Genoa v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.72 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.56 – +1.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
14.7%
Draw
26.9%
Atalanta win
58.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.76–1.71 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.87–1.89 | 0-1 12% | 52% | 49% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 1.44 xGAtalanta 1.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 3' |
 Atalanta |
Daniel Maldini | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 5' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 9' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 10' |
Atalanta |
Sulemana | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 15' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 19' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isak Hien |
| 32' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Daniel Maldini | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 36' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Goal | Aarón Martín |
| 42' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 43' |
Genoa |
Mattia Bani | 0.46 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Atalanta |
Sulemana | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matteo Ruggeri |
| 48' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sulemana |
| 52' |
Genoa |
Mattia Bani | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 57' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Stefano Sabelli |
| 62' |
Atalanta |
Daniel Maldini | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marten de Roon |
| 79' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Caleb Ekuban |
| 83' |
Genoa |
Morten Thorsby | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Patrizio Masini |
| 86' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 88' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 91' |
Genoa |
Mattia Bani | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Bani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Aarón Martín DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| Patrizio Masini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 79 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Vitinha FWL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Milan Badelj MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Stefano Sabelli DR | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Koni de Winter Sub | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alessandro Zanoli Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jean Onana Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Morten Thorsby Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Retegui FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 1.39 |
| Lazar Samardzic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| Marten de Roon DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Rui Patrício GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Odilon Kossounou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Sulemana MC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Daniel Maldini AMC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.24 | 0.85 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Marco Palestra DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.32 |
| Matteo Ruggeri DML | 58 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Davide Zappacosta Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Charles De Ketelaere Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| Éderson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |