Gazovik Orenburg v Rodina Moscow — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 29 November 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627
RUS-Premier League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.4%
- 1-0 9.3%
- 2-1 9.2%
- 0-0 8.3%
- 2-0 8.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | Under 2.5 | 50.2% |
| BTTS yes | 54.6% | BTTS no | 45.4% |
| Gazovik Orenburg 1+ | 78.2% | Gazovik Orenburg 2+ | 45.0% |
| Rodina Moscow 1+ | 68.1% | Rodina Moscow 2+ | 31.7% |
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.14. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Gazovik Orenburg.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Rodina Moscow have only 5 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Gazovik Orenburg have an estimated 44.7% win probability, against 28.1% for the draw and 27.2% for Rodina Moscow. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for Gazovik Orenburg and 1.14 for Rodina Moscow.
Why Gazovik Orenburg
Nothing in the data singles out Gazovik Orenburg.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.1%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Rodina Moscow can win
Rodina Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1467 Elo against 1402.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Gazovik Orenburg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rodina Moscow, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Gazovik Orenburg: 38% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rodina Moscow: 44% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Gazovik Orenburg are the model's most likely outcome at 44.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%. Confidence 64/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.52–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.59–1.35 | 1-1 13% | 56% | 60% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.