Genoa v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 8
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 6
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.80
Goals − xG
-0.67 – +0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
26.9%
Draw
25.2%
AC Milan win
47.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLLDLWL last 10
scored 6
from 9.7 xG
conceded 16
from 14.5 xG
AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWWDDWDW last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.17–1.44 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 53% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 1.67 xGAC Milan 1.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
AC Milan attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 17' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Genoa |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Amorim |
| 26' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 28' |
 AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ardon Jashari |
| 38' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 49' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 58' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zachary Athekame |
| 66' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Genoa |
Alessandro Marcandalli | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 77' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Amorim |
| 80' |
AC Milan |
Zachary Athekame | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christian Pulisic |
| 82' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 86' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.67 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 95' |
AC Milan |
Davide Bartesaghi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samuele Ricci |
| 97' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 99' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Athekame DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ardon Jashari MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Santiago Giménez FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| Christian Pulisic Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 0.52 |
| Koni de Winter Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Vásquez DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Vitinha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Alex Amorim MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| Sebastian Otoa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aarón Martín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |