Genoa v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 16
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 12
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.93
Goals − xG
-0.97 – -0.77
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
24.4%
Draw
29.0%
Atalanta win
46.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.56 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–2.07 | 1-2 10% | 64% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 0.97 xGAtalanta 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 5' |
 Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 14' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 16' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 18' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 32' |
Atalanta |
Yunus Musah | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Caleb Ekuban |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Sead Kolasinac | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 45' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Brooke Norton-Cuffy |
| 47' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.51 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 51' |
Atalanta |
Daniel Maldini | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 66' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 70' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 86' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 89' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 93' |
Atalanta |
Isak Hien | 0.38 | From Corner | — | Goal | Nicola Zalewski |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sebastian Otoa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Mikael Ellertsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Daniele Sommariva Sub | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Vitinha FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Caleb Ekuban FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| Lorenzo Colombo Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Thorsby Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| Yunus Musah MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marten de Roon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Éderson MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.29 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| Daniel Maldini AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Nicola Zalewski Sub | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.50 | 0.14 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |