yokohama F. Marinos can win

Yokohama F. Marinos carry the stronger rating, 1536 Elo against 1509.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Gamba Osaka, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Yokohama F. Marinos, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Gamba Osaka: 54% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Yokohama F. Marinos: 53% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Yokohama F. Marinos are the model's most likely outcome at 38.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.56–1.56 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.64–1.62 1-1 10% 63% 64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to win 39.2% 36.4% 43.0% 0.85× 2.75
Yokohama F. Marinos to win 38.1% 36.4% 31.1% 1.17× 2.75
Draw 22.7% 24.4% 26.1% 0.94× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka & both teams score 22.9% 21.8% 18.1% 1.20× 4.58
Yokohama F. Marinos & both teams score 22.3% 21.8% 13.4% 1.62× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.1% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Gamba Osaka & not both score 16.2% 18.0% 25.0% 0.72× 5.57
Yokohama F. Marinos & not both score 15.8% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.57
Draw & not both score 3.6% 4.9% 7.0% 0.69× 20.59
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka & over 1.5 32.6% 30.8% 30.3% 1.01× 3.25
Yokohama F. Marinos & over 1.5 31.6% 30.8% 21.3% 1.45× 3.25
Gamba Osaka & over 2.5 27.4% 26.1% 23.1% 1.13× 3.84
Yokohama F. Marinos & over 2.5 26.6% 26.1% 17.8% 1.46× 3.84
Gamba Osaka & under 3.5 22.9% 21.6% 33.1% 0.65× 4.63
Yokohama F. Marinos & under 3.5 22.4% 21.6% 23.4% 0.92× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.1% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Yokohama F. Marinos & over 3.5 15.7% 18.0% 7.8% 2.30× 5.56
Gamba Osaka & over 3.5 16.2% 18.0% 10.0% 1.80× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 13.6% 12.8% 20.3% 0.63× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 13.6% 12.8% 20.3% 0.63× 7.79
Yokohama F. Marinos & under 2.5 11.5% 12.8% 13.4% 0.96× 7.79
Gamba Osaka & under 2.5 11.7% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 9.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 9.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Gamba Osaka & under 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 12.8% 0.62× 12.63
Yokohama F. Marinos & under 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 7.0% 0.68× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (1UP) 58.2% 58.1% — — 1.72
Yokohama F. Marinos (1UP) 57.3% 58.0% — — 1.72
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (2UP) 39.2% 37.5% — — 2.67
Yokohama F. Marinos (2UP) 38.1% 37.5% — — 2.67
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos to win 2nd half 35.1% 36.1% — — 2.77
Gamba Osaka to win 2nd half 33.3% 34.3% — — 2.91
2nd half drawn 31.6% 34.3% — — 2.92
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.7% 75.5% — — 1.33
Yokohama F. Marinos over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.1% 60.0% — — 1.67
Yokohama F. Marinos under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.9% 40.0% — — 2.50
Yokohama F. Marinos over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.3% 24.5% — — 4.08
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 in 2nd half 76.0% 75.4% — — 1.33
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 in 2nd half 60.8% 63.1% — — 1.58
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 in 2nd half 39.2% 36.9% — — 2.71
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.0% 24.6% — — 4.06
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos (+2.5) 92.0% 92.1% 93.8% 0.98× 1.09
Yokohama F. Marinos (+1.5) 80.4% 82.5% 81.9% 1.01× 1.21
Gamba Osaka (+0.5) 61.9% 62.9% 68.9% 0.91× 1.59
Yokohama F. Marinos (+0.5) 60.8% 62.9% 57.0% 1.10× 1.59
Gamba Osaka (-0.5) 39.2% 37.1% 43.0% 0.86× 2.70
Yokohama F. Marinos (-0.5) 38.1% 37.1% 31.1% 1.19× 2.70
Gamba Osaka (-1.5) 19.6% 17.5% 18.1% 0.96× 5.72
Gamba Osaka (-2.5) 8.0% 7.9% 6.3% 1.26× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos to concede 80.6% 81.5% 75.3% 1.08× 1.23
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet 19.4% 18.5% 24.7% 0.75× 5.40
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos to concede in 1st half 50.6% 50.5% — — 1.98
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet in 1st half 49.4% 49.5% — — 2.02
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos to concede in 2nd half 60.8% 61.6% — — 1.63
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet in 2nd half 39.2% 38.4% — — 2.60
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos under 6.5 corners 87.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Yokohama F. Marinos under 5.5 corners 78.3% 76.0% — — 1.32
Yokohama F. Marinos over 2.5 corners 70.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
Yokohama F. Marinos under 4.5 corners 65.0% 61.8% — — 1.62
Yokohama F. Marinos over 3.5 corners 52.1% 53.1% — — 1.89
Yokohama F. Marinos under 3.5 corners 47.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Yokohama F. Marinos over 4.5 corners 35.0% 38.2% — — 2.62
Yokohama F. Marinos under 2.5 corners 29.4% 28.4% — — 3.52
Yokohama F. Marinos over 5.5 corners 21.7% 24.0% — — 4.17
Yokohama F. Marinos over 6.5 corners 12.5% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos under 3.5 goals 91.9% 92.3% 95.9% 0.96× 1.08
Yokohama F. Marinos over 0.5 goals 80.1% 81.4% 68.1% 1.20× 1.23
Yokohama F. Marinos under 2.5 goals 77.9% 76.3% 87.8% 0.87× 1.31
Yokohama F. Marinos under 1.5 goals 52.0% 53.5% 68.3% 0.78× 1.87
Yokohama F. Marinos over 1.5 goals 48.0% 46.5% 31.7% 1.46× 2.15
Yokohama F. Marinos over 2.5 goals 22.1% 23.7% 12.2% 1.95× 4.21
Yokohama F. Marinos under 0.5 goals 19.9% 18.6% 31.9% 0.58× 5.39
Yokohama F. Marinos over 3.5 goals 8.1% 7.7% 4.1% 1.89× 13.05
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos under 1.5 in 1st half 86.3% 89.2% — — 1.12
Yokohama F. Marinos under 0.5 in 1st half 52.4% 55.5% — — 1.80
Yokohama F. Marinos over 0.5 in 1st half 47.6% 44.5% — — 2.25
Yokohama F. Marinos over 1.5 in 1st half 13.7% 10.8% — — 9.30
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more in 2nd half 42.0% 43.4% — — 2.30
Yokohama F. Marinos scores equally in both 34.4% 33.7% — — 2.97
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more in 1st half 23.6% 22.0% — — 4.55
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (away no bet) 63.3% 61.9% 62.2% 1.00× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 36.7% 38.1% 37.8% 1.01× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos even goals 52.0% 52.6% 54.2% 0.97× 1.90
Yokohama F. Marinos odd goals 48.0% 47.4% 45.8% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 77.8% 81.3% — — 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.2% 18.7% — — 5.36
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 73.6% 67.4% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 26.4% 32.6% — — 3.07
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 64.6% 60.2% — — 1.66
Gamba Osaka to score 2+ in a row 37.8% 36.6% — — 2.73
Yokohama F. Marinos to score 2+ in a row 37.0% 36.6% — — 2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.4% 25.2% — — 3.98
Gamba Osaka to score 3+ in a row 13.3% 12.1% — — 8.29
Yokohama F. Marinos to score 3+ in a row 12.7% 12.1% — — 8.30
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka corners (+3.5) 92.8% 89.6% — — 1.12
Gamba Osaka corners (+2.5) 88.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
Gamba Osaka corners (+1.5) 81.1% 79.8% — — 1.25
Yokohama F. Marinos corners (+3.5) 71.9% 70.7% — — 1.41
Yokohama F. Marinos corners (+2.5) 61.7% 61.8% — — 1.62
Yokohama F. Marinos corners (+1.5) 50.3% 52.4% — — 1.91
Gamba Osaka corners (-1.5) 49.7% 47.6% — — 2.10
Gamba Osaka corners (-2.5) 38.3% 38.2% — — 2.62
Gamba Osaka corners (-3.5) 28.1% 29.3% — — 3.42
Yokohama F. Marinos corners (-1.5) 18.9% 20.2% — — 4.94
Yokohama F. Marinos corners (-2.5) 12.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Yokohama F. Marinos corners (-3.5) 7.2% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 43.9% 38.4% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 30.7% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 25.4% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 81.9% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 74.6% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 67.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 65.6% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 56.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 55.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 44.8% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 43.9% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 34.4% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 32.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 25.4% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 18.1% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.0% 7.4% 13.4% 0.55× 13.50
2-1 8.4% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.50
1-0 6.5% 7.4% 12.8% 0.58× 13.51
1-2 8.3% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.50
2-2 6.8% 7.4% 5.2% 1.44× 13.51
0-1 6.5% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
0-2 5.0% 7.4% 3.6% 2.06× 13.51
2-0 5.2% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
Any other score 5.0% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.29
3-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.31
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.37× 58.31
4-1 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.31
4-2 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.10× 58.31
4-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.31
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.32
0-0 3.6% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 58.30
0-3 2.7% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
0-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.31
1-3 4.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.73× 58.29
1-4 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
2-3 3.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.30
2-4 1.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.31
3-0 2.8% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.30
3-1 4.6% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.29
3-2 3.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.30
3-3 2.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos (2nd half DNB) 51.3% 52.7% — — 1.90
Gamba Osaka (2nd half DNB) 48.7% 47.3% — — 2.11
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka leading at HT (DNB) 53.0% 54.9% — — 1.82
Yokohama F. Marinos leading at HT (DNB) 47.0% 45.1% — — 2.22
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka or Yokohama F. Marinos (12) 77.3% 75.6% 73.9% 1.02× 1.32
Gamba Osaka or draw (1X) 61.9% 63.6% 68.9% 0.92× 1.57
Yokohama F. Marinos or draw (X2) 60.8% 63.6% 57.0% 1.12× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka or draw at HT 71.3% 75.1% — — 1.33
Yokohama F. Marinos or draw at HT 67.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Gamba Osaka or Yokohama F. Marinos at HT 61.0% 61.6% — — 1.62
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka or draw (1UP) 61.9% 71.6% — — 1.40
Yokohama F. Marinos or draw (1UP) 60.8% 71.5% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka or Yokohama F. Marinos in 2nd half 68.4% 65.7% — — 1.52
Yokohama F. Marinos or draw in 2nd half 66.7% 65.7% — — 1.52
Gamba Osaka or draw in 2nd half 64.9% 63.9% — — 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 58.6% 58.5% — — 1.71
Neither half drawn 41.4% 41.5% — — 2.41
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (DNB) 50.7% 50.9% 58.0% 0.88× 1.97
Yokohama F. Marinos (DNB) 49.3% 49.1% 42.0% 1.17× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to score first 48.6% 46.1% — — 2.17
Yokohama F. Marinos to score first 47.8% 46.0% — — 2.17
No goal scored 3.6% 4.3% — — 23.35
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 64.4% 56.7% 50.5% 1.12× 1.77
Not both teams to score 35.6% 43.3% 49.5% 0.87× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 54.4% 47.3% 37.2% 1.27× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 26.8% 33.3% 40.2% 0.83× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 10.0% 8.3% 13.4% 0.62× 12.05
Not both score & over 2.5 8.8% 8.3% 9.5% 0.87× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 76.6% 79.6% 86.3% 0.92× 1.26
Both teams to score 2+ 23.4% 20.4% 13.8% 1.48× 4.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 62.4% 65.7% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 37.6% 34.3% — — 2.91
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 47.4% 52.9% — — 1.89
Both score 2nd half only 28.5% 27.4% — — 3.64
Both score 1st half only 15.0% 10.7% — — 9.32
Both score in both halves 9.1% 6.8% — — 14.61
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 75.9% 81.1% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 24.1% 18.9% — — 5.30
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.0% 59.8% — — 1.67
A half without a goal 37.0% 40.2% — — 2.49
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.4% 42.1% 47.2% 0.89× 2.37
4-6 goals 36.2% 35.1% 20.9% 1.68× 2.85
0-1 goals 16.6% 20.2% 29.5% 0.69× 4.94
7+ goals 4.8% 1.9% 2.7% 0.70× 54.02
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos to score exactly 1 32.1% 33.8% 36.6% 0.93× 2.96
Yokohama F. Marinos to score exactly 2 25.9% 27.4% 19.7% 1.39× 3.66
Yokohama F. Marinos to score 3+ 22.1% 22.3% 12.2% 1.83× 4.49
Yokohama F. Marinos to score exactly 0 19.9% 19.6% 31.9% 0.61× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 1 31.8% 32.6% 36.3% 0.90× 3.07
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 2 26.1% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
Gamba Osaka to score 3+ 22.7% 23.3% 14.8% 1.57× 4.29
Gamba Osaka to score exactly 0 19.4% 18.8% 24.7% 0.76× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 39.0% 38.4% — — 2.60
Gamba Osaka leading at HT 32.3% 33.3% — — 3.00
Yokohama F. Marinos leading at HT 28.7% 24.9% — — 4.01
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka -1: 2 60.8% 62.5% — — 1.60
Gamba Osaka -1: 1 19.6% 17.5% — — 5.70
Gamba Osaka -1: X 19.6% 17.5% — — 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos (0:1) 60.8% 61.3% 57.0% 1.08× 1.63
Gamba Osaka (0:1) 19.6% 17.8% 18.1% 0.98× 5.61
Draw (0:1) 19.6% 17.8% 25.0% 0.71× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos (0:2) 80.4% 82.9% 81.9% 1.01× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.6% 11.0% 12.0% 0.91× 9.10
Gamba Osaka (0:2) 8.0% 7.7% 6.3% 1.23× 13.03
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos (0:3) 92.0% 92.7% 93.8% 0.99× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.3% 5.8% 4.2% 1.37× 17.24
Gamba Osaka (0:3) 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.09× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos (0:4) 97.3% 98.1% 97.8% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 0.87× 81.89
Gamba Osaka (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1.30× 82.02
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (1:0) 61.9% 65.3% 68.9% 0.95× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 19.3% 17.1% 19.4% 0.88× 5.85
Yokohama F. Marinos (1:0) 18.8% 17.1% 11.9% 1.44× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka (2:0) 81.2% 84.6% 88.1% 0.96× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.2% 10.3% 6.1% 1.69× 9.73
Yokohama F. Marinos (2:0) 7.6% 6.4% 5.9% 1.07× 15.68
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.6% 50.1% — — 2.00
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.0% 24.3% — — 4.11
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to concede 80.1% 80.8% 68.1% 1.19× 1.24
Gamba Osaka clean sheet 19.9% 19.2% 31.9% 0.60× 5.21
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka clean sheet in 1st half 52.4% 55.5% — — 1.80
Gamba Osaka to concede in 1st half 47.6% 44.5% — — 2.25
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to concede in 2nd half 62.1% 59.8% — — 1.67
Gamba Osaka clean sheet in 2nd half 37.9% 40.2% — — 2.49
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka over 2.5 corners 86.5% 86.2% — — 1.16
Gamba Osaka over 3.5 corners 74.1% 71.9% — — 1.39
Gamba Osaka under 6.5 corners 68.3% 66.7% — — 1.50
Gamba Osaka over 4.5 corners 59.5% 57.5% — — 1.74
Gamba Osaka under 5.5 corners 55.3% 57.5% — — 1.74
Gamba Osaka over 5.5 corners 44.7% 42.5% — — 2.35
Gamba Osaka under 4.5 corners 40.5% 42.5% — — 2.35
Gamba Osaka over 6.5 corners 31.7% 33.3% — — 3.01
Gamba Osaka under 3.5 corners 25.9% 28.1% — — 3.55
Gamba Osaka under 2.5 corners 13.5% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka under 3.5 goals 91.5% 92.2% 94.8% 0.97× 1.08
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 goals 80.6% 82.2% 75.3% 1.09× 1.22
Gamba Osaka under 2.5 goals 77.3% 77.7% 85.2% 0.91× 1.29
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 goals 51.2% 53.2% 60.8% 0.88× 1.88
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 goals 48.8% 46.8% 39.2% 1.19× 2.14
Gamba Osaka over 2.5 goals 22.7% 22.3% 14.8% 1.50× 4.49
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 goals 19.4% 17.8% 24.7% 0.72× 5.62
Gamba Osaka over 3.5 goals 8.5% 7.8% 5.2% 1.51× 12.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka under 1.5 in 1st half 84.2% 83.8% — — 1.19
Gamba Osaka over 0.5 in 1st half 50.6% 50.3% — — 1.99
Gamba Osaka under 0.5 in 1st half 49.4% 49.7% — — 2.01
Gamba Osaka over 1.5 in 1st half 15.8% 16.2% — — 6.18
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka scores more in 2nd half 39.3% 37.9% — — 2.64
Gamba Osaka scores equally in both 34.4% 33.0% — — 3.03
Gamba Osaka scores more in 1st half 26.3% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos (home no bet) 62.6% 60.0% 54.4% 1.10× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 37.4% 40.0% 45.6% 0.88× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka even goals 51.9% 50.7% 52.7% 0.96× 1.97
Gamba Osaka odd goals 48.1% 49.3% 47.3% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.8% 27.9% — — 3.58
HT 1-0 18.3% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 16.8% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 11.8% 11.0% — — 9.08
HT 2-0 6.4% 6.9% — — 14.50
Any other HT score 6.2% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 0-2 5.4% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 2-1 4.2% 2.4% — — 42.01
HT 1-2 3.8% 2.4% — — 42.03
HT 2-2 1.3% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT 23.4% 21.8% — — 4.58
Yokohama F. Marinos at HT / Yokohama F. Marinos at FT 21.0% 21.8% — — 4.60
Draw at HT / Yokohama F. Marinos at FT 13.8% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT 13.1% 12.6% — — 7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.1% 12.6% — — 7.91
Gamba Osaka at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% — — 16.67
Yokohama F. Marinos at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.5% — — 28.58
Gamba Osaka at HT / Yokohama F. Marinos at FT 3.2% 3.5% — — 28.65
Yokohama F. Marinos at HT / Gamba Osaka at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.67
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to score last 48.6% 46.5% — — 2.15
Yokohama F. Marinos to score last 47.8% 46.5% — — 2.15
No goal scored 3.6% 4.3% — — 23.35
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.4% 95.7% — — 1.05
Gamba Osaka to lead by 1 at any time 58.2% 54.9% — — 1.82
Yokohama F. Marinos to lead by 1 at any time 57.3% 54.9% — — 1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 53.6% 50.9% — — 1.97
Gamba Osaka to lead by 2 at any time 27.4% 25.5% — — 3.92
Yokohama F. Marinos to lead by 2 at any time 26.6% 25.5% — — 3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.8% 19.6% — — 5.10
Gamba Osaka to lead by 3 at any time 10.7% 10.4% — — 9.59
Yokohama F. Marinos to lead by 3 at any time 10.2% 10.4% — — 9.60
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka most corners 61.3% 60.5% — — 1.65
Yokohama F. Marinos most corners 28.0% 31.1% — — 3.21
Corners level 10.7% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.2% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.6% 78.7% 68.0% 1.16× 1.27
1-4 goals 73.4% 72.4% 81.7% 0.89× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.2% 72.4% 65.0% 1.11× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.4% 63.3% 59.2% 1.07× 1.58
3-6 goals 58.4% 59.1% 44.1% 1.34× 1.69
1-3 goals 55.4% 59.1% 69.7% 0.85× 1.69
3-5 goals 52.0% 53.2% 41.1% 1.29× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.4% 43.6% 47.2% 0.92× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.2% 43.6% 35.3% 1.23× 2.30
4-6 goals 36.2% 39.2% 20.9% 1.87× 2.55
1-2 goals 33.2% 35.2% 46.6% 0.76× 2.84
4-5 goals 29.8% 30.2% 18.0% 1.68× 3.31
5-6 goals 18.1% 18.8% 8.9% 2.12× 5.31
7+ goals 4.8% 2.6% 2.7% 0.97× 39.01
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka never behind 39.1% 44.1% — — 2.27
Yokohama F. Marinos never behind 38.2% 44.1% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.6% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.96
Odd number of goals 50.4% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.3% 51.7% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.7% 48.4% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.0% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.0% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.4% 95.4% 93.0% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.8% 87.6% 94.4% 0.93× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 83.4% 82.3% 70.5% 1.17× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 77.1% 77.3% 88.6% 0.87× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 63.2% 61.7% 46.6% 1.33× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 59.0% 58.6% 76.6% 0.77× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 41.0% 41.4% 23.4% 1.77× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 36.8% 38.3% 53.4% 0.72× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 23.0% 22.7% 11.4% 1.99× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 16.6% 17.7% 29.5% 0.60× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 11.2% 12.4% 5.6% 2.20× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 3.6% 4.6% 7.0% 0.65× 21.86
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.9% 92.4% 97.3% 0.95× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.3% 86.7% 94.0% 0.92× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 79.2% 75.9% 61.2% 1.24× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 72.0% 72.4% 87.0% 0.83× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.7% 51.9% 30.5% 1.70× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.3% 48.1% 69.5% 0.69× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 28.0% 27.6% 13.0% 2.13× 3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 20.8% 24.1% 38.8% 0.62× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 12.7% 13.3% 6.0% 2.22× 7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.1% 7.6% 2.7% 2.77× 13.17
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.5% 85.9% — — 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.2% 71.9% — — 1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.1% 36.8% — — 2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.8% 28.1% — — 3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.5% 14.1% — — 7.09
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.2% 85.4% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 70.2% 77.3% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.7% 54.9% — — 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.3% 45.1% — — 2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.8% 22.7% — — 4.40
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.8% 14.6% — — 6.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos not to score in both halves 70.4% 73.8% — — 1.36
Gamba Osaka not to score in both halves 69.2% 70.0% — — 1.43
Gamba Osaka to score in both halves 30.8% 30.0% — — 3.33
Yokohama F. Marinos to score in both halves 29.6% 26.2% — — 3.82
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 64.4% 60.4% 50.5% 1.20× 1.66
Only Gamba Osaka scores 16.2% 16.0% 25.0% 0.64× 6.24
Only Yokohama F. Marinos scores 15.8% 16.0% 17.8% 0.90× 6.25
Neither team scores 3.6% 4.6% 7.0% 0.66× 21.69
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 20.2% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 18.1% 17.5% 12.2% 1.43× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 13.0% 12.1% 22.7% 0.54× 8.24
Exactly 5 goals 11.8% 12.1% 5.9% 2.04× 8.25
6 or more goals 11.2% 12.1% 5.6% 2.16× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 3.6% 4.5% 7.0% 0.64× 22.38
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.1% 37.4% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 25.8% 28.2% — — 3.55
2 goals in 1st half 23.6% 21.5% — — 4.64
3+ goals in 1st half 15.5% 15.6% — — 6.42
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.7% 54.1% — — 1.85
1 goal in 2nd half 28.5% 29.3% — — 3.41
No goals in 2nd half 14.8% 14.4% — — 6.94
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos not to win both halves 90.0% 88.0% — — 1.14
Gamba Osaka not to win both halves 89.3% 87.9% — — 1.14
Gamba Osaka to win both halves 10.7% 12.1% — — 8.29
Yokohama F. Marinos to win both halves 10.0% 12.0% — — 8.31
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gamba Osaka to win either half 54.9% 54.4% — — 1.84
Yokohama F. Marinos to win either half 53.8% 54.3% — — 1.84
Yokohama F. Marinos to win neither half 46.2% 45.7% — — 2.19
Gamba Osaka to win neither half 45.1% 45.6% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Yokohama F. Marinos not to win to nil 84.2% 83.1% 82.2% 1.01× 1.20
Gamba Osaka not to win to nil 83.8% 83.1% 75.0% 1.11× 1.20
Gamba Osaka to win to nil 16.2% 16.9% 25.0% 0.68× 5.92
Yokohama F. Marinos to win to nil 15.8% 16.9% 17.8% 0.95× 5.92
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.7% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Gamba Osaka by 1 19.6% 17.1% 25.0% 0.68× 5.86
Yokohama F. Marinos by 1 19.3% 17.1% 19.4% 0.88× 5.86
Gamba Osaka by 2 11.6% 11.8% 12.0% 0.98× 8.51
Yokohama F. Marinos by 2 11.2% 11.8% 6.1% 1.93× 8.51
Gamba Osaka by 3+ 8.0% 7.2% 6.3% 1.15× 13.91
Yokohama F. Marinos by 3+ 7.6% 7.2% 5.9% 1.21× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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